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Midseason Awards

2011-10-31T17:00:00.015-05:00

Fantasy MVP: Aaron Rodgers

How can he not be? Drafted as either the first or second quarterback this year, Rodgers has been the epitome of consistency. He has scored no fewer then 25 points in a game and has three games of over 30. His lowest yardage output was 297 yards, during the only game in which he threw for under 300 yards. Chances are if you own Rodgers, you have won the majority of your games. He has been lights-out week in and week out, spreading the ball to a number of Packers' players. He is the MVP, no question.
Runners up: Cam Newton, Calvin Johnson, Fred Jackson

Biggest Disappointment: Chris Johnson

This is another obvious award. CJ2K has been one of the biggest busts in recent years for a top-5 pick. DeMarco Murray, the rookie running back for Dallas, has already out rushed Chris Johnson. The holdout has seriously hurt Johnson's production, making him a less than desirable fantasy option. We know the talent and potential is still there, but no one can argue with his results and his 2.9 yards per carry. He is a bust!
Runners up: Reggie Wayne, Peyton Hillis, Philip Rivers, Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates

Biggest Surprise: Fred Jackson

Even Fred Jackson's wife was hesitant to take him. But Jackson of the Buffalo Bills is putting together a stunning season and has helped the Bills jump out to a 5-2 start. He is third among running backs in points and already has five 100 yard rushing games, two more than last season. That, along with six touchdowns and a career high in receiving yards has Jackson looking like the real deal. Drafted in the mid rounds, Jackson has proved to be one of the biggest value picks of the year, and is even in the debate for MVP. Fred Jackson is hands down the biggest surprise of the season.
Runners up: Cam Newton, Darren Sproles, Matt Forte, A.J. Green, Rob Gronkowski

Rookie of the (Mid) Year: Cam Newton

Remember before the season when I said Cam would have marginal fantasy implications? Whoops. Not only has Newton been by far the best rookie, he is currently the third best quarterback in fantasy, just behind Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. He is tied for the rookie QB record for rushing touchdowns with 7 and shows no signs of slowing down. In fact, he can still be better. If he learns from his mistakes and commits fewer turnovers, watch out. We might just have another Michael Vick on our hands.
Runners up: A.J. Green, Mark Ingram

Comeback Player: Wes Welker

After a disappointing 2010 season with just 848 receiving yards, Welker has bounced back in a big way. Despite tearing his ACL late last season, Welker has recovered and looks better than ever. He is on pace for a whopping 136 catches and over 2,000 yards. While he probably won't come close to the yardage figure, he could definitely put up 120 catches by the end of the season. He has been Brady's favorite target and leads the league with 83 targets in just 7 games. Whether you own him in a standard league or a PPR league, he has been an absolute steal and a must-start option.
Runners up: Steve Smith, Matt Stafford, Plaxico Burress, Ryan Mathews

JaMarcus Russell award: Donovan McNabb

While McNabb is nowhere near Russell's level of play, he has still been a major bust for his new team. He wasn't expected to be that good of fantasy option, but he certainly wasn't expected to be this bad either. Christian Ponder has already taken over after McNabb was a fabulous display of how not to be a quarterback. Even with Adrian Peterson taking pressure off McNabb and a weapon in Percy Harvin, McNabb play resembled that of Russell. Bummer.
Runners up: Blaine Gabbert, JaMarcus Russell, Rex Grossman's last game

Top Tight End: Jimmy Graham

Even in the crowd of talent in New Orleans, Graham has clearly separated himself from the rest of the pack. With Antonio Gates like talent, he has played like, well, Antonio Gates. He leads all tight ends in every category: catches, yards, touchdowns, and targets. With four 100 yard games, he has separated himself from the next best tight end, Rob Gronkowski by 27 points. This production spells out a four-lettered word. S.T.U.D.
Runners up: Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley

Most Under-Owned: Mark Sanchez

Besides one horrendous game against the tough Ravens' defense, Sanchez has been quite solid. He has scored at least 17 points in 6 of his 7 starts, with one -4 point outing against the Ravens. This adds up to him being the ninth best QB thus far and deserving of being owned in most leagues. On ESPN, he is owned in just 75% of leagues and that percentage should be higher. He is not a must-start by any means but is a viable option. For being in the top 10 at his position and being owned in just three quarters of leagues, Sanchez wins the most under-owned award.
Runners up: Tim Tebow, Victor Cruz, Delone Carter

Most Over-Owned: Ryan Torain

I told you all once. Here it is again. Ryan Torain is nothing but a headache. Even with Tim Hightower out for the year, Torain has proved that he is one of the most inconsistent backs in the league. And with Mike Shanahan doing his best Bill Belichick impression, Roy Helu will figure to take away some carries. Torain should not be trusted and should not be owned in 98.5% of leagues.
Runners up: Chad Ochocinco, Reggie Wayne, Mercedes Lewis

The Nate Amodio Award: Calvin Johnson

Johnson has done his best at doing the Nate Amodio. He has caught multiple touchdowns in multiple games. In just his sophomore season, Amodio caught 2 touchdowns in 40% of his games, helping his team, The Pineapple Chunkers, earn their first ever playoff berth. Calvin has even bettered Amodio with 2 TD's in 50% of his games while going scoreless in just one game. That's some "mega" production.
Runners up: Wes Welker, Pierre Garcon

What to Know for Week 7

2011-10-20T11:11:00.005-05:00

After weeks of busyness in school, I am finally back to blogging. I am very sorry to those who needed my super awesome knowledge of fantasy football. If the lack of insight the past couple weeks caused you to go winless, then I apologize. Hopefully you have managed to pull out a win or two, although it seems unlikely. Nonetheless, I am back and a lot has happened. So here is what you need to know for week 7, starting with my man Timmy Tebow.

Tim Tebow is now starting and will be a stud: He may not be that great of an actual quarterback, but for fantasy purposes he is a stud. Last year, in his three starts, he put up at least 24 fantasy points. And in just one half against San Diego this year, Tebow provided a spark and 16 fantasy points. It is not Tebow's passing that makes him a stud, but, much like Michael Vick, his running ability. Tebow compiled 38 rushing yards and 1 touchdown to go with his 1 passing touchdown against San Diego. He has that potential for every game. I would consider Tebow a top-10 option for most games from this year forward.

Brandon Lloyd will be an inconsistent option at best: At first glance, Lloyd's trade to St. Louis seems like a good thing. A young, blossoming quarterback in Sam Bradford should give Lloyd plenty of targets. But with the Rams' current struggles and multiple player injuries, Lloyd will find it tough to succeed. Reuniting with Josh McDaniels will help the transition for Lloyd, but it will still be a rocky path to finding success in St. Louis. Play Lloyd when the matchups are right and you may be able to squeeze some remaining value out of him.

Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford will both finish in the top 7 this year: Remember how the season started with 7 obvious elite quarterbacks? Well, the top 7 quarterbacks have changed thanks to Stafford's breakout season and Newton's explosion. Both are now must-start quarterbacks and can lead your team to the playoffs. Just make sure to have a solid backup, as Stafford is still injury prone and Newton is still just a young lad.

Fred Jackson and Matt Forte are two of the most under-appreciated backs: Both have put up fantastic fantasy numbers and are due for a real-life payday. Hopefully by now you have noticed that both are must-starts and two of the most consistent options. Forte has over half his team's yardage and Jackson could be in the MVP discussion. And both are proving to be great value picks from this year's draft.

Darren Sproles is startable in standard leagues: For those in PPR leagues, Sproles is one the most consistent top-10 running backs so far. But even in standard leagues, Sproles is producing well and should be started as a borderline number 2 back or a great flex option. Just don't let his solid production go to waste on your bench.

Arian Foster is far from who he was last year: Foster still has big output potential, but he is much less trustworthy this year. With numerous nagging injuries and Ben Tate receiving some carries, Foster's expectations should be tamed. Nonetheless, he is a solid number 1 back, even if he is not nearly as dominant as last year. Monitor his injury situations and hopefully he will stay healthy enough to prove his worth as a top 5 pick.

Fantasy football will bring anger sooner or later: In one of my leagues with close friends, I missed the draft and was autopicked for. Aaron Rodgers was taken, then Greg Jennings followed as the number 1 receiver! I did not have that in my pre-draft rankings but whatever. My team looked weak everywhere else but then Fred Jackson emerged to give me a powerful team. I now have over 50 points more than everyone else. And the result? I am 9th out of 10 with a 1-4-1 record. RAGE! It's fantasy football. Anything can happen.

Jordy Nelson is showing us the Super Bowl was no fluke: Currently, Nelson ranks 10th in ESPN standard scoring leagues and is proving to be one of Aaron Rodgers' favorite options. While lots of his success so far has depended on big plays, he is an advisable start for most weeks. He has clearly overtaken James Jones and Donald Driver as a favorite target and should continue to be solid down the road.

Jimmy Graham is hands-down the best tight end: Graham was a big sleeper for me this year mainly because of his Antonio Gates-like potential. Indeed, Graham has blossomed into a stud tight end. His soft hands and ridiculous athleticism have made him a favorite in the crowded receiving corps of New Orleans. Graham has been the most consistent and highest scoring tight end this year. Continue to start him with no hesitation.

Girls can play fantasy football, too. Who'd a thunk?: My sister joined two leagues this year and is 4-2 and 2-4. Her 2-4 team is loaded with talent, thanks to my drafting help. Unfortunately, she has been stuck with unlucky losses. She drafted her 4-2 team without my guidance. She took Antonio Gates in the third round, took a kicker and defense too early, and has a better record. It's fantasy football. Anything can happen. And in another league, a female friend of mine took her boy Sam Bradford in round 2 and then proceeded to beat our tall, lanky ginger friend in an epic upset. His team was stacked; she took Bradford in round 2. It's fantasy football. Anything can happen.

Oh, and check out this clip about women and fantasy football, it may be worth your time.
http://www.wpix.com/videobeta/2d2ed7df-b24b-47a1-a31b-3c01aea3faf9/News/Men-not-the-only-ones-playing-fantasy-football

What We Learned from Week 4

2011-10-04T11:23:00.003-05:00

Mike Shanahan is the new Bill Belichick: After a hot start for running back Tim Hightower, expectations were high for his matchup against the lowly Rams. Instead, Coach Shanahan pulled a Belichick and gave the bulk of the carries to Ryan Torain. What happened? Torain had 135 yards and a touchdown. Shanahan said that Hightower looked banged up in practice and proceeded to have Torain play the most. What we have learned is that Ryan Torain will now be the provider of countless headaches for fantasy owners.

Wes Welker is a monster: Tom Brady continues to hit Welker at a ridiculous rate this season. He targeted Welker 14 times this week resulting in 9 catches, 158 yards, and 1 touchdown. In PPR leagues, Welker is an absolute monster. In standard scoring? Well, he is still a monster.

Cam Newton should be owned in ALL leagues: Not only that, he should be started in many leagues. After his first two games, many thought Cam would cool down. On the contrary, he has lit up the scoreboard. And with two of his stellar games coming against the Bears and the Packers defense, Cam is the real thing. Rather than running the Panthers' offense through DeAngelo Williams or Jonathon Stewart, the team has given the reins to Cam Newton. He has thrown on average 41 times per game and there are no signs of that stopping. Unless you own Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, Cam is definitely a viable starting option.

Steve Smith really is back: Smith is second in the NFL in total yards and third in yards per catch. He is the clear favorite of Cam Newton and now has 150 yards in three of his four games. He is a must-start and is backing up owners who took a shot drafting him. Look out.

Julio Jones has already emerged: Jones was not expected to make an impact until later this season. Instead, he has become a key component of the Falcons offense. He was targeted 17 times this week, leading the NFL, and produced 11 catches for 127 yards. He will be a solid start for the remainder of the season and a great flex option. Don't buy the hype? Just check this out.

Eric Decker is not a one week wonder: Decker was a deep sleeper of mine and has already done more than expected. He has developed great chemistry with Kyle Orton and is 10th in the NFL with 36 targets. Decker should be monitored for the rest of the season as he could put up stats similar Santana Moss. With Denver constantly trailing, they will be forced to pass a lot, helping Decker's cause. But if Tim Tebow ever takes over, watch out for all Broncos receivers. They will all see a dip in production.

The game is changing and running back value is slipping: Quarterbacks and wider receivers are absolutely dominating the game as the league is clearly trending towards a pass heavy league. A successful running back game has turned into 80 yards and maybe a touchdown. You don't need a team with 3 solid running backs to win anymore, just running backs good enough to get by. It is the QB's and WR's that will dictate your overall success this season. And next season, I suspect we will see more quarterbacks than ever in the first round.

Chris Johnson isn't completely dead, just half dead: Finally, finally did he do something! After failing to eclipse 100 yards for the first three games combined, CJ2K finally broke the 100-yard mark in a game. And it was against the lowly Cleveland Browns. Johnson has thus far been a bust, but will turn the corner sooner or later. Don't give up on him yet, but keep a close eye on his production this season.

Aaron Rodgers should've been the first QB drafted in ALL leagues: For you who took Vick before Rodgers, and even number 1 overall, you made a mistake. While Vick can still win a league single-handedly, there is no reason Rodgers can't do the same. The only difference is that Vick is scarier to watch than Rodgers. A-Rodge had 6 touchdowns last game and has thrown for more than 297 yards in every start. Add to that his solid rushing potential, and you have the most consistent quarterback in the game. And while Vick deals with the risks of concussions and a broken hand all season, you have a much safer bet in Aaron Rodgers.

Tony Romo may blow real games, but he is still a top QB: Yes, Romo has choked away two games for his real-life Dallas Cowboys. But he is still putting up solid fantasy numbers and is worthy of a must-start. If he can cut down on his interceptions, he has potential to be a top-7 quarterback for the remainder of the season.

All players on the Colts are iffy at best: Yes, even Reggie Wayne has become a less than reliable option. When your quarterback completes 43 percent of passes, it is never a good sign for the wide receivers. While Wayne was expected to have a down year, no one saw this coming till the sad news of Peyton Manning's injury. Dallas Clark is hardly a viable option and Wayne is gradually losing value. I would be hesitant to start any Colts players right now.

Week 2 Lessons: Truths and Myths

2011-09-22T12:56:00.005-05:00

With players like Arian Foster and Chris Johnson doing little, and others like Rob Gronkowski, Devery Henderson and Eric Decker (remember when I threw that name out there?) lighting up the scoreboard, this season has had its share of surprises. So far, this season has been about out of nowhere performances and early comeback candidates. In order to evaluate what has been going on, here are some truths and myths from the start of the season.

Truth: Matt Stafford is now a must-start quarterback. Stafford is living up to his hype as he has produced two monster games to start the season. While one of those games was against the tumultuous Chiefs defense, the Lions schedule remains favorable for the rest of the season. As long as Stafford stays healthy, start him in all leagues unless you have a guy by the name of Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. If he is a backup to your elite, look to trade Stafford while his value is high.

Myth: Beanie Wells is a bust and will lose his starting job. Beanie is another player that is finally losing his bust label after two straight 90 yard, 1 touchdown games. Because he looks explosive and Ryan Williams is out for the season, Wells' job appears to be safe. While Wells is not elite, he is a very solid option.

Truth: Arian Foster's value is sinking. Foster tweaked his hamstring again and will probably miss another game. Even if he does come back soon, the Texans will be extremely cautious with him. Oh, and that backup Ben Tate is looking quite solid as well. I expect that when Foster does come back, we will be in for another tough to figure out running back committee. Just dandy.

Myth: Darren Sproles is a viable starter. While Sproles is one the most elusive backs this year, he remains at most a solid PPR option. His touches will be inconsistent week to week and his value is minimal in most leagues.

Myth: Ryan Grant will return to his old form and take the starting spot. Grant hasn't done bad by any means this year, but James Starks looks much better. Grant is averaging 4.3 yards a carry, but only has 15 carries to date. He looks alright but isn't nearly the running back he was in 2009.

Truth: Kenny Britt is a stud. It's true. He is a stud. Hasselbeck trusts Britt and has helped him to be the 4th most targeted wide receiver this year. Last year Britt was actually a very consistent option, even though he found himself off the field because of his troubles. Now that he is healthy and out of trouble, expect Britt to continue his monstrous start.

Truth: Steve Smith is back for the most part. Smith's start is extremely encouraging to owners who took a chance on him. He has been targeted 2nd most in the NFL and is clearly Cam Newton's go-to man. While I don't expect Smith to keep up this torrid pace, especially if Newton slows down, Smith has officially returned to a viable option.

Truth: Rob Gronkowski is for real, and a top-5 tight end. With players like Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis struggling, Gronkowski has stepped up his game in the typically weak tight end position. Because Brady is throwing so much, it doesn't matter how much he spreads the ball. Gronkowski will get the ball and put up great numbers. Take Aaron Hernandez out of the mix for a couple weeks, and you got a tight end with sky-high potential. He is a great sell-high candidate, but also one that can bolster any fantasy lineup.

Myth: Chris Johnson is no longer an elite running back. This is clearly a myth; Johnson has always had his share of mediocre games. While his holdout has certainly hurt him, I expect Johnson to find his groove and be the stud he was for the past three seasons. Johnson remains a must-start despite his early struggles.

Week 2 Grades

2011-09-20T00:05:00.000-05:00

Start 'Em Players	Performace	Grade
Matt Stafford	294 yds, 4 tds, 1 int	A+
Rex Grossman	291 yds, 2 tds, 2 ints	B
Tim Hightower	96 rush yds, 10 rec yds	C+
Cedric Benson	59 rush yds, 17 rec yds	D+
Jahvid Best	57 rush yds, 66 rec yds, 2 tds	A
Steve Smith	6 rec, 156 yds, 1 fum	B+
Anquan Boldin	3 rec, 46 yds	D
Devery Henderson	3 rec, 103 yds, 1 td	A
Greg Olsen	1 rec, 34 yds	C-
Owen Daniels	3 rec, 25 yds, 1 td	B-
Detroit Lions DST	3 pts allowed, 3 fum, 3 ints	A+
Sit 'Em Players	Performance	Grade
Josh Freeman	243 yds, 1 td, 1 int	C+
Sam Bradford	331 yds, 1 td, 1 fum	C-
LeGarrette Blount	71 rush yds, 2 tds	D-
Chris Johnson	53 rush yds, 12 rec yds	A
Dwayne Bowe	5 rec, 101 yds, 12 rush yds	C
Dallas Clark	4 rec, 32 yds, 1 td	C-
Chicago Bears DST	30 pts allowed, 1 fum	A+

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em, Gut Starts Week 2

2011-09-17T13:26:00.002-05:00

Quarterbacks
Start: Matt Stafford vs Kansas City
Ryan Fitzpatrick and company annihilated the Kansas City defense last week. Now Stafford and his talented Lions get their shot to put up great numbers. Look for a big week and number 1 quarterback production from Stafford.
Start: Rex Grossman vs Arizona
Any time Rex Grossman is being recommended to start, I get a knot in my stomach. While he certainly has big potential against the defense that rookie Cam Newton trounced, Grossman is still Grossman. But if you don't have an elite QB option, there is no reason not to go with Grossman. Be aware, many of his great weeks in Chicago were followed by some of the worst quarterback play ever seen.
Sit: Josh Freeman at Minnesota
Freeman is generally a safe 15 point option week in and week out. While he may come close this week, I have reservations with his slot receiver Sammie Stroughter not playing. There is a low ceiling for Freeman and it is advisable to start someone with more upside for this matchup.
Sit: Sam Bradford at New York Giants
The Rams offense had one of the worst injury weeks I have ever seen to start a season. Bradford's trusty option in Danny Amendola is gone and Steven Jackson is looking iffy. Bradford himself is still recovering and should not be trusted at this point. I'd rather start Chad Henne and Kyle Orton this week.
Running Backs
Start: Tim Hightower vs Arizona
Coach Shanahan worked Hightower last week and got solid production from the former Cardinal. Look for more success and 20 plus carries for Hightower against the pitiful Arizona defense.
Start: Cedric Benson at Denver
Benson found success against Cleveland last week and should be able to do the same against Denver. Benson is a lock for 20 plus carries and will be looking to take the load of off Cincinnati quarterbacks. I am seeing another 100 yard game and at least one touchdown.
Start: Jahvid Best vs Kansas City
Best is still healthy. Thank God. Kansas City's defense may be set up for allowing big yards every week at this point. In PPR leagues, Best is especially valuable, but just as much so in standard leagues. His big play potential makes him a fairly low risk start this week with a great chance for a breakout game.
Sit: LeGarrette Blount at Minnesota
Minnesota's run defense is not as feared as in the past, but they still boast one of the better, more physical defensive lines. I think it will be tough for Blount to produce especially with the amount of carries he got last week. If his production doesn't change soon, I'd be very cautious with Blount for the rest of this year.
Bust Alert: Chris Johnson vs Baltimore
I would not advise anyone to actually sit their first round pick, but if you have that gut feeling that I do, I would be cautious. Johnson struggled mightily against the weak Jags defense and now faces the tough Ravens defense. Johnson is still an elite, but I suspect that missing camp time may hinder his season.
Wide Receivers
Start: Steve Smith vs Green Bay
Smith was revitalized with Newton throwing his way and will find success against the struggling Packers' defense. Whether or not struggling is the word for the Packers that faced the powerful Saints, I still believe that Smith will find some openings.
Start: Anquan Boldin at Tennessee
I expect Boldin to return to being an elite this year with the constantly improving Joe Flacco. With Lee Evans providing a needed speed threat, Boldin will be able to get open in the middle of the field. He had a solid week 1 and has a great matchup this week against the Titans.
Start: Devery Henderson vs Chicago
Henderson is one of the most inconsistent fantasy performers as his success depends on 80 yard bombs. But against a slow Chicago seconday, Henderson has big play potential for this week. With Colston out, expect more targets and a big week from Henderson.
Sit: Dwayne Bowe at Detroit
Matt Cassel simply is not that good. As a result, Bowe will suffer. Last year's numbers will be a far cry from this season as Kansas City appears to be in for a long season.
Tight Ends
Start: Greg Olsen vs Green Bay
Green Bay has struggled with big, athletic tight ends and Olsen fits that criteria. Jimmy Graham found modest success against the Pack and Olsen should too.
Start: Owen Daniels at Miami
A disappointing week 1 for Owen Daniels' owners may drop one's opinion of him. But now with Kevin Walter out, Daniels will become a much larger part of the offense. He got rave reviews this off-season and looks healthy and ready to go. He does have elite potential and after we saw what the New England tight ends do, you should be very, very excited.
Bust alert: Dallas Clark vs Cleveland
Kerry Collins' play did not affect Reggie Wayne nearly as much as Dallas Clark. Collins may eventually lean on his athletic tight end, but it will be a bumpy road. Despite a favorable matchup, I would be cautious with Clark. While he is still elite, I would not be against benching Clark from time to time this year.
Defenses
Start: Detroit Lions vs Kansas City
When Buffalo shuts down a team, things look optimistic. Detroit's ferocious defensive line should feast in this matchup. Start 'em!
Sit: Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
This game is in New Orleans. Drew Brees is their quarterback. Nuff said. Don't start Chicago.

Grades for Week 1

2011-09-17T00:17:00.001-05:00

An up and down week 1 included some great recommendations and well, some downright awful (see Ray Rice). Here are my grades for week 1. My GPA was 2.49.

Start 'Em Players	Performace	Grade
Josh Freeman	259 yds, 26 yds, 1 td, 1 int	B
Eli Manning	268 yds, 1td, 1 int	B-
Jahvid Best	72 rush yds, 42 rec yds	B-
Peyton Hillis	57 rush yds, 30 rec yds	C
Shonn Greene	26 rush yds, 7 rec yds	F
Panthers RB's	56 rush yds, 20 rec yds	F
Benjarvus Green-Ellis	34 rush yds, 1 td	C+
Santana Moss	6 rec, 76 yds	C+
Wes Welker	8 rec, 160 yds, 2 tds	A+
Kenny Britt	5 rec, 136 yds, 2tds	A+
Mario Manningham	4 rec, 49 yds	C-
Jordy Nelson	6 rec, 77 yds, 1 td	B+
Ben Watson	3 rec, 45 yds, 1 td	B
Jimmy Graham	4 rec, 56 yds, 1 td	B+
Kellen Winslow	6 rec, 66 yds	C+
Lance Kendricks	1 rec, 18 yds	D
Sit 'Em Players	Performance	Grade
Matt Cassel	119 yds, 1 td, 1 int	A+
Matt Ryan	319 yds, 1 int	A
Michael Turner	100 rush yds, 40 rec yds,	C
Felix Jones	44 rush yds, 22 rec yds, 1 td	C+
Ray Rice	107 rush yds, 42 rec yds, 2 tds	F
Ryan Mathews	45 rush yds, 73 rec yds	C+
Chad Ochocinco	1 rec, 14 yds	A+
Dez Bryant	3 rec, 71 yds, 1 td	C-
Sidney Rice	Out	A+
Tony Gonzalez	5 rec, 72 yds	B-

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em, Gut Starts

2011-09-07T19:54:00.003-05:00

       Every week from now on I will provide you with players who I think you would be wise to start, sit, and those who I just have a gut feeling about. I will not be telling you to start Aaron Rodgers or Adrian Peterson as those are obvious starts. Instead, I will give you players who have advantageous matchups and could shake up your weekly lineup.

START 'EM: QB's
Josh Freeman vs Detroit
       Despite Detroit's frightening defensive line, Freeman has a great chance to pick up where he left off last season. He was one of the most consistent quarterbacks last year, only scoring in single digits once. His mobility will help him avoid the dangerous pass rush of the Lions and allow him to pick apart their weak seconday.
Eli Manning at Washington
   Manning struggled last season against Washington and is looking to rebound this season. While he still may throw a couple picks, he will also pick apart a very weak defense that was 26th against quarterbacks last year.

SIT 'EM: QB's
Matt Cassel vs Buffalo
   Reports are that Cassel may in fact miss his first start this season after suffering a rib injury. Despite the good matchup, he is obviously a risky start. His inconsistencies will make it hard to trust him especially on the run first Chiefs. Start him only if he is your best option, and I dearly hope that he is not.
Matt Ryan at Chicago
   If you have Matt Ryan, odds are you waited on a quarterback and you took him as well as a solid backup. Ryan won't be a terrible option this week, but he may struggle away from home against a solid Chicago defense. Don't sit him for someone like Alex Smith, but I would rather start someone like Matt Stafford or Eli Manning.

START 'EM: RB's
Jahvid Best at Tampa Bay
       Remember Best's first two games last season? He looked like a stud rookie only to have his fragile body give out. He still finished 20th among running backs in PPR leagues and has Jamaal Charles-like potential. Start him while he is healthy and reap the rewards.
Peyton Hillis vs Cincinnati
       Against the awful Cinci defense, look for a monster start to the season for Hillis. Cleveland will surely pound the ball and Hillis should look more like he did before the season-ending collapse. His legs are fresh and he shows all indications of starting out this season right.
Shonn Greene vs. Dallas
       Greene's breakout campaign will begin here against Dallas. Look for the Jets to rely heavily on him and much less on LaDanian Tomlinson. I expect Greene to get 80 yards and a touchdown this week, making him a great option. And considering he should be your 2nd or 3rd running back, what more could you ask for?
Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams at Arizona
   Arizona's defense was simply awful last season ranking 31st in fantasy against opposing running backs. They have made no signifcant changes and may be even worse. Carolina's terrific offensive line will open holes for both these guys and take some pressure off Cam Newton. Look for a big day from both of these guys, as each has a chance to eclipse 100 yards.
GUT PICK: Benjarvus Green-Ellis vs Miami
I think Benjarvus will find his way into the endzone and prove that he's not just a one year wonder. That said, don't start him over an elite running back, but know that he does have a favorable matchup. My gut tells me 100 yards and 2 touchdowns.

SIT 'EM: RB's
Felix Jones vs New York Jets
       A tough matchup in week one for Felix Jones. While I believe he will have a breakout season with an appropriate amount of carries, I think we will have to wait till after week 1. The Jets stingy defense will make it tough for Jones to get anywhere. However, he is still worth a start in PPR leagues as he may be the recipient of many short passes.
Michael Turner at Chicago
       Turner continues to be a workhorse and saw another 330 carry season for Atlanta. Last time that happened he slowed down dramatically and had an off year. I don't expect that much of a dip, but a little drop off for the aging Turner may be in store. That and facing the run stopping Bears will make it a painful week 1 for Turner.
Ray Rice vs Pittsburgh
       Ray Rice struggled mightily against Pittsburgh last season. He accumulated just 17 carries for 52 yards and no touchdowns in two games against Pittsburgh. I don't see much changing as he will still struggle. But if you don't have any better options, then you have to start your number one back. Just don't get your hopes up for this week. And also don't give up on him if he does fail to produce, he will bounce back.
Ryan Matthews vs Minnesota
   I mean really? He's been banged up all camp, will lose goalline carries to Mike Tolbert, and has failed to inspire anybody to start him. Don't start him, especially against the Williams' of Minnesota.

START 'EM: WR's
Santana Moss vs New York Giants
Moss is the now the most reliable target in Washington. Even with Rex Grossman starting, Moss should get his share of catches and will find success against the depleted New York defense.
Wes Welker at Miami
Welker is a must-start in PPR leagues and a solid, consistent option all around. He may not put up monstrous numbers, but is a great option against the unbalanced Miami defense.
Kenny Britt at Jacksonville
He scored a touchdown in 7 of his 12 games last season and now has the veteran Matt Hasselbeck throwing to him. He has great potential for this season and a great matchup against Jacksonville.
Mario Manningham at Washington
Washington's defense is downright awful this season and will be in trouble against the solid Giants. Look for Manningham to pick up where he left off last season with three consecutive 100 yard games. And with Steve Smith gone, he will be getting even more chances to shine.

SIT 'EM: WR's
Chad Ochocinco at Miami
His first regular season game with the new offense doesn't bode well for Ochocinco. And with so many weapons in New England, Ocho may find it tough to get the ball. That and Miami's solid cornerback corps will make it a challenge. If anything, Ocho will mainly help out Wes Welker's value.
Dez Bryant vs New York Jets
I believe that Dez is a great breakout candidate for this season, but it won't start in week 1. If you have better options, you are much safer benching Bryant.
Sidney Rice at San Francisco
This will be a common sit 'em all season. Rice has done nothing in his career without Brett Favre throwing to him. And oh, he's got Tavaris Jackson back. Just dandy.
GUT PICK: Jordy Nelson vs Saints
With so many options for the Saints to cover, Nelson will have a field day in the season opener. My gut says 120 yards and 1 touchdown.

START 'EM: TE's
Ben Watson vs Cincinnati
Jimmy Graham at Green Bay
Kellen Winslow vs Detroit
GUT PICK: Lance Kendricks

SIT 'EM: TE's
Tony Gonzalez at Chicago

'EM: KICKERS
I'm not going to tell you what kickers to start. I mean really? You have only one on your team right now so start him. Then once byes start begin to play your matchups and weather. Do what you have to do.

'EM: DST's
You should for the most part only have one defense on your roster so start that. If you really are concerned with a defense for this week like the Packers or the Saints, look at the Browns, Chiefs, and Seahawks,

Elite QB Strategy Vs. Two-QB Strategy

2011-08-27T20:58:00.004-05:00

For the past several years in fantasy football, the value of a quarterback has gradually increased. While it used to be uncommon for a quarterback to go in round 1, we have seen a large amount of quarterbacks drafted in the early rounds. While there are 6 clear elite quarterbacks this year, and maybe a seventh in Tony Romo, the depth at quarterback has also increased. While some prefer to jump on the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick, others prefer to wait for a combination like Matt Stafford and Eli Manning. There can be benefits to either strategy.

While in the past I would have waited to draft a QB like Ben Roethisberger later, I have now become an advocate of taking a QB in rounds 2-4. Each draft will vary, but you cannot argue with the consistency and production from this year's top 7. Besides Michael Vick, you almost know what you will get from these top quarterbacks. Even Tony Romo last year was on pace for a solid 4280 yards and 29 touchdowns before he got injured. Just take a look at the averages for the past 3 full seasons for each elite quarterback.

Quarterback	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns
Aaron Rodgers	4131	29
Drew Brees	4692	34
Michael Vick (just last year's)	3018	21
Philip Rivers	4324	31
Tom Brady	4368	38
Peyton Manning	4401	31
Tony Romo	4047	30

Obviously, with players like Rodgers and Vick, they see their points increase greatly thanks to rushing stats which also helps their argument as surefire first rounders. But you can see why it is to your benefit to grab one of the elites. They have the marks of consistent production year in and year out. That said, overpaying can leave you short-handed at key WR and RB positions, so be careful. Snagging someone like Philip Rivers, for instance, who is not too different from Rodgers, is a better bargain being drafted 2-3 rounds later. But stretching for someone like Peyton Manning, who I have advised to be avoided in drafts for now obvious reasons, can be a poorly valued pick.

So the question that arises is, "What if I want to wait altogether on a quarterback? How much do I lose by going with the likes of Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford as opposed to Tom Brady?". The answer is not simple. For one, you lose a bench spot to a quarterback. With a top 7 QB, you hardly need a backup save their bye weeks. For any other quarterback, you will surely need a backup. In addition, playing matchups can become stressful and it makes for tough weekly decisions.

So let's take a look at some scenarios that may have played out in just last season. I will assume that the best decision possible was made each week in these 2-QB scenarios.

Quarterbacks	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns
Flacco/Roethlisberger	4310	29
Eli Manning/Ryan	4185	39
Cutler/Cassel	3674	33
Bradford/Sanchez	4052	24
Palmer/Schaub	5076	34

So, clearly the two quarterback strategy can work. In fact, it can even work better than an elite quarterback. But this strategy is risky and far from a given. Playing the matchups perfectly is nearly impossible to do. And the fact that these quarterbacks are not as consistent as the elite leaves you vulnerable to implosions.

The quarterbacks being drafted later are drafted for clear reasons. Some may be injury-prone like Stafford, others may be pick magnets like Manning, and some are still young and unproven like Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford. I do believe that there is great potential for some of these quarterbacks, but they no doubt have a risk and a bit of an "unknown" factor. That is, we still do not really know how they will do. This is a sharp contrast to someone like Brady or Rodgers. Consistency is a big issue as well; thus, making matchup playing a nightmare.

Is it worth it? To me, the answer is no. To others who think they are brilliant coaches and matchup wizards, go for it. But I would much rather have the safety of a Rivers, Rodgers, or Brady than a mixture of Eli Manning and Matt Stafford. I figure, you save a bench spot for a non-quarterback and avoid stressful decision making during the week. Not only are you going to get consistent, solid production, you will have the luxury in knowing that you have a top quarterback who does not need to be subbed out.

If you do miss out on an elite quarterback (Tony Romo signifies the end of the elites), don't panic and be patient. Who knows, getting Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford could be a blessing in disguise. This year there is potential outside of the top 7 for similar production to an elite quarterback. While you won't be nearly as safe, you can still have a top-notch team that can crack the playoffs. I still advise getting a top tier QB, but at least for this season, it is not the end of the world to miss out.

all stats from ESPN stats and game logs

Players that I L.O.V.E

2011-08-19T00:22:00.011-05:00

Love is a powerful word. Love is what holds the world together. Love conquers all. It's a love story baby just say yeah.
Every year, there are players that for some reason or another, I absolutely love and will target in nearly every draft. The hardest part about loving players in fantasy is to not reach on them. And then there's the grey area of picking players from your favorite team that you love. No doubt, it can make your season that much more fun. Unless you're a Cincinnati Bengals fan.
So for every draft, it is a good idea to have a list of players that you absolutely love. These can be picks that you think will be bargains, gut feeling break out players, or players whose point per game difference (at their respective position) is greatest (Michael Vick and Antonio Gates). Whoever your "love" players are, it is best to avoid unnatural love. Like love for players with awesome names. Anyone remember Tim Biakabutuka? Or Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala? Or the current T.J. Houshmandzadeh, now known to many as T.J. Who's Your Mama. Despite awesome names, clearly guys like these shouldn't be among your loved fantasy players. You get the picture.
But there are many things I love in this world. Football, duh. Ultimate Frisbee. Taylor Swift. Chocolate apple juice. Jesus (he's the one I love the most and the reason I live life the way I do). The Packers.
Anyways, here are some players that I love and think you should too.

Shonn Greene (RB, NYJ, ADP 61): Last year, Greene was way overvalued. This year, he is far too undervalued. Experts were calling for his breakout season last year when LaDanian Tomlinson spoiled hopes of that. But now, Shonn Greene should take off and produce like many thought he would last year. LT's role will be much more limited and Greene will be a force. Draft him. For his draft value, you won't regret it.

Ahmad Bradshaw (RB, NYG, ADP 35): For someone who put quietly put up 1,500 total yards and 8 touchdowns, he is a great value being selected as the 16th running back. I expect more of the same from him and think he will outperform the likes of DeAngelo Williams, Darren McFadden, and LeGarrett Blount. And maybe more.

Matthew Stafford (QB, DET, ADP 109): If only Stafford could stay healthy, he may be a top 10 quarterback. Unfortunately, he has only played in 13 of 32 possible games. But Detroit has loads of talent including this guy by the name of Calvin Johnson. Maybe you heard of him. He and Stafford have great chemistry and Megatron will see his value boosted if Stafford stays healthy. Now Stafford is not one that I would neccessarily draft, but he will be a great addition in deeper leagues and for those who miss on one of the elite quarterbacks.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI, ADP 22): This a bit of an obvious one, but I think Fitzgerald will make a return to the top 5 thanks to Kevin Kolb. Considering what Fitzgerald did last year with three mediocre quarterbacks, I think Fitzgerald should now be drafted in the top 5 over Greg Jennings. Kolb may not live up to they hype, but that doesn't mean that Fitzy won't benefit. He will. And if Kolb does bust, it can't be much worse than Derek Anderson or Max Hall. Right?

Neil Rackers (K, HOU, ADP 121): Ha, just kidding. You know how I feel about kickers.

Wes Welker (WR, NE, ADP 57): Welker's knee appears to be fine and I think Welker will make a return to triple digit receptions this season. While Chad Ochocinco won't stretch the defense quite like Randy Moss did, I think Welker will be able to benefit nonetheless. He will once again be a monster in PPR leagues and should be in line for a solid season. He is currently being drafted as the 19th receiver, but will perform more in the 10th to 15th range.

Philip Rivers (QB, SD, ADP 24): Why do I mind not getting Aaron Rodgers as my quarterback? It's because of this guy right here. Three consecutive 4,000 yards seasons with 28 plus TD passes and Rivers is not far behind. He is being drafted much later allowing you to get an elite running back or wide receiver. I will take Rivers and Ray Rice any day over Rodgers and Cedric Benson.

Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, ADP 56): Hopefully this isn't a love due to my allegiance to the Super Bowl champs. However, Finley is absolutely loaded with talent and if he can finally stay healthy, who knows what kind of numbers we may see. And if he gets hurt, so what? There are plenty of other tight ends who won't be very different from the 6th to 15th ranked ones. You may miss out on a value pick, but I see Finley putting together a season to remember. If you don't believe me, watch this.

Shawn Johnson: You are my soul mate and will always have a place in my heart. Love, Nate.

Matt Forte (CHI, RB, ADP 29): Another PPR stud, Forte has put up solid numbers his whole career and is still a bit on the undervalued side. He should get you 1,500 total yards and will get his share of touchdowns.

Jahvid Best (DET, RB, ADP 47): Best is another running back that I can see breaking out and he will be a stud in PPR leagues. With Mikel Leshore done for the season, Best and his Charles-like potential will be in for a fun ride.

Austin Collie (IND, WR, ADP 75): Collie was on path to a monstrous season last year when multiple concussions derailed his hopes. For someone being drafted behind Chad Ochocinco, I don't see how you can go wrong. He has evident low end number 1 potential and can be drafted as your third, maybe even fourth receiver. He is definitely worth a chance and can bolster any lineup. Think of his stats like Vick's from last year projected over a full season. Ridiculous. 103 catches, 1153 yards, and 14 touchdowns. And that's including the game where he was re-injured.

Ryan Grant (RB, GB, ADP 55): Another running back makes my love list and in the form of another Super Bowl champ. He missed basically all of last year but appears to be at full strength this year. Despite competition from James Starks, Grant will be the go-to-guy and can pick up where he left off in 2009. He won't be a number 1 back, but can definitely put up 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns, making him a very solid mid-round pick.

Plaxico Burress (WR, NYJ, ADP 103): Plaxico has slowly moved up the wide receiver ranks and is reaching a point where he may be drafted too high. He is as far away from a surefire pick as you can be and may end up doing absolutely nothing. But, I think he is a worthy pick in the late rounds because he has huge potential. Despite obvious concerns, you will be mad is you didn't use your 15th rounder on him and he goes on to have a productive year. He is replacing Braylon Edwards and has the size to still be effective. Let's just hope he doesn't shoot himself in the foot or anything with the second chance.

Tim Tebow (QB, DEN, undrafted): I just love the man. Clearly, most of his sleeper value is gone. But, that doesn't mean I can't love a man who cares about the game, people, and Jesus. I think any hate directed at him is unwarranted and unnecessary. But yeah, don't draft him (this year).

LeSean McCoy (RB, PHI, ADP 11): While his rushing stats are solid, it is his receiving game that makes me love him so much. Even if Vick goes down, McCoy will get his carries and his catches. I would take him over MJD and Ray Rice, making him my fifth rated running back. In PPR leagues, he can goes as high the number 1 pick, although he will most likely be between the 2nd and 4th.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, NE, ADP 52): This may be my one of my least popular love picks. Bill Belichick always seems to make life difficult when choosing New England running backs. And with two early draft picks spent on running backs, Green-Ellis may find himself limited. And while he isn't the most talented of running backs, I don't see himself faltering. Maybe this is a gut feeling, but I think BenJarvus puts together another solid season and proves his worth as a number 2 back being drafted as your 3rd or 4th.

Mike Sims-Walker (WR, STL, ADP 132): Sims-Walker was already a low risk late pick, but now that he is almost guaranteed a roster spot, my hopes are even higher. Sam Bradford throwing to him makes him a great comeback candidate in an improving offense.

Oh, JaMarcus.

JaMarcus Russell (Hot dog eater, IKEA couches, sleeping): I just love making fun of him. What's not to love about a former quarterback built like a lineman? He still is in possibly the funniest "yahoo answers" questions that I have ever seen, "Did JaMarcus Russell refuse to take HGH because it didn't come in a chewable bacon-flavored form?"

Brandon Lloyd (WR, DEN, ADP 52): Now I guess he isn't one I love, but someone I really really like. Much like Green-Ellis, not many people are expecting anything close to last season. But with Kyle Orton throwing, Lloyd really blossomed and should put up serviceable numbers this season. If Denver keeps up their losing ways, they will once again be forced to throw a ton, thus enhancing Lloyd's value. If he falls in your draft like he most likely will, keep an eye on him and don't be afraid to snag him.

Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, ATL, undrafted): Now that's a cool name.

Miles Austin (DAL, WR, ADP 33): While Dez Bryant may actually outproduce Austin this year, I think Austin will still be a tremendous pick. With a healthy Tony Romo, both Austin and Bryant may be in for big seasons. I like Austin a bit more than Bryant as he is more of a sure bet than Bryant, but both have huge potential in a potent offense.

Hate is a Strong Word, But I Really Really Don't Like These Players

2011-08-17T21:38:00.003-05:00

Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 23): At last, Darren McFadden burst onto the fantasy scene with his first 1,000 yard season. And with nearly 1,700 total yards and 10 total touchdowns, he was a great late round steal. But, McFadden is a huge injury risk much like Brian Westbrook was. McFadden has played at most 13 games in a season and will at some time appear on the sidelines. In some of my drafts this year, I have seen him go as high as in the first round. This. Is. Ridiculous. While there is obvious potential based on his athleticism, he is too risky I would not draft him unless he fell much further.

Any Saints Player Not Named Drew Brees: The Saints potent offense figure to put up major points again this season but my concern is in the overload of talent there. Their backfield is a fantasy nightmare with Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles all getting some carries as well as a receiving corps that Brees spreads the ball to. Every week there is potential for someone else to put up numbers but none can be trusted on a weekly basis. Marques Colston is the closest to consistent as he should put up decent number 2 WR numbers this year even with his injury risk. Ingram and Jimmy Graham each have potential to shine but will also find it very tough to be consistent fantasy contributors.

Reggie Bush (RB, MIA, ADP 111): His value lies solely in PPR leagues and nowhere else. He has proved that he never has been and never will be a reliable fantasy option. Do not waste a pick on him.

Dwayne Bowe (WR, KC, ADP 38): Bowe finally broke out last season thanks in large part to overachieving play from Matt Cassel. In fantasy, touchdowns are extremely hard to predict, but I expect Bowe to fall far short of his league-leading 15 TD's last season. Last year Bowe and Cassel benefited from an easy schedule that took a bad turn towards the end of the year. Bowe struggled with only 14 catches in the last 5 games and much of his success depends on the untrustworthy Cassel. While Bowe could put up good numbers and certainly has potential to be a number 1 option, I just don't see him coming close to last season's totals.

Peyton Manning (QB, IND, ADP 21): Manning is no doubt one of the most consistent fantasy performers year after year and you always know what you will get. While he is obviously still one of the seven elite quarterbacks this year, I actually have him ranked 6th. Someone like Philip Rivers, who has actual wide receivers to throw to this season, is a much better bargain and less of a risk. Manning's neck injury worries me and Reggie Wayne may finally be slowing down a bit. With a poor offensive line and the usual suspect running game, Manning may see his numbers take another slight dip.

Ryan Matthews (RB, SD, ADP 41): For him to be a top 20 running back this year is just absurd. Last year, countless owner fell for his potential and took a chance on him much too early. He produced just one game with more than 15 points and that was in week 17. Well this year, Matthews continues to miss camp time with some nagging injuries. That combined with Tolbert taking his fair share of carries makes Matthews a player to avoid on draft day. For now, I see Matthews as no more than a flex starter and someone being drafted far too high.

Ryan Torain (RB, WSH, ADP 100): In the games that Torain played last season, he was actually quite productive and a good pickup. However, he is constantly being injured and has already lost the starting spot to new acquisition Tim Hightower. With Roy Helu also figuring to get some carries, I see Torain getting lost in the mix. If you can get him in the late rounds of the draft, he may be worth a flier but don't count on him staying on the field too much.

Cedric Benson (RB, CIN, ADP 64): None of the Bengals should excite you this year. Period. Benson was last among the top 36 rushers with 3.5 yards per carry and has very limited potential. While he is going to get a great deal of carries, he is consistently average and nothing more. And while rookie wideout A.J. Green has huge potential, this year should be a rough ride for Andy Dalton and company. Their lackluster offense has little potential for THIS season and I would avoid all of the Bengals' players.

Sidney Rice (WR, SEA, ADP 80): Sidney Rice burst onto the fantasy scene when Brett Favre helped him produce his best season in 2009. In his four other seasons, he has not eclipsed 400 yards! Having Tavaris Jackson as his QB again does not help either. I do not see Rice being much of a factor this season. Avoid the misconception of him returning to an elite receiver.

Long gone are his glory days. So why is he even being drafted?

LaDanian Tomlinson (RB, NYJ, ADP 114): At the beginning of last season, LT gave us flashbacks of his elite glory days. But now, those are far, far gone. After week 6, Tomlinson failed to put up more than 10 fantasy points and his play plummeted. While he will still be utilized, I don't see why one would bother with a pick on him. Oh, and as you'll see later, Shonn Greene is one of my favorite undervalued players this year. He will be the man, not LT.

Greg Jennings (WR, GB, ADP 18): As much as it pains me to say this, I think my boy Greg Jennings is being overvalued this year. He has never been a true number 1 receiver nor the most consistent. That said, he will put up great numbers, just not top 5 numbers. With the return of Jermichael Finley and a running game in Green Bay, I think Jennings will get less targets and less scores. He should have no doubt a solid season, but since he is being drafted so high, I have to put him in my really don't like column.

No, not this Jay Cutler with muscles like mine.

Jay Cutler (QB, CHI, ADP 115): While not many people actually like him in fantasy, he is still being drafted far too high for such an inconsistent quarterback. Last year more than half of Cutler's starts resulted in 15 or less fantasy points. Major concerns with the Bears offensive line are not helping his cause and the loss of steady Olin Kreutz is a crushing blow. Cutler should not be drafted except in the deepest of leagues.

Draft Day Tips: Rookies To Watch For

2011-08-11T20:50:00.001-05:00

Last year, only a couple rookies really made a splash in the fantasy football world. Those who stumbled upon the likes of Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount had to be extremely pleased with their solid production. Others, mainly Ryan Matthews and C.J. Spiller, were major disappointments and brought little to the table. But finding a solid rookie who can instantly produce is tough to come by these days and hardly predictable.
For instance, someone like Jimmy Clausen who had one of the easier paths to becoming a starter, failed miserably to put up even decent quarterback numbers. But Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, rookie tight ends on the same team both became serviceable options at some point during the season. Last year's class is fairly promising for THIS years draft with Dez Bryant, Jahvid Best, Sam Bradford, and others looking to breakout this year. But, as for this years draft, here are my top rookies and the level of impact they will have this season.

Daniel Thomas (RB, MIA, ADP 76): With both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams gone, Daniel Thomas will be the main feature in Miami. Oh wait, Reggie Bush is now there. But don't fret, Bush will keep his role as a third down back and won't hurt Thomas' value too much. This bruiser out of Kansas State should see a great amount of carries and will be Miami's workhorse. But, we all know that doesn't mean instant success for a rookie. Expect a solid impact with potential to be a high-end number 2 back.

Mark Ingram (RB, NO, ADP 65): Once again, the New Orleans' backfield has become a three-headed monster with Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles. While early indications are that Ingram should see the bulk of the carries, there is no doubt that Thomas and Sproles both have potential to get their fair share. This limits Ingram's value despite his tremendous upside on the high-powered Saints. I would generally avoid Ingram considering his draft position, but he could put up solid stats. Expect a decent impact with solid number 2 RB potential.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL, ADP 105): While fellow rookie wideout A.J. Green is being taken higher in drafts, I think Jones has more potential for his rookie campaign. Jones is being set into an already great offense with a fantastic quarterback in Matt Ryan. There are rave reviews right now for Jones and he could end up making a difference with Roddy White drawing double teams. Do not expect an immediate impact, but a good impact later in the season. Keep your eye on him.
Roy Helu (RB, WSH, ADP 130): Regarded highly by Coach Mike Shanahan, Helu will definitely see some playing time. How much that is relies heavily on injury prone Ryan Torain and newly acquired Tim Hightower. While it is a cluttered backfield, Helu has great potential and could emerge as Shanahan's new guy. If Torain gets hurt, I think Helu could really shine and have a big fantasy impact. But until then, expect just a marginal impact on behalf of Helu.
A.J. Green (WR, CIN, ADP 89): A.J. Green is in the perfect situation. He is a promising rookie wide receiver expected to start in week 1. And he plays for the mighty, oh, wait. Cincinnati Bengals. At least he has Carson Pal... Oh. Maybe not. Well, Green does have a promising future ahead of him with Andy Dalton looking to develop. But the Bengals, without Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer, may have a rough time against punishing defenses like Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice a season. And with the chance of Bruce Gradkowski throwing to him, Green will find it tough to be fantasy relevant. Expect a marginal fantasy impact with potential to be a low-end number 3 receiver.
Ryan Williams (RB, ARI, ADP 91): Arizona made a surprising pick with Williams despite taking Beanie Wells in the first round just two years ago. Williams will get carries, but needs time to adjust to the NFL especially coming off an injury. I do not see Arizona giving up on Beanie so quickly, but Williams could make a splash if Wells struggles again. Expect a moderate impact from Williams.
Alex Henry (K, PHI, ADP 152): If you know me, then you know my thoughts on kickers. But Henry may actually end up being the most fantasy relevant rookie (kind of). He is on the high-powered Eagles and will see plenty of points. But is any kicker really more fantasy relevant than another? Even if you take him (it better be in the last round), it's not like he will be any different from any other kicker. Hard to predict (and even harder because he's a rookie) and not a difference maker. But he could finish in the top 10 at his position. Which is why I guess I have to say that he will have a solid fantasy impact.
Cam Newton (QB, CAR, ADP 131): There is really no reason to draft him. Although he can compile rushing yards, expect no fantasy impact from Newton this season.
Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, ATL, undrafted): Rodgers' value falls solely in PPR leagues. He is still the third man in Atlanta and very undersized. But he is electrifying and should find the field at least a little bit. Monitor him for leagues that give points for catches. Other than that, he really has no value.
Dane Sanzenbacher (WR, CHI, undrafted): Consider him a very, very deep sleeper. His chances of even making the team are not that high, but they seem to improve every day. He is even challenging Earl Bennett for FIRST team slot reps. Who knows? He could be the next Wes Welker. While realistically he won't have value this season, I think he could surprise and see the field more than one would think. If you are in a deep league, give him a shot.
My former fellow Illini Mikel Leshore would have made this list if not due to a season ending injury. He still has a promising future ahead of him. But with the luck the Lions have had drafting, maybe they should look at fellow Fighting Illini Nate Amodio who rushed for 1 touchdown in the intramural season. He could make the transition from QB to RB as long as the NFL makes a rule for the max player weight to be 150.

Draft Day Tips: Bang for Yo' Buck, Value Picks

2011-08-06T19:08:00.004-05:00

Value, according to Merriam-Webster dictionary, is the relative worth, utility, or importance. A value pick in fantasy is someone who can be picked later than others at his position, but has potential to produce on par or even better than those drafted ahead. By identifying key value picks in your draft, you should be able to really bolster your lineup and have depth on your bench. Here are some players who I think provide great value for where they are being drafted.

Tony Romo (QB, DAL, ADP 45): Romo being drafted will most likely signify the end of the elite quarterbacks in your draft. Although drafting him coming off his injury is a bit risky, he provides great value for a 4^th to 5^th round pick. Before last season, he put up at least 26 touchdowns in three consecutive seasons and over 4,000 yards in two of them. Expect him to return to those numbers making him a solid number 1 option and great value if you want to wait a bit for a quarterback, while still grabbing an elite one.

Kevin Kolb (QB, ARI, ADP 112): With a fresh new start in Arizona, Kolb has a chance to piece together a solid season with his new team. Despite his lack of experience and poor touchdown to interception ratio, look for Kolb after the 10^th round. Here, he can provide backup value with potential to be a low end starter. Keep in mind that if you do grab a top 7 quarterback, there is really no need for a backup. But those who go for a two QB strategy or aren’t sure of their starter, Kolb should be your man.

Ahmad Bradshaw (RB, NYG, ADP 35): Now back with the Giants, speedster Bradshaw is looking to pick up where he left off last year. Even with Brandon Jacobs in the mix, Bradshaw saw more carries and produced 1,500 all-purpose yards and 8 touchdowns. Look for more of the same from Bradshaw who has great potential for a 3^rd or 4^th round back. And with him being drafted close to Knowshon Moreno and Ryan Matthews, I would take Bradshaw in a heartbeat over the two.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, NE, ADP 52): This is where the site you use for fantasy changes one's value greatly. In my drafts on Nfl.com, I have gotten tremendous value for him in the 9^th round. But on ESPN, it appears as if he is going more towards the 5^th round. Nonetheless, Green-Ellis has a knack for the endzone and provides good value if you can snag him after the 5^th round. Just be wary of Bill Belichick who tends to mix up his backfield quite a bit. And with New England using their recent 2^nd and 3^rd round picks on running backs, Green-Ellis may get lost in the mix. However, I expect Green-Ellis to have another productive season as he is one of my favorite mid round running backs.

Shonn Greene (RB, NYJ, ADP 59): Last year many people, expected Greene to be a breakout candidate with a bigger role in New York. Unfortunately for his owners, LaDainian Tomlinson reemerged and bumped Greene down to a small role. But this year Greene should get the bulk of the carries and will play more like he did against Chicago in week 16. For a 5^th or 6^th round pick, Greene could bring the value of 2^nd or 3^rd round pick. And folks, this year will be his breakout year.

Brandon Lloyd (WR, DEN, ADP 53): Again, the site you draft on could greatly change someone like Lloyd’s draft spot. Since people tend to draft generally based on the site's rankings, I’ve seen Lloyd go anywhere from the 5^th round to the 8^th round. If you can get Lloyd anywhere after the 6^th round, he could be a steal. Don’t expect last year’s numbers, but with Orton still throwing and Lloyd his go-to guy, I think he will surprise us again. And in my league where he is my 4^th receiver, I couldn’t be happier.

Austin Collie (WR, IND, ADP 72): Collie was having a stellar season till a series of concussions derailed his season. But he showed that he is capable to be a great number 2 wide receiver and is a bargain in the 7^th round. In just 9 games last season, he had caught 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns. The Colts have lots of receiving options, but Collie should be able to shine in the slot. Albeit a bit of a risky pick given his concussions, Collie is a fairly low-risk high-reward pick in the middle rounds.

Mike Sims-Walker (WR, STL, ADP 131): Look for Sims-Walker to be an absolute steal late in your draft. While you shouldn’t expect him to be a number 1 option, don’t be surprised if he puts up 800 yards and 6 touchdowns. With Sam Bradford throwing, Sims-Walker could rebound, assuming that he does in fact make the team. The St. Louis camp is extremely crowded with average wide receivers and it is possible for Sims-Walker to not make the team. But given where he is being drafted, he is certainly worth the risk.

It's cool to punch a hole in a drywall, let alone catch a ball thrown from the other side. Skills.

Chris Cooley (TE, WSH, ADP 121): Long gone are the days of Cooley being an elite tight end. But last year, Cooley was still targeted plenty of times in the red-zone even with Fred Davis looking to grab the tight end spot. Cooley finished second among tight ends in catches and third in yards, but had only 3 touchdowns. Don’t be afraid to take Cooley in the late round if you miss out on the elite tight ends. While gone are his 6 touchdown seasons, he will still be a productive option. And, he still has one of the coolest "NFL Fantasy Files".

Draft Day Tips: Players to Avoid

2011-08-02T14:41:00.003-05:00

Every draft, there are players who owners may just be dying to get, whether its someone like Michael Vick, or their surefire sleeper. At the same time, there are those players who nobody wants to touch and with good reason. Here, I present some players and (their average draft position according to ESPN) that should generally be avoided.

Quarterbacks to Avoid:

Jay Cutler (CHI, ADP 116): If Cutler makes your roster as a backup, then you should be fine because of his potential. If he somehow ends up as your starter, then you are in big trouble. His inconsistencies outweigh any of his productiveness and is wildly hit or miss. Last year, 8 of Cutler's 15 starts produced 15 or less fantasy points. Not ideal for a QB who will be missing his Pro Bowl center.

Matt Cassel (KC, ADP 115): Cassel produced a fantastic season amidst low fantasy expectations. But he still has just a 59% completion percentage and is on a run first team. Last year, Cassel beat up on some of the league's worst defenses but now will face a much, much tougher schedule.

Running Backs to Avoid:
Darren McFadden (OAK, ADP 22): McFadden finally became the runner he was expected to be out of Arkansas as he racked up nearly 1,700 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns. This is despite missing 3 games for the season. However, McFadden was nearly non-existent some weeks and poses serious injury concerns. That and him being drafted so high (I've seen him go late first round) and I would avoid McFadden. Unless he drops to you in the third round, he is not worth the risk.
Ryan Matthews (SD, ADP 43): Matthews ended his season with his only good game of the year of 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. His season as a whole was a major disappointment and opened the door for fellow teammate Mike Tolbert. Now, missing some camp time with a toe injury and coming off wrist surgery makes Matthews risky. And with Tolbert possibly stealing goal line carries, Matthews is a very risky pick.
Any Saints RB's: When Reggie Bush was traded, it looked like Mark Ingram (ADP 65) may be the feature back. Na uh. Think again as they brought in Darren Sproles (ADP 138) to make another three-headed backfield. With Ingram, Pierre Thomas (ADP 89), and Sproles all getting carries, their draft stock is limited. Ingram still has the most potential and Thomas is the most proven, but none should excite you when drafting.
Ryan Torain (WAS, ADP 100): In 3 of his 8 games, Torain rushed for over 100 yards and became a useful option last year (while he was not hurt). Coach Mike Shanahan and the Redskins not only drafted Roy Helu, but traded for Tim Hightower who will be in the mix. Shanahan reportedly really likes Helu and this is another backfield with limited fantasy potential.
Wide Receivers to Avoid:
Marques Colston (NO, ADP 47): Colston is no longer the number 1 receiver he once was despite the juggernaut Saints' offense. Brees just spreads the ball out so much that every week it seems to be someone different racking up yards and scoring touchdowns. This makes all Saints' players besides Brees tough to predict. Nonetheless, Colston is still the best for the Saints and does warrant a mid round selection. Just don't overpay for him.
Hakeem Nicks (NYG, ADP 23): It's not that you should necessarily avoid Nicks, just do not jump on him too early. He is often being drafted before Larry Fitzgerald because of his strong season last year. But I would rather have Fitzgerald who put up 1,100 yards and 7 touchdowns with terrible quarterbacks Derek Anderson, John Skelton, and Max Hall. With Kevin Kolb now, imagine the possibilities and do not take Nicks over him. Nicks should still be a top 7 WR, but he's not worth grabbing so early.
Tight Ends to Avoid:
Owen Daniels (HOU, ADP 79): I actually like Daniels a lot, just not enough to draft him in the eighth round. He is viewed as the number six tight end and a great comeback candidate, but I would avoid him solely based on draft position. You can still grab very comparable tight ends much later in the draft and hardly lose any value. If you miss on a top five tight end, wait patiently, and let the draft come to you.
Kickers to Avoid:
Have you read my thoughts on kickers? Pick one, unless he has Bill Gramatica potential. This marks one of my favorite childhood football memories by the way.
Defenses to Avoid:
Arizona Cardinals (Not drafted): Arizona finished last season ranked 9th for defenses. I can guarantee that it will not happen again. Most of their points came on defensive touchdowns even though they were continually torched by opposing offenses. The loss of playmaker Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie hurts them even more. Do not draft them. Period.

2011 Tight End Rankings

2011-07-31T21:13:00.004-05:00

Ranking Player Bye Week

1 Antonio Gates 6
2 Jason Witten 5
3 Dallas Clark 11
4 Jermichael Finley 8
5 Vernon Davis 7
6 Zach Miller (FA) ?
7 Owen Daniels 11
8 Mercedes Lewis 9
9 Kellen Winslow 8
10 Greg Olsen 9
11 Chris Cooley 5
12 Rob Gronkowski 7
13 Tony Gonzalez 8
14 Jimmy Graham 11
15 Tony Moeaki 6

IF YOU READ ONE THING READ THIS!

A key thing to note is that once the top 5 tight ends are gone, the rest of the tight ends basically become KICKERS. There was hardly a difference between the 6th and 15th tight ends last year. In fact, there was just a 14 point difference! This is less than the difference between the 1st and 10th kickers and I expect this year to behave just about the same.

As a result, if you miss out on the elite tight ends, do not panic. You can wait patiently for a remaining tight end that you may like and take him late in the draft. You will be no worse off with the 12th tight end compared to the 7th.

Tiers:

1. Best of the best: Antonio Gates

For the usual weak tight end class, Antonio Gates is by far the most proven and in a class of his own. He is on a high scoring offense and a consistent red zone threat who has 7 stellar seasons under his belt.

According to ESPN fantasy expert Matthew Berry, this is shown in the points per game difference between top scorer and next 10 at respective position. Last year, Gates averaged 13.4 points a game while the 2-11 TE's averaged just 7.1 points per game. This equates for a 6.3 point difference, which is the highest at any respective position (other than QB and Vick).

So what this means is that Gates was much better than the next 10 guys at his position. Hypothetically, having Gates should give you the biggest advantage over an opponent. Therefore, one should really target Gates. He tends to go in the early 4th round and should go no later than the 5th. If you do miss on Gates, there are still 4 other elite options who are just below him, but still have the ability to match him.

2-5: Elite: Jason Witten, Dallas Clark, Jermichael Finley, Vernon Davis

Player I want most: Jermichael Finley. Finley is going much later than Gates and has sky high potential. In a potent Green Bay offense, he will be a top option of Rodgers who missed his TE last season due to an injury. We only have seen glimpses of Finley due to these injury concerns and is no doubt a risk, but he has big number capabilities.

These are the only 5 elite options at tight end. If you want one of them, you will have to jump a little early on them. But it is worth the risk as after here, there is virtually no potential for an elite tight end.

6-15: All of the others:

Player I want the most: Owen Daniels. He is looking for a comeback year with the Texans and should be utilized in their potent offense. He and Zach Miller, who is currently unsigned, are the closest to elite you can get here. But they are still far from it.

In terms of potential, Jimmy Graham of New Orleans has the most Gates like talent as he is a former college basketball player. Despite his raw athleticism and good hands, he is on the team that spreads the ball the most. Thus, it will be tough for him to find consistent success (much like all other New Orleans receivers).

Of the others, I do like Rob Gronkowski after his success from last year and the fact that he has Tom Brady throwing him the ball. Still, there are plenty of options for Brady to throw and it will make consistency tough for him.

2011 WR Tiers

2011-07-31T15:29:00.006-05:00

Every year, wide receivers are probably the hardest to predict for fantasy success. Of the top 20 from each previous season, only about 10 remain there the next season. So 50% of the top 20 will be there this year and a new 10 players should fill those spots. So here is my attempt at putting these guys into tiers for the 2011 season.

1: Best of Best: Andre Johnson
Player I want most: Andre Johnson. He is a class of his own and the only receiver that could possibly warrant a top 10 selection. He may be a quiet and humble player, but he knows when to give a guy a smackdown.

2-5: Elite: Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings

Player I want most: Roddy White. He is the most consistent here although do not be surprised if Fitzgerald can make a comeback to the top 2. Even with the likes of John Skelton, Derek Anderson, and Max Hall quarterbacking, Fitzy still put up a solid 90 catches, 1137 yards, and 6 TD's. With Kolb now at Qb, his value could shoot up.

The only injury risk here is Calvin Johnson who seems to get nicked up every year. But with the most freakish talent of them all and a healthy QB, Megatron may be ready for a mega year. And Jennings is no doubt a great receiver, but may find the ball less with the return of Jermichael Finely and a plethora of targets for Aaron Rodgers.

6-10: Still Number 1 Options: Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, Reggie Wayne

Player I want most: Vincent Jackson. This is a very interesting tier as Wayne has fallen more than we've seen and newcomers Nicks and Wallace make a splash. Philip Rivers produces no matter who his receivers are and with Jackson back to action, he figures to be a prime target and in line for a great season.

Mike Wallace is simply explosive with 21.0 yards per catch last season and is still Big Ben's number 1 target. Austin appears to be the safest of the Cowboy's receivers and with Romo back, Austin will succeed. But Reggie Wayne, a perennial producer has dropped due to several reasons. He had a career high 12 drops last season and appears to have lost a bit of his step. Even coming off a career high in receptions, he is now 32 and other options in Indy have stepped up making Wayne a solid, but not as surefire option.

11-15: Solid: DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Marshall

Player I want most: Dwayne Bowe. He broke out last year and is primed for another big year. But his success depends greatly on Matt Cassell's consistency. Bowe has top 10 potential although will most likely hover between the 10 to 15 mark.

DeSean Jackson is another playmaker who relies on big plays to produce fantasy points. Him and Maclin should both be solid options in the fast Philly offense. Marshall here is the biggest question but also has great potential to return to his old form. With the QB situation looking ever so slightly better in Miami, Marshall could rebound nicely, or plummet even more. In PPR leagues, jump on Welker. He will not disappoint.

16-20: The Hard to Predict: Dez Bryant, Mike Williams, Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Lloyd

Player I want most: Marques Colston: Drew Brees spreads the ball like crazy in New Orleans, but Colston still puts up solid seasons. He has the best track record here and you know what you will get with him.

Williams and Lloyd were both major surprises last season. While Williams could potentially improve, Lloyd has nowhere to go but down and is a risky pick. Bryant and Holmes each have great potential with solid receivers around them. Bryant cold even be the best receiver in Dallas, but it is just too hard to predict with these guys.

21-25: Potential: Kenny Britt, Steve Johnson, Mario Manningham, Austin Collie, Percy Harvin

Player I want most: Kenny Britt. With Hasselbeck or Locker at QB, I expect Britt to develop into the solid receiver we saw glimpses of last season.

Look for Collie in the mid rounds as he could return to his pre-concussion form. As for Harvin, with McNabb throwing and Rice gone, he will be the main target and a good mid option.

26-35: A Bundle of Players: Anquan Boldin, Chad Ochocinco, Santana Moss, Sidney Rice, Pierre Garcon, Malcom Floyd, Mike Thomas, Johnny Knox, Steve Smith (CAR), Michael Crabtree

Player I want most: Chad Ochocinco. Now in New England, he has great potential and will be available much later in the draft. He is worth the risk as he could really shine with Brady.

None of these players are sure things. The safest may be Boldin and you'll have to probably have to pick at least one of these guys so good luck.

36-47: Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Lance Moore, Julio Jones, Jerome Simpson, Deion Branch, Davone Bess, Robert Meachem, Roy Williams, James Jones, Hines Ward

Player I want most: Julio Jones. With Michael Jenkins gone, look for Jones to get a fair share of targets as Roddy White will draw many double teams.

There's potential here as many of these guys will be hit or miss. In PPR leagues, look for Davone Bess who quietly caught 80 passes.

Sleepers: Jacoby Ford, Steve Breaston, Danny Amendola, Emmanuel Sanders

Ford showed big play potential and Amendola is a great PPR bargain. Breaston has a chance with a new team and Sanders could find himself in the mix in Pittsburgh.

2011 Fantasy RB Tiers

2011-07-25T20:06:00.003-05:00

1-3: Best of the Best: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster

Player I want most: Adrian Peterson: For the past four years, he has been in the top 5 despite not ever being number 1. Even with his quarterback situation, he has never been hurt by the likes of poor quarterbacks like Tavaris Jackson so I expect more greatness from All Day.

All of the 3 RB's here have a case to be number one and you can't go wrong with any with the exception of Foster. When it was found out Foster played all last season with a knee injury, it made his season that more incredible. Still, after just one season, he is the least proven of the three and will find it hard to match last season's numbers.

4-7: Elite: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice

Player I want most: Jamaal Charles. He has the freshest legs of any and has an electrifying 6.0 yards per carry for his CAREER.

In PPR leagues, these guys are studs as they are great out of the backfield. I would elevate McCoy to 4th overall because he is bound to have lots of catches from Vick. Once again, these four are all fairly proven and have solid upside. The only concern here is with MJD and his injuries. But if healthy, you can expect around 1,600 yards and 8-10 TD's.

8-10: Rock Solid: Rashard Mendehall, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson

Player I want most: Steven Jackson. Often a late 1st rounder, Jackson is a mark of consistency and is unchallenged at the running back position in St. Louis. And in PPR leagues, he goes ahead of Mendenhall and Turner. Despite a career low in yards per carry for Jackson, I'll take him anytime.

Michael Turner is my next favorite here as the Falcons constantly pound the ball with him. Mendenhall averaged just 3.9 yards a carry last year, but his 12 TD's more than made up for it. Why do I rank Mendenhall ahead of both then? His upside is higher and unlike Jackson and Turner, he is far from age 30.

11-13: The Iffy Good: Frank Gore, Peyton Hillis, Darren McFadden

Player I want most: Peyton Hillis. Why? He's white.

All kidding aside, I do not trust McFadden and every year Gore seems to be hurt. Nonetheless, this trio is decent early to mid second round options. But it would not surprise me if the Madden curse hits Hillis, Gore gets hurt, and McFadden returns to uninspiring.

Player I do NOT want: Darren McFadden

14-16: Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, LeGarrett Blount

Player I want most: Forte. Despite being a Packers fan, I think Forte will be a great value pick and a solid option. Blount and Moreno each have good potential, but are a little more unsure picks.

17-21: The Free Agents and Young'ins: Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Jahvid Best

Player I want most: Green-Ellis. With an annoyingly long name, I think the Pats will run the ball enough to get Green-Ellis some quality scores and yardage.

What to do with Stewart, Williams, and Bradshaw? All are pending free agents and it's very hard to tell of their value till they sign. Stewart right now looks to be the safest as he should return to Carolina where he will certainly run the ball a lot. With Best most likely splitting carries, it will tough for him to produce.

22-25: Redemption Backs: Cedric Benson, Ryan Matthews, Shonn Greene, Felix Jones

Player I want most: Shonn Greene. All of these backs were in some way a disappointment last season but I expect Matthews and Green in particular to put up good, if not great numbers. Greene will be of tremendous value for where is being picked and definitely worth a chance.

26-29: Fred Jackson, Ryan Grant, James Starks, Daniel Thomas

Player I want most: Ryan Grant. If Grant does retake the starter's role in Green Bay, I think he will pick up where he left off. That is about 1,200 yards and 4-6 TD's. But this is a big IF.

30-37: Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Torain, Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Williams, Joseph Addai, Mike Tolbert

Player I want most: Brandon Jacobs. If Bradshaw leaves, Jacobs will see his value spike. Either way, for a running back committee, he certainly makes the most of it and should produce touchdowns.

38-47: The Rest: C.J. Spiller, Michael Bush, Beanie Wells, LaDanian Tomlinson, Thomas Jones, Danny Woodhead, Montario Hardesty, Mike Goodson, Rashad Jennings, Ronnie Brown

Player I want most: Not really anyone besides Woodhead. I mean, who doesn't like that little guy. He's only got 2 inches on me. But of all of these, Spiller for sure has the most athletic potential and should see a fair amount of carries as Fred Jackson's backup. Rashad Jennings is a very necessary handcuff for MJD.

2011 Quarterback Sleepers

2011-07-21T12:27:00.003-05:00

QB Sleepers:

Josh Freeman: While he won’t go under the radar like he did last year, Freeman definitely has the talent to produce even better. I would not be surprised if he puts up top 10 maybe even top 7 numbers. With his running ability and improving Bucs' offense, he could be a steal in the middle rounds.

JaMarcus Russell: Last year, Plaxico Burress was ranked ahead of Russell in last year’s ESPN preseason rankings. What this means is that a man who was in jail was more likely to score more points than Russell. I expect Russell to consume at least 100 hot dogs and 250 Wendy’s Baconators during the season, with potential to exceed our expecations.

Kevin Kolb: With Larry Fitzgerald as his new best friend, Kolb has a chance to develop into a solid fantasy quarterback. He has shown flashes of potential but is still far from proven in limited starts. He sports a mediocre 73.2 passer rating but will have his chance to improve on that with a fresh new start. Kolb should definitely be available in the late rounds and is worth a shot as a solid backup and potential to be a low end starter.

Deeper QB Sleepers:

Tim Tebow: While many still question whether or not Tebow can be a capable quarterback in the NFL, I have no doubt in my mind he will. And despite my love for the greatest college quarterback, I do not expect that to happen this season. But Tebow has something that only Rodgers, Vick, and Freeman have: running ability. In the three games Tebow started, he scored 22, 22, and 27 fantasy points. He helped those few owners out who started him during the fantasy playoff weeks with very solid numbers. 51% of his fantasy points came from his rushing stats and that is why he is a decent fantasy option this season and a great late round pick. This is IF he starts.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: He started last year on fire and some people pegged him as a must start option. Teehee. Nope. But I do think Fitzpatrick, the Harvard grad, has some potential to come close to last year’s first half. While I would not neccessarily draft him, I would keep tabs on him for the week 8 bye of Rodgers, Ryan, and Freeman. Fitzpatrick has an excellent matchup against Washington’s defense.

Jason Campbell: A quarterback who has never lived up to expectations, Campbell has a chance for a decent year with loads of speed around him. Assuming Coach Tom Cable doesn’t randomly bench him for the incapable Bruce Gradkowski, don’t be surprised if Campbell finally puts in a good one.

2011 Fantasy QB Rankings

2011-07-21T12:21:00.004-05:00

Ranking Player Bye Week

1 Aaron Rodgers 8
2 Drew Brees 11
3   Michael Vick 7
4   Philip Rivers   6
5   Tom Brady   7
6   Peyton Manning 11
7   Tony Romo 5
8   Matt Schaub 11
9   Ben Roethlisberger 11
10 Matt Ryan 8
11 Josh Freeman 8
12 Joe Flacco   5
13 Sam Bradford   5
14 Matt Cassel   6
15 Eli Manning 7

Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Drew Brees
Player I rather have: Aaron Rodgers. Vick is a big risk in the first round for reasons stated in my previous article, but still an elite QB. Rodgers has proven himself after 3 spectacular seasons and has no reason to slow down with an offense that has even more potential this year.
Why is Brees here and not the next tier? He threw for a career high 22 interceptions last year, but also had a career high in 658 pass attempts. He has thrown for at least 33 touchdowns in the past three years and has easily eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in the past 5. He is much safer a pick than Vick.

Tier 2: Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning
Player I would rather have: Philip Rivers. While Manning and Brady are both benchmarks for consistency and always very safe and solid picks, I think Rivers’ potential and talent around him makes him a better option. That said, you clearly cannot go wrong with any of these players. Manning’s neck also worries me a little bit and so does Brady’s receiving corp. But has that ever stopped them?

Tier 3: Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger
Player I would rather have: Tony Romo. He was on pace for a monster season before an injury sidelined him. Dallas is loaded with talent and Romo looks to pick up where he left off. Before last season, he had three straight seasons of 26 or more touchdowns and two seasons with over 4,000 yards. Expect a big season from Romo.

Tier 4: Matt Ryan, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford,
Player I would rather have: Matt Ryan. Ryan exceeded expectations and had a great season throwing for 28 TD’s and 3,705 yards. With Julio Jones, I expect him to do just as well. The Falcons are still a run first, pound the ball team, but that shouldn’t keep you from drafting him.
This tier has several solid quarterbacks for those who miss out on the elite QB’s. The possibility of a 2 QB strategy starts here as one can take two of the above and play matchups, hot streaks, etc.

Tier 5: Matt Cassel, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Matt Stafford
Player I want on my team: Matt Stafford. Stafford has loads of potential on a vastly improving Lions team. He has stud Calvin Johnson to throw to and has potential to put up great numbers. The main concern is his injury risk as he has only played in 13 of 32 games. But for a late round flier, he could produce like a low-end number 1 option.
Players I never ever want on my team: Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel. Jay Cutler is just way too inconsistent for fantasy and the Chicago Bears. And Cassel really is just an average quarterback who completes under 60% of his passes. If you draft either of these, make sure to draft another solid quarterback for if and when these two go cold.

Nate Robinson to the NFL?

2011-07-15T13:55:00.002-05:00

Nate Robinson of the Oklahoma City Thunder declared recently that he may give the NFL a shot. This is in the midst of the NBA lockout. So, Nate, you're thinking of going from one locked out sport to another locked out sport. Okay. Hmm...

Well assuming Nate actually does give the NFL a shot, the question is if he actually make an NFL roster. At 5'9", 180 pounds, he is undersized but extremely athletic and agile with a 43 inch vertical. In high school, he played running back, wide receiver and defensive back. But if he were to play in the NFL, I think DB would be most suitable. Many people do not know that Robinson actually played one year of college ball at the University of Washington and recorded 34 tackles and 2 interceptions as a cornerback (gohuskies.com). Not bad eh?

Fantasy football implications:
Let's say, for instance, Nate becomes a running back. I see him as a surefire 2nd round pick and no lower than the 3rd round. After all, we've seen so many athlete transitions from the NBA to the NFL... I think Robinson will be best suited for the Seahawks where he can sport his Kryptonite green, leaving defenders helpless. His only goal will be to score touchdowns so he can show off his decent dunking ability on the goal post. With his slam dunk experience, I expect nothing less than him passing to himself with a sweet underhand lob, leaping over his lineman, catching the ball and going through the legs. This should leave him in the open field for some big gains.

So once you take Nate Robinson in the 2nd round, you should definitely look at a similar Nate in the 3rd round. Just 3 inches shorter, white, and a sleek 150 pounds, Nate Amodio showed potential in the latest intramural football season. He is relative unknown in the football world, but could make a splash if he improves on his 10 TD's to 12 picks and 1-3 record. With Robinson as your starting running back and Amodio at your starting quarterback, I don't see how your season can go wrong.

Here are some of Nate Robinson's high school highlights for those interested.

Michael Vick, the Number One Pick?

2011-07-14T16:24:00.002-05:00

Michael Vick’s reemergence last season with Philadelphia was the fantasy story of the year and led countless owners to fantasy championships. His 57 point outburst against Washington in week 10 ranks as one of the best performances in history and is one of the reasons some people are considering Vick as the number 1 overall pick in this upcoming fantasy season. My response to that: NO. Nope. Don’t fall for it. No.

There is no doubt Vick is extremely gifted and is a top 5 fantasy quarterback, but number 1 overall? I just do not see it. For starters, there are two extremely safe options in Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson and maybe even Arian Foster. There is a huge ceiling for Vick, but I think the risk is too great for the number 1 pick. With Vick, there are several concerns that I have with him.

We all know that much of Vick’s fantasy value stems from his uncanny rushing ability and last year was no exception. For his career, Vick’s rushing stats have accounted for 42.3 % of his total fantasy output. Last year was surprisingly low as his rushing totals accounted for only 38 % of his total. However, his 9 rushing touchdowns in just 12 games contributed to much of that, putting Vick into the elite quarterback category. Now imagine that for a full season! But wait, even for Vick, that will be extremely hard to repeat as rushing touchdowns vary greatly year to year. For his 4 previous full seasons, Vick averaged 4.75 rushing touchdowns a season. Vick should be good for about 5 rushing touchdowns a year, but 9 just seems highly unlikely again. While 5 is good and a great bonus for a quarterback, it wont be enough to make me draft Vick first.

Anyone remember when Braylon Edwards scored 16 touchdowns in 2007 and then bet next year he would have twice as many touchdown as Michael Phelps had gold medals? Well, he had 3 the next season. I think Phelps won that bet… While Edwards is not on the talent level of Vick, my point is that touchdown production is tough to match on a yearly basis. And with regards to rushing touchdowns, the fluctuation among individuals is great and can vary based on a number of factors. For Vick to match 9 would require many things to go right.

Will we be seeing Vick on the sideline this year?

And the thing that scares me most of Michael Vick is him being one of the most hit quarterbacks in the league. In just 12 games last season, Vick was sacked 34 times and hit often on scrambles.Vick was sacked at the fourth highest rate in the league and the hits will continue. Vick is no doubt electric, but taking so many hits can make fantasy owners cringe. It could be only a matter of time before he is on the sideline. After all, in his 8 seasons in the league, Vick has played just ONE full season.

Another interesting stat is Vick’s completion percentage from last year. He set a career high with a percentage of 62.6 %, more than 6 percent higher than his previous career high. This can attributed to not only his personal improvement, but the best talent he has ever had around him. But such a high jump worries me that it will be tough to match once again. Along these lines, he threw for 3,000 yards for just the first time in his career and had a sky high yards per completion. This is partly because of the talent surrounding him and the Eagles ranking 8th in yards after catch according to hosted.stats.com. If anything, these could be seen as signs that Vick will continue to improve and be a fantasy stud. But should he be the number 1 pick?

The answer is still no. But would I take him 6th? Maybe. 10th? There’s a good chance. Early 2nd round? Not even a question in my mind. For Vick, consistency is still an issue and I would much rather have Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson before him. My top 2 quaterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are extremely consistent and have proven their worth of being picked late in the 1st round. Drafting any quarterback early is a risky strategy as you could easily miss out on an elite running back, even with a deep class this year. But Vick has unlimited fantasy potential and could make or break someone’s season. For risk takers, Vick is a perfect fit around the 5th pick and could be a steal even there. He could also be a huge letdown, and leave you looking for, gulp, Rex Grossman on the waivers.

Stats found on nfl.com and hosted.stats.com

MLB All Star Game

2011-07-12T19:47:00.003-05:00

Just some quick thoughts on the MLB All Star game. A record 84 All-Stars were selected this year. 84! This is simply ridiculous. Based on players who qualify for the batting average or ERA titles, this means that 23% of the MLB players are All-Stars. Do I think that 1 of every 4 baseball players is an All-Star? Heck no! At least my fantasy baseball team saw 9 of our 16 players go to the All-Star game. Not bad eh? But I mean, it is a fantasy team so this should happen.

Something needs to change about these All-Star games. The Pro Bowl is pointless and boring, and the MLB All-Star game simply should not determine who gets home field advantage. I think both the NFL and MLB should take a page from the NHL All-Star game. They need more skills competitions and something, anything to make the game semi-meaningful.

INTRO

2011-07-12T15:53:00.003-05:00

Well, the fantasy football season is approaching and I thought I would finally start up my blog.

For starters, I would like to say some things about myself. I am 19 years old and am a student at the University of Illinois. I have gone from mechanical engineering to computer science engineering and I will finally be changing to statistics. I have read box scores since I was 3 and can’t imagine doing something without numbers or sports. For the past year, I rarely wore shoes. I have taken on the manly challenge of walking barefoot all the time. No matter the weather. However, I have heard that this is not manly, but rather idiotic. Perhaps the thorn that is currently lodged in my toe is a testament to the stupidity. Besides football, my favorite sport to play is Ultimate Frisbee. My rec team at U of I won this past year and it is a blast doing the famous Aaron Rodgers belt celebration in opponent’s smug faces.

Two of my favorite things are Jesus and football. I love God and believe that Jesus is a life changer. By no means do I want to shove Jesus down people’s throats in this blog, but I love talking about Jesus and am always open to talking about my faith. As for football, I have never actually played organized football, but have a great passion for the game and the best team in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers. My intramural football team has started practicing months in advance and we are looking at an intramural championship in the near future. With me at quarterback and plenty of belt celebrations to come, I cannot wait for the season.

As for my credentials for writing a blog about mainly fantasy football, I have played since age 12. I was in one league that year and won it. Since then, I average around 10 leagues or more per season (yeah, I know that’s a lot) and have made the playoffs in over 60% of them. A great year will usually be winning 5 of 10 leagues, which indeed has happened. I also do 3 fantasy baseball leagues per year and have found success thanks to the greatest baseball guru I know, Kubs. He is a Diamonbacks fan and can literally name every prospect in their organization as well as the top 100 or so prospects in the majors. Deep stuff yo. He may contribute some baseball knowledge to this blog in the future.

So finally, here is a brief rundown of this blog.

What this blog will contain:

Tips on how to domiNATE your fantasy league
Fantasy football player profiles
Statistical analysis on various football and baseball related topics
Current sports events and media
Manliness
Ultimate Frisbee
Intramural football updates
Stuff I have learned about Jesus and my expression of love for Him
My expression of love for Aaron Rodgers and Tim Tebow

What this blog will not contain:

Soccer
Tips that will worsen your chances of winning your fantasy league
Soccer
Me reminiscing of my little league baseball dominance despite my chubby stature and glasses/croakie combination
One more time for good measure: anything, anything at all that could possibly include even the mentioning of Soccer