Love/Hate Players: 2013

Here it is folks. My master list. Players I love. And players I hate. I do this every year and would recommend that everyone come up with a list of their own for draft preparation. And if you don't? Well, use mine and maybe you'll win four of eight leagues like I did last year. All kidding aside, enjoy this fantasy season and do some damage.

Player denotations:

Player name, position, team (Average Draft Position, My Draft Position): Reasons 

Here are the players that I LOVE:

Matt Stafford, QB, Lions (58.0, 50) VALUE, COMEBACK: Stafford has now put together back-to-back full seasons after being labeled injury prone in his first two. And while Stafford's pass attempts increased last year, every major statistical category got worse. Why? Perhaps mechanics, drops, or Calvin Johnson getting tackled at the one yard line at least five times. Still, he finished tenth among quarterbacks and probably can't be worse than last year. He is well worth a five or sixth rounder (I recently got him in the seventh) and has legitimate top five potential. He represents great value in a deep quarterback class and I expect him to comeback and return to numbers closer to his 2011 season.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (80.4, 66) VALUE, UNDERRATED: Romo has been underrated in fantasy for a long time. Since 2007, he has never thrown less than 26 touchdowns or less than 4,000 yards (besides his injured 2010 season). Like Stafford, Romo brings tremendous value for being the 12th quarterback off the board. He finished eighth last season and for being an eighth round pick, he may be one of the biggest bargains this season. 

Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins (48.1, 41) VALUE: RGIII would be going higher if there was not so much uncertainty with his injury. He finished in the top five for quarterbacks last year and could easily crack the top five again. While there are injury concerns, getting him 30 picks later than Peyton Manning (who scored the same as RGIII last year), is a great value. If he's there in the fifth round, I'll take him.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans (24.4, Ahead of Forte, Gore, MJD) VALUE, COMEBACK, TEAM IMPROVEMENTS: CJ2K might finally be back. A vastly improved offensive line and another year of experience for Jake Locker bodes well for Johnson. He's always had big play potential but has a great chance to find some consistency this year. While he may not return close to 2,000 yards, I do expect him to make a comeback and possibly crack the top 10 this year.

Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins (67.3, 52) VALUE, THE MAN, SLEEPER: Like Bell, Miller figures to be "the man" this year. Daniel Thomas has been uninspiring and Miller brings 4.40 speed to a revamped Miami offense. Assuming Miller does take the majority of carries, I think he has great potential to be a top 15 running back. Keep your eye on him on draft day and pull the trigger before someone else does.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles (12.4, Ahead of Richardson, Morris) TEAM IMPROVEMENTS, COMEBACK: I loved Shady last year but he was underutilized and missed three games. But Chip Kelly's offense will surely use him to the fullest and I expect a big comeback on his part. Hopefully improved quarterback play, a speedy offensive line, and an up-tempo offense will resurrect McCoy. Especially in PPR leagues, McCoy is a fantastic option over the likes of Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson.

Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams (96.9, 75) VALUE, THE MAN: Richardson represents the last starting running back you can get in the draft. But for him to go in the 11th round says a lot about his team and himself. Nonetheless, he brings value as such a late pick especially with Isaiah Pead's suspension and fumbling troubles. Richardson figures to be "the man" and should be snatched up as a solid backup.

Reggie Bush, RB, Lions (45.7, Ahead of McFadden, Ball, Sproles) VALUE, THE MAN, PPR: Detroit running backs Mikel Leshore and Joique Bell caught a combined 86 passes last year. Now in comes Reggie, and I expect him to not only get most of those but to also get most of the carries. Bush is one of the better of the lackluster running backs going in the fourth to fifth round and carries great value in PPR leagues.

Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders (Undrafted, 150): SLEEPER, INJURY-PRONE STARTER, PPR: If McFadden gets hurt this year, which history says will happen at some point, then Reece will figure to be in line for carries. But his real potential is in PPR leagues where last year he compiled 52 catches. And in the three games where he did receive 10 or more carries, he scored a combined 37 points. Not bad.

Randall Cobb, WR, Packers (35.7, Ahead of Welker, Johnson, Jackson) BREAKOUT, PPR: He's my breakout candidate for this year. With favorite Greg Jennings gone Cobb is the guy in Green Bay. He has the potential for 100 catches and the only thing that might stop him is his teammates. James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and even Jermichael Finley will get plenty of targets as well keeping Cobb from being a true number one option. But I'll draft Cobb within the first 10 receiver picks with no hesitation.

Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers (124.9, 115) SLEEPER, OPPORTUNITY: If he stays healthy, Brown could really turn heads. He came into the NFL as a polished, NFL-ready receiver who could run great routes. Unfortunately, injuries have doomed him. But he finally might be ready and now the injury of Danario Alexander has paved way. Keep an eye on his health during the preseason and if he looks healthy, he could develop into a solid number two option.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs (56.8, 49) TEAM IMPROVEMENTS, VALUE: Goodbye, Matt Cassel. Hello, Alex Smith. Hello, offensive line. Bowe finally has a decent quarterback and team.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers (67.8, 57) UNDERRATED, VALUE, THE MAN, SLEEPER: Brown failed to impress when I thought he would last year. But with Mike Wallace finally out of the picture, it's Brown's time to shine. He's got elusive speed and solid hands and is trusted by Big Ben to get first downs. He's underrated and a great sleeper to target this year.

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens (69.8, 61) VALUE, THE MAN, BREAKOUT: Assuming Joe Flacco is still Joe Flacco, then Smith will still have inconsistent numbers. But he is Flacco's best option and I expect Smith to breakout this year. He flashed potential with big games against New England and San Diego last year. Let's hope he can do that more often now.

Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars (82.6, 75): VALUE, SLEEPER: On a team with such bad quarterback play, it's impressive that he put up nine double digit games. While he is dealing with concussion problems, Shorts is a great sleeper that makes this such a deep wide receiver pool.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts (87.6, 74) VALUE, SLEEPER: Hilton impressed last year with blazing speed and he earned the trust of Andrew Luck. As Reggie Wayne continues to age, Hilton will be relied on more heavily and can improve on his impressive rookie campaign. He is currently listed as the number three receiver. But that folks, will change.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers (112.0, 100) SLEEPER: Paired alongside Antonio Brown, Sanders has a chance to finally make some noise. Expect a lot of short passes going his way and solid production as a number three receiver.

Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (119.7, 105): SLEEPER

Greg Little, WR, Browns (155.6, 140): SLEEPER

Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns (129.7, 100) RAW, SLEEPER, TEAM IMPROVEMENTS: All three of the guys should benefit from the scheme change in Cleveland. Brandon Weeden has looked much better compared to last season and Cameron and Gordon have looked fantastic this preseason. Granted, it is preseason, but it's worth noting. And hear this: Cameron has the potential to be the next Jimmy Graham. Maybe it won't be this year as he still has a lot to learn of the game, but he has looked great in the Browns' vertical offense.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots (45.9, 45) THE MAN (when healthy): Despite missing five games last season, Gronk finished second among tight ends in points. So even if he does miss the first six games, that's mean you can still have the best tight end for the last 10 games. And the fifth ranked tight end and fifteenth ranked tight end really aren't too different so any backup will suffice. He's worth a pick and if he does managed to come back sooner than expected, then you have a steal.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers (103.2, 90) OPPORTUNITY: Love might be a little strong of a word for Jermichael Finley. How about just "like moderately more than this continually disappointing bum." With Greg Jennings gone, Finley might finally live up to the hype. His drops have always been a problem but they've always been mental, not physical. Packers' reporter Vic Ketchman says Finley has the best hands on the team and that Finley has zoned in this season and has a new found focus. If Finley finally earns the trust of Rodgers, he will be a steal.

Tim Tebow, QB/FB/TE, Patriots (N/A, Never) MAN CRUSH: I love him. Just not in fantasy. Nor for his real life skill.

Here are the players that I HATE:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (9.5, 15) DEPTH, TOO HIGH: I love him. He will be a top five quarterback easily. But he is not worth a first round pick. Not with this kind of depth at quarterback and lack of depth at running back.

Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady DEPTH, TOO HIGH: Same issue here. None of these guys are worth where they are going. But if you can get Brees in the third and Manning/Brady in the fourth, that's where you'll find value.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks (61.2, Behind Romo, Luck) INJURIES, DECLINE: With Percy Harvin out for a while, Wilson's value certainly takes a hit. I do not think there will be much improvement over last season and think it's more likely than not that he will finish out of the top 10 for quarterbacks.

Montee Ball, RB, Broncos (43.8, 50) ROOKIE, RB COMPETITION, TOO HIGH: He has done nothing to take hold of the top spot in Denver and is struggling with blitz pickup. Those are bad signs for a team with Peyton Manning. Expect modest production for a guy whose ceiling is that of Joseph Addai's.

Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins (12.0, Behind McCoy) DECLINE: The odds of Morris replicating his phenomenal rookie season are slim. And if Mike Shanahan ever goes back to his old ways of rotating running backs like crazy, then you've got a interesting pick here.

Trent Richardson, RB, Browns (10.2, Behind McCoy) INJURY-PRONE: Cleveland's offense is a major sleeper this year in part of Richardson. But he has been banged up his whole career and could turn into a Brian-Westbrook-like player: Great numbers but not on the field enough. He could be a stud, but he could also crush the playoff hopes of your team.

Packers’ Running Backs: TOO MANY, UNCERTAINTY, NO “THE MAN”: Eddie Lacy is starting to look like "the man" but the situation is a huge unknown. Lacy and DuJuan Harris figure to be most involved but at best they'll split carries. And even James Starks, Johnathan Franklin, or Alex Green could take some carries. Avoid this situation.

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders (39.0, 48) INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE: This is a yearly concern. McFadden has never played more than 13 games in a season. He's like Brian Westbrook but not even as good. Therefore, it is simple. Don't draft him unless he plummets.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (46.3, 55) INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE: Read about Darren McFadden.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans (30.4, 37) INJURY-PRONE, AGE, RUN-HEAVY: Johnson rebounded from an off season and put up great numbers in Houston. Unfortunately, he is not getting younger and the Texans remain a run-heavy team. He is the perfect case of a high-risk, high-reward player.

Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers (79.6, 90) OLD, SLOW, RUN-HEAVY: He is old and, despite a great playoff run, he remains a mediocre fantasy option. He has not topped 1,000 yards or 7 touchdowns over the past three years. In other words, don't count on the young Anquan to show up.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants (55.3, 65) INJURY-PRONE, DEPTH: Nicks' days as a borderline number one receiver could be over. He has never played a whole season and is in a position where there is loads of talent. I'd rather get someone like Shorts or Hilton much later in the draft.

Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins (48.2, 55) NEW TEAM, UNDERACHIEVER: This pick rides heavily on the progression of Ryan Tannehill. If he improves, then Wallace could put up similar numbers to his prime days. But that's a big if. And no matter how much Tannehill improves, he is no Ben Roethlisberger.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (78.2, 100) DECLINE, RUN-HEAVY: Hm. Isn't there that guy who runs the ball a lot on this team.\? Oh yeah, that guy: Adrian Peterson. While Rudolph was a legitimate red zone threat last season, he caught just 53 passes. And 9 of those passes were touchdowns. There's almost no way his touchdown-to-catch ratio will be that high again and a decline in production makes sense.

Stephen Gostowski, K, Patriots (101.2, LAST ROUND) DO PEOPLE EVER LISTEN!?, TOO HIGH: Please, for the love of God, do not. I repeat DO NOT take a kicker this early. 

Seahawks DST (70.2, 100) TOO HIGH: This is far too high for a defense. Enough said. Don't miss out on depth for a defense this early.

2013 Quarterback Overview

While last year had a plethora of quarterbacks going in the first two rounds, this upcoming season should be vastly different. The league has become extremely pass happy and non-committee running backs are a dime a dozen. In large part, the running back position has the steepest drop-off after the elites and is hands down the shallowest of any position. And this past year, 23 quarterbacks scored more than 200 points (in 6 point per passing touchdown leagues), the most ever to do so. It is ridiculously deep at the quarterback position this year.

The quarterback position is so deep that I would be reluctant to take a quarterback in the first twenty picks! Although I can guarantee that someone will take Aaron Rodgers in the first round, it shouldn't happen. To give you an idea of what can happen, Matt Ryan has been going as late as the ninth round in the mock drafts. So please, fellow fantasy footballers, WAIT! Be patient. Let the draft come to you. Don't start a quarterback run. And if there is one, WAIT! Just because Cam Newton is available in the fourth round does not mean he's the best pick available given the scarcity of running backs. On the other hand, if there is a running back run, you better snatch one up otherwise you might be looking at a tandem of Chris Ivory and Reggie Bush. Yuck.

And to those in my league (which I won) last year who started taking backups in the 8th round. WAIT. Please. Freaking. Wait. Last year, by the time people were taking unnecessary backups, I was taking my starter, Robert Griffin III. Obviously in hindsight it was a great pick. But at the time, it was a scrambling, never-racking pick. And while last year there was a risk to wait that long, this year you can be making bank by waiting that long.

Let me re-iterate: This is the year to wait. If you don't get Aaron Rodgers, so what? Get Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, even Colin Kaepernick after the fifth round. Tony Romo is the 12th ranked quarterback in ESPN and my rankings. In a 10 team league that means he is a backup! Wait. Heck, in a twelve team league I bet you can get Matt Stafford as your backup if want to be "that guy".

Here's another thing. You hardly need a backup quarterback unless you draft Griffin (the ACL concerns). With guys like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, etc all outside the top 12, you don't need to waste a roster spot when you can just pick one up later. Let me just sternly say: If you draft either Rodgers, Brady, Brees, or Manning and then proceed to draft a backup QB, you are most certainly wasting a roster spot.

So finally, WAIT. WAIT on a quarterback likes it's your girlfriend trying on every dress imaginable. You know she'll find the right one eventually, even if it takes three hours.

Do some mock drafts to see where your favorite quarterbacks are going. Suppose you like Russell Wilson higher than most. Don't rush to take him. Do a mock draft and see if you can get him in the sixth or seventh round. Or maybe you like Matt Stafford to bounce back or maybe you're just fine with any of the QB's from the five to twelve range. Then try mock drafts and push it to see how long you can wait on a number one quarterback. And if you are in a "standard" 4 point per passing touchdown league, really, really wait. If it is a 6 point per any touchdown league, still wait (but perhaps not quite as long).

And alas. Here are my consistency rankings based on last year's stats. You can find two seasons ago here. Keep in mind the percentage on the right is for percentage of "Great" games. So for instance, Rodgers was great in 9 out of 16 or 56.25% of his games last season. But it's important to note that he was still a worthy start in 75% of his games (add the 3 "Start" games to the 9 "Great" or better games).

	Freak	Stud	Great	Start	Dud
Player (last year's rank)	35	25	20	15	<15	Inj/Sit	% Great
Rodgers (2)	4	5	0	3	4	0	56.25
Brees (1)	6	4	2	3	1	0	75.00
P. Manning (4)	0	10	2	2	2	0	75.00
Brady (3)	4	2	6	3	1	0	75.00
Ryan (5)	2	5	3	2	4	0	62.50
Newton (6)	2	3	4	2	5	0	56.25
Griffin III (7)	3	4	1	4	3	1	53.33
Wilson (9)*	1	5	2	2	6	0	50.00
Romo (8)	1	4	3	4	4	0	50.00
Stafford (11)	1	2	4	5	4	0	43.75
Kaepernick (25)	0	1	3	3	1	8	50.00
Luck (10)	1	3	2	7	3	0	37.50
E. Manning (14)	1	4	1	3	7	0	37.50
Roethlisberger (16)	1	2	3	5	2	3	46.15
Vick (27)	0	1	1	5	3	6	20.00
Flacco (15)	1	1	5	2	7	0	43.75
Rivers (20)	0	3	1	7	5	0	25.00
Dalton (12)	0	7	0	2	7	0	43.75
Bradford (18)	0	2	2	4	8	0	25.00
Freeman (13)	1	3	3	3	6	0	43.75
Palmer (19)	1	0	5	5	4	1	40.00
Cutler (23)	0	1	4	2	8	1	33.33
Tannehill (24)	0	1	3	3	9	0	25.00
Smith (29)	0	2	2	0	5	7	44.44
Tebow (CFL)	It's	Tee	Bow	Time	in	Can	ada?

All stats here based on 1 point per 25 passing yards, 1 point per 10 rushing yards, and 6 points per touchdown.

*Five of Wilson's six duds came in the first seven games. He finished the year with just one dud in his last nine games.

So here are some main takeaways from last year's stats (also in comparison to two years ago). And here are last year's rankings for you to compare.

• Aaron Rodgers "Great" percentage is a far cry from last year's perfect percentage. But even with the lowest percentage among the top five, he finished in the top 3 for the fifth year in a row.
• Over the past two years, Drew Brees has been the most consistent quarterback. And now Sean Payton is coming back. Sheesh.
• How right was I about Eli Manning? Very right. Expect more inconsistent play from him. For the past two years, he has had the most duds among the top 15 quarterbacks. He's not worthy of a starting spot in any league with 12 or fewer owners.
• Of my top ten, Peyton Manning was the only one who did not register a freak game. I expect that to change this year with the best receiving corps in football. Sorry to my Packers fans out there.
• There were 30 freak games this past season in comparison to just 18 last year. Can I emphasize what a passing league this has become? And just how deep the quarterback pool is this year.
• Andy Dalton tied for fourth in games with 25 or more points. He was also tied for fourth in games with 15 or less points.
• While Luck does not have a high percentage of great games, he was startable in 13 of 16 games.

Now. With all this in mind, get it! Be patient. Have fun. And stock up on running backs and wide receivers while your opponents take quarterbacks way too early.

Quarterback Consistency Ratings

Using standard scoring (6 points for all touchdowns, 1 point for 25 passing yards), I have put together a consistency chart from last season. When it comes to fantasy football, consistency is quite possibly the most important factor when it comes to drafting players. There are players like Devery Henderson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Beanie Wells who can produce monster weeks. Then they follow up with a dud. The main problem with these players is that they are not reliable week to week players. So finding players who can produce on a weekly basis is essential to winning.

The chart (below) is pretty straight forward and does not need too much analysis. But here are a couple of my quick notes from the chart.

• Aaron Rodgers does have a real argument to be the number one overall pick. Talk about consistent. 
• While Matt Stafford and Cam Newton are considered elite this year, there is a solid drop-off from Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
• Of the top 10 last year, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers produced the most duds.
• Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, and Newton were the only QB's with multiple freak games. None for Brady or Michael Vick.
• While Vick disappointed, he was not as inconsistent as Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, or Philip Rivers (Although he did miss more games).
• Ben Roethlisberger really had some duds, but he also flashed freak potential.
• Of quarterbacks outside of the top 10, Tebow really is a solid option. If he were not a backup in real life, he could make an impact again in the fantasy world. 
• Peyton Manning is clearly not here. But if we looked any of Manning's previous seasons, I'm pretty sure he'd be near the top. Just a hunch.

So here are the quarterback consistency ratings from last year.

But before you lay your eyes on this graph, I apologize for the sheer ugliness. This is why I am no longer a Computer Science major. This stuff just did not click in my brain. And no friends, for whatever dumb reason, there is no "inset table button". Rather, I had to do the whole shabang in html. Fun, huh? No. Not. At. All. If I ever do a running backs or wide receivers consistency chart, you can bet I'll hire a CS major to help me. Seriously, how the heck does it not line up? I must have spent about 20 minutes just trying to make it line up and this is what I got. Sigh. Enjoy.

* Update. Three hours later and I have figured it out. Brilliant! The chart's columns are lined up!

	Freak	Stud	Great	Start	Dud
Player	> 35	25	20	15	<15	Inj/Sit	% Great
Rodgers	5	7	3	0	0	1	100.00
Brees	4	6	3	2	1	0	81.25
Brady	1	8	4	3	0	0	81.25
Stafford	3	5	3	3	2	0	68.75
Newton	2	7	2	2	3	0	68.75
E.Manning	0	7	3	1	5	0	62.50
Romo	1	5	2	5	2	1	53.33
Ryan	1	4	2	5	4	0	43.75
Rivers	0	4	2	5	5	0	37.50
Sanchez	0	3	4	3	6	0	43.75
Vick	0	5	2	2	4	3	53.85
Fitzpatrick	0	3	1	5	7	0	25.00
Big Ben	1	1	2	4	7	1	26.67
Smith	0	0	5	3	8	0	31.25
Flacco	0	2	1	4	9	0	18.75
Dalton	0	2	2	4	8	0	25.00
Freeman	0	1	2	4	8	1	20.00
Hasselbeck	0	0	5	2	9	0	31.25
Tebow	0	3	1	5	3	4	33.33
Schaub	0	1	4	1	4	6	50.00

Draft Prep: Sleepers

Your sleeper picks. They can make or break your team. Instead of taking a more common name like John Kuhn, Matt Cassell, or Nate Burleson, take someone like Isaiah Pead, Antonio Brown, or Jared Cook. People who took a chance on Aaron Rodgers in his first season as a starter had to be pretty darn happy. And people who took Rob Gronkowski or Cam Newton last year, well, they likely earned themselves a playoff spot. And I won't be making any JaMarcus Russell jokes in this because after all, he has been in a deep sleep, or maybe a hibernation since 2009. Heck, he probably slept from 2007 to 2009 too. That would explain a lot.

But anyways, do your research. Target your guys who will be late rounders. Find those backups to the often injured players and take a chance on them. It will be the difference between a five win season and a eight win season. Here are my sleepers for the 2012 season.

Doug Martin (RB, TB, 78.8): Martin represents a great value pick with an opportunity to shatter expectations. It looks like he is winning the running back battle over LeGarrette Blount and his explosiveness is killer. At this point, he should be receiving the majority of carries as Blount slowly disappears. Blount will most likely get goaline carries, but that doesn't detract from Martin's potential to be one the better rookie running backs in recent years. He is definitely worth a pick after the 6th round.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis (RB, CIN, 59.1): Goodbye Cedric Benson. Hello Cedric Benson 2.0. Green-Ellis, who has scored 24 touchdowns in the past two seasons, is the man I want in all my leagues. Now as the featured back in Cincinnati, you can expect numbers on par with Benson, but hopefully more similar to those of former Rudi Johnson. BGE has yet to fumble in his NFL career and he has a knack for the endzone. According to Matthew Berry, since Marvin Lewis became head coach in 2003, the Bengals running backs have averaged 1,124 yards and 8 touchdowns a season. BGE fits the mold of a Lewis running back and if he puts up those average numbers, well you got yourself a very solid, high-end number 2 running back.

Donald Brown (RB, IND, 100.8): He will get carries. He should be the starter. He just plays on last years most abysmal offense. He also is far from proven but now is his shot. He showed off his explosiveness toward the end of last season and is in a position where he can succeed. If Andrew Luck and the Colts' offense puts it together, Brown will be a major component of it.

Mikel Leshoure (RB, DET, 145.2): Injured his entire rookie season, Leshoure can make a splash if often injured Jahvid Best or Kevin Smith go down. And if, or when they do, Leshore may live up to his high potential out of the University of Illinois.

Isaiah Pead (RB, STL, 166.8): Steven Jackson is slowing down and Pead is coming up. While I think Jackson will still be the man all season, Pead will get some carries and spell Jackson. He also has great hands and will be involved with their passing game.

Evan Royster (RB, WSH, Not Drafted): Like I've said before, I don't want to touch the Washington running backs. Royster ended last year with two stellar 100 yard games but still has Roy Helu ahead of him. Probably. Maybe. Who knows? Only Mike Shanahan. If anything happens to Helu, then it will be time to jump on the Royster train.

Eric Decker (WR, DEN, 72.1): I love this guy just a little bit more than Demaryius Thomas. For one, he is more accustomed to an NFL style offense than Thomas and he runs much better, crisper routes. In an offense with Peyton Manning, that means a lot. Decker has HUGE upside with Manning throwing and he could be a monster in PPR leagues. I'd take Decker over Thomas, and other iffy receivers like Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson, and DeSean Jackson.

Antonio Brown (WR, PIT, 70.4): Also being drafted around Decker, Brown had a superb, under the radar season. He had the second most third down catches last year which means Big Ben looked to him regularly in the clutch. He also had 69 catches and 1,108 yards. Talk about a season no one talked about. With Mike Wallace looking iffier, Brown could actually end up being Roethlisberger's top target (In fact, he had more targets than Wallace last season.) For his draft position, Brown will be a steal and a very solid number 2 receiver.

Reggie Wayne (WR, IND, 105.6): Reggie Wayne is no longer the top-10 Wayne we've seen for years. But with Andrew Luck throwing his way, Wayne can hopefully still produce. Even if Luck doesn't meet expectations, he cannot be much worse than Curtis Painter or Dan Orlovsky. Right? Wayne has lost a step but do not count him out yet. For the record, I'd much rather have him then Michael Crabtree, Justin Blackmon, or Randy Moss. Which also isn't saying much...

Greg Little (WR, CLE, 148.8): Little had over 60 catches for 700 yards last year but only found the endzone twice. With "rookie" Brandon Weeden throwing his way, his numbers should improve slightly. He is the most NFL-looking receiver on their team and could quietly produce a solid season. And if Weeden blows people out of the water, then Little will have lots to do with it.

Randall Cobb (WR, GB, 154.5): Cobb is buried in the depth chart of the most fearsome wide receiver corps of the NFL. But he is expected to have an expanded role as Donald Driver's role diminishes. Cobb shows every sign of an elite playmaker and could find himself as the undisputed number three receiver in Green Bay. And with Aaron Rodgers throwing, that makes for a still pretty solid fantasy receiver.

Vincent Brown (WR, SD, Not Drafted): In his four starts last year, Brown showed flashes of potential and great route running. Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd are by no means durable players and Brown could find himself as one of Rivers' steady targets. You won't likely have to use a draft pick on him so monitor him early and jump on him.

Jacob Tamme (TE, DEN, 114.3): While cleaning my room, I stumbled upon a Jacob Tamme game worn jersey card from Kentucky. Thrilled at my find, I remember how enamored I was with a tight end no kid in Illinois should have ever heard about. But with Tamme teaming up with Manning in Denver, there is great potential for a solid season. Remember when Dallas Clark got injured and Tamme took over? Now Tamme and Manning have time to gel and work together all season. I expect a top 8 season this year.

Fred Davis (TE, WSH, 103.9): With RGIII throwing his way, Davis might finally break out. Chris Cooley is almost completely out of the mix and it is Davis' time to shine. He started to have a breakout season last year till he was suspended the remainder of the season for marijuana charges. This year, take a shot on him as he may even outproduce Jermichael Finley.

Jared Cook (TE, TEN, 127.3): You know how Finley is supposed to be some freak athlete? Well, let's compare his combine numbers to Cook. Finley had a 4.82 40 time and a 27.5 vertical. Cook had a 4.49 time and a 41.0 vertical! Finley looks like a child compared to Cook. If either Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker produce, Cook will be in for a stellar season.

Jermaine Gresham (TE, CIN, 144.7): This is a surprisingly deep year for tight ends eh? Last year, Gresham had 56 catches for nearly 600 yards and 6 touchdowns. As he continues to click with Dalton, Gresham should only get better.



Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT, ADP 81.2): Not that Big Ben is unknown to many, but this could be a year we he solidly plays himself into the top 10. Last year he was 13th among quarterbacks and this year he is a borderline 12 team league starter. But with Rashard Mendenhall expected to miss most, if not all of the season, expect Ben to passing more. Assuming Mike Wallace mans up and comes back, Ben will have him, emerging Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders to throw to. Expect Big Ben to sneak into the top 10 this year for quarterbacks.

Michael Vick (QB, PHI, 31.9): Is he really even a sleeper? Well, kind of. After last years fall from fantasy domination, Vick is being a bit undervalued this year. Despite missing three whole games last year, Vick still finished 11th among quarterbacks and had seven 20 point games. And while no one expected him to replicate his 9 rushing touchdowns of 2010, no one expected him to have just 1 either. So expect an increase of rushing touchdowns and hopefully and injury free season. Last year, I said Vick was not worthy of the number one pick Matthew Berry hyped him to be, but this year, he is clearly worth his draft value.

Tim Tebow (QB, NYJ, 137.6): Not too many backup quarterbacks are the 22nd quarterback taken in drafts. But Tebow does have a real shot at eventually taking the starting job in New York. And that's not a credit to Tebow's passing skills, but his running ability, and Mark Sanchez's mediocrity. Tebow is the only NFL quarterback to run for 6 touchdowns in consecutive seasons and has no reason not to do it again. We saw Tebow be a productive fantasy player last year with 15 points or more in 8 of his 12 games. Will we see some more Tebow time this year?

Early 2012 Quarterback Tiers

Tier 1: The Mega Elite
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady

Who I want the most: Aaron Rodgers. This is quite possibly the easiest decision in this draft. Aaron Rodgers never once scored less than 20 points last season, unless you count week 17 against the Lions when Matt Flynn went off. He scored over 30 points seven times and 40 points twice. Aaron Rodgers was no doubt the most consistent and highest scoring quarterback, and he still believes that he has room for improvement. He has a legitimate case to be number one overall, but is nevertheless a top 5 overall pick.

Tier 2: The Elite
3. Drew Brees
4. Cam Newton
5. Matt Stafford

Who I want the most: Drew Brees. While this is a tough call, Brees is hands down the most proven of the bunch. Stafford is still an injury concern and there is no way I expect Newton to replicate his 14 rushing touchdowns. While the Saints are a bit troublesome with the whole bounty scandal, expect Brees to still be one of the safest and best picks of the draft.

Tier 3: The Rock Solid Value
6. Tony Romo
7. Michael Vick
8. Philip Rivers
9. Eli Manning
10. Peyton Manning

Who I want the most: Michael Vick. This year, Vick is a bargain. Rather than being drafted in the first round like last year, Vick should slip past the second and be available between the 3rd and 5th rounds. Jump on him. Last year's disappointment still ranked him 11th among all quarterbacks even with only 13 games played. And while I expected his rushing touchdowns from 2010 to decrease, I did not expect a 1 rushing touchdown season. He still averaged 8 yards a carry last season and has elite potential. Take your chances, but be sure to get a solid backup in case of injury.

Bust potential: Philip Rivers. While I was high on Rivers last year, this year worries me. Ryan Mathews is becoming a feature back and Rivers lost Vincent Jackson. While Rivers should still produce, he is more of a risk than previous years.

Tier 4: The Producers
11. Ben Roethlisberger
12. Matt Ryan
13. Matt Schaub

Who I want the most: Ben Roethlisberger. He has weapons in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. He also no longer has Rashard Mendenhall, which may actually help Big Ben's numbers. They will rely more on their passing attack and I think Roethlisberger will finish as a top 10 quarterback. Matt Ryan, who ranked in the top 10 last year, could also be a bargain with Turner aging and elite weapons in Roddy White and Julio Jones. If you miss out on any of the top 10 guys, do not be afraid to jump on either of these two.

Tier 5: The Rest
14. Jay Cutler
15. Robert Griffin III
16. Joe Flacco
17. Josh Freeman
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick
19. Andrew Luck
20. Tim Tebow

Who I want the most: Robert Griffin III. Or Tim Tebow. Griffin has huge upside in an above average offense in Washington. His running ability puts him into the Vick/Newton territory as he should benefit from 500+ rushing yards and around 5 rushing touchdowns. And as for Tim Tebow, well you know, I love him. Do not draft him, but keeps tabs on him because there is one current starting quarterback I could see Tebow overtaking. And that man is Mark Sanchez.

Sleeper Potential: Jay Cutler. As much as it pains me to say this, Cutler could be in for a big season. He is reunited with Brandon Marshall and has solid options in Chicago. With an offensive line that improved as the year went along, Cutler might actually see time in the pocket. While I won't be surprised to see his pouty face multiple times, Cutler might finally produce a better than average season.

Extra Sleeper: Nate Amodio. This season, instead of being a Woodhead/Tebow hybrid, he will be called upon to be the Aaron Rodgers of the returning playoff team, the Pineapple Chunkers. With an excellent scrimmage in the offseason already, his arm looks sharp and his decision making has been great. However, a second pulled hammy in 4 months is making him less than a surefire option. And he needs his mobility to be top-notch because as you all know, he can barely see over his own lineman in the pocket. But given a healthy body and handlebar mustache, I expect nothing less than excellence.

Deep Sleeper: JaMarcus Russell. I can't imagine waking this guy up. He slept through 3 NFL seasons.

Offseason Impact: From JaMarcus Russell to Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning, QB (IND to DEN): All you need to know is right here. It's Peyton Manning, everyone. Not too hard to imagine the type of impact he can have.

JaMarcus Russell, Bum (Couch Potatoes to Oscar Mayer Wieners): All kidding aside, check out this article on him from Sports Illustrated. It not only captures his true human side but how he deals with the struggles of being the biggest bust in the NFL.

Jacob Tamme, TE (IND to DEN): When Dallas Clark went down in 2010, Jacob Tamme took over. In the 10 games without Clark, Tamme caught 67 passes for over 600 yards and 4 touchdowns. Solid numbers for a guy very few people knew about (I did when he was in Kentucky but that is besides the point). Even though Denver also signed Joel Dressen from Houston, do not expect him to cut into Tamme's value. Tamme will be in line for a productive year with Manning looking his way a lot.

Michael Bush, RB (OAK to CHI): Another player who shined after the starter went down is Michael Bush, who will hopefully do better for the Bears than Marion Barber or Chester Taylor did. Bush gives the Bears extra insurance and a great power back to compliment Forte. But his time in Chicago will limit his value and make Forte's value plummet. Pay close attention to whether Forte holds out because if he does, Bush could actually get MORE touches then Forte. But don't overdraft either of these two as both will be limited by the running back committee.

Brandon Marshall, WR (MIA to CHI): Wide receivers go to die in Chicago, according to former wideout Muhsin Muhammad. Brandon Marshall, who has been a cancer in Denver and Miami, is looking for another new start in the NFL. Despite a Pro-Bowl MVP performance, he was never what Denver or Miami expected. Paired again with his former QB Jay Cutler, Marshall has a chance to really shine and make a Bears wide receiver actually relevant. Like usual, Marshall has top 10 potential, but will have to keep his BPD and dropped balls in check. He dropped 12 last year, putting him into a tie for second most among receivers. Be cautious with Marshall as he is big time risk, big time reward.

Matt Flynn, QB (GB to SEA): Aka, the next Kevin Kolb? Another mostly unproven quarterback earns a big paycheck despite limited playing experience. Flynn will be a very hard to predict quarterback this season as he has shown off his potential, but is still quite an unkown. If it helps, his mentor and number one fantasy quarterback Aaron Rodgers said that Flynn is a top 15 quarterback in the league. Whether or not he lives up to the hype, Flynn is worth a late round flier for those who need a backup quarterback. He has borderline top 10 potential, but there are better options with all the proven quarterbacks out there.

Vincent Jackson, WR (SD to TB): Jackson's value drops going from San Diego to Tampa Bay but he still will be a top 20 receiver this year. The real value change lies in Josh Freeman, who will get a significant boost throwing to Jackson. Freeman, who surprised many his rookie season, took several steps backward during his sophomore slump. Look for both to be solid fantasy contributors and locks for mid round picks.

Peyton Hillis, RB (CLE to KC): The Madden Curse. The reason I did not vote for Aaron Rodgers. An arguable reason Hillis did absolutely nothing last year. In his move to Kansas City where he will play behind Jamaal Charles, Hillis, much like Bush, will be limited. Hillis and Bush could both be touchdown stealers from Charles and Forte making what could have been four top twenty running backs into two borderline top 10 and two top 30 backs. Sigh. Running back committees.

Randy Moss, WR (FA to SF): Extremely disappointing production in 2010 followed up with no teams wanting him in 2011 does not bode well for the future Hall of Famer. But according to coach Jim Harbaugh, Moss is ready to return. With Alex Smith finally developing, Moss has great sleeper potential and could be a steal in this years draft. Then again, we may have Ochocinco 2.0. Look out as Moss could be a wasted pick. While the reward is fairly high, the risk may not be worth a pick.

Chad Henne, QB (MIA to JAX): With the the incredible rookie phenom Blaine Gabbert ahead of him... Wait, he was at that one end of the total QBR spectrum right? Oh, he was dead last? That end of the spectrum. Got it. While Henne could easily overtake the disappointing Gabbert, neither will offer fantasy value. It is as simple as it gets. I cannot fathom drafting either of them.

Brandon Lloyd, WR (STL to NE): Lloyd is an intriguing receiver for this years draft. Remember that year with Kyle Orton throwing to him? Well, I do and now, imagine Tom Brady throwing to this guy. Despite multiple options for Brady, Lloyd will have his chances and has solid number 2 wide receiver potential. This should not be a case of the Ochocinco as Lloyd has a legitimate shot to be productive. And I would draft him solely based on his Madden campaign video. Legit, I admit.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB (NE to CIN): No one thought BenJarvus would produce like he did in 2010. Well, except me. But he still did compile 11 touchdowns to go along with nearly 700 yards and zero fumbles. With Benson's status still in the air, Green-Ellis role is also undetermined. But if he does end up the number one option, Green-Ellis could have a season similar to 2010. The Bengals like to pound the ball and Green-Ellis is that guy much like Benson was. Keep BGE on your radar as he is a solid option.

Brandon Jacobs, RB (NYG to SF): Hello running back committee, again. Jacobs may not cut too heavily into Frank Gore's carries, but he certainly is a threat to steal touchdowns. With Gore being injury prone, Jacobs is definitely worth a pick this year. While his production will be tough to gauge, take a late round flier and hope it pans out.

Mario Manningham, WR (NYG to SF): Manningham has always been in the complimentary role as wide receiver and I do not expect that to change. With Randy Moss joining as well and Vernon Davis still there, keep your expectations of Manningham the same or just slightly better than his days with the Giants. The 49ers like to run and this year will be no different especially with Jacobs in the mix. Anticipate a 50 catch, 600 yard season from Manningham.

Mike Tolbert, RB (SD to CAR): Tolbert joins a very, might I say extremely, crowded backfield in Carolina. And when your quarterback was 2nd in the league in rushing touchdowns, well, good luck. Add DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to the mix, and you've got three running backs no one wants to touch. Avoid, avoid, avoid!

Robert Meachem, WR (NO to SD): Meachem could be a steal in this years draft. After years of a offense with multiple weapons, Meachem will have a chance to prove his worth in San Diego. Essentially taking over for Vincent Jackson, Meachem should be a favorite of Philip Rivers. Meachem could sneak into the top 10 by the end of the year, but for the moment, draft him in the top 25 with very high upside.

Oh wait. We were talking about Garcon.

Pierre Garcon, WR (IND to WAS): Garcon should be a top 30 receiver. Unless he absolutely gels with RGIII, do not expect a whole lot. Worth a pick, just do not get too excited.

Laurent Robinson, WR (DAL to JAX): While Miles Austin and Dez Bryant battled injuries, Robinson turned into a very reliable receiver in Dallas. But now in Jacksonville with the likes of either Henne or Blaine Gabbert throwing to him, do not expect much. Let's just say when your quarterback ranked 33rd out of 33 in total QBR, things do not look good.

Midseason Awards

Fantasy MVP: Aaron Rodgers

How can he not be? Drafted as either the first or second quarterback this year, Rodgers has been the epitome of consistency. He has scored no fewer then 25 points in a game and has three games of over 30. His lowest yardage output was 297 yards, during the only game in which he threw for under 300 yards. Chances are if you own Rodgers, you have won the majority of your games. He has been lights-out week in and week out, spreading the ball to a number of Packers' players. He is the MVP, no question.
Runners up: Cam Newton, Calvin Johnson, Fred Jackson

Biggest Disappointment: Chris Johnson

This is another obvious award. CJ2K has been one of the biggest busts in recent years for a top-5 pick. DeMarco Murray, the rookie running back for Dallas, has already out rushed Chris Johnson. The holdout has seriously hurt Johnson's production, making him a less than desirable fantasy option. We know the talent and potential is still there, but no one can argue with his results and his 2.9 yards per carry. He is a bust!
Runners up: Reggie Wayne, Peyton Hillis, Philip Rivers, Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates 
       
Biggest Surprise: Fred Jackson

Even Fred Jackson's wife was hesitant to take him. But Jackson of the Buffalo Bills is putting together a stunning season and has helped the Bills jump out to a 5-2 start. He is third among running backs in points and already has five 100 yard rushing games, two more than last season. That, along with six touchdowns and a career high in receiving yards has Jackson looking like the real deal. Drafted in the mid rounds, Jackson has proved to be one of the biggest value picks of the year, and is even in the debate for MVP. Fred Jackson is hands down the biggest surprise of the season.
Runners up: Cam Newton, Darren Sproles, Matt Forte, A.J. Green, Rob Gronkowski

Rookie of the (Mid) Year: Cam Newton

Remember before the season when I said Cam would have marginal fantasy implications? Whoops. Not only has Newton been by far the best rookie, he is currently the third best quarterback in fantasy, just behind Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. He is tied for the rookie QB record for rushing touchdowns with 7 and shows no signs of slowing down. In fact, he can still be better. If he learns from his mistakes and commits fewer turnovers, watch out. We might just have another Michael Vick on our hands.
Runners up: A.J. Green, Mark Ingram

Comeback Player: Wes Welker

After a disappointing 2010 season with just 848 receiving yards, Welker has bounced back in a big way. Despite tearing his ACL late last season, Welker has recovered and looks better than ever. He is on pace for a whopping 136 catches and over 2,000 yards. While he probably won't come close to the yardage figure, he could definitely put up 120 catches by the end of the season. He has been Brady's favorite target and leads the league with 83 targets in just 7 games. Whether you own him in a standard league or a PPR league, he has been an absolute steal and a must-start option.
Runners up: Steve Smith, Matt Stafford, Plaxico Burress, Ryan Mathews 

JaMarcus Russell award: Donovan McNabb

While McNabb is nowhere near Russell's level of play, he has still been a major bust for his new team. He wasn't expected to be that good of fantasy option, but he certainly wasn't expected to be this bad either. Christian Ponder has already taken over after McNabb was a fabulous display of how not to be a quarterback. Even with Adrian Peterson taking pressure off McNabb and a weapon in Percy Harvin, McNabb play resembled that of Russell. Bummer.
Runners up: Blaine Gabbert, JaMarcus Russell, Rex Grossman's last game

Top Tight End: Jimmy Graham

Even in the crowd of talent in New Orleans, Graham has clearly separated himself from the rest of the pack. With Antonio Gates like talent, he has played like, well, Antonio Gates. He leads all tight ends in every category: catches, yards, touchdowns, and targets. With four 100 yard games, he has separated himself from the next best tight end, Rob Gronkowski by 27 points. This production spells out a four-lettered word. S.T.U.D.
Runners up: Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley

Most Under-Owned: Mark Sanchez

Besides one horrendous game against the tough Ravens' defense, Sanchez has been quite solid. He has scored at least 17 points in 6 of his 7 starts, with one -4 point outing against the Ravens. This adds up to him being the ninth best QB thus far and deserving of being owned in most leagues. On ESPN, he is owned in just 75% of leagues and that percentage should be higher. He is not a must-start by any means but is a viable option. For being in the top 10 at his position and being owned in just three quarters of leagues, Sanchez wins the most under-owned award.
Runners up: Tim Tebow, Victor Cruz, Delone Carter

Most Over-Owned: Ryan Torain

I told you all once. Here it is again. Ryan Torain is nothing but a headache. Even with Tim Hightower out for the year, Torain has proved that he is one of the most inconsistent backs in the league. And with Mike Shanahan doing his best Bill Belichick impression, Roy Helu will figure to take away some carries. Torain should not be trusted and should not be owned in 98.5% of leagues.
Runners up: Chad Ochocinco, Reggie Wayne, Mercedes Lewis

The Nate Amodio Award: Calvin Johnson

Johnson has done his best at doing the Nate Amodio. He has caught multiple touchdowns in multiple games. In just his sophomore season, Amodio caught 2 touchdowns in 40% of his games, helping his team, The Pineapple Chunkers, earn their first ever playoff berth. Calvin has even bettered Amodio with 2 TD's in 50% of his games while going scoreless in just one game. That's some "mega" production.
Runners up: Wes Welker, Pierre Garcon

What to Know for Week 7

After weeks of busyness in school, I am finally back to blogging. I am very sorry to those who needed my super awesome knowledge of fantasy football. If the lack of insight the past couple weeks caused you to go winless, then I apologize. Hopefully you have managed to pull out a win or two, although it seems unlikely. Nonetheless, I am back and a lot has happened. So here is what you need to know for week 7, starting with my man Timmy Tebow.

Tim Tebow is now starting and will be a stud: He may not be that great of an actual quarterback, but for fantasy purposes he is a stud. Last year, in his three starts, he put up at least 24 fantasy points. And in just one half against San Diego this year, Tebow provided a spark and 16 fantasy points. It is not Tebow's passing that makes him a stud, but, much like Michael Vick, his running ability. Tebow compiled 38 rushing yards and 1 touchdown to go with his 1 passing touchdown against San Diego. He has that potential for every game. I would consider Tebow a top-10 option for most games from this year forward.

Brandon Lloyd will be an inconsistent option at best: At first glance, Lloyd's trade to St. Louis seems like a good thing. A young, blossoming quarterback in Sam Bradford should give Lloyd plenty of targets. But with the Rams' current struggles and multiple player injuries, Lloyd will find it tough to succeed. Reuniting with Josh McDaniels will help the transition for Lloyd, but it will still be a rocky path to finding success in St. Louis. Play Lloyd when the matchups are right and you may be able to squeeze some remaining value out of him.

Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford will both finish in the top 7 this year: Remember how the season started with 7 obvious elite quarterbacks? Well, the top 7 quarterbacks have changed thanks to Stafford's breakout season and Newton's explosion. Both are now must-start quarterbacks and can lead your team to the playoffs. Just make sure to have a solid backup, as Stafford is still injury prone and Newton is still just a young lad.

Fred Jackson and Matt Forte are two of the most under-appreciated backs: Both have put up fantastic fantasy numbers and are due for a real-life payday. Hopefully by now you have noticed that both are must-starts and two of the most consistent options. Forte has over half his team's yardage and Jackson could be in the MVP discussion. And both are proving to be great value picks from this year's draft.

Darren Sproles is startable in standard leagues: For those in PPR leagues, Sproles is one the most consistent top-10 running backs so far. But even in standard leagues, Sproles is producing well and should be started as a borderline number 2 back or a great flex option. Just don't let his solid production go to waste on your bench.

Arian Foster is far from who he was last year: Foster still has big output potential, but he is much less trustworthy this year. With numerous nagging injuries and Ben Tate receiving some carries, Foster's expectations should be tamed. Nonetheless, he is a solid number 1 back, even if he is not nearly as dominant as last year. Monitor his injury situations and hopefully he will stay healthy enough to prove his worth as a top 5 pick.

Fantasy football will bring anger sooner or later: In one of my leagues with close friends, I missed the draft and was autopicked for. Aaron Rodgers was taken, then Greg Jennings followed as the number 1 receiver! I did not have that in my pre-draft rankings but whatever. My team looked weak everywhere else but then Fred Jackson emerged to give me a powerful team. I now have over 50 points more than everyone else. And the result? I am 9th out of 10 with a 1-4-1 record. RAGE! It's fantasy football. Anything can happen.

Jordy Nelson is showing us the Super Bowl was no fluke: Currently, Nelson ranks 10th in ESPN standard scoring leagues and is proving to be one of Aaron Rodgers' favorite options. While lots of his success so far has depended on big plays, he is an advisable start for most weeks. He has clearly overtaken James Jones and Donald Driver as a favorite target and should continue to be solid down the road.

Jimmy Graham is hands-down the best tight end: Graham was a big sleeper for me this year mainly because of his Antonio Gates-like potential. Indeed, Graham has blossomed into a stud tight end. His soft hands and ridiculous athleticism have made him a favorite in the crowded receiving corps of New Orleans. Graham has been the most consistent and highest scoring tight end this year. Continue to start him with no hesitation.

Girls can play fantasy football, too. Who'd a thunk?: My sister joined two leagues this year and is 4-2 and 2-4.  Her 2-4 team is loaded with talent, thanks to my drafting help. Unfortunately, she has been stuck with unlucky losses. She drafted her 4-2 team without my guidance. She took Antonio Gates in the third round, took a kicker and defense too early, and has a better record. It's fantasy football. Anything can happen. And in another league, a female friend of mine took her boy Sam Bradford in round 2 and then proceeded to beat our tall, lanky ginger friend in an epic upset. His team was stacked; she took Bradford in round 2. It's fantasy football. Anything can happen.

Oh, and check out this clip about women and fantasy football, it may be worth your time.
http://www.wpix.com/videobeta/2d2ed7df-b24b-47a1-a31b-3c01aea3faf9/News/Men-not-the-only-ones-playing-fantasy-football

Elite QB Strategy Vs. Two-QB Strategy

       For the past several years in fantasy football, the value of a quarterback has gradually increased. While it used to be uncommon for a quarterback to go in round 1, we have seen a large amount of quarterbacks drafted in the early rounds. While there are 6 clear elite quarterbacks this year, and maybe a seventh in Tony Romo, the depth at quarterback has also increased. While some prefer to jump on the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick, others prefer to wait for a combination like Matt Stafford and Eli Manning. There can be benefits to either strategy.

       While in the past I would have waited to draft a QB like Ben Roethisberger later, I have now become an advocate of taking a QB in rounds 2-4. Each draft will vary, but you cannot argue with the consistency and production from this year's top 7. Besides Michael Vick, you almost know what you will get from these top quarterbacks. Even Tony Romo last year was on pace for a solid 4280 yards and 29 touchdowns before he got injured. Just take a look at the averages for the past 3 full seasons for each elite quarterback. 

Quarterback	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns
Aaron Rodgers	4131	29
Drew Brees	4692	34
Michael Vick (just last year's)	3018	21
Philip Rivers	4324	31
Tom Brady	4368	38
Peyton Manning	4401	31
Tony Romo	4047	30

       Obviously, with players like Rodgers and Vick, they see their points increase greatly thanks to rushing stats which also helps their argument as surefire first rounders. But you can see why it is to your benefit to grab one of the elites. They have the marks of consistent production year in and year out. That said, overpaying can leave you short-handed at key WR and RB positions, so be careful. Snagging someone like Philip Rivers, for instance, who is not too different from Rodgers, is a better bargain being drafted 2-3 rounds later. But stretching for someone like Peyton Manning, who I have advised to be avoided in drafts for now obvious reasons, can be a poorly valued pick.

       So the question that arises is, "What if I want to wait altogether on a quarterback? How much do I lose by going with the likes of Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford as opposed to Tom Brady?". The answer is not simple. For one, you lose a bench spot to a quarterback. With a top 7 QB, you hardly need a backup save their bye weeks. For any other quarterback, you will surely need a backup. In addition, playing matchups can become stressful and it makes for tough weekly decisions.

       So let's take a look at some scenarios that may have played out in just last season. I will assume that the best decision possible was made each week in these 2-QB scenarios.

Quarterbacks	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns
Flacco/Roethlisberger	4310	29
Eli Manning/Ryan	4185	39
Cutler/Cassel	3674	33
Bradford/Sanchez	4052	24
Palmer/Schaub	5076	34

       So, clearly the two quarterback strategy can work. In fact, it can even work better than an elite quarterback. But this strategy is risky and far from a given. Playing the matchups perfectly is nearly impossible to do. And the fact that these quarterbacks are not as consistent as the elite leaves you vulnerable to implosions. 

       The quarterbacks being drafted later are drafted for clear reasons. Some may be injury-prone like Stafford, others may be pick magnets like Manning, and some are still young and unproven like Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford. I do believe that there is great potential for some of these quarterbacks, but they no doubt have a risk and a bit of an "unknown" factor. That is, we still do not really know how they will do. This is a sharp contrast to someone like Brady or Rodgers. Consistency is a big issue as well; thus, making matchup playing a nightmare. 

       Is it worth it? To me, the answer is no. To others who think they are brilliant coaches and matchup wizards, go for it. But I would much rather have the safety of a Rivers, Rodgers, or Brady than a mixture of Eli Manning and Matt Stafford. I figure, you save a bench spot for a non-quarterback and avoid stressful decision making during the week. Not only are you going to get consistent, solid production, you will have the luxury in knowing that you have a top quarterback who does not need to be subbed out. 

       If you do miss out on an elite quarterback (Tony Romo signifies the end of the elites), don't panic and be patient. Who knows, getting Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford could be a blessing in disguise. This year there is potential outside of the top 7 for similar production to an elite quarterback. While you won't be nearly as safe, you can still have a top-notch team that can crack the playoffs. I still advise getting a top tier QB, but at least for this season, it is not the end of the world to miss out. 

all stats from ESPN stats and game logs