2012 Running Back Tiers

Tier 1: The Elite
1. Arian Foster
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Ray Rice

Who I want the most: LeSean McCoy. I love Arian Foster. I love Ray Rice. But like last year, I really love LeSean McCoy. And after these guys, well, let's just say the running backs are a crap-shoot. These are hands down the elite, the most proven, and the closest to a surefire running back you will get this year. So why McCoy? In the explosive Eagles offense, McCoy piled up 1,600 all purpose yards and twenty touchdowns. Even if his touchdowns decrease, he will still be a top five back. "Shady" had only 273 carries last year and is just 24 years old. He also does not have a Ben Tate guy who could steal his carries. And while Rice might be the safest choice here, I'll take McCoy and his ridiculously high upside.

Tier 2: The "Sigh, I Don't Get an Elite Running Back..."
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
5. Chris Johnson
6. Ryan Mathews
7. Matt Forte

Who I want the most: Matt Forte. As consistent as MJD has been, this could be the year he falls off. MJD just tallied a 380 touch season and to his dismay, he has Blaine Gabbert as his quarterback. Meanwhile, Forte now heads up what could be the best Chicago offense in years. Even if Michael Bush takes away some carries, Forte will still be the center of attention. Last year, Forte was on pace to lead the league in yards from scrimmage and he has the chance to do the same. As sad as I am to recommend drafting a Bears player, Forte is your guy.

Bust alert: Chris Johnson. For a guy who ran for 2,000 yards in 2009, he has been on a steady decline since. His yards per carry have gone from 5.6 to 4.3 to 4.0. Will he ever run again like he did in 2009? Maybe his "get away from the cops speed" will return. Or maybe he will disappoint multitudes of owners again.

Tier 3: These Guys Might Really Be My Best Running Back?
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. DeMarco Murray
10. Steven Jackson
11. Trent Richardson

Who I want the most: Steven Jackson. He may actually go a round later than most of these guys and he should be a pretty safe pick. Then again, no one outside the top 3 is safe this year. He isn't flashy, nor is his offensive line any good, but he gets the job done. Only Isaiah Peed can take away carries but, Jackson will still be the man. Richardson has the highest upside here as will be the best playmaker on the Browns. With that said, he could be line for a Adrian Peterson rookie-like year. Then again, he is on the Browns...

Tier 4: The Hospital Bed
12. Darren McFadden
13. Jamaal Charles
14. Adrian Peterson
15. Fred Jackson

Who I want the most: Adrian Peterson. He's a freak. He's a monster. He can overcome a little ACL injury. Well, maybe. If you take a look at previous great running backs before and after ACL injuries, then you know things do not look bright. But of all the players here, Peterson is your guy. Even if he doesn't start the season healthy, he will be back sooner than later and can put up his usual numbers. Charles is splitting with Peyton Hillis. McFadden, I'm pretty sure has a spot reserved in the Oakland hospital. And Fred Jackson now has C.J. Spiller to split carries with. Go with Peterson. And pray. Lots.

Tier 5: The Okee Dokee
16. Michael Turner
17. Frank Gore
18. Roy Helu
19. Darren Sproles
20. Ahmad Bradshaw

Who I want the most: Michael Turner. Many are predicting a steep decline for Turner. While the age is there and the carries are piling up, I do not see Turner declining as much as people think. Atlanta is still a run first offense and Turner has been stellar the past two seasons. Gore is risky. So is Bradshaw. And my goodness, I do not think I will draft another Redskins running back as long as Mike Shanahan is there. Roy Helu looks like the man which probably means he is indeed not the man. And Darren Sproles is a fantastic PPR option and just an average standard league option.

Tier 6: The Cedric Benson Tier
21. Benjarvus Green-Ellis
22. Reggie Bush
23. Shonn Greene
24. Jonathan Stewart
25. Ben Tate

Who I want the most: BGE. Hands down. He will get plenty of carries and will "thrive" like Benson in the Bengals pound it relentlessly offense. He has yet to fumble in his career and in the past two seasons, he has 24 touchdowns! You can definitely expect Benson-like numbers or better this season.

Bust alert: Shonn Greene and Reggie Bush. Bush has Daniel Thomas AND Lamar Miller, both of whom may cut into his carries. And Shonne Greene. Man, I'm starting to dislike this guy. My favorite sleeper the past two seasons were met with nothing spectacular. He did end the season strong, but with Tim Tebow there, he may actually lose some goaline carries. Of course, the year I predict him to do nothing is the year he will break out. Just wait, feel free to take him just because I said he will continue to be the worthless underachieving running back he is.

Tier 7: The Uninspiring
26. Jahvid Best
27. Wilis McGahee
28. Isaac Redman
29. DeAngelo Williams
30. Beanie Wells

Who I want the most: Isaac Redman. None of these guys may get through a full season. Best is the definition of a boom or bust player. McGahee is the definition of a 31 year old running back. Wells is a lock for less than 16 games and Williams will be running alongside Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert. Did I convince you on Redman?

Tier 8: The Back-ups
31. Mark Ingram
32. Stevan Ridley
33. C.J. Spiller
34. Peyton Hillis
35. Michael Bush
36. Doug Martin

Who I want the most: Doug Martin. If only LeGarrette Blount would just go. Or fumble the ball away lots like last year. Martin has perhaps the highest upside here given he will get a good chunk of the carries. But all the guys here are great options especially if injuries happen to their counterparts.

Tier 9: What? There're Actually Starters Here?
37. James Starks
38. Donald Brown
39. Toby Gerhart
40. LeGarrette Blount
41. David Wilson
42. Daniel Thomas

Who I want the most: Donald Brown. He could be a nice surprise this season. If Andrew Luck and the offense get rolling, Brown figures to play a key role. Of all these guys, he has little competition and could be a great late round flier.

Tier 10: The Rest
43. Kevin Smith
44. Pierre Thomas
45. Shane Vereen
46. Brandon Jacobs
47. Jonathan Dwyer
48. Ryan Williams
49. Felix Jones
50. Bernard Scott

Who I want the most: Kevin Smith. He had his out of nowhere game last year against Carolina, then managed just two okay games after. He still has the highest upside of the bunch and is emerging as the possible starter in Detroit. Take a chance.

Early 2012 Tight End Tiers

Tier 1: Gronk
1. Rob Gronkowski

Who I want the most: Brandon Manumaleuna. Just kidding, but I always get a kick out of his name. Last year, Gronkowski may have been the biggest difference maker of ANY fantasy player. Take away all his touchdowns and he is still the number TWO tight end! He ranked right behind Calvin Johnson for all WR/TE and would give you the biggest positional advantage in fantasy football. He is worth a first round pick (although I still have reservations in taking a tight end in the first) and he, barring injury, will without a doubt be a top five tight end.

Tier 2: The Elite
2. Jimmy Graham
3. Antonio Gates

Who I want the most: Jimmy Graham. Graham was sixth among all receivers in targets last year and has freak Antonio Gates-like potential. And speaking of Gates, injury concerns and Philip Rivers throwing to the other team concerns make him a moderate risk this year. For those who do not want to use a first rounder on Gronk, Graham is a great option in the late second or early third round.

Tier 3: The Near Elite
4. Jason Witten
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Vernon Davis

Who I want the most: Jermichael Finley. None of these options are nearly as appealing as last year but they round out the cream of the crop. Finley has all the potential in the world, but has been a disappointment. His drops are as aggravating as ever and he was a mark of inconsistency. He had only four double digit games but still ranked as the number five tight end. He has the highest ceiling of this group and hopefully he does not actually "freestyle" too much this year.

Tier 4: The Solid
7. Aaron Hernandez
8. Jacob Tamme
9. Tony Gonzalez
10. Brandon Pettigrew

Who I want the most: Jacob Tamme. I'm much higher on Tamme than others but I think he will have a fantastic year with as Manning's top tight end. Remember when Dallas Clark went down and Tamme stepped up? Well, now Tamme has a chance to really gel with Manning, and he will be one of Manning's top options. Take a chance on him as you can get him much later than other tight ends. And as we have seen in many of the past years, once we get out of the top five, most tight ends will produce almost the same.

Tier 5: The Rest
11. Fred Davis
12. Jared Cook
13. Owen Daniels
14. Dustin Keller
15. Jermaine Gresham
16. Kellen Winslow
17. Lance Kendricks
18. Brent Celek
19. Coby Fleener
20. Greg Olsen

Who I want the most: Owen Daniels. Even though the Texans have gravitated towards a run-heavy offense, Daniels is the proven and still has great potential. 

Sleeper: Jermaine Gresham. Gresham was very solid last year and can blossom as Andy Dalton continues to improve. Take a chance on him late if you are not very confident in your number one tight end.

Deep Sleeper: Lance Kendricks. He has flashed potential but never really had a chance to prove himself. On a team that lacks superstar receivers, this could finally be Kendricks' year. If Sam Bradford bounces back, Kendricks should produce like a top 12 tight end.

Early 2012 Wide Receiver Tiers

Tier 1: The Elite
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Roddy White
4. Andre Johnson

Who I want the most: Roddy White. Honestly, the Madden curse does scare me. It really does. While I would love Calvin Johnson, he will likely go in the top 8 which is just a bit too high for me. Even with the emergence of Julio Jones, White will still be the man. White still led the league with 182 targets last year. He will not be forgotten. And with Michael Turner on the decline, White will be in for another stellar year.

Bust alert: Andre Johnson. He is still elite, yes. But, too many injury concerns and a more run-oriented team makes me less likely to pick Johnson this year. This doesn't mean you neccessarily pass on him; just be cautious and make sure he is your guy.

Tier 2: The Near Elite
5. Wes Welker
6. Greg Jennings
7. Mike Wallace

Who I want the most: Wes Welker. He always seems to be drafted a little lower than most big time receivers. But he remains one of the most consistent and productive receivers of the past. Last year, he was completely healthy and had the second most targets, second most receiving yards, and most catches of anyone. He remains a PPR monster and is a rock solid pick. Mike Wallace is in a close second as he is no longer just a deep threat, but now an all around fantasy wide receiver. And while I love Jennings, the emergence of Nelson and the mix of Jermichael Finley and Randall Cobb make it tougher to depend on Jennings as a true number 1 wideout.

Tier 3: Still Number 1's
8. A.J. Green
9. Hakeem Nicks
10. Steve Smith
11. Brandon Marshall

Who I want the most: A.J. Green. This kid can play. With him and Andy Dalton having one year officially under their belt, things can only go up. In just 116 targets, Green produced 1,057 yards and 7 touchdowns as just a rookie. I would not be surprised to see him at more around 1,400 yards and double digit touchdowns this year.

New team: Brandon Marshall. He is reunited with Jay Cutler and could explode this season. He was looked at as a risky pick last season but still produced. Now, although still a bit risky due to his looming personality disorder, he could be a steal and produce like a clear-cut number 1 receiver.

Tier 4: Can They Do It Again?
12. Jordy Nelson
13. Victor Cruz
14. Julio Jones
15. Dez Bryant

Who I want the most: Jordy Nelson. This may be because he is a Packer in this case, but Nelson really played like an elite last year. And, he has this beast by the name of Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Nelson is a big play threat every down and can put up monster weeks. But this entire group is extremely young and talented. Cruz and Jones exploded onto the scene last year and Cruz may have the toughest time replicating his numbers. The question for all of these studs is: Can they do it again?

Tier 5: The Less Certain
16. Brandon Lloyd
17. Miles Austin
18. Percy Harvin
19. Marques Colston
20. Demaryius Thomas

Player I want the most: Brandon Lloyd. Tom Brady. Enough said. For the first time in his career, Lloyd gets an elite quarterback to throw to him. Even though there are many options in New England, Lloyd could be the defensive backs forget about. Remember his monster season in Denver with Kyle Orton throwing to him? Well, hello Tom Brady. And, Lloyd did an awesome video for the Madden cover. This will make anyone want to draft him.

Tier 6: Potential
21. Vincent Jackson
22. Steve Johnson
23. Kenny Britt
24. Jeremy Maclin
25. Dwayne Bowe

Player I want the most: Kenny Britt. I like this guy more than others do and here's why: big game potential. He is a bit of a risk, but could be well worth it. In a semi-healthy 2010 season, he put up nearly 800 yards and 9 touchdowns in just 12 games. There's potential, but he may be the biggest risk of this group.

AVOID AVOID AVOID: Dwayne Bowe. Like I said last year, he has Matt Cassel throwing him the ball. We saw his numbers dip big time last year. Sadly, it could happen again.

Tier 7: Upside
26. Antonio Brown
27. Eric Decker
28. Robert Meachem
29. DeSean Jackson
30. Santonio Holmes
31. Pierre Garcon
32. Lance Moore
33. Malcolm Floyd

Who I want the most: Antonio Brown and Eric Decker. I love the upside Garcon with RGIII here, but I cannot resist Antonio Brown. He came out of nowhere to become one of Big Ben's favorite targets last season and produced 1108 yards with 69 catches. He should be the most consistent of this bunch and is worth the mid round pick. I also cannot resist Decker. He has more NFL style experience than his counterpart Demaryius Thomas and has potential to be a PPR machine. Hear it now, I would not be surprised if Decker finishes in the top 10 for wide receivers.

Tier 8: Youngins' Surrounded by Oldies
34. Anquan Boldin
35. Denarius Moore
36. Torrey Smith
37. Reggie Wayne

Who I want the most: Reggie Wayne. When was the last time Wayne was not drafted in the top 10? Let's say, oh, 2004. He certainly has lost a step, but he could be a steal if he and Luck click. Don't get your hopes too high. But at this spot, Wayne is a very low risk, high reward pick.

Tier 9: The Rest
38. Michael Crabtree
39. Sidney Rice
40. Darrius Heyward-Bey
41. Justin Blackmon
42. Nate Washington
43. Titus Young
44. Laurent Robinson
45. Rueben Randle
46. Randy Moss
47. Mike Williams
48. Mario Manningham
49. Leonard Hankerson
50. Greg Little

Who I want the most: Sidney Rice. There's no one with major upside here and nothing exciting either. But Rice has Matt Flynn who could either boom or bust in Seattle. Rice has had only one good season and that was with Brett Favre. And thank goodness Tavaris Jackson should no longer be throwing to him. Clearly, that has not worked out. And take a flier on Randy Moss if he is available late. He could be quite the steal... Or literally do nothing.

Early 2012 Quarterback Tiers

Tier 1: The Mega Elite
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady

Who I want the most: Aaron Rodgers. This is quite possibly the easiest decision in this draft. Aaron Rodgers never once scored less than 20 points last season, unless you count week 17 against the Lions when Matt Flynn went off. He scored over 30 points seven times and 40 points twice. Aaron Rodgers was no doubt the most consistent and highest scoring quarterback, and he still believes that he has room for improvement. He has a legitimate case to be number one overall, but is nevertheless a top 5 overall pick.

Tier 2: The Elite
3. Drew Brees
4. Cam Newton
5. Matt Stafford

Who I want the most: Drew Brees. While this is a tough call, Brees is hands down the most proven of the bunch. Stafford is still an injury concern and there is no way I expect Newton to replicate his 14 rushing touchdowns. While the Saints are a bit troublesome with the whole bounty scandal, expect Brees to still be one of the safest and best picks of the draft.

Tier 3: The Rock Solid Value
6. Tony Romo
7. Michael Vick
8. Philip Rivers
9. Eli Manning
10. Peyton Manning

Who I want the most: Michael Vick. This year, Vick is a bargain. Rather than being drafted in the first round like last year, Vick should slip past the second and be available between the 3rd and 5th rounds. Jump on him. Last year's disappointment still ranked him 11th among all quarterbacks even with only 13 games played. And while I expected his rushing touchdowns from 2010 to decrease, I did not expect a 1 rushing touchdown season. He still averaged 8 yards a carry last season and has elite potential. Take your chances, but be sure to get a solid backup in case of injury.

Bust potential: Philip Rivers. While I was high on Rivers last year, this year worries me. Ryan Mathews is becoming a feature back and Rivers lost Vincent Jackson. While Rivers should still produce, he is more of a risk than previous years.

Tier 4: The Producers
11. Ben Roethlisberger
12. Matt Ryan
13. Matt Schaub

Who I want the most: Ben Roethlisberger. He has weapons in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. He also no longer has Rashard Mendenhall, which may actually help Big Ben's numbers. They will rely more on their passing attack and I think Roethlisberger will finish as a top 10 quarterback. Matt Ryan, who ranked in the top 10 last year, could also be a bargain with Turner aging and elite weapons in Roddy White and Julio Jones. If you miss out on any of the top 10 guys, do not be afraid to jump on either of these two.

Tier 5: The Rest
14. Jay Cutler
15. Robert Griffin III
16. Joe Flacco
17. Josh Freeman
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick
19. Andrew Luck
20. Tim Tebow

Who I want the most: Robert Griffin III. Or Tim Tebow. Griffin has huge upside in an above average offense in Washington. His running ability puts him into the Vick/Newton territory as he should benefit from 500+ rushing yards and around 5 rushing touchdowns. And as for Tim Tebow, well you know, I love him. Do not draft him, but keeps tabs on him because there is one current starting quarterback I could see Tebow overtaking. And that man is Mark Sanchez.

Sleeper Potential: Jay Cutler. As much as it pains me to say this, Cutler could be in for a big season. He is reunited with Brandon Marshall and has solid options in Chicago. With an offensive line that improved as the year went along, Cutler might actually see time in the pocket. While I won't be surprised to see his pouty face multiple times, Cutler might finally produce a better than average season.

Extra Sleeper: Nate Amodio. This season, instead of being a Woodhead/Tebow hybrid, he will be called upon to be the Aaron Rodgers of the returning playoff team, the Pineapple Chunkers. With an excellent scrimmage in the offseason already, his arm looks sharp and his decision making has been great. However, a second pulled hammy in 4 months is making him less than a surefire option. And he needs his mobility to be top-notch because as you all know, he can barely see over his own lineman in the pocket. But given a healthy body and handlebar mustache, I expect nothing less than excellence.

Deep Sleeper: JaMarcus Russell. I can't imagine waking this guy up. He slept through 3 NFL seasons.

This Summer

Those of you who actually follow this blog probably have noticed that I have not blogged for a long time. That is because I am working up at Cedar Campus in Michigan serving others and figuring out what God has in store for my life.

So. My blogging will be severely limited until early August when I plan to go on a draft prep rampage. This looks to be a crazy year in fantasy football as we will have some very interesting drafts. Hopefully, your league will draft after I get back to blogging because let's face it, you are probably in deep trouble without my help.

But to help you out just a bit before I am gone for the summer, here are my top 12 quarterbacks and top 12 overall.

Top 12 QB's 2012
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Matt Stafford
5. Cam Newton
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
8. Michael Vick
9. Eli Manning
10. Peyton Manning
11. Matt Schaub
12. Ben Roethlisberger

In August I will give the full breakdown and explanations of quarterbacks. Expect things to change slightly and headaches to occur once we get into the 4-10 range. There is lots of ELITE potential this year, but lots of risk and uncertainty surrounding the non-Rodgers non-Brady QB's. (Brees would be here if there was not so much uncertainty with the Saints.)

Top 12 Overall 2012
1. Arian Foster
2. Ray Rice
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Maurice Jones-Drew
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Chris Johnson
8. Tom Brady
9. Larry Fitzgerald
10. Drew Brees
11. Rob Gronkowski
12. Greg Jennings

First time I would ever consider taking a tight end in the first round. And first time there could be a strong argument for taking a quarterback first overall (sorry, Vick). Crazy draft. Get it!