Fantasy Impact: Manning to Broncos

About one week ago, my Tim Tebow jersey, along with a Clay Matthews jersey arrived in my school mailbox. I screamed loudly, my forehead vein bulging out, and I immediately Tebowed. Heads turned. People stared. It did not matter. I finally had a jersey of my role model, my man, Timmy Tebow, number fifteen of the DENVER BRONCOS. Never in my life had I cared so much for Denver. As a lifelong Green Bay fan, I had hated the Broncos ever since the 1998 Super Bowl. Not anymore. Because of one man.

Tim Tebow.

Number 15.

Of the.

NO LONGER DENVER BRONCOS!

While at first the Broncos trade hit a brief snag with the Jets, Tebow is now officially a member of the New York Jets. This is quite a bummer considering the price of NFL jerseys these days... I mean, even though I'm a Tebow fan and not a Broncos fan, nobody wants to be like that guy who always wears a New York Jets FAVRE jersey. I mean, really?

And what were the Broncos thinking anyway? Peyton Manning cannot throw nearly as accurate a wobbler as Tebow! Tebow has hands down one of the best wobblers I have ever seen. Period. End of discussion.

My personal feelings and all jokes aside, Manning's arrival means BIG things in the NFL, and has major fantasy implications. Before Manning's consecutive starts of 227 ended, Manning was the epitome of consistency. Since 2002 and ignoring last season when he was injured, he has never been outside of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks ranking 3,1,1,3,1,3,6,4,3 among quarterbacks up to 2010. Assuming Manning does fully regain his strength, we can expect nothing less than another elite season from Manning.

In Denver, Manning will be in an optimal situation with one the most complete teams on which he has ever been. Led by two-time Pro Bowler Ryan Clady, Manning will enjoy a very solid offensive line to go along with a productive run game. Young receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker give Manning okay options who could blossom with a competent quarterback throwing to them. For the two receivers that combined for 76 catches, 1163 yards, and 12 touchdowns, you can expect something more like that for EACH this season.

Here are the WR/TE (combined) rankings for Manning's top two targets since 2002.

• 2010: 9th, 30th
• 2009: 6th, 12th
• 2008: 15th, 31st
• 2007: 4th, 27th
• 2006: 1st, 3rd
• 2005: 6th, 21st
• 2004: 5th, 7th
• 2003: 5th, 21st
• 2002: 1st, 50th

While Decker and Thomas are no Wayne or Harrison, just imagine the impact Manning will have one these two blossoming receivers. Both Decker and Thomas will be entering the magical third season in the league and they will go from catching wobblers, to catching lasers. Both wideouts showed flashes of potential throughout the season and both have shown their big play capabilities. And Manning's top two targets are highly likely to both have productive seasons. 

While neither receiver is polished or a big name yet, I expect some drastic improvement. However, one area for concern is their ability to hold onto the ball. Both receivers ranked in the bottom twenty receivers for drop percentages of those who had at least 30 catchable balls thrown their way. Of 53 catchable balls thrown Decker's way, he caught 44, resulting in 9 drops for a drop percentage of 16.98 percent. Of 37 catachable balls thrown Thomas' way, he caught 32, resulting in 5 drops for a drop percentage of 13.51 percent. (numbers courtesy of https://www.profootballfocus.com/)

These numbers are alarming, but I think they will change with another year under their belt and that guy named Manning throwing to them. No joke. Going from a high and behind wobbler to a laser to the chest could make a crucial difference. Gone are the days of diving into traffic for balls. Gone are the days of Tebow missing them when they were actually open. Enter crisp routes where the ball will be thrown there right on time to the chest. Enter, Peyton Manning.

So what does this all mean? Well, for starters, Manning will surely be a top 10, maybe even top five quarterback again. Expect Demaryius Thomas to be a top 15, maybe even top 10 wide receiver while Eric Decker has the potential to be anywhere from a top 30 to top 15 wide receiver. As of now, I would expect to draft both somewhere among the top 20 wide receivers.

As for Denver's running backs, I would avoid them, but expect solid contributions from a mix of Knowshon Moreno, Willis McGahee, and even Lance Ball. If one is able to emerge as the clear cut starter, expect production similar or slightly better than the days of Joseph Addai.

And as for Tebow. Well, I love the guy and all, but expect little to no value if he winds up in New York. While he certainly could push the Jets to bench Mark Sanchez, I just do not see that happening. But then again, no one really expected Tebow to play as much as he did leading up to last season. And if you are feeling like Tebow may overtake the supposedly lazy and previously unchallenged Sanchez, well by all means take a flier on him and perhaps there will be more Tebow Time this upcoming season.

Finally. All this Tebow news did not come without the expense of my own personal happiness and dignity.

11:32 AM, March 21st.
I thought I received the best news of my life.

Walking through the Chick-Fil-A parking lot, I get a text from a trustworthy, reliable friend. I read the words, "Dude, Tebow just signed with the Packers." Immediately, I jumped up and down, screaming like a little girl, probably much like a girl at a Justin Bieber concert. My heart pounded. My body leaped for joy. My sisters backed away from me. Slowly. Pretending not to know me...

I ran inside Chick-Fil-A and began began searching for the article on ESPN when to my dismay, I found out my that friend was misinformed. Tebow was heading to the Jets. What would have been my wildest dream come true, was now over. The hope of Aaron Rodgers and staff turning Tebow into a real quarterback had been crushed. My dream, my hope, my heart, flipped upside down.

Draft Day Tips: Rookies To Watch For

       Last year, only a couple rookies really made a splash in the fantasy football world. Those who stumbled upon the likes of Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount had to be extremely pleased with their solid production. Others, mainly Ryan Matthews and C.J. Spiller, were major disappointments and brought little to the table. But finding a solid rookie who can instantly produce is tough to come by these days and hardly predictable.
       For instance, someone like Jimmy Clausen who had one of the easier paths to becoming a starter, failed miserably to put up even decent quarterback numbers. But Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, rookie tight ends on the same team both became serviceable options at some point during the season. Last year's class is fairly promising for THIS years draft with Dez Bryant, Jahvid Best, Sam Bradford, and others looking to breakout this year. But, as for this years draft, here are my top rookies and the level of impact they will have this season.

       Daniel Thomas (RB, MIA, ADP 76): With both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams gone, Daniel Thomas will be the main feature in Miami. Oh wait, Reggie Bush is now there. But don't fret, Bush will keep his role as a third down back and won't hurt Thomas' value too much. This bruiser out of Kansas State should see a great amount of carries and will be Miami's workhorse. But, we all know that doesn't mean instant success for a rookie. Expect a solid impact with potential to be a high-end number 2 back.

       Mark Ingram (RB, NO, ADP 65): Once again, the New Orleans' backfield has become a three-headed monster with Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles. While early indications are that Ingram should see the bulk of the carries, there is no doubt that Thomas and Sproles both have potential to get their fair share. This limits Ingram's value despite his tremendous upside on the high-powered Saints. I would generally avoid Ingram considering his draft position, but he could put up solid stats. Expect a decent impact with solid number 2 RB potential.
       Julio Jones (WR, ATL, ADP 105): While fellow rookie wideout A.J. Green is being taken higher in drafts, I think Jones has more potential for his rookie campaign. Jones is being set into an already great offense with a fantastic quarterback in Matt Ryan. There are rave reviews right now for Jones and he could end up making a difference with Roddy White drawing double teams. Do not expect an immediate impact, but a good impact later in the season. Keep your eye on him.
       Roy Helu (RB, WSH, ADP 130): Regarded highly by Coach Mike Shanahan, Helu will definitely see some playing time. How much that is relies heavily on injury prone Ryan Torain and newly acquired Tim Hightower. While it is a cluttered backfield, Helu has great potential and could emerge as Shanahan's new guy. If Torain gets hurt, I think Helu could really shine and have a big fantasy impact. But until then, expect just a marginal impact on behalf of Helu.
       A.J. Green (WR, CIN, ADP 89): A.J. Green is in the perfect situation. He is a promising rookie wide receiver expected to start in week 1. And he plays for the mighty, oh, wait. Cincinnati Bengals. At least he has Carson Pal... Oh. Maybe not. Well, Green does have a promising future ahead of him with Andy Dalton looking to develop. But the Bengals, without Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer, may have a rough time against punishing defenses like Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice a season. And with the chance of Bruce Gradkowski throwing to him, Green will find it tough to be fantasy relevant. Expect a marginal fantasy impact with potential to be a low-end number 3 receiver.
       Ryan Williams (RB, ARI, ADP 91): Arizona made a surprising pick with Williams despite taking Beanie Wells in the first round just two years ago. Williams will get carries, but needs time to adjust to the NFL especially coming off an injury. I do not see Arizona giving up on Beanie so quickly, but Williams could make a splash if Wells struggles again. Expect a moderate impact from Williams.
       Alex Henry (K, PHI, ADP 152): If you know me, then you know my thoughts on kickers. But Henry may actually end up being the most fantasy relevant rookie (kind of). He is on the high-powered Eagles and will see plenty of points. But is any kicker really more fantasy relevant than another? Even if you take him (it better be in the last round), it's not like he will be any different from any other kicker. Hard to predict (and even harder because he's a rookie) and not a difference maker. But he could finish in the top 10 at his position. Which is why I guess I have to say that he will have a solid fantasy impact.
       Cam Newton (QB, CAR, ADP 131): There is really no reason to draft him. Although he can compile rushing yards, expect no fantasy impact from Newton this season.
       Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, ATL, undrafted): Rodgers' value falls solely in PPR leagues. He is still the third man in Atlanta and very undersized. But he is electrifying and should find the field at least a little bit. Monitor him for leagues that give points for catches. Other than that, he really has no value.
       Dane Sanzenbacher (WR, CHI, undrafted): Consider him a very, very deep sleeper. His chances of even making the team are not that high, but they seem to improve every day. He is even challenging Earl Bennett for FIRST team slot reps. Who knows? He could be the next Wes Welker. While realistically he won't have value this season, I think he could surprise and see the field more than one would think. If you are in a deep league, give him a shot.
       My former fellow Illini Mikel Leshore would have made this list if not due to a season ending injury. He still has a promising future ahead of him. But with the luck the Lions have had drafting, maybe they should look at fellow Fighting Illini Nate Amodio who rushed for 1 touchdown in the intramural season. He could make the transition from QB to RB as long as the NFL makes a rule for the max player weight to be 150.