Fantasy Impact: Manning to Broncos

About one week ago, my Tim Tebow jersey, along with a Clay Matthews jersey arrived in my school mailbox. I screamed loudly, my forehead vein bulging out, and I immediately Tebowed. Heads turned. People stared. It did not matter. I finally had a jersey of my role model, my man, Timmy Tebow, number fifteen of the DENVER BRONCOS. Never in my life had I cared so much for Denver. As a lifelong Green Bay fan, I had hated the Broncos ever since the 1998 Super Bowl. Not anymore. Because of one man.

Tim Tebow.

Number 15.

Of the.

NO LONGER DENVER BRONCOS!

While at first the Broncos trade hit a brief snag with the Jets, Tebow is now officially a member of the New York Jets. This is quite a bummer considering the price of NFL jerseys these days... I mean, even though I'm a Tebow fan and not a Broncos fan, nobody wants to be like that guy who always wears a New York Jets FAVRE jersey. I mean, really?

And what were the Broncos thinking anyway? Peyton Manning cannot throw nearly as accurate a wobbler as Tebow! Tebow has hands down one of the best wobblers I have ever seen. Period. End of discussion.

My personal feelings and all jokes aside, Manning's arrival means BIG things in the NFL, and has major fantasy implications. Before Manning's consecutive starts of 227 ended, Manning was the epitome of consistency. Since 2002 and ignoring last season when he was injured, he has never been outside of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks ranking 3,1,1,3,1,3,6,4,3 among quarterbacks up to 2010. Assuming Manning does fully regain his strength, we can expect nothing less than another elite season from Manning.

In Denver, Manning will be in an optimal situation with one the most complete teams on which he has ever been. Led by two-time Pro Bowler Ryan Clady, Manning will enjoy a very solid offensive line to go along with a productive run game. Young receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker give Manning okay options who could blossom with a competent quarterback throwing to them. For the two receivers that combined for 76 catches, 1163 yards, and 12 touchdowns, you can expect something more like that for EACH this season.

Here are the WR/TE (combined) rankings for Manning's top two targets since 2002.

• 2010: 9th, 30th
• 2009: 6th, 12th
• 2008: 15th, 31st
• 2007: 4th, 27th
• 2006: 1st, 3rd
• 2005: 6th, 21st
• 2004: 5th, 7th
• 2003: 5th, 21st
• 2002: 1st, 50th

While Decker and Thomas are no Wayne or Harrison, just imagine the impact Manning will have one these two blossoming receivers. Both Decker and Thomas will be entering the magical third season in the league and they will go from catching wobblers, to catching lasers. Both wideouts showed flashes of potential throughout the season and both have shown their big play capabilities. And Manning's top two targets are highly likely to both have productive seasons. 

While neither receiver is polished or a big name yet, I expect some drastic improvement. However, one area for concern is their ability to hold onto the ball. Both receivers ranked in the bottom twenty receivers for drop percentages of those who had at least 30 catchable balls thrown their way. Of 53 catchable balls thrown Decker's way, he caught 44, resulting in 9 drops for a drop percentage of 16.98 percent. Of 37 catachable balls thrown Thomas' way, he caught 32, resulting in 5 drops for a drop percentage of 13.51 percent. (numbers courtesy of https://www.profootballfocus.com/)

These numbers are alarming, but I think they will change with another year under their belt and that guy named Manning throwing to them. No joke. Going from a high and behind wobbler to a laser to the chest could make a crucial difference. Gone are the days of diving into traffic for balls. Gone are the days of Tebow missing them when they were actually open. Enter crisp routes where the ball will be thrown there right on time to the chest. Enter, Peyton Manning.

So what does this all mean? Well, for starters, Manning will surely be a top 10, maybe even top five quarterback again. Expect Demaryius Thomas to be a top 15, maybe even top 10 wide receiver while Eric Decker has the potential to be anywhere from a top 30 to top 15 wide receiver. As of now, I would expect to draft both somewhere among the top 20 wide receivers.

As for Denver's running backs, I would avoid them, but expect solid contributions from a mix of Knowshon Moreno, Willis McGahee, and even Lance Ball. If one is able to emerge as the clear cut starter, expect production similar or slightly better than the days of Joseph Addai.

And as for Tebow. Well, I love the guy and all, but expect little to no value if he winds up in New York. While he certainly could push the Jets to bench Mark Sanchez, I just do not see that happening. But then again, no one really expected Tebow to play as much as he did leading up to last season. And if you are feeling like Tebow may overtake the supposedly lazy and previously unchallenged Sanchez, well by all means take a flier on him and perhaps there will be more Tebow Time this upcoming season.

Finally. All this Tebow news did not come without the expense of my own personal happiness and dignity.

11:32 AM, March 21st.
I thought I received the best news of my life.

Walking through the Chick-Fil-A parking lot, I get a text from a trustworthy, reliable friend. I read the words, "Dude, Tebow just signed with the Packers." Immediately, I jumped up and down, screaming like a little girl, probably much like a girl at a Justin Bieber concert. My heart pounded. My body leaped for joy. My sisters backed away from me. Slowly. Pretending not to know me...

I ran inside Chick-Fil-A and began began searching for the article on ESPN when to my dismay, I found out my that friend was misinformed. Tebow was heading to the Jets. What would have been my wildest dream come true, was now over. The hope of Aaron Rodgers and staff turning Tebow into a real quarterback had been crushed. My dream, my hope, my heart, flipped upside down.

2011 WR Tiers

       Every year, wide receivers are probably the hardest to predict for fantasy success. Of the top 20 from each previous season, only about 10 remain there the next season. So 50% of the top 20 will be there this year and a new 10 players should fill those spots. So here is my attempt at putting these guys into tiers for the 2011 season.


1: Best of Best: Andre Johnson
      Player I want most: Andre Johnson. He is a class of his own and the only receiver that could possibly warrant a top 10 selection. He may be a quiet and humble player, but he knows when to give a guy a smackdown. 

2-5: Elite: Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings

       Player I want most: Roddy White. He is the most consistent here although do not be surprised if Fitzgerald can make a comeback to the top 2. Even with the likes of John Skelton, Derek Anderson, and Max Hall quarterbacking, Fitzy still put up a solid 90 catches, 1137 yards, and 6 TD's. With Kolb now at Qb, his value could shoot up.

       The only injury risk here is Calvin Johnson who seems to get nicked up every year. But with the most freakish talent of them all and a healthy QB, Megatron may be ready for a mega year. And Jennings is no doubt a great receiver, but may find the ball less with the return of Jermichael Finely and a plethora of targets for Aaron Rodgers. 

6-10: Still Number 1 Options: Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, Reggie Wayne

       Player I want most: Vincent Jackson. This is a very interesting tier as Wayne has fallen more than we've seen and newcomers Nicks and Wallace make a splash. Philip Rivers produces no matter who his receivers are and with Jackson back to action, he figures to be a prime target and in line for a great season.

       Mike Wallace is simply explosive with 21.0 yards per catch last season and is still Big Ben's number 1 target. Austin appears to be the safest of the Cowboy's receivers and with Romo back, Austin will succeed. But Reggie Wayne, a perennial producer has dropped due to several reasons. He had a career high 12 drops last season and appears to have lost a bit of his step.  Even coming off a career high in receptions, he is now 32 and other options in Indy have stepped up making Wayne a solid, but not as surefire option.

11-15: Solid: DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Marshall

       Player I want most: Dwayne Bowe. He broke out last year and is primed for another big year. But his success depends greatly on Matt Cassell's consistency. Bowe has top 10 potential although will most likely hover between the 10 to 15 mark.

       DeSean Jackson is another playmaker who relies on big plays to produce fantasy points. Him and Maclin should both be solid options in the fast Philly offense. Marshall here is the biggest question but also has great potential to return to his old form. With the QB situation looking ever so slightly better in Miami, Marshall could rebound nicely, or plummet even more.  In PPR leagues, jump on Welker. He will not disappoint. 

16-20: The Hard to Predict: Dez Bryant, Mike Williams, Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Lloyd

       Player I want most: Marques Colston: Drew Brees spreads the ball like crazy in New Orleans, but Colston still puts up solid seasons.  He has the best track record here and you know what you will get with him.

       Williams and Lloyd were both major surprises last season. While Williams could potentially improve, Lloyd has nowhere to go but down and is a risky pick. Bryant and Holmes each have great potential with solid receivers around them. Bryant cold even be the best receiver in Dallas, but it is just too hard to predict with these guys.

21-25: Potential: Kenny Britt, Steve Johnson, Mario Manningham, Austin Collie, Percy Harvin

       Player I want most: Kenny Britt. With Hasselbeck or Locker at QB, I expect Britt to develop into the solid receiver we saw glimpses of last season.

       Look for Collie in the mid rounds as he could return to his pre-concussion form. As for Harvin, with McNabb throwing and Rice gone, he will be the main target and a good mid option.

26-35: A Bundle of Players: Anquan Boldin, Chad Ochocinco, Santana Moss, Sidney Rice, Pierre Garcon, Malcom Floyd, Mike Thomas, Johnny Knox, Steve Smith (CAR), Michael Crabtree

       Player I want most: Chad Ochocinco. Now in New England, he has great potential and will be available much later in the draft.  He is worth the risk as he could really shine with Brady.

       None of these players are sure things. The safest may be Boldin and you'll have to probably have to pick at least one of these guys so good luck.

36-47: Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Lance Moore, Julio Jones, Jerome Simpson, Deion Branch, Davone Bess, Robert Meachem, Roy Williams, James Jones, Hines Ward

       Player I want most: Julio Jones. With Michael Jenkins gone, look for Jones to get a fair share of targets as Roddy White will draw many double teams.

       There's potential here as many of these guys will be hit or miss. In PPR leagues, look for Davone Bess who quietly caught 80 passes.

Sleepers: Jacoby Ford, Steve Breaston, Danny Amendola, Emmanuel Sanders

       Ford showed big play potential and Amendola is a great PPR bargain. Breaston has a chance with a new team and Sanders could find himself in the mix in Pittsburgh. 

      

2011 Fantasy RB Tiers

1-3: Best of the Best: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster

       Player I want most: Adrian Peterson: For the past four years, he has been in the top 5 despite not ever being number 1. Even with his quarterback situation, he has never been hurt by the likes of poor quarterbacks like Tavaris Jackson so I expect more greatness from All Day.

       All of the 3 RB's here have a case to be number one and you can't go wrong with any with the exception of Foster. When it was found out Foster played all last season with a knee injury, it made his season that more incredible. Still, after just one season, he is the least proven of the three and will find it hard to match last season's numbers.

4-7: Elite: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice

       Player I want most: Jamaal Charles. He has the freshest legs of any and has an electrifying 6.0 yards per carry for his CAREER.  

       In PPR leagues, these guys are studs as they are great out of the backfield. I would elevate McCoy to 4th overall because he is bound to have lots of catches from Vick. Once again, these four are all fairly proven and have solid upside.  The only concern here is with MJD and his injuries. But if healthy, you can expect around 1,600 yards and 8-10 TD's.

8-10: Rock Solid: Rashard Mendehall, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson

       Player I want most: Steven Jackson. Often a late 1st rounder, Jackson is a mark of consistency and is unchallenged at the running back position in St. Louis. And in PPR leagues, he goes ahead of Mendenhall and Turner. Despite a career low in yards per carry for Jackson, I'll take him anytime.

       Michael Turner is my next favorite here as the Falcons constantly pound the ball with him.  Mendenhall averaged just 3.9 yards a carry last year, but his 12 TD's more than made up for it.  Why do I rank Mendenhall ahead of both then? His upside is higher and unlike Jackson and Turner, he is far from age 30. 

11-13: The Iffy Good: Frank Gore, Peyton Hillis, Darren McFadden

       Player I want most: Peyton Hillis. Why? He's white. 

       All kidding aside, I do not trust McFadden and every year Gore seems to be hurt. Nonetheless, this trio is decent early to mid second round options. But it would not surprise me if the Madden curse hits Hillis, Gore gets hurt, and McFadden returns to uninspiring.  

       Player I do NOT want: Darren McFadden

14-16: Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, LeGarrett Blount

       Player I want most: Forte. Despite being a Packers fan, I think Forte will be a great value pick and a solid option.  Blount and Moreno each have good potential, but are a little more unsure picks.

17-21: The Free Agents and Young'ins:  Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Jahvid Best

       Player I want most: Green-Ellis.  With an annoyingly long name, I think the Pats will run the ball enough to get Green-Ellis some quality scores and yardage.

       What to do with Stewart, Williams, and Bradshaw? All are pending free agents and it's very hard to tell of their value till they sign.  Stewart right now looks to be the safest as he should return to Carolina where he will certainly run the ball a lot.  With Best most likely splitting carries, it will tough for him to produce.

22-25: Redemption Backs: Cedric Benson, Ryan Matthews, Shonn Greene, Felix Jones

       Player I want most: Shonn Greene. All of these backs were in some way a disappointment last season but I expect Matthews and Green in particular to put up good, if not great numbers.  Greene will be of tremendous value for where is being picked and definitely worth a chance.

26-29: Fred Jackson, Ryan Grant, James Starks, Daniel Thomas

       Player I want most: Ryan Grant. If Grant does retake the starter's role in Green Bay, I think he will pick up where he left off.  That is about 1,200 yards and 4-6 TD's. But this is a big IF.

30-37: Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Torain, Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Williams, Joseph Addai, Mike Tolbert

       Player I want most: Brandon Jacobs.  If Bradshaw leaves, Jacobs will see his value spike.  Either way, for a running back committee, he certainly makes the most of it and should produce touchdowns.

38-47: The Rest: C.J. Spiller, Michael Bush, Beanie Wells, LaDanian Tomlinson, Thomas Jones, Danny Woodhead, Montario Hardesty, Mike Goodson, Rashad Jennings, Ronnie Brown

       Player I want most: Not really anyone besides Woodhead. I mean, who doesn't like that little guy. He's only got 2 inches on me.  But of all of these, Spiller for sure has the most athletic potential and should see a fair amount of carries as Fred Jackson's backup. Rashad Jennings is a very necessary handcuff for MJD.

2011 Quarterback Sleepers

QB Sleepers:
  
       Josh Freeman: While he won’t go under the radar like he did last year, Freeman definitely has the talent to produce even better. I would not be surprised if he puts up top 10 maybe even top 7 numbers.  With his running ability and improving Bucs' offense, he could be a steal in the middle rounds.

      JaMarcus Russell:  Last year, Plaxico Burress was ranked ahead of Russell in last year’s ESPN preseason rankings.  What this means is that a man who was in jail was more likely to score more points than Russell.  I expect Russell to consume at least 100 hot dogs and 250 Wendy’s Baconators during the season, with potential to exceed our expecations.

       Kevin Kolb: With Larry Fitzgerald as his new best friend, Kolb has a chance to develop into a solid fantasy quarterback. He has shown flashes of potential but is still far from proven in limited starts. He sports a mediocre 73.2 passer rating but will have his chance to improve on that with a fresh new start. Kolb should definitely be available in the late rounds and is worth a shot as a solid backup and potential to be a low end starter.

Deeper QB Sleepers:

       Tim Tebow:  While many still question whether or not Tebow can be a capable quarterback in the NFL, I have no doubt in my mind he will.  And despite my love for the greatest college quarterback, I do not expect that to happen this season.  But Tebow has something that only Rodgers, Vick, and Freeman have: running ability.  In the three games Tebow started, he scored 22, 22, and 27 fantasy points.  He helped those few owners out who started him during the fantasy playoff weeks with very solid numbers. 51% of his fantasy points came from his rushing stats and that is why he is a decent fantasy option this season and a great late round pick. This is IF he starts.

      Ryan Fitzpatrick:  He started last year on fire and some people pegged him as a must start option. Teehee. Nope. But I do think Fitzpatrick, the Harvard grad, has some potential to come close to last year’s first half.  While I would not neccessarily draft him, I would keep tabs on him for the week 8 bye of Rodgers, Ryan, and Freeman. Fitzpatrick has an excellent matchup against Washington’s defense.

       Jason Campbell:  A quarterback who has never lived up to expectations, Campbell has a chance for a decent year with loads of speed around him.  Assuming Coach Tom Cable doesn’t randomly bench him for the incapable Bruce Gradkowski, don’t be surprised if Campbell finally puts in a good one.

Nate Robinson to the NFL?

       Nate Robinson of the Oklahoma City Thunder declared recently that he may give the NFL a shot.  This is in the midst of the NBA lockout. So, Nate, you're thinking of going from one locked out sport to another locked out sport. Okay. Hmm...

       Well assuming Nate actually does give the NFL a shot, the question is if he actually make an NFL roster.  At 5'9", 180 pounds, he is undersized but extremely athletic and agile with a 43 inch vertical.  In high school, he played running back, wide receiver and defensive back. But if he were to play in the NFL, I think DB would be most suitable. Many people do not know that Robinson actually played one year of college ball at the University of Washington and recorded 34 tackles and 2 interceptions as a cornerback (gohuskies.com). Not bad eh?

Fantasy football implications: 
       Let's say, for instance, Nate becomes a running back. I see him as a surefire 2nd round pick and no lower than the 3rd round. After all, we've seen so many athlete transitions from the NBA to the NFL... I think Robinson will be best suited for the Seahawks where he can sport his Kryptonite green, leaving defenders helpless. His only goal will be to score touchdowns so he can show off his decent dunking ability on the goal post. With his slam dunk experience, I expect nothing less than him passing to himself with a sweet underhand lob, leaping over his lineman, catching the ball and going through the legs.  This should leave him in the open field for some big gains.

       So once you take Nate Robinson in the 2nd round, you should definitely look at a similar Nate in the 3rd round.  Just 3 inches shorter, white, and a sleek 150 pounds, Nate Amodio showed potential in the latest intramural football season. He is relative unknown in the football world, but could make a splash if he improves on his 10 TD's to 12 picks and 1-3 record. With Robinson as your starting running back and Amodio at your starting quarterback, I don't see how your season can go wrong.



Here are some of Nate Robinson's high school highlights for those interested.