Torn Hammy = Mock Draft Time!

Well, when you have a torn hamstring, you're usually pretty limited in what you can do. So my typical day this summer includes: reading dat Bible and spending time with God, NBA 2k, eating, sleeping, icing, anti-inflammatory drugs, getting surprise visits from girlfriend, and upper body lifting. And, of course, fantasy football mock drafts.

Like many other mock drafts, I wish this could be my real team. It's loaded at RB/WR. Absolutely loaded. And when you get Tony Romo in the 9th round, you can't help but feel giddy. If only people didn't take RGIII and Matt Stafford right before me as their backups! Then I would feel more like this.
So here's my roster:
QB: Tony Romo
RB: C.J. Spiller, Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush, Jacquizz Rodgers
WR: Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, Eric Decker
TE: Owen Daniels
K: Doesn't Matter
DST: Packers

So here's how the draft went. I would quantify the draft as having three idiotic boneheads because they took kickers in a round other than the last. But that's just my opinion.

And other than that, have a look. See my key points right after the draft summary. Feel free to comment and let me know how you think I did. Did I blow a pick? Did I wait too long on a quarterback? Am I hyping up this draft too much? Am I being unreasonable with money picks and terrible picks?

Red = Terrible pick (mostly based on value)
Green = Money pick
Blue = Questionable pick
Bold = My picks

Round: 1 (1) Team Crawford - Adrian Peterson RB (2) Team Deckelman - Arian Foster RB (3) Team Cacciotti - Doug Martin RB (4) Team Rodriguez - Marshawn Lynch RB (5) Team Jones - Ray Rice RB (6) Team lamborn - Jamaal Charles RB ** (7) Team amodio - C.J. Spiller RB (8) Team Easley - Trent Richardson RB (9) Team Palasky - Calvin Johnson WR (10) Team thomas - LeSean McCoy RB	Round: 2 (11) Team thomas - Steven Jackson RB (12) Team Palasky - A.J. Green WR (13) Team Easley - Dez Bryant WR ** (14) Team amodio - Alfred Morris RB (15) Team lamborn - Aaron Rodgers QB (16) Team Jones - Drew Brees QB (17) Team Rodriguez - Matt Forte RB (18) Team Cacciotti - Brandon Marshall WR (19) Team Deckelman - Frank Gore RB (20) Team Crawford - Peyton Manning QB
Round: 3 (21) Team Crawford - Demaryius Thomas WR (22) Team Deckelman - Julio Jones WR (23) Team Cacciotti - Chris Johnson RB (24) Team Rodriguez - Tom Brady QB (25) Team Jones - Maurice Jones-Drew RB (26) Team lamborn - Stevan Ridley RB ** (27) Team amodio - Percy Harvin WR (28) Team Easley - Cam Newton QB (29) Team Palasky - Jimmy Graham TE (30) Team thomas - David Wilson RB	Round: 4 (31) Team thomas - Darren McFadden RB (32) Team Palasky - Larry Fitzgerald WR (33) Team Easley - Darren Sproles RB ** (34) Team amodio - Randall Cobb WR (35) Team lamborn - Roddy White WR (36) Team Jones - Montee Ball RB (37) Team Rodriguez - Andre Johnson WR (38) Team Cacciotti - Vincent Jackson WR (39) Team Deckelman - Wes Welker WR (40) Team Crawford - Victor Cruz WR
Round: 5 (41) Team Crawford - Rob Gronkowski TE (42) Team Deckelman - Colin Kaepernick QB (43) Team Cacciotti - DeMarco Murray RB (44) Team Rodriguez - Marques Colston WR (45) Team Jones - Aaron Hernandez TE (46) Team lamborn - Reggie Wayne WR ** (47) Team amodio - Reggie Bush RB (48) Team Easley - Danny Amendola WR (49) Team Palasky - Vick Ballard RB (50) Team thomas - Mike Wallace WR	Round: 6 (51) Team thomas - Dwayne Bowe WR (52) Team Palasky - Eddie Lacy RB (53) Team Easley - Chris Ivory RB ** (54) Team amodio - Hakeem Nicks WR (55) Team lamborn - Ryan Mathews RB (56) Team Jones - Jordy Nelson WR (57) Team Rodriguez - Antonio Brown WR (58) Team Cacciotti - Matt Ryan QB (59) Team Deckelman - Vernon Davis TE (60) Team Crawford - Michael Crabtree WR
Round: 7 (61) Team Crawford - Russell Wilson QB (62) Team Deckelman - Lamar Miller RB (63) Team Cacciotti - Jason Witten TE (64) Team Rodriguez - Tony Gonzalez TE (65) Team Jones - Torrey Smith WR (66) Team lamborn - Steve Smith WR ** (67) Team amodio - Eric Decker WR (68) Team Easley - Isaiah Pead RB (69) Team Palasky - BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB (70) Team thomas - Tavon Austin WR	Round: 8 (71) Team thomas - T.Y. Hilton WR (72) Team Palasky - Le'Veon Bell RB (73) Team Easley - Josh Gordon WR ** (74) Team amodio - Greg Jennings WR (75) Team lamborn - Giovani Bernard RB (76) Team Jones - DeSean Jackson WR (77) Team Rodriguez - Pierre Garcon WR (78) Team Cacciotti - 49ers D/ST D/ST (79) Team Deckelman - Seahawks D/ST D/ST (80) Team Crawford - Rashard Mendenhall RB
Round: 9 (81) Team Crawford - Robert Griffin III QB (82) Team Deckelman - Andrew Luck QB (83) Team Cacciotti - Steve Johnson WR (84) Team Rodriguez - Johnathan Franklin RB (85) Team Jones - Matthew Stafford QB (86) Team lamborn - Dennis Pitta TE ** (87) Team amodio - Tony Romo QB (88) Team Easley - Kenny Britt WR (89) Team Palasky - Danario Alexander WR (90) Team thomas - Ryan Williams RB	Round: 10 (91) Team thomas - Carson Palmer QB (92) Team Palasky - Eli Manning QB (93) Team Easley - Shane Vereen RB ** (94) Team amodio - Andre Brown RB (95) Team lamborn - James Jones WR (96) Team Jones - Bryce Brown RB (97) Team Rodriguez - Miles Austin WR (98) Team Cacciotti - Mark Ingram RB (99) Team Deckelman - Cecil Shorts WR (100) Team Crawford - Jonathan Stewart RB
Round: 11 (101) Team Crawford - Kyle Rudolph TE (102) Team Deckelman - Greg Olsen TE (103) Team Cacciotti - Anquan Boldin WR (104) Team Rodriguez - Mikel Leshoure RB (105) Team Jones - Texans D/ST D/ST (106) Team lamborn - Mike Williams WR ** (107) Team amodio - Owen Daniels TE (108) Team Easley - Jared Cook TE (109) Team Palasky - Bears D/ST D/ST (110) Team thomas - Jermichael Finley TE	Round: 12 (111) Team thomas - Lance Moore WR (112) Team Palasky - Sidney Rice WR (113) Team Easley - Michael Vick QB ** (114) Team amodio - Jeremy Maclin WR (115) Team lamborn - Ben Roethlisberger QB (116) Team Jones - Ben Tate RB (117) Team Rodriguez - Broncos D/ST D/ST (118) Team Cacciotti - Stephen Gostkowski K (119) Team Deckelman - Bernard Pierce RB (120) Team Crawford - Ahmad Bradshaw RB
Round: 13 (121) Team Crawford - Antonio Gates TE (122) Team Deckelman - Blair Walsh K (123) Team Cacciotti - Brandon Myers TE (124) Team Rodriguez - Fred Jackson RB (125) Team Jones - LaMichael James RB (126) Team lamborn - Emmanuel Sanders WR ** (127) Team amodio - Denarius Moore WR (128) Team Easley - Joe Flacco QB (129) Team Palasky - DeAngelo Williams RB (130) Team thomas - Chris Givens WR	Round: 14 (131) Team thomas - Brandon Lloyd WR (132) Team Palasky - Michael Bush RB (133) Team Easley - Kendall Wright WR ** (134) Team amodio - Jacquizz Rodgers RB (135) Team lamborn - Bengals D/ST D/ST (136) Team Jones - Matt Prater K (137) Team Rodriguez - DeAndre Hopkins WR (138) Team Cacciotti - Andy Dalton QB (139) Team Deckelman - Alshon Jeffery WR (140) Team Crawford - Patriots D/ST D/ST
Round: 15 (141) Team Crawford - Mike Goodson RB (142) Team Deckelman - Martellus Bennett TE (143) Team Cacciotti - Daryl Richardson RB (144) Team Rodriguez - Sam Bradford QB (145) Team Jones - Shonn Greene RB (146) Team lamborn - Malcom Floyd WR ** (147) Team amodio - Packers D/ST D/ST (148) Team Easley - Steelers D/ST D/ST (149) Team Palasky - Brian Hartline WR (150) Team thomas - Browns D/ST D/ST	Round: 16 (151) Team thomas - Matt Bryant K (152) Team Palasky - Justin Tucker K (153) Team Easley - Phil Dawson K ** (154) Team amodio - Sebastian Janikowski K (155) Team lamborn - Randy Bullock K (156) Team Jones - Kenjon Barner RB (157) Team Rodriguez - Josh Brown K (158) Team Cacciotti - Cowboys D/ST D/ST (159) Team Deckelman - Andre Roberts WR (160) Team Crawford - David Akers K

• Clearly, you can wait on quarterbacks. But take a look at teams Amodio, Thomas, and Palasky who wisely waited. In a typical draft, they would've had their choice of Luck, Stafford, Romo, or RGIII. Unfortunately, a couple teams  for some reason took backup QB's leaving Amodio with the last of the big 12. So here's the main takeaway: You can wait till the 9th round to get a darn good starting quarterback. But don't push it or you may end up with Eli Manning.
• Any quarterback after the 5th round to me is money. Any top 12 QB in the 7-9th rounds? Big money. As I said before, this year is DEEP.
• People still think there is a reason to take a kicker before the last round. It is beyond me why that belief is still in people's heads.
• Two defenses went in round eight. Too early. Two defenses went in round 11. Just right.
• Besides the top 10-12 running backs, it really is a crapshoot. Just ask the guy who got Vick Ballard and Eddie Lacy as his starting running backs. I'm going to have nightmares just thinking about that.
• You basically need two running backs in the first three rounds or that guy could be you. Even the guy with Adrian Peterson. Say hello to Rashard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart as your compliment.
• After getting Spiller and Morris I was going to take Ridley if he fell. Can't have too many running backs this year. Unfortunately, he was taken one spot ahead.
• Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have an argument to go in the second round. Peyton Manning nor any other quarterback does.
• Montee Ball in the fourth round? I guess...
• Not only are the QBs deep but so are the WRs. Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, and Eric Decker in rounds 6,7 and 8? Gimme dat. They'll fit nicely behind my two top 10 wideouts Harvin and Cobb.
• I expect RGIII's draft status to change drastically as more is found out about his injury status.
• "Maybe this is the year Jermichael Finley breaks out," said countless people the last three years. Perhaps now people are finally saying, "Maybe this is the year Finley finally goes undrafted." Well, round 11. Still not a worthwhile pick.
• No Tebow? But he seems guaranteed to put up at least one touchdown with the Montreal Alouettes.
• And where's JaMarcus? I heard he "slimmed down" to "just" 265 pounds.

2013 Quarterback Overview

While last year had a plethora of quarterbacks going in the first two rounds, this upcoming season should be vastly different. The league has become extremely pass happy and non-committee running backs are a dime a dozen. In large part, the running back position has the steepest drop-off after the elites and is hands down the shallowest of any position. And this past year, 23 quarterbacks scored more than 200 points (in 6 point per passing touchdown leagues), the most ever to do so. It is ridiculously deep at the quarterback position this year.

The quarterback position is so deep that I would be reluctant to take a quarterback in the first twenty picks! Although I can guarantee that someone will take Aaron Rodgers in the first round, it shouldn't happen. To give you an idea of what can happen, Matt Ryan has been going as late as the ninth round in the mock drafts. So please, fellow fantasy footballers, WAIT! Be patient. Let the draft come to you. Don't start a quarterback run. And if there is one, WAIT! Just because Cam Newton is available in the fourth round does not mean he's the best pick available given the scarcity of running backs. On the other hand, if there is a running back run, you better snatch one up otherwise you might be looking at a tandem of Chris Ivory and Reggie Bush. Yuck.

And to those in my league (which I won) last year who started taking backups in the 8th round. WAIT. Please. Freaking. Wait. Last year, by the time people were taking unnecessary backups, I was taking my starter, Robert Griffin III. Obviously in hindsight it was a great pick. But at the time, it was a scrambling, never-racking pick. And while last year there was a risk to wait that long, this year you can be making bank by waiting that long.

Let me re-iterate: This is the year to wait. If you don't get Aaron Rodgers, so what? Get Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, even Colin Kaepernick after the fifth round. Tony Romo is the 12th ranked quarterback in ESPN and my rankings. In a 10 team league that means he is a backup! Wait. Heck, in a twelve team league I bet you can get Matt Stafford as your backup if want to be "that guy".

Here's another thing. You hardly need a backup quarterback unless you draft Griffin (the ACL concerns). With guys like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, etc all outside the top 12, you don't need to waste a roster spot when you can just pick one up later. Let me just sternly say: If you draft either Rodgers, Brady, Brees, or Manning and then proceed to draft a backup QB, you are most certainly wasting a roster spot.

So finally, WAIT. WAIT on a quarterback likes it's your girlfriend trying on every dress imaginable. You know she'll find the right one eventually, even if it takes three hours.

Do some mock drafts to see where your favorite quarterbacks are going. Suppose you like Russell Wilson higher than most. Don't rush to take him. Do a mock draft and see if you can get him in the sixth or seventh round. Or maybe you like Matt Stafford to bounce back or maybe you're just fine with any of the QB's from the five to twelve range. Then try mock drafts and push it to see how long you can wait on a number one quarterback. And if you are in a "standard" 4 point per passing touchdown league, really, really wait. If it is a 6 point per any touchdown league, still wait (but perhaps not quite as long).

And alas. Here are my consistency rankings based on last years stats. You can find two seasons ago here. Keep in mind the percentage on the right is for percentage of "Great" games. So for instance, Rodgers was great in 9 out of 16 or 56.25% of his games last season. But it's important to note that he was still a worthy start in 75% of his games (add the 3 "Start" games to the 9 "Great" or better games).

	Freak	Stud	Great	Start	Dud
Player (last years rank)	35	25	20	15	<15	Inj/Sit	% Great
Rodgers (2)	4	5	0	3	4	0	56.25
Brees (1)	6	4	2	3	1	0	75.00
P. Manning (4)	0	10	2	2	2	0	75.00
Brady (3)	4	2	6	3	1	0	75.00
Ryan (5)	2	5	3	2	4	0	62.50
Newton (6)	2	3	4	2	5	0	56.25
Griffin III (7)	3	4	1	4	3	1	53.33
Wilson (9)*	1	5	2	2	6	0	50.00
Romo (8)	1	4	3	4	4	0	50.00
Stafford (11)	1	2	4	5	4	0	43.75
Kaepernick (25)	0	1	3	3	1	8	50.00
Luck (10)	1	3	2	7	3	0	37.50
E. Manning (14)	1	4	1	3	7	0	37.50
Roethlisberger (16)	1	2	3	5	2	3	46.15
Vick (27)	0	1	1	5	3	6	20.00
Flacco (15)	1	1	5	2	7	0	43.75
Rivers (20)	0	3	1	7	5	0	25.00
Dalton (12)	0	7	0	2	7	0	43.75
Bradford (18)	0	2	2	4	8	0	25.00
Freeman (13)	1	3	3	3	6	0	43.75
Palmer (19)	1	0	5	5	4	1	40.00
Cutler (23)	0	1	4	2	8	1	33.33
Tannehill (24)	0	1	3	3	9	0	25.00
Smith (29)	0	2	2	0	5	7	44.44
Tebow (CFL)	It's	Tee	Bow	Time	in	Can	ada?

All stats here based on 1 point per 25 passing yards, 1 point per 10 rushing yards, and 6 points per touchdown.

*Five of Wilson's six duds came in the first seven games. He finished the year with just one dud in his last nine games.

So here are some main takeaways from last years stats (also in comparison to two years ago). And here are last year's rankings for you to compare.

• Aaron Rodgers "Great" percentage is a far cry from last years perfect percentage. But even with the lowest percentage among the top five, he finished in the top 3 for the fifth year in a row.
• Over the past two years, Drew Brees has been the most consistent quarterback. And now Sean Payton is coming back. Sheesh.
• How right was I about Eli Manning? Very right. Expect more inconsistent play from him. For the past two years, he has had the most duds among the top 15 quarterbacks. He's not worthy of a starting spot in any league with 12 or fewer owners.
• Of my top ten, Peyton Manning was the only one who did not register a freak game. I expect that to change this year with the best receiving corps in football. Sorry to my Packers fans out there.
• There were 30 freak games this past season in comparison to just 18 last year. Can I emphasize what a passing league this has become? And just how deep the quarterback pool is this year.
• Andy Dalton tied for fourth in games with 25 or more points. He was also tied for fourth in games with 15 or less points.
• While Luck does not have a high percentage of great games, he was startable in 13 of 16 games.

Now. With all this in mind, get it! Be patient. Have fun. And stock up on running backs and wide receivers while your opponents take quarterbacks way too early.

How Did I Do? Recap of My Teams and Predictions

Well, it's taken me long enough to get a post out there, but as you all know, blogging during the school year is quite difficult. When break came, I went to the Urbana Missions Conference where God did some mind-blowing work for some 16,000 people. Ask me about it sometime. And then I got the flu. I guess I should have listened to my parents and got that free flu shot at school . . .

But at last, here I am. And I bet many of you are wondering: How do these self-proclaimed fantasy experts do? Well, in my case the answer is pretty well. The thing with fantasy football as people know, is that there is so much variability that even newcomers can win leagues their first year. And in comparison to fantasy baseball, it is much harder to predict seasonal outcomes. For instance, a player in baseball will most likely hit around their mean numbers no matter what team they are on or how good that team is. But in football, a good quarterback who loses his left tackle or top wide receiver has much less certainty to match their average output. So with fantasy football predictions, one's educated guesses could in fact be just as valuable as my sister's predictions based on the best looking players.

So anyways, this year I participated in 8 leagues. First time in a while that I was not in double digit leagues! I had only one team tank with a 4-9 record, but the other seven made the playoffs. So seven out of eight is not too bad I must say. In fact, I'd say that's pretty darn beastly. And in those seven playoffs appearances, I made four championships. Of those four championships, I was crowned CHAMPION with a championship belt in ALL four leagues. So gimme dat!

The main reason for most of my success came this year through drafting Doug Martin in four leagues (I wanted him in every league) and Reggie Wayne in three. RGIII also saved three of my leagues and put me over the top. My best team? Well, Mr. Rodgers' Neighborhood featuring a lineup that put me in the 98th percentile in official ESPN leagues. My lineup had Aaron Rodgers, Martin, Adrian Peterson, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, and Jimmy Graham. How's that for a championship team?

So as a recap of players I told you to target or to avoid in the draft, here are my biggest hits and misses.

HITS on players to draft

Fantasy Hamster.

Doug Martin (Average Draft Position 65.7, finished 2nd among RB's): If you drafted him, you more than likely made the playoffs in your league. You're welcome. And thank you, Muscle Hamster.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis (ADP 56.4, finished 19th among RB's): He started the year slow but closed out with a strong second half, helping those who stuck with him this year. He's exactly what I thought he would be, a serviceable top 20 back.

Reggie Wayne (ADP 93.8, finished 15th among WR's): Many thought his career was done. I didn't. Andrew Luck helped revive Wayne and help him become a solid wide receiver all year. And if you had him in PPR leagues, you more than likely did very well with getting Wayne in the ninth round.

Eric Decker (ADP 77.7, finished 8th among WR's): Remember when my column on Peyton Manning's impact right when he went to Denver? Yeah, this is his impact.

Demaryius Thomas (ADP 59.8, finished 5th among WR's): And him, too.

Randall Cobb (ADP 130.0, finished 17th among WR's): Needed a very late round gem. This was your guy.

Julio Jones (ADP 26.3, finished 9th among WR's): A bit inconsistent but still a stud. Will be a top five pick next year for sure.

AJ Green (ADP 30.4, finished 4th among WR's): He was a rock of consistency as he had either 100 yards or a touchdown in 12 games. And his stretch of nine straight games with at least one touchdown? Gimme dat.

Brandon Marshall (ADP 34.2, finished 2nd among WR's): Those who though he was too risky missed out on a pretty safe, pretty lights out pick. I also feel like I should mention something about Viagra here . . . But Marshall lit it up this year as Cutler looked his way an astonishing 192 times. After the season ended, it was reported Jay Cutler actually did not know the team had other receivers. He merely though Devin Hester was lost and confused while looking for the punt return unit.


HITS on players to avoid

Maurice Jones Drew (ADP 10.7, finished 50th among RB's): Holding out for that long made him far too risky of a pick. And an injury proved that. Otherwise, he did play just okay when healthy.

Fred Jackson (ADP 46.3, finished 39th among RB's): The emergence of CJ Spiller and health concerns made Jackson a non-factor this year.

Willis McGahee (ADP 52.5, finished 24th among RB's): McGahee played very well for 11 games. But 11 games is not enough to be considered worth it.

Panther's Running Backs (ADP 68.4, 90.4, finished 52, 23rd among RB's): DeAngelo Williams literally did nothing till the last four weeks while Jonathon Stewart made virtually no impact. Both were a waste of a roster spot. And Mike Tolbert did some nice touchdown stealing.

Mike Wallace (ADP 26.1, finished 25th among WR's): He was far too inconsistent and definitely not worth a second round pick.

Eli Manning (ADP 32.0, finished 15th among QB's): This is one of my "I told you" picks. I hope you listened to me here.

Matt Stafford (ADP 16.5, finished 10th among QB's): At least he finished in the top ten but just barely! Perhaps the biggest bust of the draft considering he was going in the first round of some drafts.

Darren McFadden (ADP 25.8, finished 28th among RB's): Same ol' same ol'.

Vernon Davis (ADP 50.0, finished 15h among TE's): So much for the year of the tight end. He started out with three strong games then completely fell off the map.

I think I see Jermichael Finley in there!

Jermichael Finley (ADP 62.1, finished 17th among TE's): Utter waste of a roster space. Garbage. Matthew Berry made the best statement on this guy by putting him in his "HATE" column every week. Well done Berry, well done.

Demarco Murray (ADP 19.4, finished 25th among RB's): See McFadden.

Misses on players to draft

Antonio Brown (ADP 73.4, finished 43rd among WR's): One of my big sleepers, Brown failed to capitalize on Mike Wallace's failures.

Philip Rivers (ADP 69.1, finished 21 among QB's): Oh boy. That was bad.

Jacob Tamme (ADP 118.6, finished 26th among TE's): C'mon, man. You were supposed to be the next Dallas Clark.

Michael Vick (ADP 42.2, finished 27th among QB's): There certainly was potential there. . . for injuries galore.

Ryan Mathews (ADP 37.0, finished 31st among RB's): First I though he was being over-drafted badly. Then he got hurt. So I tried to claim he'd be a value at his new average draft position. Turns out injuries do not make for better fantasy players. So . . .

Tim Tebow (ADP undrafted, finished around 456 or so among all players): Well, I clearly did not advocate him as a stud or anything. Just a viable option if he got to start. Darn you, Rex Ryan . . .

Misses on players to avoid

Cam Newton (ADP 21.7, finished 4th among QB's): Huh. Turns out he finished about exactly where his draft position indicated. You fooled me, Cam, for two years in a row. Argh.

Vincent Jackson (ADP 57.4, finished 6th among WR's): I wrote about him multiple times. How he would never be a number one option. I ranted how he never had more than 68 catches, 1,167 yards, or 9 touchdowns. Well, he put together career highs in receptions, yards, and was just one touchdown short.

Peyton Manning (ADP 39.5, finished 5th among QB's): I told you all his receivers would benefit from him. But I still considered him far too risky of a pick. Glad I never said the same about Adrian Peterson at least . . .

Calvin Johnson (ADP 7.5, finished stinkin' numero uno among WR's): So I never took him in a league this year. Madden curse. Stafford drop off. Deep wide receiver pool. Oh well, things still worked out for me but Calvin destroyed any Madden curse thoughts and lit it up in a historical, unforgettable season. For all those who are wondering, I never called him a potential bust, just a player to avoid.

Marshawn Lynch (ADP 15.3, finished 4th among RB's): Beast Mode, Skittles, whatever you call him came to play. He only had less than 80 rushing yards twice and was a mark of consistency. He will be a potential top five overall pick next season. And please watch this episode that Sports Science did on him. Slow motion pouring of Skittles into his mouth? Priceless.

Love/Hate Players: 2012

Every year I make a list of players I love and absolutely would want on the majority of my fantasy teams. I also make a list of players I hate. Well, hate is a strong word, but I really really don't like those players. These are players I under almost any circumstance will not draft. So unless Maurice Jones-Drew slips to the late second round, I would not pick him. Knowing players you want and where you can get them is key. For instance, finding a late gem potentially like Antonio Brown has been incredibly hard to predict. In some leagues, he goes higher than Mike Wallace, while in most you can get him somewhere in the seventh round. So while knowing players average draft position (ADP) is good, every draft is different and can throw you off. That is why I always have an idea of my draft position (MDP) to know how early I would select a guy like Brown or Doug Martin without over-drafting or missing out completely.

(Warning, personal life details ahead!) 
Speaking of love, I am back on campus at the University of Illinois. The college life is great. And I'm not talking about the typical college life (despite the fact UofI ranks fourth among party schools). I'm talking about intramural sports, new and authentic relationships, and telling people about Jesus. I mean, a God who loves us unconditionally and wants to repair the brokenness of us and this world? Gimme dat! I also love screaming at our underachieving football team, owning in NBA 2K, and getting krunk on sparkling grape juice. And then there's the usual love of Aaron Rodgers, Timmy Tebow, jamming to T-Swizzle, and oh, that girl Laura I'm dating. I love her lots. But enough of my sappiness, on to the hate.

Well, I try not to actually hate people (I'm not always the best at it). But I do hate some things like injustice, the porn industry, and the fact that Mike Wallace and Eli Manning are still being drafted far too high. Watching Illini sports does not quite bring up hate sentiments, just the usual frustration, anger, and rage. I also cannot stand it when Christians bring a bad name to Christians. Something as simple as the Chick-Fil-A day. How does that show our love to the LGBT community? Why aren't we building friendships and relationships with them like Jesus would? So I apologize to all those who feel like Christians are judgmental and hateful. While we do not agree with some peoples' choices, that does not mean we cannot be friends and respectfully disagree with some topics, like any normal friendship. Phew. One other thing I hate is having Jay Cutler and RGIII as a QB tandem in a league. When someone has Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady and thinks they need Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger as backups instead of a Donald Brown... I really do hate that. Thanks. I'd love to have Cutler and a rookie quarterback. The first and probably only time I could be rooting for the Bears to do well. Similarly, I also hate Jay Cutler's pouty face. Wait, maybe I love it. Because I sure get to see it a lot!

So players that I love are players that I think bring great value for their draft position and well as the outlook for the season. It doesn't mean I think they will be a top five option, but rather that they will have great potential to outperform current expectations that their draft position indicate. So.

Here are the players I LOVE.

Doug Martin (RB, TB, ADP 81.2, MDP 47): Martin is a tremendous bargain this year and looking just as explosive as he was in college. While LeGarrette will still take away carries, I expect Martin to run away with the job. The Tampa Bay coaching staff is tired of Blount's fumble troubles and Martin has been great in training camp so far. He is a rookie so do not expect huge numbers, but I believe he will be a very solid number two back. And for being drafted in the eighth round, you cannot do too much better than him. I'd grab him as early as the fourth, although I would target him around the sixth or seventh for max value.

Ryan Mathews (RB, SD, ADP 36.2, MDP 30): For a guy who started as a borderline first rounder, I love the value Mathews brings now that he is hurt. Huh, you say? Normally drafting a hurt running back is not on the top of people's lists. But, he is a legitimate number one back and assuming he is back early in the season, he's a guy that can carry your team. Before he was hurt, I think he was over-drafted. Now with his injury that should only make him miss one or two games, he becomes a pick that I want.

Michael Vick (QB, PHI, ADP 37.9, MDP 35): Spending too early of a pick on Vick is a very bad thing. Like last year! Remember how Matthew Berry urged you to spend your first overall pick on him no matter what? Well, in theory Vick's 2010 numbers would have been monumental had he played a whole season. But nonetheless I urged viewers to not take a chance. Well, folks, this is the year to take a chance. If you can get Vick in the third or even fourth round, he could be the steal of the draft. Yes, he's very injury prone and very risky, but the benefits outweigh the risk this year. Especially with solid quarterback depth this year, Vick is a great pick if you do not take a quarterback in the first two rounds.

Julio Jones (WR, ATL, ADP 31.4, MDP 30): He's being drafted right where he should be but I simply think Jones will really break out this year. He and Roddy White will team up for one of the best wide receiver duos in the league. His potential is sky-high. Just watch this.

Jacob Tamme (TE, DEN, ADP 118.7, MDP 100): If you miss out on the elite tight ends, he or Jared Cook are both great options. This is the deepest the tight end pool has been in a while. Take advantage. And oh, he has Peyton Manning throwing to him.

Bear Pascoe (TE, NYG, Not drafted): He has got a sweet name.

Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 22.0, MDP 18): I have never drafted McFadden before for the obvious injury risk. But he, when healthy, is a top five back. In a year where he is being slightly undervalued, I would be willing to take that risk. And like Vick, if he can stay healthy, he can help you win a championship.

Donald Brown (RB, IND, ADP 96.5, MDP 80): Heck this guy is a starting running back being drafted in the ninth round. I'll take that! He looked solid at the end of last season (though his stats were padded a bit by an 80 yard touchdown run) and he's continuing to look good this year. In an offense with NFL-ready Andrew Luck, Brown could very much produce Joseph Addai-like numbers or better.

Brandon Marshall (WR, CHI, ADP 35.4, MDP 30): I think he will be a top five receiver. Normally a fairly risky option, Marshall is reuinted with Jay Cutler. His average numbers with in Denver as a starter? 102 catches, 1237 yards, and 8 touchdowns. And even in Miami his numbers were not too shabby. What's that I'm hearing? Elite. That's what. Bears player or not, he is a great option.

Eric Decker (WR, DEN, ADP 71.2, MDP 60): In an earlier article, I discussed the success of Manning's receivers. Decker is more familiar with the system and routes than Demaryius Thomas so I'll take Decker over him. He's a great late option with top-15 potential.

Greg Little (WR, CLE, ADP 141.9, MDP 120): Little is one of my bigger sleepers as he produced an impressive 61 catches and 709 yards with Colt McCoy throwing to him. Assuming Brandon Weeden is in fact an upgrade, Little may even find the endzone this year and be a productive option.

Philip Rivers (QB, SD, ADP 60.4, MDP 55): After a down year, Rivers has fallen down draft boards to be the 10th quarterback selected. I'll take that! Tremendous value and a pretty low risk pick. I'll target him in all leagues where I miss out on the first round quarterbacks. And you should too.

Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, ADP 63.3, MDP 60): He is being drafted significantly lower than some of the top tier tight ends. While he is inconsistent and injury-prone, he still has all the tools to truly become an elite option. Being drafted lower means less risk and more tight end depth means you could still take a solid backup. Take a chance on him and you will not regret it.

Antonio Brown (WR, PIT, ADP 65.8, MDP 50): My favorite Pittsburgh option this year. This guy had the second most third down catches last year and even outproduced Mike Wallace in the second half. He very quietly put up over 1,000 yards and is still going under the radar. Take him, take him, take him!

Reggie Wayne (WR, IND, ADP 98.5, MDP 85): He is no longer the young stud he was but he is not dead yet. With Luck throwing his way, I expect a big comeback season for Wayne. He has lost a step but not his hands nor his veteran presence. He should be a favorite of Luck and will rebound to fantasy relevance. Just do not expect his top-10 days anymore.

Jimmy Graham (TE, NO, ADP 21.4, MDP 18): Stud. And I think he will outproduce Gronk this year.

A.J. Green (WR, CIN, ADP 28.5, MDP 24): Like Julio Jones, Green is looking to build on his stellar rookie season. Another year under his and Andy Dalton's belt makes him look like a perennial elite receiver. There are really no concerns other than Dalton's sustainability. But hey, even when Calvin Johnson had bad quarterbacks he was a stud. I expect the same of Green no matter who is throwing to him.

Jared Cook (TE, TEN, ADP 126.6, MDP 110): Previously, I mentioned how people descibe Finley as a freak athlete for a tight end. Well, combine numbers show Finley is a baby compared to Cook. If Jake Locker can be solid, Cook will play a big role. Great sleeper and huge potential for Cook.

Steven Jackson (RB, STL, ADP 30.6, MDP 25): This guy is a tank. Rock solid. Declining slightly but still a very predictable and reliable option. Seven consecutive 1,000 yard seasons and about 50 catches each year. I'll take that!

Benjarvus Green-Ellis (RB, CIN, ADP 58.1, MDP 45): I've said enough about him in countless articles. 24 touchdowns in the past two seasons. I love his potential in Cincinnati.

Titus Young (WR, DET, ADP 117.6, MDP 110): With Megatron drawing double teams, Young gets his chance to be the number two option in Detroit. He showcased play-making ability last year with six touchdowns and he can only improve. With a healthy Stafford and hopefully Johnson not being cursed by the Madden cover, Young will be in for a very solid number three wide receiver season.

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. These are obvious but if you can Rodgers fourth or Brady sixth, then you are in fantastic shape.

Players I STRONGLY DISLIKE.

Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, JAC, ADP 9.1, MDP 15): For a guy still holding out, he is going extremely high. Remember Chris Johnson anyone? While the Jags owner claims to not be too concerned, fantasy owners should be. Jones-Drew is coming off a 380 touch season which does not bode well for this season. He will still be the focus of the offense but whenever Blaine Gabbert is your quarterback, your value might actually be hindered. If MJD slips into the second round, he could be well worth it. But first round? I think not.

Andre Johnson (WR, HOU, ADP 14.6, MDP 25): For a guy who has played just 20 games in the past two seasons, I cannot justify taking him that high. Especially when he is going before the likes of Roddy White and Wes Welker. Johnson clearly has elite potential but with Houston a run-first team now, I expect a bit of a decline even if he does manage to stay healthy.

Mike Wallace (WR, PIT, ADP 28.6, MDP 45): Yuck. He had a disappointing second half of last season then has managed to still holdout. Fact is, Antonio Brown was Big Ben's favorite target the last half of the season and Wallace is in my don't touch with a ten-foot pole category. I've mentioned him numerous times this year as a bust and I feel very strongly about it.

Eli Manning (QB, NYG, ADP 28.1, MDP 50): Another guy way overvalued. The Giants threw 60% of the time last year and Eli set a career high in yardage. Yet somehow, he only managed 29 touchdowns. Good, but not third round worthy. I'd rather have Michael Vick, Tony Romo, or Philip Rivers just to name a few. When Manning was drafted as the twelfth quarterback he was a great value. But now, I will not pick in a single league based on where he is going.

Peyton Manning (QB, DEN, ADP 43.8, MDP 55): If Manning were to slip, he could be a great bargain. His ceiling is higher than his brother's and some other quarterbacks. But his preseason struggles have me mildly concerned to go along with him playing 15 outdoor games, four neck surgeries, and a brand new team. The reward of picking him is obvious, but there is a major risk aspect.

Marshawn Lynch (RB, SEA, ADP 18.4, MDP 26): Yeah, he's young. Yeah, he is coming off an incredible second half of the season. But Skittles still raises concerns. His offensive line is shaky and one simply cannot expect another 12 touchdown season. Touchdowns are incredibly hard to predict and Lynch, who has a career yards per carry average of 3.99 is far from safe. He should not platoon with anybody which is nice, but I would still rather take a chance on Adrian Peterson then someone like Lynch.

Demarco Murray (RB, DAL, ADP 22.1, MDP 30): A young stud out of Oklahoma, Murray impressed during his time in Dallas. But that time was very short-lived. So what we have, folks, is another Darren McFadden only less proven. To make matters worse, Murray was even injury prone in college. So that does not bode well for the upcoming season. Murray essentially has three good games under his belt and well, that is it. Murray is ultra-talented and a huge injury risk. Once again, why not just take Adrian Peterson who has a higher ceiling and is clearly more proven than Murray.

Willis McGahee (RB, DEN, ADP 50.2, MDP 70): Another player I will not draft at all this season. He is bad in pass protection, a bad receiver, and 31 years old. In a Manning-led offense, McGahee's skill set just does not fit. And going from a run-heavy Tebow-led offense to Manning means much less opportunities for McGahee to shine.

Washington Running Backs (ADP 63.3 and 150.2): For all I know Terrell Davis might unretire and Mike Shanahan would give him carries. Roy Helu has rock solid potential. Heck, so does Evan Royster. But together, and coached by Shanahan, means headaches.

Shonn Greene (RB, NYJ, ADP 69.5, MDP 75): I really, really dislike this guy. For two years in a row I predicted a breakout campaign. Many agreed with me. Well, I'm sick of him. I don't want him. Goodbye my former love. Maybe I can go all Taylor Swift on you and write an angry song. It's over Shonn. And so, as I now expect after our breakup, Greene will almost surely break-out. Just wait. My forehead vein is already bulging out.

Vincent Jackson (WR, TB, ADP 57.8, MDP 70): He has never caught more than 68 passes in a season. Or double digit touchdowns. Or 1,200 yards. A guy that always seems slightly overrated, Jackson now leaves his comfort of Philip Rivers and goes to run-heavy, Josh Freeman led Tampa Bay. Things do not look good, my friends.

Victor Cruz (WR, NYG, ADP 31.8, MDP 35): I actually think he won't do too bad this year. I just think expectations are far too high. His long touchdowns from last year mean two things. One: He is a real deep threat with big play potential. And two: It will be darn hard to do it again. Keep that in mind as you draft him.

Panthers Running Backs (ADP 68.8, 81.8, 143.7): Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert. All solid, fantasy relevant players. If they weren't on the same team. And if Cam Newton was not their quarterback. Don't. Touch. 'Em. 

Stephen Gostowski (K, NE, ADP 105, MDP LAST ROUND): This is a simple concept folks. Very, very simple. Please get it right.

Jahvid Best (RB, DET, ADP not drafted, MDP not drafted): Some people are still taking him. They'll be disappointed when he is never on the field.

Sidney Rice (WR, SEA, ADP 126.7, MDP 150): Think Matt Flynn is Brett Favre? I think not. Rice's only good season came when Favre was throwing him the ball. Hmm...

Draft Prep: Rookies

Trent Richardson (RB, CLE, ADP 30.6, My draft position 40): Richardson will be the first rookie taken in the draft this year and will be the workhorse in Cleveland. He should be getting at least 20 carries a game in a Cleveland offense that should not be as terrible as recent years. And remember how Peyton Hillis had success? Well, Richardson has a chance to really shine assuming his knee problems do not take him out for too long. Richardson has looked like a beast in training camp and might be one the most hyped backs since Adrian Peterson. But with his recent surgery, I would not take Richardson until late third round or fourth.

Doug Martin (RB, TB, ADP 78.4, MDP 47): Martin has looked very explosive in camp and has already have earned himself the majority of carries over LeGarrette Blount. And for where he is being drafted, Martin has the best value of any of the rookies this year. He really has a chance to excel in the run first Tampa offense and an offense where they have lost faith in Blount. While Blount will see the goaline carries, expect Martin to make an impact everywhere else. He is moving up lots of draft boards, but I would still consider taking him as early as the fourth round.

Robert Griffin III (QB, WAS, ADP 81.7, MDP 70): Another guy moving up draft boards is none other than the immensely popular RGIII. After a phenomenal start to his preseason, RGIII looks like the real deal. Unlike Andrew Luck, Griffin has placed into a much better offense with targets like Santana Moss, Pierre Garcon, and Fred Davis. Throw in Leonard Hankerson and Roy Helu and you've got decent talent. But the hype with RGIII is really about what he can do with not only his arms, but also his legs. It would not be unwise to expect somewhere around 500 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns this season. But be careful with RGIII as all rookie quarterbacks will struggle. So have modest expectations with a high ceiling and moderately low basement.

Andrew Luck (QB, IND, ADP 125, MDP 140): Luck is the closest thing to a young Peyton Manning we have seen. But, like Manning, immediate success is far from guaranteed. The Colts' offense is still a year or two away from recovery. Luck does have Reggie Wayne, who people are acting like is dead. He's old, not dead, folks. Do not count him out completely. And he also has a two tight end system including Coby Fleener, his dependable target at Stanford. Luck is worth watching throughout the season, but is worth only a late round pick this year.

Justin Blackmon (WR, JAC, ADP 119.6, MDP 130): As talented as Blackmon is, he has put himself in a major hole this season. After holding out and missing valuable camp time, Blackmon also managed to get a DUI this July. He has not shown any pull away speed to get past coverage. And oh, he has Blaine Gabbert throwing him the ball. Gabbert, who reminds me of Sunshine from Remember the Titans, might actually be worse than Sunshine would be at his current age. Blackmon is draftable, just do not expect too much.

Reuben Randle (WR, NYG, ADP 138.5, MDP 148): He's behind Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Those are two pretty good receivers who you know will get the majority of the targets. But Randle is in a high-octane offense that loves to throw the ball. He is worth a late pick with modest potential.

Coby Fleener (TE, IND, ADP 141.4, MDP 130): His chemistry with Andrew Luck is unparalleled for a rookie tandem. Fleener will be a favorite target of Luck and actually has a decent chance to finish in the top ten. The tight end position is deep, but I would rather have Fleener than Brent Celek and Owen Daniels. He can be a nice late round pick.

Michael Floyd (WR, ARI, ADP 144.2, MDP 150): While he does get to play aside Larry Fitzgerald, there are several questions surrounding Floyd. For one, Kevin Kolb's health, and even skills, are a question mark, although it still did not stop Fitz last year. He has been slow to adjust to the game, but if he becomes the unquestioned starter opposite Fitzgerald, then look out fantasy world. But that is a fairly big if for this year. Unless his work ethic picks up, I expect a moderately low impact from his rookie season.

Kendall Wright (WR, TEN, ADP 149.2, MDP 160): There's marginal upside here with Wright. He's behind Kenny Britt and Nate Washington and should see solid time in the slot. But a rookie wide receiver who is third on the depth chart will rarely make a big fantasy impact.

Brian Quick (WR, STL, ADP 150.8, MDP 145): It seems like a long, long, long time ago since the Rams had Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Now, Quick from Appalachian State has a chance to become a favorite of Sam Bradford. If Quick can move up the depth chart, he has potential to be a solid number two fantasy receiver. Sam Bradford has not forgotten how to throw the ball and he is a good candidate for a comeback year. So look for Quick late in the draft as a solid sleeper.

Isaiah Pead (RB, STL, ADP Not drafted, MDP Not drafted): I believe Steven Jackson has one more year left in him. But Pead is up and coming and will get some carries this year. For those in dynasty leagues, Pead is a great option.

Ronnie Hillman (RB, DEN, ADP Not drafted, MDP 150): Another lesser known rookie running back, Hillman does have a chance to see significant action. I do not trust old man Willis McGahee or Knowshon Moreno and his ACL, so I like Hillman's chances to play. He is worth a late flier and has potential to be Peyton Manning's Addai.

Brandon Weeden (QB, CLE, ADP Not drafted, MDP Not drafted): The other first round quarterback presents no fantasy value this year. If you get into a situation where you are considering him, boy, do I feel sorry for you. Get out of it fast. Unlike last year when I said Cam Newton would have little fantasy value, I feel pretty confident in saying Weeden will have little fantasy value.