Friday, August 3, 2012

Quarterback Consistency Ratings


Using standard scoring (6 points for all touchdowns, 1 point for 25 passing yards), I have put together a consistency chart from last season. When it comes to fantasy football, consistency is quite possibly the most important factor when it comes to drafting players. There are players like Devery Henderson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Beanie Wells who can produce monster weeks. Then they follow up with a dud. The main problem with these players is that they are not reliable week to week players. So finding players who can produce on a weekly basis is essential to winning.

The chart (below) is pretty straight forward and does not need too much analysis. But here are a couple of my quick notes from the chart.

  • Aaron Rodgers does have a real argument to be the number one overall pick. Talk about consistent. 
  • While Matt Stafford and Cam Newton are considered elite this year, there is a solid drop-off from Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
  • Of the top 10 last year, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers produced the most duds.
  • Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, and Newton were the only QB's with multiple freak games. None for Brady or Michael Vick.
  • While Vick disappointed, he was not as inconsistent as Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, or Philip Rivers (Although he did miss more games).
  • Ben Roethlisberger really had some duds, but he also flashed freak potential.
  • Of quarterbacks outside of the top 10, Tebow really is a solid option. If he were not a backup in real life, he could make an impact again in the fantasy world. 
  • Peyton Manning is clearly not here. But if we looked any of Manning's previous seasons, I'm pretty sure he'd be near the top. Just a hunch.

So here are the quarterback consistency ratings from last year.

But before you lay your eyes on this graph, I apologize for the sheer ugliness. This is why I am no longer a Computer Science major. This stuff just did not click in my brain. And no friends, for whatever dumb reason, there is no "inset table button". Rather, I had to do the whole shabang in html. Fun, huh? No. Not. At. All. If I ever do a running backs or wide receivers consistency chart, you can bet I'll hire a CS major to help me. Seriously, how the heck does it not line up? I must have spent about 20 minutes just trying to make it line up and this is what I got. Sigh. Enjoy.

* Update. Three hours later and I have figured it out. Brilliant! The chart's columns are lined up!

Freak Stud Great Start Dud
Player > 35 25 20 15 <15Inj/Sit% Great
Rodgers 5 7 3 0 0 1100.00
Brees 4 6 3 2 1 0 81.25
Brady 1 8 4 3 0 0 81.25
Stafford 3     5     3     3     2     0     68.75
Newton 2 7 2 2 3 0     68.75
E.Manning  0 7 3 1 5 0 62.50
Romo 1 5 2 5 2 1 53.33
Ryan 1             4          2          5          4         0             43.75       
Rivers 0 4 2 5 5 0     37.50
Sanchez  0 3 4 3 6 0 43.75
Vick 0 5 2 2 4 3 53.85
Fitzpatrick  0           3         1          5         7         0            25.00      
Big Ben 1 1 2 4 7 1     26.67
Smith 0 0 5 3 8 0 31.25
Flacco        0 2 1 4 9 0 18.75
Dalton 0           2          2          4         8        0            25.00      
Freeman 0 1 2 4 8     1     20.00
Hasselbeck 0 0 5 2 9 0 31.25
Tebow 0 3 1 5 3 4 33.33
Schaub 0          1          4          1          4         6           50.00      


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