Early 2012 Wide Receiver Tiers

Tier 1: The Elite
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Roddy White
4. Andre Johnson

Who I want the most: Roddy White. Honestly, the Madden curse does scare me. It really does. While I would love Calvin Johnson, he will likely go in the top 8 which is just a bit too high for me. Even with the emergence of Julio Jones, White will still be the man. White still led the league with 182 targets last year. He will not be forgotten. And with Michael Turner on the decline, White will be in for another stellar year.

Bust alert: Andre Johnson. He is still elite, yes. But, too many injury concerns and a more run-oriented team makes me less likely to pick Johnson this year. This doesn't mean you neccessarily pass on him; just be cautious and make sure he is your guy.

Tier 2: The Near Elite
5. Wes Welker
6. Greg Jennings
7. Mike Wallace

Who I want the most: Wes Welker. He always seems to be drafted a little lower than most big time receivers. But he remains one of the most consistent and productive receivers of the past. Last year, he was completely healthy and had the second most targets, second most receiving yards, and most catches of anyone. He remains a PPR monster and is a rock solid pick. Mike Wallace is in a close second as he is no longer just a deep threat, but now an all around fantasy wide receiver. And while I love Jennings, the emergence of Nelson and the mix of Jermichael Finley and Randall Cobb make it tougher to depend on Jennings as a true number 1 wideout.

Tier 3: Still Number 1's
8. A.J. Green
9. Hakeem Nicks
10. Steve Smith
11. Brandon Marshall

Who I want the most: A.J. Green. This kid can play. With him and Andy Dalton having one year officially under their belt, things can only go up. In just 116 targets, Green produced 1,057 yards and 7 touchdowns as just a rookie. I would not be surprised to see him at more around 1,400 yards and double digit touchdowns this year.

New team: Brandon Marshall. He is reunited with Jay Cutler and could explode this season. He was looked at as a risky pick last season but still produced. Now, although still a bit risky due to his looming personality disorder, he could be a steal and produce like a clear-cut number 1 receiver.

Tier 4: Can They Do It Again?
12. Jordy Nelson
13. Victor Cruz
14. Julio Jones
15. Dez Bryant

Who I want the most: Jordy Nelson. This may be because he is a Packer in this case, but Nelson really played like an elite last year. And, he has this beast by the name of Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Nelson is a big play threat every down and can put up monster weeks. But this entire group is extremely young and talented. Cruz and Jones exploded onto the scene last year and Cruz may have the toughest time replicating his numbers. The question for all of these studs is: Can they do it again?

Tier 5: The Less Certain
16. Brandon Lloyd
17. Miles Austin
18. Percy Harvin
19. Marques Colston
20. Demaryius Thomas

Player I want the most: Brandon Lloyd. Tom Brady. Enough said. For the first time in his career, Lloyd gets an elite quarterback to throw to him. Even though there are many options in New England, Lloyd could be the defensive backs forget about. Remember his monster season in Denver with Kyle Orton throwing to him? Well, hello Tom Brady. And, Lloyd did an awesome video for the Madden cover. This will make anyone want to draft him.

Tier 6: Potential
21. Vincent Jackson
22. Steve Johnson
23. Kenny Britt
24. Jeremy Maclin
25. Dwayne Bowe

Player I want the most: Kenny Britt. I like this guy more than others do and here's why: big game potential. He is a bit of a risk, but could be well worth it. In a semi-healthy 2010 season, he put up nearly 800 yards and 9 touchdowns in just 12 games. There's potential, but he may be the biggest risk of this group.

AVOID AVOID AVOID: Dwayne Bowe. Like I said last year, he has Matt Cassel throwing him the ball. We saw his numbers dip big time last year. Sadly, it could happen again.

Tier 7: Upside
26. Antonio Brown
27. Eric Decker
28. Robert Meachem
29. DeSean Jackson
30. Santonio Holmes
31. Pierre Garcon
32. Lance Moore
33. Malcolm Floyd

Who I want the most: Antonio Brown and Eric Decker. I love the upside Garcon with RGIII here, but I cannot resist Antonio Brown. He came out of nowhere to become one of Big Ben's favorite targets last season and produced 1108 yards with 69 catches. He should be the most consistent of this bunch and is worth the mid round pick. I also cannot resist Decker. He has more NFL style experience than his counterpart Demaryius Thomas and has potential to be a PPR machine. Hear it now, I would not be surprised if Decker finishes in the top 10 for wide receivers.

Tier 8: Youngins' Surrounded by Oldies
34. Anquan Boldin
35. Denarius Moore
36. Torrey Smith
37. Reggie Wayne

Who I want the most: Reggie Wayne. When was the last time Wayne was not drafted in the top 10? Let's say, oh, 2004. He certainly has lost a step, but he could be a steal if he and Luck click. Don't get your hopes too high. But at this spot, Wayne is a very low risk, high reward pick.

Tier 9: The Rest
38. Michael Crabtree
39. Sidney Rice
40. Darrius Heyward-Bey
41. Justin Blackmon
42. Nate Washington
43. Titus Young
44. Laurent Robinson
45. Rueben Randle
46. Randy Moss
47. Mike Williams
48. Mario Manningham
49. Leonard Hankerson
50. Greg Little

Who I want the most: Sidney Rice. There's no one with major upside here and nothing exciting either. But Rice has Matt Flynn who could either boom or bust in Seattle. Rice has had only one good season and that was with Brett Favre. And thank goodness Tavaris Jackson should no longer be throwing to him. Clearly, that has not worked out. And take a flier on Randy Moss if he is available late. He could be quite the steal... Or literally do nothing.

Early 2012 Quarterback Tiers

Tier 1: The Mega Elite
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady

Who I want the most: Aaron Rodgers. This is quite possibly the easiest decision in this draft. Aaron Rodgers never once scored less than 20 points last season, unless you count week 17 against the Lions when Matt Flynn went off. He scored over 30 points seven times and 40 points twice. Aaron Rodgers was no doubt the most consistent and highest scoring quarterback, and he still believes that he has room for improvement. He has a legitimate case to be number one overall, but is nevertheless a top 5 overall pick.

Tier 2: The Elite
3. Drew Brees
4. Cam Newton
5. Matt Stafford

Who I want the most: Drew Brees. While this is a tough call, Brees is hands down the most proven of the bunch. Stafford is still an injury concern and there is no way I expect Newton to replicate his 14 rushing touchdowns. While the Saints are a bit troublesome with the whole bounty scandal, expect Brees to still be one of the safest and best picks of the draft.

Tier 3: The Rock Solid Value
6. Tony Romo
7. Michael Vick
8. Philip Rivers
9. Eli Manning
10. Peyton Manning

Who I want the most: Michael Vick. This year, Vick is a bargain. Rather than being drafted in the first round like last year, Vick should slip past the second and be available between the 3rd and 5th rounds. Jump on him. Last year's disappointment still ranked him 11th among all quarterbacks even with only 13 games played. And while I expected his rushing touchdowns from 2010 to decrease, I did not expect a 1 rushing touchdown season. He still averaged 8 yards a carry last season and has elite potential. Take your chances, but be sure to get a solid backup in case of injury.

Bust potential: Philip Rivers. While I was high on Rivers last year, this year worries me. Ryan Mathews is becoming a feature back and Rivers lost Vincent Jackson. While Rivers should still produce, he is more of a risk than previous years.

Tier 4: The Producers
11. Ben Roethlisberger
12. Matt Ryan
13. Matt Schaub

Who I want the most: Ben Roethlisberger. He has weapons in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. He also no longer has Rashard Mendenhall, which may actually help Big Ben's numbers. They will rely more on their passing attack and I think Roethlisberger will finish as a top 10 quarterback. Matt Ryan, who ranked in the top 10 last year, could also be a bargain with Turner aging and elite weapons in Roddy White and Julio Jones. If you miss out on any of the top 10 guys, do not be afraid to jump on either of these two.

Tier 5: The Rest
14. Jay Cutler
15. Robert Griffin III
16. Joe Flacco
17. Josh Freeman
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick
19. Andrew Luck
20. Tim Tebow

Who I want the most: Robert Griffin III. Or Tim Tebow. Griffin has huge upside in an above average offense in Washington. His running ability puts him into the Vick/Newton territory as he should benefit from 500+ rushing yards and around 5 rushing touchdowns. And as for Tim Tebow, well you know, I love him. Do not draft him, but keeps tabs on him because there is one current starting quarterback I could see Tebow overtaking. And that man is Mark Sanchez.

Sleeper Potential: Jay Cutler. As much as it pains me to say this, Cutler could be in for a big season. He is reunited with Brandon Marshall and has solid options in Chicago. With an offensive line that improved as the year went along, Cutler might actually see time in the pocket. While I won't be surprised to see his pouty face multiple times, Cutler might finally produce a better than average season.

Extra Sleeper: Nate Amodio. This season, instead of being a Woodhead/Tebow hybrid, he will be called upon to be the Aaron Rodgers of the returning playoff team, the Pineapple Chunkers. With an excellent scrimmage in the offseason already, his arm looks sharp and his decision making has been great. However, a second pulled hammy in 4 months is making him less than a surefire option. And he needs his mobility to be top-notch because as you all know, he can barely see over his own lineman in the pocket. But given a healthy body and handlebar mustache, I expect nothing less than excellence.

Deep Sleeper: JaMarcus Russell. I can't imagine waking this guy up. He slept through 3 NFL seasons.

This Summer

Those of you who actually follow this blog probably have noticed that I have not blogged for a long time. That is because I am working up at Cedar Campus in Michigan serving others and figuring out what God has in store for my life.

So. My blogging will be severely limited until early August when I plan to go on a draft prep rampage. This looks to be a crazy year in fantasy football as we will have some very interesting drafts. Hopefully, your league will draft after I get back to blogging because let's face it, you are probably in deep trouble without my help.

But to help you out just a bit before I am gone for the summer, here are my top 12 quarterbacks and top 12 overall.

Top 12 QB's 2012
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Matt Stafford
5. Cam Newton
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
8. Michael Vick
9. Eli Manning
10. Peyton Manning
11. Matt Schaub
12. Ben Roethlisberger

In August I will give the full breakdown and explanations of quarterbacks. Expect things to change slightly and headaches to occur once we get into the 4-10 range. There is lots of ELITE potential this year, but lots of risk and uncertainty surrounding the non-Rodgers non-Brady QB's. (Brees would be here if there was not so much uncertainty with the Saints.)

Top 12 Overall 2012
1. Arian Foster
2. Ray Rice
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Maurice Jones-Drew
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Chris Johnson
8. Tom Brady
9. Larry Fitzgerald
10. Drew Brees
11. Rob Gronkowski
12. Greg Jennings

First time I would ever consider taking a tight end in the first round. And first time there could be a strong argument for taking a quarterback first overall (sorry, Vick). Crazy draft. Get it!

Offseason Impact: From JaMarcus Russell to Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning, QB (IND to DEN): All you need to know is right here. It's Peyton Manning, everyone. Not too hard to imagine the type of impact he can have.

JaMarcus Russell, Bum (Couch Potatoes to Oscar Mayer Wieners): All kidding aside, check out this article on him from Sports Illustrated. It not only captures his true human side but how he deals with the struggles of being the biggest bust in the NFL.

Jacob Tamme, TE (IND to DEN): When Dallas Clark went down in 2010, Jacob Tamme took over. In the 10 games without Clark, Tamme caught 67 passes for over 600 yards and 4 touchdowns. Solid numbers for a guy very few people knew about (I did when he was in Kentucky but that is besides the point). Even though Denver also signed Joel Dressen from Houston, do not expect him to cut into Tamme's value. Tamme will be in line for a productive year with Manning looking his way a lot.

Michael Bush, RB (OAK to CHI): Another player who shined after the starter went down is Michael Bush, who will hopefully do better for the Bears than Marion Barber or Chester Taylor did. Bush gives the Bears extra insurance and a great power back to compliment Forte. But his time in Chicago will limit his value and make Forte's value plummet. Pay close attention to whether Forte holds out because if he does, Bush could actually get MORE touches then Forte. But don't overdraft either of these two as both will be limited by the running back committee.

Brandon Marshall, WR (MIA to CHI): Wide receivers go to die in Chicago, according to former wideout Muhsin Muhammad. Brandon Marshall, who has been a cancer in Denver and Miami, is looking for another new start in the NFL. Despite a Pro-Bowl MVP performance, he was never what Denver or Miami expected. Paired again with his former QB Jay Cutler, Marshall has a chance to really shine and make a Bears wide receiver actually relevant. Like usual, Marshall has top 10 potential, but will have to keep his BPD and dropped balls in check. He dropped 12 last year, putting him into a tie for second most among receivers. Be cautious with Marshall as he is big time risk, big time reward.

Matt Flynn, QB (GB to SEA): Aka, the next Kevin Kolb? Another mostly unproven quarterback earns a big paycheck despite limited playing experience. Flynn will be a very hard to predict quarterback this season as he has shown off his potential, but is still quite an unkown. If it helps, his mentor and number one fantasy quarterback Aaron Rodgers said that Flynn is a top 15 quarterback in the league. Whether or not he lives up to the hype, Flynn is worth a late round flier for those who need a backup quarterback. He has borderline top 10 potential, but there are better options with all the proven quarterbacks out there.

Vincent Jackson, WR (SD to TB): Jackson's value drops going from San Diego to Tampa Bay but he still will be a top 20 receiver this year. The real value change lies in Josh Freeman, who will get a significant boost throwing to Jackson. Freeman, who surprised many his rookie season, took several steps backward during his sophomore slump. Look for both to be solid fantasy contributors and locks for mid round picks.

Peyton Hillis, RB (CLE to KC): The Madden Curse. The reason I did not vote for Aaron Rodgers. An arguable reason Hillis did absolutely nothing last year. In his move to Kansas City where he will play behind Jamaal Charles, Hillis, much like Bush, will be limited. Hillis and Bush could both be touchdown stealers from Charles and Forte making what could have been four top twenty running backs into two borderline top 10 and two top 30 backs. Sigh. Running back committees.

Randy Moss, WR (FA to SF): Extremely disappointing production in 2010 followed up with no teams wanting him in 2011 does not bode well for the future Hall of Famer. But according to coach Jim Harbaugh, Moss is ready to return. With Alex Smith finally developing, Moss has great sleeper potential and could be a steal in this years draft. Then again, we may have Ochocinco 2.0. Look out as Moss could be a wasted pick. While the reward is fairly high, the risk may not be worth a pick.

Chad Henne, QB (MIA to JAX): With the the incredible rookie phenom Blaine Gabbert ahead of him... Wait, he was at that one end of the total QBR spectrum right? Oh, he was dead last? That end of the spectrum. Got it. While Henne could easily overtake the disappointing Gabbert, neither will offer fantasy value. It is as simple as it gets. I cannot fathom drafting either of them.

Brandon Lloyd, WR (STL to NE): Lloyd is an intriguing receiver for this years draft. Remember that year with Kyle Orton throwing to him? Well, I do and now, imagine Tom Brady throwing to this guy. Despite multiple options for Brady, Lloyd will have his chances and has solid number 2 wide receiver potential. This should not be a case of the Ochocinco as Lloyd has a legitimate shot to be productive. And I would draft him solely based on his Madden campaign video. Legit, I admit.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB (NE to CIN): No one thought BenJarvus would produce like he did in 2010. Well, except me. But he still did compile 11 touchdowns to go along with nearly 700 yards and zero fumbles. With Benson's status still in the air, Green-Ellis role is also undetermined. But if he does end up the number one option, Green-Ellis could have a season similar to 2010. The Bengals like to pound the ball and Green-Ellis is that guy much like Benson was. Keep BGE on your radar as he is a solid option.

Brandon Jacobs, RB (NYG to SF): Hello running back committee, again. Jacobs may not cut too heavily into Frank Gore's carries, but he certainly is a threat to steal touchdowns. With Gore being injury prone, Jacobs is definitely worth a pick this year. While his production will be tough to gauge, take a late round flier and hope it pans out.

Mario Manningham, WR (NYG to SF): Manningham has always been in the complimentary role as wide receiver and I do not expect that to change. With Randy Moss joining as well and Vernon Davis still there, keep your expectations of Manningham the same or just slightly better than his days with the Giants. The 49ers like to run and this year will be no different especially with Jacobs in the mix. Anticipate a 50 catch, 600 yard season from Manningham.

Mike Tolbert, RB (SD to CAR): Tolbert joins a very, might I say extremely, crowded backfield in Carolina. And when your quarterback was 2nd in the league in rushing touchdowns, well, good luck. Add DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to the mix, and you've got three running backs no one wants to touch. Avoid, avoid, avoid!

Robert Meachem, WR (NO to SD): Meachem could be a steal in this years draft. After years of a offense with multiple weapons, Meachem will have a chance to prove his worth in San Diego. Essentially taking over for Vincent Jackson, Meachem should be a favorite of Philip Rivers. Meachem could sneak into the top 10 by the end of the year, but for the moment, draft him in the top 25 with very high upside.

Oh wait. We were talking about Garcon.

Pierre Garcon, WR (IND to WAS): Garcon should be a top 30 receiver. Unless he absolutely gels with RGIII, do not expect a whole lot. Worth a pick, just do not get too excited.

Laurent Robinson, WR (DAL to JAX): While Miles Austin and Dez Bryant battled injuries, Robinson turned into a very reliable receiver in Dallas. But now in Jacksonville with the likes of either Henne or Blaine Gabbert throwing to him, do not expect much. Let's just say when your quarterback ranked 33rd out of 33 in total QBR, things do not look good.

Fantasy Impact: Manning to Broncos

About one week ago, my Tim Tebow jersey, along with a Clay Matthews jersey arrived in my school mailbox. I screamed loudly, my forehead vein bulging out, and I immediately Tebowed. Heads turned. People stared. It did not matter. I finally had a jersey of my role model, my man, Timmy Tebow, number fifteen of the DENVER BRONCOS. Never in my life had I cared so much for Denver. As a lifelong Green Bay fan, I had hated the Broncos ever since the 1998 Super Bowl. Not anymore. Because of one man.

Tim Tebow.

Number 15.

Of the.

NO LONGER DENVER BRONCOS!

While at first the Broncos trade hit a brief snag with the Jets, Tebow is now officially a member of the New York Jets. This is quite a bummer considering the price of NFL jerseys these days... I mean, even though I'm a Tebow fan and not a Broncos fan, nobody wants to be like that guy who always wears a New York Jets FAVRE jersey. I mean, really?

And what were the Broncos thinking anyway? Peyton Manning cannot throw nearly as accurate a wobbler as Tebow! Tebow has hands down one of the best wobblers I have ever seen. Period. End of discussion.

My personal feelings and all jokes aside, Manning's arrival means BIG things in the NFL, and has major fantasy implications. Before Manning's consecutive starts of 227 ended, Manning was the epitome of consistency. Since 2002 and ignoring last season when he was injured, he has never been outside of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks ranking 3,1,1,3,1,3,6,4,3 among quarterbacks up to 2010. Assuming Manning does fully regain his strength, we can expect nothing less than another elite season from Manning.

In Denver, Manning will be in an optimal situation with one the most complete teams on which he has ever been. Led by two-time Pro Bowler Ryan Clady, Manning will enjoy a very solid offensive line to go along with a productive run game. Young receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker give Manning okay options who could blossom with a competent quarterback throwing to them. For the two receivers that combined for 76 catches, 1163 yards, and 12 touchdowns, you can expect something more like that for EACH this season.

Here are the WR/TE (combined) rankings for Manning's top two targets since 2002.

• 2010: 9th, 30th
• 2009: 6th, 12th
• 2008: 15th, 31st
• 2007: 4th, 27th
• 2006: 1st, 3rd
• 2005: 6th, 21st
• 2004: 5th, 7th
• 2003: 5th, 21st
• 2002: 1st, 50th

While Decker and Thomas are no Wayne or Harrison, just imagine the impact Manning will have one these two blossoming receivers. Both Decker and Thomas will be entering the magical third season in the league and they will go from catching wobblers, to catching lasers. Both wideouts showed flashes of potential throughout the season and both have shown their big play capabilities. And Manning's top two targets are highly likely to both have productive seasons. 

While neither receiver is polished or a big name yet, I expect some drastic improvement. However, one area for concern is their ability to hold onto the ball. Both receivers ranked in the bottom twenty receivers for drop percentages of those who had at least 30 catchable balls thrown their way. Of 53 catchable balls thrown Decker's way, he caught 44, resulting in 9 drops for a drop percentage of 16.98 percent. Of 37 catachable balls thrown Thomas' way, he caught 32, resulting in 5 drops for a drop percentage of 13.51 percent. (numbers courtesy of https://www.profootballfocus.com/)

These numbers are alarming, but I think they will change with another year under their belt and that guy named Manning throwing to them. No joke. Going from a high and behind wobbler to a laser to the chest could make a crucial difference. Gone are the days of diving into traffic for balls. Gone are the days of Tebow missing them when they were actually open. Enter crisp routes where the ball will be thrown there right on time to the chest. Enter, Peyton Manning.

So what does this all mean? Well, for starters, Manning will surely be a top 10, maybe even top five quarterback again. Expect Demaryius Thomas to be a top 15, maybe even top 10 wide receiver while Eric Decker has the potential to be anywhere from a top 30 to top 15 wide receiver. As of now, I would expect to draft both somewhere among the top 20 wide receivers.

As for Denver's running backs, I would avoid them, but expect solid contributions from a mix of Knowshon Moreno, Willis McGahee, and even Lance Ball. If one is able to emerge as the clear cut starter, expect production similar or slightly better than the days of Joseph Addai.

And as for Tebow. Well, I love the guy and all, but expect little to no value if he winds up in New York. While he certainly could push the Jets to bench Mark Sanchez, I just do not see that happening. But then again, no one really expected Tebow to play as much as he did leading up to last season. And if you are feeling like Tebow may overtake the supposedly lazy and previously unchallenged Sanchez, well by all means take a flier on him and perhaps there will be more Tebow Time this upcoming season.

Finally. All this Tebow news did not come without the expense of my own personal happiness and dignity.

11:32 AM, March 21st.
I thought I received the best news of my life.

Walking through the Chick-Fil-A parking lot, I get a text from a trustworthy, reliable friend. I read the words, "Dude, Tebow just signed with the Packers." Immediately, I jumped up and down, screaming like a little girl, probably much like a girl at a Justin Bieber concert. My heart pounded. My body leaped for joy. My sisters backed away from me. Slowly. Pretending not to know me...

I ran inside Chick-Fil-A and began began searching for the article on ESPN when to my dismay, I found out my that friend was misinformed. Tebow was heading to the Jets. What would have been my wildest dream come true, was now over. The hope of Aaron Rodgers and staff turning Tebow into a real quarterback had been crushed. My dream, my hope, my heart, flipped upside down.