Draft Day Tips: Rookies To Watch For

       Last year, only a couple rookies really made a splash in the fantasy football world. Those who stumbled upon the likes of Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount had to be extremely pleased with their solid production. Others, mainly Ryan Matthews and C.J. Spiller, were major disappointments and brought little to the table. But finding a solid rookie who can instantly produce is tough to come by these days and hardly predictable.
       For instance, someone like Jimmy Clausen who had one of the easier paths to becoming a starter, failed miserably to put up even decent quarterback numbers. But Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, rookie tight ends on the same team both became serviceable options at some point during the season. Last year's class is fairly promising for THIS years draft with Dez Bryant, Jahvid Best, Sam Bradford, and others looking to breakout this year. But, as for this years draft, here are my top rookies and the level of impact they will have this season.

       Daniel Thomas (RB, MIA, ADP 76): With both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams gone, Daniel Thomas will be the main feature in Miami. Oh wait, Reggie Bush is now there. But don't fret, Bush will keep his role as a third down back and won't hurt Thomas' value too much. This bruiser out of Kansas State should see a great amount of carries and will be Miami's workhorse. But, we all know that doesn't mean instant success for a rookie. Expect a solid impact with potential to be a high-end number 2 back.

       Mark Ingram (RB, NO, ADP 65): Once again, the New Orleans' backfield has become a three-headed monster with Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles. While early indications are that Ingram should see the bulk of the carries, there is no doubt that Thomas and Sproles both have potential to get their fair share. This limits Ingram's value despite his tremendous upside on the high-powered Saints. I would generally avoid Ingram considering his draft position, but he could put up solid stats. Expect a decent impact with solid number 2 RB potential.
       Julio Jones (WR, ATL, ADP 105): While fellow rookie wideout A.J. Green is being taken higher in drafts, I think Jones has more potential for his rookie campaign. Jones is being set into an already great offense with a fantastic quarterback in Matt Ryan. There are rave reviews right now for Jones and he could end up making a difference with Roddy White drawing double teams. Do not expect an immediate impact, but a good impact later in the season. Keep your eye on him.
       Roy Helu (RB, WSH, ADP 130): Regarded highly by Coach Mike Shanahan, Helu will definitely see some playing time. How much that is relies heavily on injury prone Ryan Torain and newly acquired Tim Hightower. While it is a cluttered backfield, Helu has great potential and could emerge as Shanahan's new guy. If Torain gets hurt, I think Helu could really shine and have a big fantasy impact. But until then, expect just a marginal impact on behalf of Helu.
       A.J. Green (WR, CIN, ADP 89): A.J. Green is in the perfect situation. He is a promising rookie wide receiver expected to start in week 1. And he plays for the mighty, oh, wait. Cincinnati Bengals. At least he has Carson Pal... Oh. Maybe not. Well, Green does have a promising future ahead of him with Andy Dalton looking to develop. But the Bengals, without Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer, may have a rough time against punishing defenses like Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice a season. And with the chance of Bruce Gradkowski throwing to him, Green will find it tough to be fantasy relevant. Expect a marginal fantasy impact with potential to be a low-end number 3 receiver.
       Ryan Williams (RB, ARI, ADP 91): Arizona made a surprising pick with Williams despite taking Beanie Wells in the first round just two years ago. Williams will get carries, but needs time to adjust to the NFL especially coming off an injury. I do not see Arizona giving up on Beanie so quickly, but Williams could make a splash if Wells struggles again. Expect a moderate impact from Williams.
       Alex Henry (K, PHI, ADP 152): If you know me, then you know my thoughts on kickers. But Henry may actually end up being the most fantasy relevant rookie (kind of). He is on the high-powered Eagles and will see plenty of points. But is any kicker really more fantasy relevant than another? Even if you take him (it better be in the last round), it's not like he will be any different from any other kicker. Hard to predict (and even harder because he's a rookie) and not a difference maker. But he could finish in the top 10 at his position. Which is why I guess I have to say that he will have a solid fantasy impact.
       Cam Newton (QB, CAR, ADP 131): There is really no reason to draft him. Although he can compile rushing yards, expect no fantasy impact from Newton this season.
       Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, ATL, undrafted): Rodgers' value falls solely in PPR leagues. He is still the third man in Atlanta and very undersized. But he is electrifying and should find the field at least a little bit. Monitor him for leagues that give points for catches. Other than that, he really has no value.
       Dane Sanzenbacher (WR, CHI, undrafted): Consider him a very, very deep sleeper. His chances of even making the team are not that high, but they seem to improve every day. He is even challenging Earl Bennett for FIRST team slot reps. Who knows? He could be the next Wes Welker. While realistically he won't have value this season, I think he could surprise and see the field more than one would think. If you are in a deep league, give him a shot.
       My former fellow Illini Mikel Leshore would have made this list if not due to a season ending injury. He still has a promising future ahead of him. But with the luck the Lions have had drafting, maybe they should look at fellow Fighting Illini Nate Amodio who rushed for 1 touchdown in the intramural season. He could make the transition from QB to RB as long as the NFL makes a rule for the max player weight to be 150.
     

Nate Robinson to the NFL?

       Nate Robinson of the Oklahoma City Thunder declared recently that he may give the NFL a shot.  This is in the midst of the NBA lockout. So, Nate, you're thinking of going from one locked out sport to another locked out sport. Okay. Hmm...

       Well assuming Nate actually does give the NFL a shot, the question is if he actually make an NFL roster.  At 5'9", 180 pounds, he is undersized but extremely athletic and agile with a 43 inch vertical.  In high school, he played running back, wide receiver and defensive back. But if he were to play in the NFL, I think DB would be most suitable. Many people do not know that Robinson actually played one year of college ball at the University of Washington and recorded 34 tackles and 2 interceptions as a cornerback (gohuskies.com). Not bad eh?

Fantasy football implications: 
       Let's say, for instance, Nate becomes a running back. I see him as a surefire 2nd round pick and no lower than the 3rd round. After all, we've seen so many athlete transitions from the NBA to the NFL... I think Robinson will be best suited for the Seahawks where he can sport his Kryptonite green, leaving defenders helpless. His only goal will be to score touchdowns so he can show off his decent dunking ability on the goal post. With his slam dunk experience, I expect nothing less than him passing to himself with a sweet underhand lob, leaping over his lineman, catching the ball and going through the legs.  This should leave him in the open field for some big gains.

       So once you take Nate Robinson in the 2nd round, you should definitely look at a similar Nate in the 3rd round.  Just 3 inches shorter, white, and a sleek 150 pounds, Nate Amodio showed potential in the latest intramural football season. He is relative unknown in the football world, but could make a splash if he improves on his 10 TD's to 12 picks and 1-3 record. With Robinson as your starting running back and Amodio at your starting quarterback, I don't see how your season can go wrong.



Here are some of Nate Robinson's high school highlights for those interested.

 

INTRO

       Well, the fantasy football season is approaching and I thought I would finally start up my blog. 

       For starters, I would like to say some things about myself.  I am 19 [update: now 20. BAM!] years old and am a student at the University of Illinois.  I have gone from mechanical engineering to computer science engineering and I will finally be changing to statistics.  I have read box scores since I was 3 and can’t imagine doing something without numbers or sports.  For the past year, I rarely wore shoes. I have taken on the manly challenge of walking barefoot all the time.  No matter the weather.  However, I have heard that this is not manly, but rather idiotic. Perhaps the thorn that is currently lodged in my toe is a testament to the stupidity. Besides football, my favorite sport to play is Ultimate Frisbee.  My rec team at U of I won this past year and it is a blast doing the famous Aaron Rodgers belt celebration in opponent’s smug faces.

       Two of my favorite things are Jesus and football.  I love God and believe that Jesus is a life changer.  By no means do I want to shove Jesus down people’s throats in this blog, but I love talking about Jesus and am always open to talking about my faith.  As for football, I have never actually played organized football, but have a great passion for the game and the best team in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers.  My intramural football team has started practicing months in advance and we are looking at an intramural championship in the near future.  With me at quarterback and plenty of belt celebrations to come, I cannot wait for the season.

       As for my credentials for writing a blog about mainly fantasy football, I have played since age 12.  I was in one league that year and won it.  Since then, I average around 10 leagues or more per season (yeah, I know that’s a lot) and have made the playoffs in over 60% of them.  A great year will usually be winning 5 of 10 leagues, which indeed has happened. I also do 3 fantasy baseball leagues per year and have found success thanks to the greatest baseball guru I know, Kubs. He is a Diamonbacks fan and can literally name every prospect in their organization as well as the top 100 or so prospects in the majors. Deep stuff yo.  He may contribute some baseball knowledge to this blog in the future.

       So finally, here is a brief rundown of this blog.

What this blog will contain:

• Tips on how to domiNATE your fantasy league
• Fantasy football player profiles
• Statistical analysis on various football and baseball related topics
• Current sports events and media
• Manliness
• Ultimate Frisbee
• Intramural football updates
• Stuff I have learned about Jesus and my expression of love for Him
• My expression of love for Aaron Rodgers and Tim Tebow

What this blog will not contain:

• Soccer
• Tips that will worsen your chances of winning your fantasy league
• Soccer
• Me reminiscing of my little league baseball dominance despite my chubby stature and glasses/croakie combination
• One more time for good measure: anything, anything at all that could possibly include even the mentioning of Soccer