Draft Prep: Rookies

Trent Richardson (RB, CLE, ADP 30.6, My draft position 40): Richardson will be the first rookie taken in the draft this year and will be the workhorse in Cleveland. He should be getting at least 20 carries a game in a Cleveland offense that should not be as terrible as recent years. And remember how Peyton Hillis had success? Well, Richardson has a chance to really shine assuming his knee problems do not take him out for too long. Richardson has looked like a beast in training camp and might be one the most hyped backs since Adrian Peterson. But with his recent surgery, I would not take Richardson until late third round or fourth.

Doug Martin (RB, TB, ADP 78.4, MDP 47): Martin has looked very explosive in camp and has already have earned himself the majority of carries over LeGarrette Blount. And for where he is being drafted, Martin has the best value of any of the rookies this year. He really has a chance to excel in the run first Tampa offense and an offense where they have lost faith in Blount. While Blount will see the goaline carries, expect Martin to make an impact everywhere else. He is moving up lots of draft boards, but I would still consider taking him as early as the fourth round.

Robert Griffin III (QB, WAS, ADP 81.7, MDP 70): Another guy moving up draft boards is none other than the immensely popular RGIII. After a phenomenal start to his preseason, RGIII looks like the real deal. Unlike Andrew Luck, Griffin has placed into a much better offense with targets like Santana Moss, Pierre Garcon, and Fred Davis. Throw in Leonard Hankerson and Roy Helu and you've got decent talent. But the hype with RGIII is really about what he can do with not only his arms, but also his legs. It would not be unwise to expect somewhere around 500 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns this season. But be careful with RGIII as all rookie quarterbacks will struggle. So have modest expectations with a high ceiling and moderately low basement.

Andrew Luck (QB, IND, ADP 125, MDP 140): Luck is the closest thing to a young Peyton Manning we have seen. But, like Manning, immediate success is far from guaranteed. The Colts' offense is still a year or two away from recovery. Luck does have Reggie Wayne, who people are acting like is dead. He's old, not dead, folks. Do not count him out completely. And he also has a two tight end system including Coby Fleener, his dependable target at Stanford. Luck is worth watching throughout the season, but is worth only a late round pick this year.

Justin Blackmon (WR, JAC, ADP 119.6, MDP 130): As talented as Blackmon is, he has put himself in a major hole this season. After holding out and missing valuable camp time, Blackmon also managed to get a DUI this July. He has not shown any pull away speed to get past coverage. And oh, he has Blaine Gabbert throwing him the ball. Gabbert, who reminds me of Sunshine from Remember the Titans, might actually be worse than Sunshine would be at his current age. Blackmon is draftable, just do not expect too much.

Reuben Randle (WR, NYG, ADP 138.5, MDP 148): He's behind Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Those are two pretty good receivers who you know will get the majority of the targets. But Randle is in a high-octane offense that loves to throw the ball. He is worth a late pick with modest potential.

Coby Fleener (TE, IND, ADP 141.4, MDP 130): His chemistry with Andrew Luck is unparalleled for a rookie tandem. Fleener will be a favorite target of Luck and actually has a decent chance to finish in the top ten. The tight end position is deep, but I would rather have Fleener than Brent Celek and Owen Daniels. He can be a nice late round pick.

Michael Floyd (WR, ARI, ADP 144.2, MDP 150): While he does get to play aside Larry Fitzgerald, there are several questions surrounding Floyd. For one, Kevin Kolb's health, and even skills, are a question mark, although it still did not stop Fitz last year. He has been slow to adjust to the game, but if he becomes the unquestioned starter opposite Fitzgerald, then look out fantasy world. But that is a fairly big if for this year. Unless his work ethic picks up, I expect a moderately low impact from his rookie season.

Kendall Wright (WR, TEN, ADP 149.2, MDP 160): There's marginal upside here with Wright. He's behind Kenny Britt and Nate Washington and should see solid time in the slot. But a rookie wide receiver who is third on the depth chart will rarely make a big fantasy impact.

Brian Quick (WR, STL, ADP 150.8, MDP 145): It seems like a long, long, long time ago since the Rams had Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Now, Quick from Appalachian State has a chance to become a favorite of Sam Bradford. If Quick can move up the depth chart, he has potential to be a solid number two fantasy receiver. Sam Bradford has not forgotten how to throw the ball and he is a good candidate for a comeback year. So look for Quick late in the draft as a solid sleeper.

Isaiah Pead (RB, STL, ADP Not drafted, MDP Not drafted): I believe Steven Jackson has one more year left in him. But Pead is up and coming and will get some carries this year. For those in dynasty leagues, Pead is a great option.

Ronnie Hillman (RB, DEN, ADP Not drafted, MDP 150): Another lesser known rookie running back, Hillman does have a chance to see significant action. I do not trust old man Willis McGahee or Knowshon Moreno and his ACL, so I like Hillman's chances to play. He is worth a late flier and has potential to be Peyton Manning's Addai.

Brandon Weeden (QB, CLE, ADP Not drafted, MDP Not drafted): The other first round quarterback presents no fantasy value this year. If you get into a situation where you are considering him, boy, do I feel sorry for you. Get out of it fast. Unlike last year when I said Cam Newton would have little fantasy value, I feel pretty confident in saying Weeden will have little fantasy value.

Draft Prep: Busts

Cam Newton (QB, CAR, ADP 17.2): He certainly has the talent and the offensive line to not be a bust, but his numbers from last year are simply a long shot. If you could grab him in the third or fourth round, he would be more than worth a pick. But going middle of the second round is way too high to justify a pick for Cam. Rushing touchdowns are very hard to predict and there is almost no way Newton comes close to his 2nd in the NFL 14 rushing touchdowns. According to Christopher Harris' research, quarterbacks who score 6 or more rushing touchdowns in a season average only 2.1 the following season. Luckily for Cam, he is no Michael Vick when it comes to injuries. Instead, a more fair comparison is to Dante Culpepper. This a good thing for the huge, athletic freak who does appear to be fairly durable. While I expect Cam's numbers should decline, the main reason for me labeling him a bust is because of where he is being drafted. But with elite upside and not a ton a downside, Cam will not bust quite to the level that Derek Anderson did.

What? I'm not elite?

Matt Schaub (QB, HOU, 90.0): Those who think Schaub still has elite potential are sorely wrong. Houston is a run-first team now making for far less opportunities for Schaub. Not only is he very injury prone, but his elite target Andre Johnson has not been able to stay on the field either.

If everything is okay, then
 why don't you stop holding out?

Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, JAC, 7.7): Still holding out, MJD is definitely someone to keep on eye on. While the Jags have by no means ever been an offensive juggernaut, having Blaine Gabbert does absolute nothing to take pressure off of MJD. Of the top four running backs, he has the most question marks surrounding him. He is still just 27 years old, but his carries are piling up. He had over 380 touches last year and was probably overworked. And with the holdout still going, MJD is setting himself up to disappoint countless owners.

Jamaal Charles (RB, KC, 26.4): Chalres is an immense talent who has averaged 5.8 yards per carry in his career. But questions about his recovery from a torn ACL and Peyton Hillis in the mix make Charles a less than ideal option. Even if he is at full strength, he will surely lose goaline carries to Hillis. And Charles' explosiveness and open-field running depend so much on his ACL that I do not see Charles being his old self.

Fred Jackson (RB, BUF, 35.0): He will be 31 this year and is recovering from a broken leg. Not only that, but C.J. Spiller excelled in his absence which indicates a major timeshare coming. I expect Jackson to receive the majority of carries, but Spiller will take a huge bite into his production. Do not expect anything close to Jackson's first half of last season. While his wife might not be as hesitant about picking him this year, everyone else should have caution in regards to picking him.

Willis McGahee (RB, DEN, 54.1): McGahee's late-career resurgence turned heads last year. But going from a run-heavy, Tebow-led offense to a Peyton Manning offense will render McGahee useless. He is not a great pass-catching back and is mediocre in pass blocking. Expect other Broncos running backs to take reps and for McGahee's age to catch up to him.

Andre Johnson (WR, HOU, 14.4): Really. I'm serious. For a guy who has played just 20 games in the past two seasons, I am not optimistic. The now run-heavy Texans also have a much better defense which means less catch-up for them and less throwing. I would much rather take Roddy White, Greg Jennings, and even Wes Welker. Taking an early second round pick on Johnson would be unwise and way too risky. If you can get him in the third round, well, then he is a potential steal. But don't be fooled by Johnson. He should no longer be looked at as an obvious top two wideout.

Mike Wallace (WR, PIT, 26.6): Of all my bust candidates, this is the one I feel most strong about. He was Big Ben's second favorite target last year and had an abysmal second half. In the last nine games, he had only two with double digit scoring. He is still holding out and it does not appear to be ending any time soon. Wallace does have number one potential, but is much better suited as a number two receiver this year. And if he gets traded, it will likely not help his value in any way. Stay away from him in drafts.

Vincent Jackson (WR, TB, 53.9): This guy could be labeled a bust almost every year. He almost always seems to be labeled as a near-elite receiver but never produces like one. He has never had more than 70 catches or double digit touchdowns. He now switches from Philip Rivers to Josh Freeman throwing him the ball. And Tampa Bay will be a run-oriented team. He will disappoint like usual. That, you can count on.

Draft Prep: Players to Avoid

Avoid these players. Whether it's for injury concerns, fluke seasons, or being drafted too high, I would recommend a rethink if you are wanting to draft any of these guys.

As 1 Thessalonians 5:22 says, "Avoid every kind of evil". While these players are not evil by any means, the things they may do to your team may seem evil. And while you are at it, avoid using Bible verses out of context. Psh, I mean, who does that? But seriously, those who use individual verses to prove points miss the context and point of passages. In order to not do that, it helps to use the ladder of abstraction, which helps us find an underlying universal principal in context. For instance, when there is foot washing in the Bible, it is not proper to extrapolate and say that we, in today's culture, need to wash our neighbors' feet. Instead, we see how foot washing was a way to keep your house clean. We also can take away the theme of serving one another with humility and being hospitable.

Um, well, how does this connect at all? It does not really. But for those who find research saying that  Eric Dickerson tanked after a 380 plus carry season does not necessarily mean that Maurice Jones-Drew cannot handle it. Times are different. Athletes are built differently. In short, the game has changed. So when it comes to finding research about current situations, like Adrian Peterson's torn ACL, it can be good to look into the past for reference. Just do not hold it as truth for what will happen next.

So. Back to the actual point of this article. Here are players you should avoid on draft day.

Peyton Manning (QB, DEN, ADP 42.1): For a career filled with twice as many indoor games as outdoor games, Manning now faces 15 outdoor games this year. His outdoor numbers, while not terrible, do in fact drop significantly from his indoor numbers. That plus his age, his neck, and a brand new team makes me want to avoid Manning this year. While being the eight quarterback selected sounds like a bargain, there are much better, surefire options.

Eli Manning (QB, NYG, ADP 31.9): Both Mannings make this list as this year Eli is actually being overvalued. While he did produce a stellar 5,000 yard season last year, he still was one of the more inconsistent quarterbacks. He had six games with under 15 points and finished the year with only 29 touchdowns. Good, but not great. Of the eight other quarterbacks to ever throw for 5,000 yards in a season, they averaged 41 touchdowns. So the question: where were Manning's?

Matt Stafford (QB, DET, ADP 13.0): For a guy going borderline first round, I do not want to touch him. No doubt he has the talent to be a top five quarterback. And he has Calvin Johnson. But, he has played only one full season in his career, has a poor offensive line, and little running game. Do I want to pick a player in the first round based on one great season? Nope.

JaMarcus Russell (QB, Biggest Losers, ADP (average donuts per day) 12): Avoid him. He may just eat you, too.

Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 25.5): The thing about McFadden is that he is one the best fantasy running backs out there. The other thing is that he can rarely stay on the field. If you are feeling dicey, then McFadden could be one of the biggest steals this year. He is the epitome of a high risk, high reward player.

Frank Gore (RB, SF, 35.2): No longer viewed as a number one running back, owners should see Gore as a solid number two. Gore finally lasted a full season, but saw his workload decrease as the season went on. That said, he now has Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James, and Kendall Hunter all in the mix to steal carries. Don't be surprised if there is another decline in Gore's carries and productivity.

Roy Helu (RB, WSH, 52.6): I love this guy. He showed immense potential in his rookie campaign by compiling over 1,000 all-purpose yards to go along with 49 catches. In PPR leagues, he will be a great option. But anytime Mike Shanahan is your coach, we actually have no idea who will get the bulk of carries. For all I know, Terrell David could come out of retirement and Shanahan will give him the carries. Any Redskins' running back is risky, although Helu hopes to break the Shanahan curse and be the go-to guy.

Willis McGahee (RB, DEN, 54.3): Remember Joseph Addai in the high powered Colts' offense. Remember his incredible numbers? . . . Oh, wait. Well, McGahee, who turns 31 this year, could end up a replica of Addai, only worse. McGahee does not catch well and is poor in pass protection, which means he may not do too much this year with Manning. Before you think McGahee will ride on coattails of last year, think again.

Calvin Johnson (WR, DET, 6.8): Madden curse? Is it true? Does it affect a robot? Who knows? Other than the curse, there are no actual viable concerns for this beast of a player.

Mike Wallace (WR, PIT, 26.5): This man is still holding out. So watch out come draft day. Wallace did very little toward the end of last season and Antonio Brown emerged as a favorite of Ben Roethlisberger. In Wallace's last 9 games, he scored double digits just TWICE! For the consensus top eight wide receiver, he is one to be drafted with caution. He still has lights out potential, but has a moderately high risk component.

Vincent Jackson (WR, TB, 53.8): He has never caught more than 68 passes in a season. Or double digit touchdowns. Or 1,200 yards. A guy that always seems slightly overrated, Jackson now leaves his comfort of Philip Rivers and goes to run-heavy, Josh Freeman led Tampa Bay. Things do not look good, my friends.

Victor Cruz (WR, NYG, 31.8): This is more based on draft position than on talent or production. Cruz has the ability to replicate last year's numbers. But he almost surely will not. He scored on touchdowns last year of 68, 72, 74, 74, and 99 yards. Think he can do that again? I like Cruz and think he can still produce like a top 20 receiver, just not the top 10 where he is currently being drafted.

Andre Johnson (WR, HOU, 14.3): Yup, you read it right. For a guy who has failed to stay healthy the past two seasons, I cannot advise taking him so high this year. He has played just 20 games the past two years and while he has been productive, he has been a headache to deal with. And now Houston has become a run first team, meaning Johnson will have less chances to produce like he once did. I am not saying that Johnson is done by any means, I am just saying he is no longer the Andre we knew and used to draft first of wide receivers.

Vernon Davis (TE, SF, 52.5): He's a great talent hurt by his quarterback Alex Smith. While Smith is by no means a bad quarterback, Davis just does not get the same chances that a Jimmy Graham or even a Jason Witten get. Davis was very inconsistent last year and that is due to him getting mainly underneath throws from Smith. If Smith can air it out more, perhaps Davis will return to the top five. Till further notice, he is just a solid top 10 option.

Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, 67.0): At least he is not being drafted as early as Davis, but Finley was perhaps the most inconsistent of all fantasy players. He was plagued by drops and had only four double digit games. He has ridiculous potential, but still has not reached it.

Stephen Gostowski (K, NE, 110.1): WHY ON EARTH DO PEOPLE PICK KICKERS THIS EARLY? Wait till the LAST ROUND, close your eyes and point at the screen. There, you have your kicker! Last year, if you removed David Akers' season, there was only a 15 point difference between the 1st and 10th kicker! Even with Akers, it was still only 49 points.

Elite QB Strategy Vs. Two-QB Strategy

       For the past several years in fantasy football, the value of a quarterback has gradually increased. While it used to be uncommon for a quarterback to go in round 1, we have seen a large amount of quarterbacks drafted in the early rounds. While there are 6 clear elite quarterbacks this year, and maybe a seventh in Tony Romo, the depth at quarterback has also increased. While some prefer to jump on the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick, others prefer to wait for a combination like Matt Stafford and Eli Manning. There can be benefits to either strategy.

       While in the past I would have waited to draft a QB like Ben Roethisberger later, I have now become an advocate of taking a QB in rounds 2-4. Each draft will vary, but you cannot argue with the consistency and production from this year's top 7. Besides Michael Vick, you almost know what you will get from these top quarterbacks. Even Tony Romo last year was on pace for a solid 4280 yards and 29 touchdowns before he got injured. Just take a look at the averages for the past 3 full seasons for each elite quarterback. 

Quarterback	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns
Aaron Rodgers	4131	29
Drew Brees	4692	34
Michael Vick (just last year's)	3018	21
Philip Rivers	4324	31
Tom Brady	4368	38
Peyton Manning	4401	31
Tony Romo	4047	30

       Obviously, with players like Rodgers and Vick, they see their points increase greatly thanks to rushing stats which also helps their argument as surefire first rounders. But you can see why it is to your benefit to grab one of the elites. They have the marks of consistent production year in and year out. That said, overpaying can leave you short-handed at key WR and RB positions, so be careful. Snagging someone like Philip Rivers, for instance, who is not too different from Rodgers, is a better bargain being drafted 2-3 rounds later. But stretching for someone like Peyton Manning, who I have advised to be avoided in drafts for now obvious reasons, can be a poorly valued pick.

       So the question that arises is, "What if I want to wait altogether on a quarterback? How much do I lose by going with the likes of Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford as opposed to Tom Brady?". The answer is not simple. For one, you lose a bench spot to a quarterback. With a top 7 QB, you hardly need a backup save their bye weeks. For any other quarterback, you will surely need a backup. In addition, playing matchups can become stressful and it makes for tough weekly decisions.

       So let's take a look at some scenarios that may have played out in just last season. I will assume that the best decision possible was made each week in these 2-QB scenarios.

Quarterbacks	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns
Flacco/Roethlisberger	4310	29
Eli Manning/Ryan	4185	39
Cutler/Cassel	3674	33
Bradford/Sanchez	4052	24
Palmer/Schaub	5076	34

       So, clearly the two quarterback strategy can work. In fact, it can even work better than an elite quarterback. But this strategy is risky and far from a given. Playing the matchups perfectly is nearly impossible to do. And the fact that these quarterbacks are not as consistent as the elite leaves you vulnerable to implosions. 

       The quarterbacks being drafted later are drafted for clear reasons. Some may be injury-prone like Stafford, others may be pick magnets like Manning, and some are still young and unproven like Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford. I do believe that there is great potential for some of these quarterbacks, but they no doubt have a risk and a bit of an "unknown" factor. That is, we still do not really know how they will do. This is a sharp contrast to someone like Brady or Rodgers. Consistency is a big issue as well; thus, making matchup playing a nightmare. 

       Is it worth it? To me, the answer is no. To others who think they are brilliant coaches and matchup wizards, go for it. But I would much rather have the safety of a Rivers, Rodgers, or Brady than a mixture of Eli Manning and Matt Stafford. I figure, you save a bench spot for a non-quarterback and avoid stressful decision making during the week. Not only are you going to get consistent, solid production, you will have the luxury in knowing that you have a top quarterback who does not need to be subbed out. 

       If you do miss out on an elite quarterback (Tony Romo signifies the end of the elites), don't panic and be patient. Who knows, getting Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford could be a blessing in disguise. This year there is potential outside of the top 7 for similar production to an elite quarterback. While you won't be nearly as safe, you can still have a top-notch team that can crack the playoffs. I still advise getting a top tier QB, but at least for this season, it is not the end of the world to miss out. 

all stats from ESPN stats and game logs

Players that I L.O.V.E

       Love is a powerful word. Love is what holds the world together. Love conquers all. It's a love story baby just say yeah.
       Every year, there are players that for some reason or another, I absolutely love and will target in nearly every draft. The hardest part about loving players in fantasy is to not reach on them. And then there's the grey area of picking players from your favorite team that you love. No doubt, it can make your season that much more fun. Unless you're a Cincinnati Bengals fan.
       So for every draft, it is a good idea to have a list of players that you absolutely love. These can be picks that you think will be bargains, gut feeling break out players, or players whose point per game difference (at their respective position) is greatest (Michael Vick and Antonio Gates). Whoever your "love" players are, it is best to avoid unnatural love. Like love for players with awesome names. Anyone remember Tim Biakabutuka? Or Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala? Or the current T.J. Houshmandzadeh, now known to many as T.J. Who's Your Mama. Despite awesome names, clearly guys like these shouldn't be among your loved fantasy players. You get the picture.
       But there are many things I love in this world. Football, duh. Ultimate Frisbee. Taylor Swift. Chocolate apple juice. Jesus (he's the one I love the most and the reason I live life the way I do). The Packers.
       Anyways, here are some players that I love and think you should too.

       Shonn Greene (RB, NYJ, ADP 61): Last year, Greene was way overvalued. This year, he is far too undervalued. Experts were calling for his breakout season last year when LaDanian Tomlinson spoiled hopes of that. But now, Shonn Greene should take off and produce like many thought he would last year. LT's role will be much more limited and Greene will be a force. Draft him. For his draft value, you won't regret it.

       Ahmad Bradshaw (RB, NYG, ADP 35): For someone who put quietly put up 1,500 total yards and 8 touchdowns, he is a great value being selected as the 16th running back. I expect more of the same from him and think he will outperform the likes of DeAngelo Williams, Darren McFadden, and LeGarrett Blount. And maybe more.

       Matthew Stafford (QB, DET, ADP 109): If only Stafford could stay healthy, he may be a top 10 quarterback. Unfortunately, he has only played in 13 of 32 possible games. But Detroit has loads of talent including this guy by the name of Calvin Johnson. Maybe you heard of him. He and Stafford have great chemistry and Megatron will see his value boosted if Stafford stays healthy. Now Stafford is not one that I would neccessarily draft, but he will be a great addition in deeper leagues and for those who miss on one of the elite quarterbacks.

       Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI, ADP 22): This a bit of an obvious one, but I think Fitzgerald will make a return to the top 5 thanks to Kevin Kolb. Considering what Fitzgerald did last year with three mediocre quarterbacks, I think Fitzgerald should now be drafted in the top 5 over Greg Jennings. Kolb may not live up to they hype, but that doesn't mean that Fitzy won't benefit. He will. And if Kolb does bust, it can't be much worse than Derek Anderson or Max Hall. Right?

       Neil Rackers (K, HOU, ADP 121): Ha, just kidding. You know how I feel about kickers.

       Wes Welker (WR, NE, ADP 57): Welker's knee appears to be fine and I think Welker will make a return to triple digit receptions this season. While Chad Ochocinco won't stretch the defense quite like Randy Moss did, I think Welker will be able to benefit nonetheless. He will once again be a monster in PPR leagues and should be in line for a solid season. He is currently being drafted as the 19th receiver, but will perform more in the 10th to 15th range.

       Philip Rivers (QB, SD, ADP 24): Why do I mind not getting Aaron Rodgers as my quarterback? It's because of this guy right here. Three consecutive 4,000 yards seasons with 28 plus TD passes and Rivers is not far behind. He is being drafted much later allowing you to get an elite running back or wide receiver. I will take Rivers and Ray Rice any day over Rodgers and Cedric Benson.

       Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, ADP 56): Hopefully this isn't a love due to my allegiance to the Super Bowl champs. However, Finley is absolutely loaded with talent and if he can finally stay healthy, who knows what kind of numbers we may see. And if he gets hurt, so what? There are plenty of other tight ends who won't be very different from the 6th to 15th ranked ones. You may miss out on a value pick, but I see Finley putting together a season to remember. If you don't believe me, watch this.

       Shawn Johnson: You are my soul mate and will always have a place in my heart. Love, Nate.

       Matt Forte (CHI, RB, ADP 29): Another PPR stud, Forte has put up solid numbers his whole career and is still a bit on the undervalued side. He should get you 1,500 total yards and will get his share of touchdowns.

       Jahvid Best (DET, RB, ADP 47): Best is another running back that I can see breaking out and he will be a stud in PPR leagues. With Mikel Leshore done for the season, Best and his Charles-like potential will be in for a fun ride.

       Austin Collie (IND, WR, ADP 75): Collie was on path to a monstrous season last year when multiple concussions derailed his hopes. For someone being drafted behind Chad Ochocinco, I don't see how you can go wrong. He has evident low end number 1 potential and can be drafted as your third, maybe even fourth receiver. He is definitely worth a chance and can bolster any lineup. Think of his stats like Vick's from last year projected over a full season. Ridiculous. 103 catches, 1153 yards, and 14 touchdowns. And that's including the game where he was re-injured.

       Ryan Grant (RB, GB, ADP 55): Another running back makes my love list and in the form of another Super Bowl champ. He missed basically all of last year but appears to be at full strength this year. Despite competition from James Starks, Grant will be the go-to-guy and can pick up where he left off in 2009. He won't be a number 1 back, but can definitely put up 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns, making him a very solid mid-round pick.

       Plaxico Burress (WR, NYJ, ADP 103): Plaxico has slowly moved up the wide receiver ranks and is reaching a point where he may be drafted too high. He is as far away from a surefire pick as you can be and may end up doing absolutely nothing. But, I think he is a worthy pick in the late rounds because he has huge potential. Despite obvious concerns, you will be mad is you didn't use your 15th rounder on him and he goes on to have a productive year. He is replacing Braylon Edwards and has the size to still be effective. Let's just hope he doesn't shoot himself in the foot or anything with the second chance.

       Tim Tebow (QB, DEN, undrafted): I just love the man. Clearly, most of his sleeper value is gone. But, that doesn't mean I can't love a man who cares about the game, people, and Jesus. I think any hate directed at him is unwarranted and unnecessary. But yeah, don't draft him (this year).

       LeSean McCoy (RB, PHI, ADP 11): While his rushing stats are solid, it is his receiving game that makes me love him so much. Even if Vick goes down, McCoy will get his carries and his catches. I would take him over MJD and Ray Rice, making him my fifth rated running back. In PPR leagues, he can goes as high the number 1 pick, although he will most likely be between the 2nd and 4th.

       BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, NE, ADP 52): This may be my one of my least popular love picks. Bill Belichick always seems to make life difficult when choosing New England running backs. And with two early draft picks spent on running backs, Green-Ellis may find himself limited. And while he isn't the most talented of running backs, I don't see himself faltering. Maybe this is a gut feeling, but I think BenJarvus puts together another solid season and proves his worth as a number 2 back being drafted as your 3rd or 4th.

       Mike Sims-Walker (WR, STL, ADP 132): Sims-Walker was already a low risk late pick, but now that he is almost guaranteed a roster spot, my hopes are even higher. Sam Bradford throwing to him makes him a great comeback candidate in an improving offense.

Oh, JaMarcus.

       JaMarcus Russell (Hot dog eater, IKEA couches, sleeping): I just love making fun of him. What's not to love about a former quarterback built like a lineman? He still is in possibly the funniest "yahoo answers" questions that I have ever seen, "Did JaMarcus Russell refuse to take HGH because it didn't come in a chewable bacon-flavored form?"

       Brandon Lloyd (WR, DEN, ADP 52): Now I guess he isn't one I love, but someone I really really like. Much like Green-Ellis, not many people are expecting anything close to last season. But with Kyle Orton throwing, Lloyd really blossomed and should put up serviceable numbers this season. If Denver keeps up their losing ways, they will once again be forced to throw a ton, thus enhancing Lloyd's value. If he falls in your draft like he most likely will, keep an eye on him and don't be afraid to snag him.

        Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, ATL, undrafted): Now that's a cool name.

       Miles Austin (DAL, WR, ADP 33): While Dez Bryant may actually outproduce Austin this year, I think Austin will still be a tremendous pick. With a healthy Tony Romo, both Austin and Bryant may be in for big seasons. I like Austin a bit more than Bryant as he is more of a sure bet than Bryant, but both have huge potential in a potent offense.

Draft Day Tips: Rookies To Watch For

       Last year, only a couple rookies really made a splash in the fantasy football world. Those who stumbled upon the likes of Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount had to be extremely pleased with their solid production. Others, mainly Ryan Matthews and C.J. Spiller, were major disappointments and brought little to the table. But finding a solid rookie who can instantly produce is tough to come by these days and hardly predictable.
       For instance, someone like Jimmy Clausen who had one of the easier paths to becoming a starter, failed miserably to put up even decent quarterback numbers. But Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, rookie tight ends on the same team both became serviceable options at some point during the season. Last year's class is fairly promising for THIS years draft with Dez Bryant, Jahvid Best, Sam Bradford, and others looking to breakout this year. But, as for this years draft, here are my top rookies and the level of impact they will have this season.

       Daniel Thomas (RB, MIA, ADP 76): With both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams gone, Daniel Thomas will be the main feature in Miami. Oh wait, Reggie Bush is now there. But don't fret, Bush will keep his role as a third down back and won't hurt Thomas' value too much. This bruiser out of Kansas State should see a great amount of carries and will be Miami's workhorse. But, we all know that doesn't mean instant success for a rookie. Expect a solid impact with potential to be a high-end number 2 back.

       Mark Ingram (RB, NO, ADP 65): Once again, the New Orleans' backfield has become a three-headed monster with Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles. While early indications are that Ingram should see the bulk of the carries, there is no doubt that Thomas and Sproles both have potential to get their fair share. This limits Ingram's value despite his tremendous upside on the high-powered Saints. I would generally avoid Ingram considering his draft position, but he could put up solid stats. Expect a decent impact with solid number 2 RB potential.
       Julio Jones (WR, ATL, ADP 105): While fellow rookie wideout A.J. Green is being taken higher in drafts, I think Jones has more potential for his rookie campaign. Jones is being set into an already great offense with a fantastic quarterback in Matt Ryan. There are rave reviews right now for Jones and he could end up making a difference with Roddy White drawing double teams. Do not expect an immediate impact, but a good impact later in the season. Keep your eye on him.
       Roy Helu (RB, WSH, ADP 130): Regarded highly by Coach Mike Shanahan, Helu will definitely see some playing time. How much that is relies heavily on injury prone Ryan Torain and newly acquired Tim Hightower. While it is a cluttered backfield, Helu has great potential and could emerge as Shanahan's new guy. If Torain gets hurt, I think Helu could really shine and have a big fantasy impact. But until then, expect just a marginal impact on behalf of Helu.
       A.J. Green (WR, CIN, ADP 89): A.J. Green is in the perfect situation. He is a promising rookie wide receiver expected to start in week 1. And he plays for the mighty, oh, wait. Cincinnati Bengals. At least he has Carson Pal... Oh. Maybe not. Well, Green does have a promising future ahead of him with Andy Dalton looking to develop. But the Bengals, without Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer, may have a rough time against punishing defenses like Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice a season. And with the chance of Bruce Gradkowski throwing to him, Green will find it tough to be fantasy relevant. Expect a marginal fantasy impact with potential to be a low-end number 3 receiver.
       Ryan Williams (RB, ARI, ADP 91): Arizona made a surprising pick with Williams despite taking Beanie Wells in the first round just two years ago. Williams will get carries, but needs time to adjust to the NFL especially coming off an injury. I do not see Arizona giving up on Beanie so quickly, but Williams could make a splash if Wells struggles again. Expect a moderate impact from Williams.
       Alex Henry (K, PHI, ADP 152): If you know me, then you know my thoughts on kickers. But Henry may actually end up being the most fantasy relevant rookie (kind of). He is on the high-powered Eagles and will see plenty of points. But is any kicker really more fantasy relevant than another? Even if you take him (it better be in the last round), it's not like he will be any different from any other kicker. Hard to predict (and even harder because he's a rookie) and not a difference maker. But he could finish in the top 10 at his position. Which is why I guess I have to say that he will have a solid fantasy impact.
       Cam Newton (QB, CAR, ADP 131): There is really no reason to draft him. Although he can compile rushing yards, expect no fantasy impact from Newton this season.
       Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, ATL, undrafted): Rodgers' value falls solely in PPR leagues. He is still the third man in Atlanta and very undersized. But he is electrifying and should find the field at least a little bit. Monitor him for leagues that give points for catches. Other than that, he really has no value.
       Dane Sanzenbacher (WR, CHI, undrafted): Consider him a very, very deep sleeper. His chances of even making the team are not that high, but they seem to improve every day. He is even challenging Earl Bennett for FIRST team slot reps. Who knows? He could be the next Wes Welker. While realistically he won't have value this season, I think he could surprise and see the field more than one would think. If you are in a deep league, give him a shot.
       My former fellow Illini Mikel Leshore would have made this list if not due to a season ending injury. He still has a promising future ahead of him. But with the luck the Lions have had drafting, maybe they should look at fellow Fighting Illini Nate Amodio who rushed for 1 touchdown in the intramural season. He could make the transition from QB to RB as long as the NFL makes a rule for the max player weight to be 150.
     

Draft Day Tips: Bang for Yo' Buck, Value Picks

       Value, according to Merriam-Webster dictionary, is the relative worth, utility, or importance. A value pick in fantasy is someone who can be picked later than others at his position, but has potential to produce on par or even better than those drafted ahead. By identifying key value picks in your draft, you should be able to really bolster your lineup and have depth on your bench. Here are some players who I think provide great value for where they are being drafted.

       Tony Romo (QB, DAL, ADP 45): Romo being drafted will most likely signify the end of the elite quarterbacks in your draft. Although drafting him coming off his injury is a bit risky, he provides great value for a 4^th to 5^th round pick. Before last season, he put up at least 26 touchdowns in three consecutive seasons and over 4,000 yards in two of them. Expect him to return to those numbers making him a solid number 1 option and great value if you want to wait a bit for a quarterback, while still grabbing an elite one.

       Kevin Kolb (QB, ARI, ADP 112): With a fresh new start in Arizona, Kolb has a chance to piece together a solid season with his new team. Despite his lack of experience and poor touchdown to interception ratio, look for Kolb after the 10^th round. Here, he can provide backup value with potential to be a low end starter. Keep in mind that if you do grab a top 7 quarterback, there is really no need for a backup. But those who go for a two QB strategy or aren’t sure of their starter, Kolb should be your man.

       Ahmad Bradshaw (RB, NYG, ADP 35): Now back with the Giants, speedster Bradshaw is looking to pick up where he left off last year. Even with Brandon Jacobs in the mix, Bradshaw saw more carries and produced 1,500 all-purpose yards and 8 touchdowns. Look for more of the same from Bradshaw who has great potential for a 3^rd or 4^th round back. And with him being drafted close to Knowshon Moreno and Ryan Matthews, I would take Bradshaw in a heartbeat over the two.

       BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, NE, ADP 52): This is where the site you use for fantasy changes one's value greatly. In my drafts on Nfl.com, I have gotten tremendous value for him in the 9^th round. But on ESPN, it appears as if he is going more towards the 5^th round. Nonetheless, Green-Ellis has a knack for the endzone and provides good value if you can snag him after the 5^th round. Just be wary of Bill Belichick who tends to mix up his backfield quite a bit. And with New England using their recent 2^nd and 3^rd round picks on running backs, Green-Ellis may get lost in the mix. However, I expect Green-Ellis to have another productive season as he is one of my favorite mid round running backs.

       Shonn Greene (RB, NYJ, ADP 59): Last year many people, expected Greene to be a breakout candidate with a bigger role in New York. Unfortunately for his owners, LaDainian Tomlinson reemerged and bumped Greene down to a small role. But this year Greene should get the bulk of the carries and will play more like he did against Chicago in week 16. For a 5^th or 6^th round pick, Greene could bring the value of 2^nd or 3^rd round pick. And folks, this year will be his breakout year.

       Brandon Lloyd (WR, DEN, ADP 53): Again, the site you draft on could greatly change someone like Lloyd’s draft spot. Since people tend to draft generally based on the site's rankings, I’ve seen Lloyd go anywhere from the 5^th round to the 8^th round. If you can get Lloyd anywhere after the 6^th round, he could be a steal. Don’t expect last year’s numbers, but with Orton still throwing and Lloyd his go-to guy, I think he will surprise us again. And in my league where he is my 4^th receiver, I couldn’t be happier.

       Austin Collie (WR, IND, ADP 72): Collie was having a stellar season till a series of concussions derailed his season. But he showed that he is capable to be a great number 2 wide receiver and is a bargain in the 7^th round. In just 9 games last season, he had caught 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns. The Colts have lots of receiving options, but Collie should be able to shine in the slot. Albeit a bit of a risky pick given his concussions, Collie is a fairly low-risk high-reward pick in the middle rounds.

       Mike Sims-Walker (WR, STL, ADP 131): Look for Sims-Walker to be an absolute steal late in your draft. While you shouldn’t expect him to be a number 1 option, don’t be surprised if he puts up 800 yards and 6 touchdowns. With Sam Bradford throwing, Sims-Walker could rebound, assuming that he does in fact make the team. The St. Louis camp is extremely crowded with average wide receivers and it is possible for Sims-Walker to not make the team. But given where he is being drafted, he is certainly worth the risk.

It's cool to punch a hole in a drywall, let alone catch a ball thrown from the other side. Skills. 

       Chris Cooley (TE, WSH, ADP 121): Long gone are the days of Cooley being an elite tight end. But last year, Cooley was still targeted plenty of times in the red-zone even with Fred Davis looking to grab the tight end spot. Cooley finished second among tight ends in catches and third in yards, but had only 3 touchdowns. Don’t be afraid to take Cooley in the late round if you miss out on the elite tight ends. While gone are his 6 touchdown seasons, he will still be a productive option. And, he still has one of the coolest "NFL Fantasy Files".

Draft Day Tips: Players to Avoid

       Every draft, there are players who owners may just be dying to get, whether its someone like Michael Vick, or their surefire sleeper. At the same time, there are those players who nobody wants to touch and with good reason. Here, I present some players and (their average draft position according to ESPN) that should generally be avoided.

Quarterbacks to Avoid:

       Jay Cutler (CHI, ADP 116): If Cutler makes your roster as a backup, then you should be fine because of his potential. If he somehow ends up as your starter, then you are in big trouble. His inconsistencies outweigh any of his productiveness and is wildly hit or miss. Last year, 8 of Cutler's 15 starts produced 15 or less fantasy points. Not ideal for a QB who will be missing his Pro Bowl center.

       Matt Cassel (KC, ADP 115): Cassel produced a fantastic season amidst low fantasy expectations. But he still has just a 59% completion percentage and is on a run first team. Last year, Cassel beat up on some of the league's worst defenses but now will face a much, much tougher schedule.

Running Backs to Avoid:
       Darren McFadden (OAK, ADP 22): McFadden finally became the runner he was expected to be out of Arkansas as he racked up nearly 1,700 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns. This is despite missing 3 games for the season. However, McFadden was nearly non-existent some weeks and poses serious injury concerns. That and him being drafted so high (I've seen him go late first round) and I would avoid McFadden. Unless he drops to you in the third round, he is not worth the risk.
       Ryan Matthews (SD, ADP 43): Matthews ended his season with his only good game of the year of 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. His season as a whole was a major disappointment and opened the door for fellow teammate Mike Tolbert. Now, missing some camp time with a toe injury and coming off wrist surgery makes Matthews risky. And with Tolbert possibly stealing goal line carries, Matthews is a very risky pick.
       Any Saints RB's: When Reggie Bush was traded, it looked like Mark Ingram (ADP 65) may be the feature back. Na uh. Think again as they brought in Darren Sproles (ADP 138) to make another three-headed backfield. With Ingram, Pierre Thomas (ADP 89), and Sproles all getting carries, their draft stock is limited. Ingram still has the most potential and Thomas is the most proven, but none should excite you when drafting.
       Ryan Torain (WAS, ADP 100): In 3 of his 8 games, Torain rushed for over 100 yards and became a useful option last year (while he was not hurt). Coach Mike Shanahan and the Redskins not only drafted Roy Helu, but traded for Tim Hightower who will be in the mix. Shanahan reportedly really likes Helu and this is another backfield with limited fantasy potential.
Wide Receivers to Avoid:
       Marques Colston (NO, ADP 47): Colston is no longer the number 1 receiver he once was despite the juggernaut Saints' offense. Brees just spreads the ball out so much that every week it seems to be someone different racking up yards and scoring touchdowns. This makes all Saints' players besides Brees tough to predict. Nonetheless, Colston is still the best for the Saints and does warrant a mid round selection. Just don't overpay for him.
       Hakeem Nicks (NYG, ADP 23): It's not that you should necessarily avoid Nicks, just do not jump on him too early. He is often being drafted before Larry Fitzgerald because of his strong season last year. But I would rather have Fitzgerald who put up 1,100 yards and 7 touchdowns with terrible quarterbacks Derek Anderson, John Skelton, and Max Hall. With Kevin Kolb now, imagine the possibilities and do not take Nicks over him. Nicks should still be a top 7 WR, but he's not worth grabbing so early.
Tight Ends to Avoid:
       Owen Daniels (HOU, ADP 79): I actually like Daniels a lot, just not enough to draft him in the eighth round. He is viewed as the number six tight end and a great comeback candidate, but I would avoid him solely based on draft position. You can still grab very comparable tight ends much later in the draft and hardly lose any value. If you miss on a top five tight end, wait patiently, and let the draft come to you.
Kickers to Avoid:
       Have you read my thoughts on kickers? Pick one, unless he has Bill Gramatica potential. This marks one of my favorite childhood football memories by the way.
Defenses to Avoid:
       Arizona Cardinals (Not drafted): Arizona finished last season ranked 9th for defenses. I can guarantee that it will not happen again. Most of their points came on defensive touchdowns even though they were continually torched by opposing offenses. The loss of playmaker Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie hurts them even more. Do not draft them. Period.