Patriots Finally Find Their Franchise Quarterback in Tim Tebow

In early June, the Patriots made headlines by bringing in Tim Tebow. After a decade of embarrassing quarterback play, the Patriots have finally found their franchise quarterback.

In his opening press conference, Coach Belichick breathed a sigh of relief as he talked about Tebow after dealing with Tom Brady for years. The typically-jubilant Belichick displayed all sorts of emotions, ranging from chants of "Tebow, Tebow," to crying over the previous years of quarterback play. After Brady averaged only 30 touchdown passes a season and had a career passer rating of 96.6, the Patriots decided it was time to upgrade. Replacing Brady's crisp, on-the-money passes are Tebow's beautiful lame ducks that give everyone on the field a chance to catch. In practice, this not only allows the receivers to work on their hands but also the defensive backs, linebackers, and even the defensive lineman. Every position will get its fair share of passes.

Long gone is the slow Brady. In comes the new savior of the franchise.

We were all shocked in the 2000's when the Patriots became the team to beat despite not having "the man." There were reports that the Patriots aggressively pursued Rex Grossman because of what an upgrade he would have been over their previous situation. Another bad break ensued when former first rounder JaMarcus Russell turned them down in an apparent effort to catch Joey Chestnut. Now, after years of quarterback turmoil, the Patriots have their man.

It should come as no surprise that the Patriots signed the greatest Denver Broncos quarterback in history. But what the Patriots gain is the Broncos loss, as they have had to settle for Peyton Manning this past season. With no wins in the playoffs, it's already looking like the Broncos are trying to find a new cornerstone. But the Patriots appear to be set for at least the next 15 years, give or take a few.

Belichick was overcome with joy when talking about Tebow.
He said he expects an 80% completion percentage and 6,000 yards.

Fantasy Impact:
Not only does this turn the Patriots from a borderline playoff team to Super Bowl favorite, but the Patriots finally become relevant in the fantasy football realm. Tebow brings a lot to the table so let's analyze this top two fantasy pick:

Tebow will almost assuredly lead the league in autographs signed as his unquestioned popularity makes him a fan favorite. It also helps that during most practices he will hardly be doing anything. Clearly, he is so valuable that they don't want to risk any injuries. So expect Tebow to put up big fantasy points in that category with a very low injury risk.

While most elite quarterbacks complete near 65% of passes, Tebow chooses to let his hover around the 50% mark to even the playing field. But Belichick was reported to have said that he won't let Tebow be held back this season. So as a result, I expect somewhere around an 82% completion percentage and 6,000 yards.

Previously unquestioned number one pick Adrian Peterson made a thoroughly impressive comeback last season. Meanwhile, Tebow chose to sit out this past season to recharge. He took a job coaching the bench players of the New York Jets. Unfortunately, a butt fumble kept them out of the New York high school divisional playoffs. With a full recharge, Tebow is reportedly even more ripped and ready to run. With a basement of Eric Dickerson's best season and a ceiling of 3,000 rushing yards, Tebow will no doubt be a top two pick.

Tebow may also line up at tight end some plays according to Belichick. While it's unfortunate that it brings Brady back onto the field, it will allow Tebow to be the most complete triple threat player in the league. Expect 25-50 catches to go along with his 3,000 rushing yards and 6,000 passing yards.

So all in all, Tebow should put up somewhere between 800-1000 fantasy points. That will effectively double Brady's output last season. And Tim Tebow will finally get the appropriate amount of attention from ESPN he deserves. Thank God.



Hope you guys enjoyed this analysis on the most polarizing back-up quarterback in the NFL. Here's a challenge I have for a brave soul: Draft Tebow in the first round and find a way to win. If you do, just think of the bragging rights you will have earned. Whenever you see friends from the league, just the mention of Tim Tebow's name should be enough to bring them to tears. Is anybody up for it? Do you have the guts?

2013 Running Back Tiers and Consistencies

Welcome back, old school fantasy football days. The rave of quarterbacks in the first round is (or should be) over. Back are the days of a first round that should consist of all running backs and maybe one or two wide receivers. As you've read in my previous articles, the quarterback pool is deeper than JaMarcus Russell's previous gut. R.I.P Russell's belly. So running backs are the way to go and it is a necessity to draft if not one, but two or three in the first four rounds this year.

Not only is there a ridiculously deep quarterback class but the wide receiver pool is just as deep too. Greg Jennings and Cecil Shorts ranked 29th and 30th? Gimme dat value! So while you can wait for your quarterback and wide receivers, stock up on running backs this year. After the top ten to twelve running backs, it is an absolute crap shoot. How's a running back who has never played more than 13 games in a season sound? Or a guy who once ran for 2,000 yards and has yet to come anywhere close since? Or a man who held out then was injured for most of last season? Trust me, it's not good. Just ask the guy who ended up with Vick Ballard and Eddie Lacy as his starters in my first mock draft. I still cringe thinking of that.

So get your running backs. Get five or six of them and pray that two of them will turn out alright. Remember, the gap between the 1st running back and the 20th is typically around 200 points. The difference between the 1st and 10th quarterback was 74 points. The difference between the 1st and 20th wide receiver was 89 last year. Do the math. You can miss out on elite wide receivers and still be alright. You can get Tony Romo in the 10th round and be just fine. But if you wait on a running back, you might just have Ballard and Lacy. Don't wait. At last, here are the 2013 tiers.

Tier 1: The Elite

1. Adrian Peterson (ADP 1.2)

2. Arian Foster (ADP 2.4)

This is the most straight forward you can get. If you pick first or second, you will get either Peterson or Foster. And while the odds are against Peterson to replicate last season, both are clearly above the rest.

Who I want the most: Peterson. Not even a question. He really could be his own tier.

Tier 2: The Near Elite

3. Marshawn Lynch (ADP 4.0)

4. Doug Martin (ADP 5.5)

5. Ray Rice (ADP 5.5)

Lynch has proven himself over the past two seasons, Rice over the past four, and Martin, as I predicted, killed it last year. None of them have to worry about a running back committee (although Bernard Pierce will get his fair share) and all should remain top five options. No matter which one you pick, just know that they, Beast Mode, Muscle Hamster, and Little Ray boast some of the better nicknames.

Who I want the most: If you are going for year in and year out consistency then Rice is your guy. But Marshawn Lynch is second in rushing yards and third in touchdowns over the past two seasons. He should be your guy here. Seattle is committed to running the ball and Lynch will remain the center of their offense. The Muscle Hamster's stats are a bit skewed by his two monstrous games and Rice may have just enough carries taken away that Lynch should outshine them both this season.

Tier 3: The Rock Solid

6. Jamal Charles (ADP 7.1)

7. C.J. Spiller (ADP (9.3)

8. LeSean McCoy (ADP 12.7)

The rock solid backs here might just be the speediest backs in the game. Charles will get a boost with Andy Reid as his new head coach and a stable quarterback in Alex Smith. And Spiller, despite limited touches, had over 1,700 total yards and a ridiculous 6.0 yards per carry. With Fred Jackson often injured, Spiller is finally the main main in Buffalo and will get plenty of touches this year. I have McCoy higher than most people but think he is bound for a comeback season. After injuries and Andy Reid not feeding him the ball enough, McCoy can only get better. The Eagles drafted Lane Johnson to bolster and accommodate a fast paced offense. So behind Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense and a revamped line, McCoy should be able to return to his 2011 form.

Who I want the most: This is a tough on but I'll take Charles. Charles is still the most proven and has just as much explosiveness as the other guys here. And imagine what having a real NFL quarterback will do for Charles. I am expecting big things this season.

Tier 4: The Borderline 1's

9. Trent Richardson (ADP 9.9)

10. Steven Jackson (ADP 16.8)

11. Alfred Morris (ADP 10.6)

12. Stevan Ridley (ADP 20.8)

Richardson has the most upside here but is the most injured of the bunch. Jackson has been a rock with eight consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. Despite his age, he should be an upgrade over Michael Turner and he brings his pass-catching ability to the Falcon's passing attack. Morris surprised just about everyone as coach Mike Shanahan finally chose just one guy to carry the rock. But will he do it again? Ridley figures to be featured more with the New England offense that has lost Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and possibly Rob Gronkowski. Expect Ridley to be relied on in New England. And over the past three seasons, New England has the most rushes inside the 10 yard line. Get it, Ridley.

Who I want the most: Do I dare say Steven Jackson? He's still a workhorse and does not have as many question marks as the others. But Richardson is the obvious stud here. If the Browns vertical passing scheme really takes hold, expect Richardson to have plenty of room to run. But fantasy football is about minimizing your risk while still getting productivity. So I'll take Jackson.

Tier 5: The Question Marks

13. Matt Forte (ADP 18.9)

14. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP 26.8)

15. Frank Gore (ADP 23.4)

All these guys have great track records. But the future for all of them is up in the air. Forte, while solid when healthy, has missed six games in the past two seasons. Jones-Drew's holdout and injured season raises many questions marks. Fortunately, he is still just 27 and is in a contract year. And Frank Gore is getting more and more limited in carries (just five games with 20+ carries). He also has a crowded backfield in San Francisco. 

Who I want the most: As a Packers fan it pains me to say Matt Forte. Gore has held steady but is due for more of a decline and MJD is just so uncertain at the point. Forte and the Bears' steadily improving offense should provide plenty of fantasy points.

Tier 6: The Oh Boy I Have to Take One of These Guys?

16. Chris Johnson (ADP 24.6)

17. Darren McFadden (ADP 35.8)

18. DeMarco Murray (ADP 42.2)

19. Darren Sproles(ADP 44.2)

20. Reggie Bush (ADP 46.6)

Questions marks all over the place. Can CJ2K regain his 2,000 yard season form? Can McFadden last more than 13 games? Can Murray stay on the field? Will Sproles get enough touches in the crowded Saints backfield? Can Bush put up a quality season in Detroit?

Who I want the most: Can I say none? If it's a PPR league, it's obviously Sproles. If it's a standard league, well... The Raiders, whose zone blocking scheme did not fit McFadden, are switching back to a favorable power run scheme. Bush could shine but also disappears often. And the odds of Murray staying healthy are slim. So I'll take my chances on McFadden. Just know that none of these options are safe. None of them.

Tier 7: Can We Just Draft a Quarterback Now?

21. Le'Veon Bell (ADP 66.3)

22. David Wilson (ADP 37.3)

23. Montee Ball (ADP 40.1)

24. Lamar Miller (ADP 59.8)

25. Chris Ivory (ADP 57.7)

Two rookies, two second year players, and a guy with 256 career carries. At least Ball and Bell figure to be the main guys on their teams. Wilson and Miller even have the chance to be the unquestioned starter. So maybe it is not that bad. Wilson has Spiller-like potential, Ball will take over for long-gone Willis McGahee and injury-prone Knowshon Moreno, and Bell figures to replace the horrid combo of Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer. And Ivory has a chance to bring his career 5.1 yards per carry average (on just 256 carries) to the pitiful New York Jets.

Who I want the most: I'll take Bell. He will be good value by the time you pick him and could put up Rashard Mendenhall hay day numbers.

Tier 8: Dear God, We're Still Going

26. Ryan Mathews (ADP 61.6)

27. Benjarvus Green-Ellis (ADP 70.9)

28. Eddie Lacy (ADP 56.5)

29. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP 72.0)

30. Shane Vereen (ADP 86.7)

Bonus. Tim Tebow

Mathews has been a major disappointment with more broken collarbones than touchdowns last year. BGE is a slow, non-feature back and has competition with rookie Gio Bernard. Lacy could gather lots of touchdowns but is in a crowded backfield with Alex Green, DuJuan Harris, and Jonathan Franklin all in the picture. Bradshaw has Vick Ballrd and injuries to deal with. And Vereen should at least be relevant as he should take Danny Woodhead's touches.

Who I want the most: Mathews still has the highest upside here. But if Lacy wins the starting job outright, I'll take him. He could compile many of Aaron Rodger's short touchdown runs and passes and even John Kuhn's touchdowns. Lacy may not quite run for 1,000 yards, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 10 touchdowns. Just take that with a grain of salt as that number could also be 0. And you can't go wrong with Tebow. I hear the Canadian Football League has started online fantasy leagues. Oh wait, the Patriots signed him?

So there you have it. Have fun and get the aspirin ready for your running back situations. To help you out some more, here's a nice chart I made of the top running backs. It's pretty self explanatory but lets you see their consistency and ceiling based on last year's stats.

Name	Double Digit Games	20+ games
Adrian Peterson	13	8
Arian Foster	14	4
Marshawn Lynch	11	4
Doug Martin	12	3
Ray Rice	11	4
Jamal Charles	9	3
CJ Spiller	12	2
LeSean McCoy	10/12 (4 injured)	0
Trent Richardson	11/15 (1 injured)	1
Steven Jackson	7	0
Alfred Morris	12	3
Stevan Ridley	9	2
Matt Forte	9/15 (1 injured)	1
Maurice Jones-Drew	2/6 (9 injured)	1
Frank Gore	11	0
Chris Johnson	9	1
Darren McFadden	6/12 (4 injured)	0
DeMarco Murray	5/10 (6 injured)	0
Darren Sproles	9/13 (3 injured)	0
Chris Ivory	2/6 (10 no carries)	0
Reggie Bush	7	2
David Wilson	2/3 (with 10+ carries)	1
Montee Ball	N/A	N/A
Lamar Miller	1/2 (with 10 carries)	0
Le'Veon Bell	N/A	N/A
Ryan Mathews	1/12 (4 injured)	0
Benjarvus Green-Ellis	7/15 (1 DNP)	0
Eddie Lacy	N/A	N/A
Ahmad Bradshaw	7/15 (1 injured)	2
Shane Vereen	2/2 (with 10+ carries)	0
Tim Tebow	0	0

2013 Quarterback Tiers

Tiers tiers tiers. Of the past ten years I've been playing fantasy football, this could be the least useful year for quarterback tiers. Why you say? Because you could clump them up into a tier of twelve and say boom. There's a tier. As I've said before, the quarterback class is so deep that you can wait till the seventh round to draft one and be set. To get a more general overview of the quarterbacks this year, check out my previous article.

But that doesn't mean this is a complete waste of time. Knowing about what rounds you should target the different tiers and also figuring out your preferences among each tier is key. Also, doing mock drafts and knowing each player's average draft position is vital to getting the players you want. For this, the rounds I place each tier is where they should be drafted. The average draft position is based on ESPN drafts and is where they are being drafted (keep in mind it will vary from website to website and that needs to factor in to your draft).

Rounds 2-3: The Super Elite

1. Aaron Rodgers (ADP 9.9)

2. Drew Brees (ADP 14.3)

This is pretty straightforward. Since 2009, these guys have finished right next to each other at 1st and 2nd three times. And since 2009, neither has finished outside the top six quarterbacks. They are benchmarks for consistency and durability. You cannot go wrong with either of them. But no, I would not take either in the first round. Not this year folks.

Who I want the most: Who do you think? I want my boy the all-time passer rating leader. But actually, I'd prefer Brees here. You can get Brees slightly later than Rodgers (ADP 9.9 vs 14.3) and simply put, some fool is probably going to take Rodgers in the first anyway. Yet the biggest reasons I have for Brees is that Sean Payton is back and the possible emergence of a running game in Green Bay. We all know the chemistry Brees has with Payton and I expected the duo to replicate and improve upon last season. And with offensive line changes and high potential running backs in Green Bay, I expect Rodgers' yardage and touchdowns to be cut in to. I especially expect declines in Rodgers' own rushing stats in which he has averaged 279 yards and 3.6 touchdowns per season. While those aren't great by any means, they are usually what put him over the top of Brees and Tom Brady.

Rounds 3-5: The Elite

3. Peyton Manning (ADP 21.6)

4. Tom Brady (ADP 18.7)

5. Cam Newton (ADP 29.3)

First off, let me remind you that in a typical league, there's no way you'll get any of these guys in the fifth. But, you should be able to. People just don't get it. In the first ESPN experts mock draft, Brady and Manning went in the fourth while Newton went in the fifth. I highly doubt the people you play with will be that smart and patient. Nonetheless, as I said, wait, and reap the benefits.

As you can see, there are still no question marks in this deep quarterback class. Cam has ended any doubt that he could be the same QB he was as a rookie, Manning is back to full health and robot-like precision, and Brady is still Brady. I would take Manning over Brady simply because of all years where we've seen Brady's options, this could be the worst. With virtually no receivers besides the still unproven Danny Amendola, Brady will lean heavily on Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, both of whom have had their fair share of injuries (and in Hernandez's case, an arrest warrant).

Who I want the most: Despite the addition of Wes Welker in Denever, I'll actually take Cam here. While I do think Manning will have the better season, I don't think it will be that much better than Cam's. I mainly prefer Cam here because of the draft value and hopes to get him (realistically) in the fourth. As for Brady, just remember that he is still Brady. No matter who his receivers are, you can expect Brady to be Brady. Did I say that enough? Brady will be Brady. 

Rounds 4-7: The Up and Coming

6. Robert Griffin III (ADP 56.5) (Pending injury updates)

7. Matt Ryan (ADP 41.3)

8. Colin Kaepernick (ADP 43.7)

9. Russell Wilson (ADP 49.9)

A tier with three running sons of guns. But hear this folks, whether or not the read option sticks, they are changing the way the game is being played right now. Matt Ryan here is the only truly proven one here, but that doesn't mean I would trust the other three any less. But those three guys are the only ones I would even consider drafting a backup for. Because they run so much and are thus vulnerable to injuries, a backup could be worth it. But if you take anyone besides RGIII, Kaepernick, or Wilson please, please do not draft a backup. You don't need one.

Who I want the most: Matt Ryan. Tony Gonzalez is back and the addition of Steven Jackson gives the Falcons a running back who will play a role in their passing attack. Ryan finished seventh among QB's last year and has a chance to finally crack the top five this year. I trust him most of those not in the top five and expect big things as the Falcons are once again loaded in weapons.

Rounds 7-10: The Value Starters

10. Matt Stafford (ADP 64.4)

11. Tony Romo (ADP 80.5)

12. Andrew Luck (ADP 71.0)

These are the guys I'm targeting. They finished 11th, 9th, and 8th respectively and all are in a position to improve on that. You cannot go wrong with any of these and drafting one as your starter and it will allow you to have the stock up and running backs (and wide receivers). 

And for those of you who are thinking you might want to take one as your backup before I get my starter? Think again. Remember how last year worked when THREE people took backups before I got my eventual starting quarterback? Yeah, take a look at my championship belt why don't you. And do you really want to waste a roster spot on a quarterback who will never start over a top five QB? Or just give you headaches about which of your two QB's you want to start? And I have asked enough leading questions to make you never even ponder this decision again?

Who I want the most: Matt Stafford. Despite struggles last year, he still put together a solid season. While it was a far cry from his 2011 breakout campaign, I expect him to rebound. While he may not throw over 700 times this year, the additions of Reggie Bush and a slightly improved line can only help. And he's still got that guy Calvin Johnson. That helps too. And you can't go wrong with Romo either. Just because he can't win big games does not mean he is not a good fantasy option.

Rounds 11-16: The Rest

13. Eli Manning (ADP 92.9)

14. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 104.7)

15. Michael Vick (ADP 119.5)

16. Joe Flacco (ADP 112.9)

17. Philip Rivers (ADP 137.0)

18. Andy Dalton (ADP 131.0)

19. Sam Bradford (ADP 133.0)

20. Jay Cutler (ADP 137.4)

21. Matt Schaub (ADP 127.5)

22. Alex Smith (ADP 145.1)

23. Josh Freeman (ADP 136.7)

24. Carson Palmer (ADP 139.8)

25. Ryan Tannehill (ADP 145.1)

105. Tim Tebow (ADP N/A)

106. JaMarcus Russell (ADP N/A)

Time be blunt. None of the guys outside the top fifteen should be drafted. Don't waste a roster spot for a guy who won't be used. So. Pick up Eli for bye weeks. Keep a close eye on Vick in Kelly's new offense. Monitor Rivers to see if he can regain old form. And if he performs like he did with gloves on, perhaps he will. Monitor Palmer solely for his impact on Larry Fitzgerald. Watch Big Ben and Flacco. Watch Cutler to see what a grown baby looks like. Watch Tim Tebow warm up seats for Brady. And watch to see if JaMarcus can regain his eating form. It looks like he took some time off from that. And use the all of them as very solid bye week replacements. Boom.

Draft Prep: Sleepers

Your sleeper picks. They can make or break your team. Instead of taking a more common name like John Kuhn, Matt Cassell, or Nate Burleson, take someone like Isaiah Pead, Antonio Brown, or Jared Cook. People who took a chance on Aaron Rodgers in his first season as a starter had to be pretty darn happy. And people who took Rob Gronkowski or Cam Newton last year, well, they likely earned themselves a playoff spot. And I won't be making any JaMarcus Russell jokes in this because after all, he has been in a deep sleep, or maybe a hibernation since 2009. Heck, he probably slept from 2007 to 2009 too. That would explain a lot.

But anyways, do your research. Target your guys who will be late rounders. Find those backups to the often injured players and take a chance on them. It will be the difference between a five win season and a eight win season. Here are my sleepers for the 2012 season.

Doug Martin (RB, TB, 78.8): Martin represents a great value pick with an opportunity to shatter expectations. It looks like he is winning the running back battle over LeGarrette Blount and his explosiveness is killer. At this point, he should be receiving the majority of carries as Blount slowly disappears. Blount will most likely get goaline carries, but that doesn't detract from Martin's potential to be one the better rookie running backs in recent years. He is definitely worth a pick after the 6th round.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis (RB, CIN, 59.1): Goodbye Cedric Benson. Hello Cedric Benson 2.0. Green-Ellis, who has scored 24 touchdowns in the past two seasons, is the man I want in all my leagues. Now as the featured back in Cincinnati, you can expect numbers on par with Benson, but hopefully more similar to those of former Rudi Johnson. BGE has yet to fumble in his NFL career and he has a knack for the endzone. According to Matthew Berry, since Marvin Lewis became head coach in 2003, the Bengals running backs have averaged 1,124 yards and 8 touchdowns a season. BGE fits the mold of a Lewis running back and if he puts up those average numbers, well you got yourself a very solid, high-end number 2 running back.

Donald Brown (RB, IND, 100.8): He will get carries. He should be the starter. He just plays on last years most abysmal offense. He also is far from proven but now is his shot. He showed off his explosiveness toward the end of last season and is in a position where he can succeed. If Andrew Luck and the Colts' offense puts it together, Brown will be a major component of it.

Mikel Leshoure (RB, DET, 145.2): Injured his entire rookie season, Leshoure can make a splash if often injured Jahvid Best or Kevin Smith go down. And if, or when they do, Leshore may live up to his high potential out of the University of Illinois.

Isaiah Pead (RB, STL, 166.8): Steven Jackson is slowing down and Pead is coming up. While I think Jackson will still be the man all season, Pead will get some carries and spell Jackson. He also has great hands and will be involved with their passing game.

Evan Royster (RB, WSH, Not Drafted): Like I've said before, I don't want to touch the Washington running backs. Royster ended last year with two stellar 100 yard games but still has Roy Helu ahead of him. Probably. Maybe. Who knows? Only Mike Shanahan. If anything happens to Helu, then it will be time to jump on the Royster train.

Eric Decker (WR, DEN, 72.1): I love this guy just a little bit more than Demaryius Thomas. For one, he is more accustomed to an NFL style offense than Thomas and he runs much better, crisper routes. In an offense with Peyton Manning, that means a lot. Decker has HUGE upside with Manning throwing and he could be a monster in PPR leagues. I'd take Decker over Thomas, and other iffy receivers like Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson, and DeSean Jackson.

Antonio Brown (WR, PIT, 70.4): Also being drafted around Decker, Brown had a superb, under the radar season. He had the second most third down catches last year which means Big Ben looked to him regularly in the clutch. He also had 69 catches and 1,108 yards. Talk about a season no one talked about. With Mike Wallace looking iffier, Brown could actually end up being Roethlisberger's top target (In fact, he had more targets than Wallace last season.) For his draft position, Brown will be a steal and a very solid number 2 receiver.

Reggie Wayne (WR, IND, 105.6): Reggie Wayne is no longer the top-10 Wayne we've seen for years. But with Andrew Luck throwing his way, Wayne can hopefully still produce. Even if Luck doesn't meet expectations, he cannot be much worse than Curtis Painter or Dan Orlovsky. Right? Wayne has lost a step but do not count him out yet. For the record, I'd much rather have him then Michael Crabtree, Justin Blackmon, or Randy Moss. Which also isn't saying much...

Greg Little (WR, CLE, 148.8): Little had over 60 catches for 700 yards last year but only found the endzone twice. With "rookie" Brandon Weeden throwing his way, his numbers should improve slightly. He is the most NFL-looking receiver on their team and could quietly produce a solid season. And if Weeden blows people out of the water, then Little will have lots to do with it.

Randall Cobb (WR, GB, 154.5): Cobb is buried in the depth chart of the most fearsome wide receiver corps of the NFL. But he is expected to have an expanded role as Donald Driver's role diminishes. Cobb shows every sign of an elite playmaker and could find himself as the undisputed number three receiver in Green Bay. And with Aaron Rodgers throwing, that makes for a still pretty solid fantasy receiver.

Vincent Brown (WR, SD, Not Drafted): In his four starts last year, Brown showed flashes of potential and great route running. Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd are by no means durable players and Brown could find himself as one of Rivers' steady targets. You won't likely have to use a draft pick on him so monitor him early and jump on him.

Jacob Tamme (TE, DEN, 114.3): While cleaning my room, I stumbled upon a Jacob Tamme game worn jersey card from Kentucky. Thrilled at my find, I remember how enamored I was with a tight end no kid in Illinois should have ever heard about. But with Tamme teaming up with Manning in Denver, there is great potential for a solid season. Remember when Dallas Clark got injured and Tamme took over? Now Tamme and Manning have time to gel and work together all season. I expect a top 8 season this year.

Fred Davis (TE, WSH, 103.9): With RGIII throwing his way, Davis might finally break out. Chris Cooley is almost completely out of the mix and it is Davis' time to shine. He started to have a breakout season last year till he was suspended the remainder of the season for marijuana charges. This year, take a shot on him as he may even outproduce Jermichael Finley.

Jared Cook (TE, TEN, 127.3): You know how Finley is supposed to be some freak athlete? Well, let's compare his combine numbers to Cook. Finley had a 4.82 40 time and a 27.5 vertical. Cook had a 4.49 time and a 41.0 vertical! Finley looks like a child compared to Cook. If either Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker produce, Cook will be in for a stellar season.

Jermaine Gresham (TE, CIN, 144.7): This is a surprisingly deep year for tight ends eh? Last year, Gresham had 56 catches for nearly 600 yards and 6 touchdowns. As he continues to click with Dalton, Gresham should only get better.



Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT, ADP 81.2): Not that Big Ben is unknown to many, but this could be a year we he solidly plays himself into the top 10. Last year he was 13th among quarterbacks and this year he is a borderline 12 team league starter. But with Rashard Mendenhall expected to miss most, if not all of the season, expect Ben to passing more. Assuming Mike Wallace mans up and comes back, Ben will have him, emerging Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders to throw to. Expect Big Ben to sneak into the top 10 this year for quarterbacks.

Michael Vick (QB, PHI, 31.9): Is he really even a sleeper? Well, kind of. After last years fall from fantasy domination, Vick is being a bit undervalued this year. Despite missing three whole games last year, Vick still finished 11th among quarterbacks and had seven 20 point games. And while no one expected him to replicate his 9 rushing touchdowns of 2010, no one expected him to have just 1 either. So expect an increase of rushing touchdowns and hopefully and injury free season. Last year, I said Vick was not worthy of the number one pick Matthew Berry hyped him to be, but this year, he is clearly worth his draft value.

Tim Tebow (QB, NYJ, 137.6): Not too many backup quarterbacks are the 22nd quarterback taken in drafts. But Tebow does have a real shot at eventually taking the starting job in New York. And that's not a credit to Tebow's passing skills, but his running ability, and Mark Sanchez's mediocrity. Tebow is the only NFL quarterback to run for 6 touchdowns in consecutive seasons and has no reason not to do it again. We saw Tebow be a productive fantasy player last year with 15 points or more in 8 of his 12 games. Will we see some more Tebow time this year?

Draft Prep: Players to Avoid

Avoid these players. Whether it's for injury concerns, fluke seasons, or being drafted too high, I would recommend a rethink if you are wanting to draft any of these guys.

As 1 Thessalonians 5:22 says, "Avoid every kind of evil". While these players are not evil by any means, the things they may do to your team may seem evil. And while you are at it, avoid using Bible verses out of context. Psh, I mean, who does that? But seriously, those who use individual verses to prove points miss the context and point of passages. In order to not do that, it helps to use the ladder of abstraction, which helps us find an underlying universal principal in context. For instance, when there is foot washing in the Bible, it is not proper to extrapolate and say that we, in today's culture, need to wash our neighbors' feet. Instead, we see how foot washing was a way to keep your house clean. We also can take away the theme of serving one another with humility and being hospitable.

Um, well, how does this connect at all? It does not really. But for those who find research saying that  Eric Dickerson tanked after a 380 plus carry season does not necessarily mean that Maurice Jones-Drew cannot handle it. Times are different. Athletes are built differently. In short, the game has changed. So when it comes to finding research about current situations, like Adrian Peterson's torn ACL, it can be good to look into the past for reference. Just do not hold it as truth for what will happen next.

So. Back to the actual point of this article. Here are players you should avoid on draft day.

Peyton Manning (QB, DEN, ADP 42.1): For a career filled with twice as many indoor games as outdoor games, Manning now faces 15 outdoor games this year. His outdoor numbers, while not terrible, do in fact drop significantly from his indoor numbers. That plus his age, his neck, and a brand new team makes me want to avoid Manning this year. While being the eight quarterback selected sounds like a bargain, there are much better, surefire options.

Eli Manning (QB, NYG, ADP 31.9): Both Mannings make this list as this year Eli is actually being overvalued. While he did produce a stellar 5,000 yard season last year, he still was one of the more inconsistent quarterbacks. He had six games with under 15 points and finished the year with only 29 touchdowns. Good, but not great. Of the eight other quarterbacks to ever throw for 5,000 yards in a season, they averaged 41 touchdowns. So the question: where were Manning's?

Matt Stafford (QB, DET, ADP 13.0): For a guy going borderline first round, I do not want to touch him. No doubt he has the talent to be a top five quarterback. And he has Calvin Johnson. But, he has played only one full season in his career, has a poor offensive line, and little running game. Do I want to pick a player in the first round based on one great season? Nope.

JaMarcus Russell (QB, Biggest Losers, ADP (average donuts per day) 12): Avoid him. He may just eat you, too.

Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 25.5): The thing about McFadden is that he is one the best fantasy running backs out there. The other thing is that he can rarely stay on the field. If you are feeling dicey, then McFadden could be one of the biggest steals this year. He is the epitome of a high risk, high reward player.

Frank Gore (RB, SF, 35.2): No longer viewed as a number one running back, owners should see Gore as a solid number two. Gore finally lasted a full season, but saw his workload decrease as the season went on. That said, he now has Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James, and Kendall Hunter all in the mix to steal carries. Don't be surprised if there is another decline in Gore's carries and productivity.

Roy Helu (RB, WSH, 52.6): I love this guy. He showed immense potential in his rookie campaign by compiling over 1,000 all-purpose yards to go along with 49 catches. In PPR leagues, he will be a great option. But anytime Mike Shanahan is your coach, we actually have no idea who will get the bulk of carries. For all I know, Terrell David could come out of retirement and Shanahan will give him the carries. Any Redskins' running back is risky, although Helu hopes to break the Shanahan curse and be the go-to guy.

Willis McGahee (RB, DEN, 54.3): Remember Joseph Addai in the high powered Colts' offense. Remember his incredible numbers? . . . Oh, wait. Well, McGahee, who turns 31 this year, could end up a replica of Addai, only worse. McGahee does not catch well and is poor in pass protection, which means he may not do too much this year with Manning. Before you think McGahee will ride on coattails of last year, think again.

Calvin Johnson (WR, DET, 6.8): Madden curse? Is it true? Does it affect a robot? Who knows? Other than the curse, there are no actual viable concerns for this beast of a player.

Mike Wallace (WR, PIT, 26.5): This man is still holding out. So watch out come draft day. Wallace did very little toward the end of last season and Antonio Brown emerged as a favorite of Ben Roethlisberger. In Wallace's last 9 games, he scored double digits just TWICE! For the consensus top eight wide receiver, he is one to be drafted with caution. He still has lights out potential, but has a moderately high risk component.

Vincent Jackson (WR, TB, 53.8): He has never caught more than 68 passes in a season. Or double digit touchdowns. Or 1,200 yards. A guy that always seems slightly overrated, Jackson now leaves his comfort of Philip Rivers and goes to run-heavy, Josh Freeman led Tampa Bay. Things do not look good, my friends.

Victor Cruz (WR, NYG, 31.8): This is more based on draft position than on talent or production. Cruz has the ability to replicate last year's numbers. But he almost surely will not. He scored on touchdowns last year of 68, 72, 74, 74, and 99 yards. Think he can do that again? I like Cruz and think he can still produce like a top 20 receiver, just not the top 10 where he is currently being drafted.

Andre Johnson (WR, HOU, 14.3): Yup, you read it right. For a guy who has failed to stay healthy the past two seasons, I cannot advise taking him so high this year. He has played just 20 games the past two years and while he has been productive, he has been a headache to deal with. And now Houston has become a run first team, meaning Johnson will have less chances to produce like he once did. I am not saying that Johnson is done by any means, I am just saying he is no longer the Andre we knew and used to draft first of wide receivers.

Vernon Davis (TE, SF, 52.5): He's a great talent hurt by his quarterback Alex Smith. While Smith is by no means a bad quarterback, Davis just does not get the same chances that a Jimmy Graham or even a Jason Witten get. Davis was very inconsistent last year and that is due to him getting mainly underneath throws from Smith. If Smith can air it out more, perhaps Davis will return to the top five. Till further notice, he is just a solid top 10 option.

Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, 67.0): At least he is not being drafted as early as Davis, but Finley was perhaps the most inconsistent of all fantasy players. He was plagued by drops and had only four double digit games. He has ridiculous potential, but still has not reached it.

Stephen Gostowski (K, NE, 110.1): WHY ON EARTH DO PEOPLE PICK KICKERS THIS EARLY? Wait till the LAST ROUND, close your eyes and point at the screen. There, you have your kicker! Last year, if you removed David Akers' season, there was only a 15 point difference between the 1st and 10th kicker! Even with Akers, it was still only 49 points.

Players that I L.O.V.E

       Love is a powerful word. Love is what holds the world together. Love conquers all. It's a love story baby just say yeah.
       Every year, there are players that for some reason or another, I absolutely love and will target in nearly every draft. The hardest part about loving players in fantasy is to not reach on them. And then there's the grey area of picking players from your favorite team that you love. No doubt, it can make your season that much more fun. Unless you're a Cincinnati Bengals fan.
       So for every draft, it is a good idea to have a list of players that you absolutely love. These can be picks that you think will be bargains, gut feeling break out players, or players whose point per game difference (at their respective position) is greatest (Michael Vick and Antonio Gates). Whoever your "love" players are, it is best to avoid unnatural love. Like love for players with awesome names. Anyone remember Tim Biakabutuka? Or Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala? Or the current T.J. Houshmandzadeh, now known to many as T.J. Who's Your Mama. Despite awesome names, clearly guys like these shouldn't be among your loved fantasy players. You get the picture.
       But there are many things I love in this world. Football, duh. Ultimate Frisbee. Taylor Swift. Chocolate apple juice. Jesus (he's the one I love the most and the reason I live life the way I do). The Packers.
       Anyways, here are some players that I love and think you should too.

       Shonn Greene (RB, NYJ, ADP 61): Last year, Greene was way overvalued. This year, he is far too undervalued. Experts were calling for his breakout season last year when LaDanian Tomlinson spoiled hopes of that. But now, Shonn Greene should take off and produce like many thought he would last year. LT's role will be much more limited and Greene will be a force. Draft him. For his draft value, you won't regret it.

       Ahmad Bradshaw (RB, NYG, ADP 35): For someone who put quietly put up 1,500 total yards and 8 touchdowns, he is a great value being selected as the 16th running back. I expect more of the same from him and think he will outperform the likes of DeAngelo Williams, Darren McFadden, and LeGarrett Blount. And maybe more.

       Matthew Stafford (QB, DET, ADP 109): If only Stafford could stay healthy, he may be a top 10 quarterback. Unfortunately, he has only played in 13 of 32 possible games. But Detroit has loads of talent including this guy by the name of Calvin Johnson. Maybe you heard of him. He and Stafford have great chemistry and Megatron will see his value boosted if Stafford stays healthy. Now Stafford is not one that I would neccessarily draft, but he will be a great addition in deeper leagues and for those who miss on one of the elite quarterbacks.

       Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI, ADP 22): This a bit of an obvious one, but I think Fitzgerald will make a return to the top 5 thanks to Kevin Kolb. Considering what Fitzgerald did last year with three mediocre quarterbacks, I think Fitzgerald should now be drafted in the top 5 over Greg Jennings. Kolb may not live up to they hype, but that doesn't mean that Fitzy won't benefit. He will. And if Kolb does bust, it can't be much worse than Derek Anderson or Max Hall. Right?

       Neil Rackers (K, HOU, ADP 121): Ha, just kidding. You know how I feel about kickers.

       Wes Welker (WR, NE, ADP 57): Welker's knee appears to be fine and I think Welker will make a return to triple digit receptions this season. While Chad Ochocinco won't stretch the defense quite like Randy Moss did, I think Welker will be able to benefit nonetheless. He will once again be a monster in PPR leagues and should be in line for a solid season. He is currently being drafted as the 19th receiver, but will perform more in the 10th to 15th range.

       Philip Rivers (QB, SD, ADP 24): Why do I mind not getting Aaron Rodgers as my quarterback? It's because of this guy right here. Three consecutive 4,000 yards seasons with 28 plus TD passes and Rivers is not far behind. He is being drafted much later allowing you to get an elite running back or wide receiver. I will take Rivers and Ray Rice any day over Rodgers and Cedric Benson.

       Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, ADP 56): Hopefully this isn't a love due to my allegiance to the Super Bowl champs. However, Finley is absolutely loaded with talent and if he can finally stay healthy, who knows what kind of numbers we may see. And if he gets hurt, so what? There are plenty of other tight ends who won't be very different from the 6th to 15th ranked ones. You may miss out on a value pick, but I see Finley putting together a season to remember. If you don't believe me, watch this.

       Shawn Johnson: You are my soul mate and will always have a place in my heart. Love, Nate.

       Matt Forte (CHI, RB, ADP 29): Another PPR stud, Forte has put up solid numbers his whole career and is still a bit on the undervalued side. He should get you 1,500 total yards and will get his share of touchdowns.

       Jahvid Best (DET, RB, ADP 47): Best is another running back that I can see breaking out and he will be a stud in PPR leagues. With Mikel Leshore done for the season, Best and his Charles-like potential will be in for a fun ride.

       Austin Collie (IND, WR, ADP 75): Collie was on path to a monstrous season last year when multiple concussions derailed his hopes. For someone being drafted behind Chad Ochocinco, I don't see how you can go wrong. He has evident low end number 1 potential and can be drafted as your third, maybe even fourth receiver. He is definitely worth a chance and can bolster any lineup. Think of his stats like Vick's from last year projected over a full season. Ridiculous. 103 catches, 1153 yards, and 14 touchdowns. And that's including the game where he was re-injured.

       Ryan Grant (RB, GB, ADP 55): Another running back makes my love list and in the form of another Super Bowl champ. He missed basically all of last year but appears to be at full strength this year. Despite competition from James Starks, Grant will be the go-to-guy and can pick up where he left off in 2009. He won't be a number 1 back, but can definitely put up 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns, making him a very solid mid-round pick.

       Plaxico Burress (WR, NYJ, ADP 103): Plaxico has slowly moved up the wide receiver ranks and is reaching a point where he may be drafted too high. He is as far away from a surefire pick as you can be and may end up doing absolutely nothing. But, I think he is a worthy pick in the late rounds because he has huge potential. Despite obvious concerns, you will be mad is you didn't use your 15th rounder on him and he goes on to have a productive year. He is replacing Braylon Edwards and has the size to still be effective. Let's just hope he doesn't shoot himself in the foot or anything with the second chance.

       Tim Tebow (QB, DEN, undrafted): I just love the man. Clearly, most of his sleeper value is gone. But, that doesn't mean I can't love a man who cares about the game, people, and Jesus. I think any hate directed at him is unwarranted and unnecessary. But yeah, don't draft him (this year).

       LeSean McCoy (RB, PHI, ADP 11): While his rushing stats are solid, it is his receiving game that makes me love him so much. Even if Vick goes down, McCoy will get his carries and his catches. I would take him over MJD and Ray Rice, making him my fifth rated running back. In PPR leagues, he can goes as high the number 1 pick, although he will most likely be between the 2nd and 4th.

       BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, NE, ADP 52): This may be my one of my least popular love picks. Bill Belichick always seems to make life difficult when choosing New England running backs. And with two early draft picks spent on running backs, Green-Ellis may find himself limited. And while he isn't the most talented of running backs, I don't see himself faltering. Maybe this is a gut feeling, but I think BenJarvus puts together another solid season and proves his worth as a number 2 back being drafted as your 3rd or 4th.

       Mike Sims-Walker (WR, STL, ADP 132): Sims-Walker was already a low risk late pick, but now that he is almost guaranteed a roster spot, my hopes are even higher. Sam Bradford throwing to him makes him a great comeback candidate in an improving offense.

Oh, JaMarcus.

       JaMarcus Russell (Hot dog eater, IKEA couches, sleeping): I just love making fun of him. What's not to love about a former quarterback built like a lineman? He still is in possibly the funniest "yahoo answers" questions that I have ever seen, "Did JaMarcus Russell refuse to take HGH because it didn't come in a chewable bacon-flavored form?"

       Brandon Lloyd (WR, DEN, ADP 52): Now I guess he isn't one I love, but someone I really really like. Much like Green-Ellis, not many people are expecting anything close to last season. But with Kyle Orton throwing, Lloyd really blossomed and should put up serviceable numbers this season. If Denver keeps up their losing ways, they will once again be forced to throw a ton, thus enhancing Lloyd's value. If he falls in your draft like he most likely will, keep an eye on him and don't be afraid to snag him.

        Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, ATL, undrafted): Now that's a cool name.

       Miles Austin (DAL, WR, ADP 33): While Dez Bryant may actually outproduce Austin this year, I think Austin will still be a tremendous pick. With a healthy Tony Romo, both Austin and Bryant may be in for big seasons. I like Austin a bit more than Bryant as he is more of a sure bet than Bryant, but both have huge potential in a potent offense.

2011 Quarterback Sleepers

QB Sleepers:
  
       Josh Freeman: While he won’t go under the radar like he did last year, Freeman definitely has the talent to produce even better. I would not be surprised if he puts up top 10 maybe even top 7 numbers.  With his running ability and improving Bucs' offense, he could be a steal in the middle rounds.

      JaMarcus Russell:  Last year, Plaxico Burress was ranked ahead of Russell in last year’s ESPN preseason rankings.  What this means is that a man who was in jail was more likely to score more points than Russell.  I expect Russell to consume at least 100 hot dogs and 250 Wendy’s Baconators during the season, with potential to exceed our expecations.

       Kevin Kolb: With Larry Fitzgerald as his new best friend, Kolb has a chance to develop into a solid fantasy quarterback. He has shown flashes of potential but is still far from proven in limited starts. He sports a mediocre 73.2 passer rating but will have his chance to improve on that with a fresh new start. Kolb should definitely be available in the late rounds and is worth a shot as a solid backup and potential to be a low end starter.

Deeper QB Sleepers:

       Tim Tebow:  While many still question whether or not Tebow can be a capable quarterback in the NFL, I have no doubt in my mind he will.  And despite my love for the greatest college quarterback, I do not expect that to happen this season.  But Tebow has something that only Rodgers, Vick, and Freeman have: running ability.  In the three games Tebow started, he scored 22, 22, and 27 fantasy points.  He helped those few owners out who started him during the fantasy playoff weeks with very solid numbers. 51% of his fantasy points came from his rushing stats and that is why he is a decent fantasy option this season and a great late round pick. This is IF he starts.

      Ryan Fitzpatrick:  He started last year on fire and some people pegged him as a must start option. Teehee. Nope. But I do think Fitzpatrick, the Harvard grad, has some potential to come close to last year’s first half.  While I would not neccessarily draft him, I would keep tabs on him for the week 8 bye of Rodgers, Ryan, and Freeman. Fitzpatrick has an excellent matchup against Washington’s defense.

       Jason Campbell:  A quarterback who has never lived up to expectations, Campbell has a chance for a decent year with loads of speed around him.  Assuming Coach Tom Cable doesn’t randomly bench him for the incapable Bruce Gradkowski, don’t be surprised if Campbell finally puts in a good one.