2013 Tight End Tiers and Consistencies

Goodbye, Aaron Hernandez. Goodbye young Antonio Gates. Please get healthy, Rob Gronkowski. And good luck with drafting a tight end this year. Unless you get unquestioned number one Jimmy Graham, Gronk, Gonzalez, or Witten, you have little to no idea what you're getting. But that's why I'm here, folks.

The top tight end last year, Jimmy Graham, scored in double digits just SIX times. And Gronkowski scored in double digits just seven times: a far cry from what was supposed to be the deepest and best tight end class we've seen in a while. But instead we ended with tight ends who scored on average worse than kickers. And you all know how I feel about kickers. So let's take a look at some interesting stats.

Gronkowski missed five games yet scored just five points less than number one tight end Jimmy Graham. When healthy, Gronkowski is clearly the best the position has to offer.

Tony Gonzalez, now 36, had just a 2.8 yards-after-catch average, evidence of him slowing down. Yet he did manage the third most points for a tight end.

Kyle Rudolph had five double digit games last season. He also had seven games with two or less points. He finished ninth overall.

From week five through week twelve, Jermichael Finley never caught more than four passes. But in his first four games and last three he averaged 5.3 catches per game. Not half bad in other words. And now Greg Jennings is gone.

After Colin Kaepernick's first start where Vernon Davis put up 83 yards and one touchdown, Davis caught SIX passes in the next SIX games.

Jason Witten accumulated 110 catches but just three touchdowns to show for it.

And here's the kicker (pun intended):

• The top 10 tight ends averaged a total of 116.4 points for the season. The top 10 kickers meanwhile averaged a total of 148.7 points for the season.
• The difference between the 1st and 10th kicker was, as expected, a very low 30 points. The difference between the 1st and 10th tight end is just 47 points. In comparison, the 1st QB and 10th QB was 74, the 1st RB and 20th RB was 158, the 1st WR and 20th WR was 79, and the 1st DST and 10th DST was 81..

So what this means is that at least last year, having the best tight end was not nearly as beneficial in comparison to the field as was the top QB, RB, WR, or even the top DST! The tight ends last year were simply mediocre and essentially almost as useless and unpredictable as kickers. The big question is if that will remain true this year. 

With tiers, you will be helped in deciding if you think Jimmy Graham is worth a third or fourth round pick. And it should help you figure out just how much value the tight end has this year. For me, if I can get Witten or Gonzalez in the fifth to seventh round, maybe I'll bite. At least I know I should get around 60 yards per week from them. As for anyone else, I admit, I have no freaking clue. It's that bad. Like the sweater you got for Christmas bad. Or Tim Tebow completion percentage bad. Or even worse, the Aaron Hernandez jersey you just got bad. So with all that badness, here are your 2013 tight end tiers.

Tier 1: The Elite

1. Rob Gronkowski (ADP 40.8)

2. Jimmy Graham (ADP 26.1)

Despite missing five games, Gronkowski scored 11 touchdowns and finished second in points for a tight end. Had he played the whole season at his rate, he would have had 80 catches, 1150 yards, and 16 touchdowns. But the fact is that Gronk has officially become injury prone. He got hurt in the Super Bowl against the Giants and this past season and now multiple surgeries later, Gronk is hoping to retain his elite form. And Graham, who was snubbed in the NFL's top 100 players, is the closest thing to Gronk. If he hadn't dropped a league leading 14 passes, Graham would have been even more spectacular. But assuming he can cut down on drops and with the return of Sean Payton, I expect another solid year from Graham. 

Who I want the most: It has to be Gronk despite his injury concerns. Because right now at his average draft position he brings tremendous draft day value. If he was not hurt, he certainly would be ahead of Graham and in the second to third round range as well. Even if he misses a few games, pick up Jermichael Finley and hope for the best. Or take any other option and hope for the best. But when he is healthy, you've got the biggest positional advantage in the game. And the lack of weapons should only help out Gronkowski. There's just enough there in New England to keep Gronk from being constantly double teamed and he should be just fine. Just look at Calvin Johnson without any help. 

Tier 2: The Elderly Elite:

3. Jason Witten (ADP 56.3)

4. Tony Gonzalez (ADP 52.3)

5. Vernon Davis (ADP 59.2)

Davis is not nearly as old as Witten or Gonzlez, but he sure looked it last year. He had a miserable year with Kaepernick but fortunately made a connection with his QB in the playoffs. And Michael Crabtree's injury could pave way to many more targets in San Francisco. Witten is coming off a monstrous 110 catch season and Gonzalez continues to withstand Father Time. Witten did score just three touchdowns but was a constant and reliable option and will continue to be this season. Gonzalez will still see plenty of red zone targets but will be hurt a bit by incoming Steven Jackson who will add his pass-catching ability to the mix.

Who I want the most: I'll take Witten and his reliability. Gonzalez at age 37 has limited upside and Davis is simply too inconsistent. Witten can still put up large numbers and if his touchdowns returns to a more typical 5-7, he could even surpass Jimmy Graham this year. But if you want an elite tight end this year, make sure you take one of these five in the first 60 picks otherwise you will miss out. 

Tier 3: The Next Five

6*. Dennis Pitta (had he not just dislocated his hip. Likely out for much of season)

7*. Heath Miller (had he not torn his ACL, MCL, and PCL. Likely out much of season)

6. Owen Daniels (ADP 92.1)

7. Antonio Gates (ADP 96.0)

8. Kyle Rudolph (ADP 85.9)

9. Greg Olsen (ADP 96.7)

10. Brandon Myers (ADP 117.8)

Here's a great mixture of mediocre tight ends. Daniels has been okay but nothing special the past several seasons. And on a run-heavy Texans team, he just never racks up too many catches or yards. Rudolph scored nine touchdowns on just 53 catches. Touchdowns are year in and year out very inconsistent and hard to predict (Calvin Johnson has scored 4, 12, 5, 12, 16, and 5 TD's over the years). So one simply cannot count on another year like this from Rudolph. It is much more likely that he replicates his mediocre catches and yardage than his elite touchdown output. Olsen and Myers would both be suited better as a number two option but have found themselves in the top ten. And Gates has fallen off the map the last several years.

Who I want the most: None of them really... But I'll take my chances on Gates. He's old. And partially washed up. But I'm anticipating that Philip Rivers will rebound with the Mike McCoy led offense. A hopefully improved offensive line and gloves should benefit Rivers. Gloves you say? Without gloves last season, Rivers threw 18 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. With gloves for four games, Rivers posted eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. And I expect these new changes to benefit not only Rivers but also Gates.

Tier 4: Who Knows?

11. Jermichael Finley (ADP 126.2)

12. Martellus Bennett (ADP 130.9)

13. Jared Cook (ADP 121.2)

14. Tyler Eifert (ADP 145.0)

15. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP 137.0)

16. Fred Davis (ADP 141.6)

17. Dustin Keller (ADP 145.5)

Besides Eifert, most of the guys here have been disappointments at some time. Finley is a perennial bust, Pettigrew is a drop and fumble machine, Davis is an injury machine, the once solid Keller is now an undersized and under-performing tight end, and Cook, like Finley, does not live up to his potential. Eifert clearly has the highest upside here but will also play alongside Jermaine Gresham who will get his fair share of catches.

Who I want the most: Sadly, it is Jermichael Finley. And believe me, it is not because I am a Packers fan. Of all the Packers players, Finley represents the organization the worst and is probably the most yelled-at player on the team. But with Greg Jennings out of the picture, Finley might finally put something together. And believe it or not, Finley has some of the best hands on the team. Now I know that is hard to believe. His issues have actually been more about his lack of mental focus and inability to catch in traffic than his actual catching ability. But with more targets presumably and a newly-found focus, Finley might finally make a splash.

Tier 5: Sleeper Zone

18. Jake Ballard (ADP 170.0)

19. Coby Fleener (ADP 144.2)

20. Jermaine Gresham (ADP 142.6)

21. Jordan Cameron (ADP 170.0)

22. Tim Tebow (ADP N/A)

After putting Tebow in the running back tiers as a joke, this is a joke that could possibly become true (although still unlikely he would actually gain tight end eligibility). Ballard has the most potential here as he should take over for Aaron Hernandez. Fleener and Cameron both have great potential for their air attacks. And Greshman is in fantasy limbo as he went from a borderline top ten option to a fantasy outcast.

Who I want the most: I'll take Ballard. Before he tore up his knee last season, he put together a very solid rookie year in New York. He's got great size, okay hands and okay speed. With limited options in New England, it would be a bargain if he can put up numbers anything close to Hernandez's numbers. But keep an eye on former basketball player Jordan Cameron who has all the athleticism that would scream NFL tight end. He's got a long way to go to become a complete NFL player but could surprise.

And here is your consistency chart. As you can see, not too many scored in the double digits. And I chose 6+ games as a benchmark because the top ten tight ends all averaged at least six points per game.

Name	Double Digit Games	6+ games
Rob Gronkowski	7/11 (5 injured)	9
Jimmy Graham	6	11
Jason Witten	5	9
Tony Gonzalez	7	9
Vernon Davis	5	5
Owen Daniels	4	7
Antonio Gates	4	6
Kyle Rudolph	5	9
Greg Olsen	4	5
Brandon Myers	3	6
Jermichael Finley	2	7
Martellus Bennett	4	6
Jared Cook	1	5
Tyler Eifert	N/A	N/A
Brandon Pettigrew	1	6
Fred Davis	0 (played 7 games)	2
Dustin Keller	2 (played 8 games)	3
Jake Ballard (2011)	3 (played 14 games)	5
Coby Fleener	0	3
Jermaine Gresham	4	9
Jordan Cameron	0	1
Tim Tebow	0	0
Nate Amodio	0	0

2013 Running Back Tiers and Consistencies

Welcome back, old school fantasy football days. The rave of quarterbacks in the first round is (or should be) over. Back are the days of a first round that should consist of all running backs and maybe one or two wide receivers. As you've read in my previous articles, the quarterback pool is deeper than JaMarcus Russell's previous gut. R.I.P Russell's belly. So running backs are the way to go and it is a necessity to draft if not one, but two or three in the first four rounds this year.

Not only is there a ridiculously deep quarterback class but the wide receiver pool is just as deep too. Greg Jennings and Cecil Shorts ranked 29th and 30th? Gimme dat value! So while you can wait for your quarterback and wide receivers, stock up on running backs this year. After the top ten to twelve running backs, it is an absolute crap shoot. How's a running back who has never played more than 13 games in a season sound? Or a guy who once ran for 2,000 yards and has yet to come anywhere close since? Or a man who held out then was injured for most of last season? Trust me, it's not good. Just ask the guy who ended up with Vick Ballard and Eddie Lacy as his starters in my first mock draft. I still cringe thinking of that.

So get your running backs. Get five or six of them and pray that two of them will turn out alright. Remember, the gap between the 1st running back and the 20th is typically around 200 points. The difference between the 1st and 10th quarterback was 74 points. The difference between the 1st and 20th wide receiver was 89 last year. Do the math. You can miss out on elite wide receivers and still be alright. You can get Tony Romo in the 10th round and be just fine. But if you wait on a running back, you might just have Ballard and Lacy. Don't wait. At last, here are the 2013 tiers.

Tier 1: The Elite

1. Adrian Peterson (ADP 1.2)

2. Arian Foster (ADP 2.4)

This is the most straight forward you can get. If you pick first or second, you will get either Peterson or Foster. And while the odds are against Peterson to replicate last season, both are clearly above the rest.

Who I want the most: Peterson. Not even a question. He really could be his own tier.

Tier 2: The Near Elite

3. Marshawn Lynch (ADP 4.0)

4. Doug Martin (ADP 5.5)

5. Ray Rice (ADP 5.5)

Lynch has proven himself over the past two seasons, Rice over the past four, and Martin, as I predicted, killed it last year. None of them have to worry about a running back committee (although Bernard Pierce will get his fair share) and all should remain top five options. No matter which one you pick, just know that they, Beast Mode, Muscle Hamster, and Little Ray boast some of the better nicknames.

Who I want the most: If you are going for year in and year out consistency then Rice is your guy. But Marshawn Lynch is second in rushing yards and third in touchdowns over the past two seasons. He should be your guy here. Seattle is committed to running the ball and Lynch will remain the center of their offense. The Muscle Hamster's stats are a bit skewed by his two monstrous games and Rice may have just enough carries taken away that Lynch should outshine them both this season.

Tier 3: The Rock Solid

6. Jamal Charles (ADP 7.1)

7. C.J. Spiller (ADP (9.3)

8. LeSean McCoy (ADP 12.7)

The rock solid backs here might just be the speediest backs in the game. Charles will get a boost with Andy Reid as his new head coach and a stable quarterback in Alex Smith. And Spiller, despite limited touches, had over 1,700 total yards and a ridiculous 6.0 yards per carry. With Fred Jackson often injured, Spiller is finally the main main in Buffalo and will get plenty of touches this year. I have McCoy higher than most people but think he is bound for a comeback season. After injuries and Andy Reid not feeding him the ball enough, McCoy can only get better. The Eagles drafted Lane Johnson to bolster and accommodate a fast paced offense. So behind Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense and a revamped line, McCoy should be able to return to his 2011 form.

Who I want the most: This is a tough on but I'll take Charles. Charles is still the most proven and has just as much explosiveness as the other guys here. And imagine what having a real NFL quarterback will do for Charles. I am expecting big things this season.

Tier 4: The Borderline 1's

9. Trent Richardson (ADP 9.9)

10. Steven Jackson (ADP 16.8)

11. Alfred Morris (ADP 10.6)

12. Stevan Ridley (ADP 20.8)

Richardson has the most upside here but is the most injured of the bunch. Jackson has been a rock with eight consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. Despite his age, he should be an upgrade over Michael Turner and he brings his pass-catching ability to the Falcon's passing attack. Morris surprised just about everyone as coach Mike Shanahan finally chose just one guy to carry the rock. But will he do it again? Ridley figures to be featured more with the New England offense that has lost Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and possibly Rob Gronkowski. Expect Ridley to be relied on in New England. And over the past three seasons, New England has the most rushes inside the 10 yard line. Get it, Ridley.

Who I want the most: Do I dare say Steven Jackson? He's still a workhorse and does not have as many question marks as the others. But Richardson is the obvious stud here. If the Browns vertical passing scheme really takes hold, expect Richardson to have plenty of room to run. But fantasy football is about minimizing your risk while still getting productivity. So I'll take Jackson.

Tier 5: The Question Marks

13. Matt Forte (ADP 18.9)

14. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP 26.8)

15. Frank Gore (ADP 23.4)

All these guys have great track records. But the future for all of them is up in the air. Forte, while solid when healthy, has missed six games in the past two seasons. Jones-Drew's holdout and injured season raises many questions marks. Fortunately, he is still just 27 and is in a contract year. And Frank Gore is getting more and more limited in carries (just five games with 20+ carries). He also has a crowded backfield in San Francisco. 

Who I want the most: As a Packers fan it pains me to say Matt Forte. Gore has held steady but is due for more of a decline and MJD is just so uncertain at the point. Forte and the Bears' steadily improving offense should provide plenty of fantasy points.

Tier 6: The Oh Boy I Have to Take One of These Guys?

16. Chris Johnson (ADP 24.6)

17. Darren McFadden (ADP 35.8)

18. DeMarco Murray (ADP 42.2)

19. Darren Sproles(ADP 44.2)

20. Reggie Bush (ADP 46.6)

Questions marks all over the place. Can CJ2K regain his 2,000 yard season form? Can McFadden last more than 13 games? Can Murray stay on the field? Will Sproles get enough touches in the crowded Saints backfield? Can Bush put up a quality season in Detroit?

Who I want the most: Can I say none? If it's a PPR league, it's obviously Sproles. If it's a standard league, well... The Raiders, whose zone blocking scheme did not fit McFadden, are switching back to a favorable power run scheme. Bush could shine but also disappears often. And the odds of Murray staying healthy are slim. So I'll take my chances on McFadden. Just know that none of these options are safe. None of them.

Tier 7: Can We Just Draft a Quarterback Now?

21. Le'Veon Bell (ADP 66.3)

22. David Wilson (ADP 37.3)

23. Montee Ball (ADP 40.1)

24. Lamar Miller (ADP 59.8)

25. Chris Ivory (ADP 57.7)

Two rookies, two second year players, and a guy with 256 career carries. At least Ball and Bell figure to be the main guys on their teams. Wilson and Miller even have the chance to be the unquestioned starter. So maybe it is not that bad. Wilson has Spiller-like potential, Ball will take over for long-gone Willis McGahee and injury-prone Knowshon Moreno, and Bell figures to replace the horrid combo of Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer. And Ivory has a chance to bring his career 5.1 yards per carry average (on just 256 carries) to the pitiful New York Jets.

Who I want the most: I'll take Bell. He will be good value by the time you pick him and could put up Rashard Mendenhall hay day numbers.

Tier 8: Dear God, We're Still Going

26. Ryan Mathews (ADP 61.6)

27. Benjarvus Green-Ellis (ADP 70.9)

28. Eddie Lacy (ADP 56.5)

29. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP 72.0)

30. Shane Vereen (ADP 86.7)

Bonus. Tim Tebow

Mathews has been a major disappointment with more broken collarbones than touchdowns last year. BGE is a slow, non-feature back and has competition with rookie Gio Bernard. Lacy could gather lots of touchdowns but is in a crowded backfield with Alex Green, DuJuan Harris, and Jonathan Franklin all in the picture. Bradshaw has Vick Ballrd and injuries to deal with. And Vereen should at least be relevant as he should take Danny Woodhead's touches.

Who I want the most: Mathews still has the highest upside here. But if Lacy wins the starting job outright, I'll take him. He could compile many of Aaron Rodger's short touchdown runs and passes and even John Kuhn's touchdowns. Lacy may not quite run for 1,000 yards, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 10 touchdowns. Just take that with a grain of salt as that number could also be 0. And you can't go wrong with Tebow. I hear the Canadian Football League has started online fantasy leagues. Oh wait, the Patriots signed him?

So there you have it. Have fun and get the aspirin ready for your running back situations. To help you out some more, here's a nice chart I made of the top running backs. It's pretty self explanatory but lets you see their consistency and ceiling based on last year's stats.

Name	Double Digit Games	20+ games
Adrian Peterson	13	8
Arian Foster	14	4
Marshawn Lynch	11	4
Doug Martin	12	3
Ray Rice	11	4
Jamal Charles	9	3
CJ Spiller	12	2
LeSean McCoy	10/12 (4 injured)	0
Trent Richardson	11/15 (1 injured)	1
Steven Jackson	7	0
Alfred Morris	12	3
Stevan Ridley	9	2
Matt Forte	9/15 (1 injured)	1
Maurice Jones-Drew	2/6 (9 injured)	1
Frank Gore	11	0
Chris Johnson	9	1
Darren McFadden	6/12 (4 injured)	0
DeMarco Murray	5/10 (6 injured)	0
Darren Sproles	9/13 (3 injured)	0
Chris Ivory	2/6 (10 no carries)	0
Reggie Bush	7	2
David Wilson	2/3 (with 10+ carries)	1
Montee Ball	N/A	N/A
Lamar Miller	1/2 (with 10 carries)	0
Le'Veon Bell	N/A	N/A
Ryan Mathews	1/12 (4 injured)	0
Benjarvus Green-Ellis	7/15 (1 DNP)	0
Eddie Lacy	N/A	N/A
Ahmad Bradshaw	7/15 (1 injured)	2
Shane Vereen	2/2 (with 10+ carries)	0
Tim Tebow	0	0

2013 Quarterback Tiers

Tiers tiers tiers. Of the past ten years I've been playing fantasy football, this could be the least useful year for quarterback tiers. Why you say? Because you could clump them up into a tier of twelve and say boom. There's a tier. As I've said before, the quarterback class is so deep that you can wait till the seventh round to draft one and be set. To get a more general overview of the quarterbacks this year, check out my previous article.

But that doesn't mean this is a complete waste of time. Knowing about what rounds you should target the different tiers and also figuring out your preferences among each tier is key. Also, doing mock drafts and knowing each player's average draft position is vital to getting the players you want. For this, the rounds I place each tier is where they should be drafted. The average draft position is based on ESPN drafts and is where they are being drafted (keep in mind it will vary from website to website and that needs to factor in to your draft).

Rounds 2-3: The Super Elite

1. Aaron Rodgers (ADP 9.9)

2. Drew Brees (ADP 14.3)

This is pretty straightforward. Since 2009, these guys have finished right next to each other at 1st and 2nd three times. And since 2009, neither has finished outside the top six quarterbacks. They are benchmarks for consistency and durability. You cannot go wrong with either of them. But no, I would not take either in the first round. Not this year folks.

Who I want the most: Who do you think? I want my boy the all-time passer rating leader. But actually, I'd prefer Brees here. You can get Brees slightly later than Rodgers (ADP 9.9 vs 14.3) and simply put, some fool is probably going to take Rodgers in the first anyway. Yet the biggest reasons I have for Brees is that Sean Payton is back and the possible emergence of a running game in Green Bay. We all know the chemistry Brees has with Payton and I expected the duo to replicate and improve upon last season. And with offensive line changes and high potential running backs in Green Bay, I expect Rodgers' yardage and touchdowns to be cut in to. I especially expect declines in Rodgers' own rushing stats in which he has averaged 279 yards and 3.6 touchdowns per season. While those aren't great by any means, they are usually what put him over the top of Brees and Tom Brady.

Rounds 3-5: The Elite

3. Peyton Manning (ADP 21.6)

4. Tom Brady (ADP 18.7)

5. Cam Newton (ADP 29.3)

First off, let me remind you that in a typical league, there's no way you'll get any of these guys in the fifth. But, you should be able to. People just don't get it. In the first ESPN experts mock draft, Brady and Manning went in the fourth while Newton went in the fifth. I highly doubt the people you play with will be that smart and patient. Nonetheless, as I said, wait, and reap the benefits.

As you can see, there are still no question marks in this deep quarterback class. Cam has ended any doubt that he could be the same QB he was as a rookie, Manning is back to full health and robot-like precision, and Brady is still Brady. I would take Manning over Brady simply because of all years where we've seen Brady's options, this could be the worst. With virtually no receivers besides the still unproven Danny Amendola, Brady will lean heavily on Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, both of whom have had their fair share of injuries (and in Hernandez's case, an arrest warrant).

Who I want the most: Despite the addition of Wes Welker in Denever, I'll actually take Cam here. While I do think Manning will have the better season, I don't think it will be that much better than Cam's. I mainly prefer Cam here because of the draft value and hopes to get him (realistically) in the fourth. As for Brady, just remember that he is still Brady. No matter who his receivers are, you can expect Brady to be Brady. Did I say that enough? Brady will be Brady. 

Rounds 4-7: The Up and Coming

6. Robert Griffin III (ADP 56.5) (Pending injury updates)

7. Matt Ryan (ADP 41.3)

8. Colin Kaepernick (ADP 43.7)

9. Russell Wilson (ADP 49.9)

A tier with three running sons of guns. But hear this folks, whether or not the read option sticks, they are changing the way the game is being played right now. Matt Ryan here is the only truly proven one here, but that doesn't mean I would trust the other three any less. But those three guys are the only ones I would even consider drafting a backup for. Because they run so much and are thus vulnerable to injuries, a backup could be worth it. But if you take anyone besides RGIII, Kaepernick, or Wilson please, please do not draft a backup. You don't need one.

Who I want the most: Matt Ryan. Tony Gonzalez is back and the addition of Steven Jackson gives the Falcons a running back who will play a role in their passing attack. Ryan finished seventh among QB's last year and has a chance to finally crack the top five this year. I trust him most of those not in the top five and expect big things as the Falcons are once again loaded in weapons.

Rounds 7-10: The Value Starters

10. Matt Stafford (ADP 64.4)

11. Tony Romo (ADP 80.5)

12. Andrew Luck (ADP 71.0)

These are the guys I'm targeting. They finished 11th, 9th, and 8th respectively and all are in a position to improve on that. You cannot go wrong with any of these and drafting one as your starter and it will allow you to have the stock up and running backs (and wide receivers). 

And for those of you who are thinking you might want to take one as your backup before I get my starter? Think again. Remember how last year worked when THREE people took backups before I got my eventual starting quarterback? Yeah, take a look at my championship belt why don't you. And do you really want to waste a roster spot on a quarterback who will never start over a top five QB? Or just give you headaches about which of your two QB's you want to start? And I have asked enough leading questions to make you never even ponder this decision again?

Who I want the most: Matt Stafford. Despite struggles last year, he still put together a solid season. While it was a far cry from his 2011 breakout campaign, I expect him to rebound. While he may not throw over 700 times this year, the additions of Reggie Bush and a slightly improved line can only help. And he's still got that guy Calvin Johnson. That helps too. And you can't go wrong with Romo either. Just because he can't win big games does not mean he is not a good fantasy option.

Rounds 11-16: The Rest

13. Eli Manning (ADP 92.9)

14. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 104.7)

15. Michael Vick (ADP 119.5)

16. Joe Flacco (ADP 112.9)

17. Philip Rivers (ADP 137.0)

18. Andy Dalton (ADP 131.0)

19. Sam Bradford (ADP 133.0)

20. Jay Cutler (ADP 137.4)

21. Matt Schaub (ADP 127.5)

22. Alex Smith (ADP 145.1)

23. Josh Freeman (ADP 136.7)

24. Carson Palmer (ADP 139.8)

25. Ryan Tannehill (ADP 145.1)

105. Tim Tebow (ADP N/A)

106. JaMarcus Russell (ADP N/A)

Time be blunt. None of the guys outside the top fifteen should be drafted. Don't waste a roster spot for a guy who won't be used. So. Pick up Eli for bye weeks. Keep a close eye on Vick in Kelly's new offense. Monitor Rivers to see if he can regain old form. And if he performs like he did with gloves on, perhaps he will. Monitor Palmer solely for his impact on Larry Fitzgerald. Watch Big Ben and Flacco. Watch Cutler to see what a grown baby looks like. Watch Tim Tebow warm up seats for Brady. And watch to see if JaMarcus can regain his eating form. It looks like he took some time off from that. And use the all of them as very solid bye week replacements. Boom.

Torn Hammy = Mock Draft Time!

Well, when you have a torn hamstring, you're usually pretty limited in what you can do. So my typical day this summer includes: reading dat Bible and spending time with God, NBA 2k, eating, sleeping, icing, anti-inflammatory drugs, getting surprise visits from girlfriend, and upper body lifting. And, of course, fantasy football mock drafts.

Like many other mock drafts, I wish this could be my real team. It's loaded at RB/WR. Absolutely loaded. And when you get Tony Romo in the 9th round, you can't help but feel giddy. If only people didn't take RGIII and Matt Stafford right before me as their backups! Then I would feel more like this.
So here's my roster:
QB: Tony Romo
RB: C.J. Spiller, Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush, Jacquizz Rodgers
WR: Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, Eric Decker
TE: Owen Daniels
K: Doesn't Matter
DST: Packers

So here's how the draft went. I would quantify the draft as having three idiotic boneheads because they took kickers in a round other than the last. But that's just my opinion.

And other than that, have a look. See my key points right after the draft summary. Feel free to comment and let me know how you think I did. Did I blow a pick? Did I wait too long on a quarterback? Am I hyping up this draft too much? Am I being unreasonable with money picks and terrible picks?

Red = Terrible pick (mostly based on value)
Green = Money pick
Blue = Questionable pick
Bold = My picks

Round: 1 (1) Team Crawford - Adrian Peterson RB (2) Team Deckelman - Arian Foster RB (3) Team Cacciotti - Doug Martin RB (4) Team Rodriguez - Marshawn Lynch RB (5) Team Jones - Ray Rice RB (6) Team lamborn - Jamaal Charles RB ** (7) Team amodio - C.J. Spiller RB (8) Team Easley - Trent Richardson RB (9) Team Palasky - Calvin Johnson WR (10) Team thomas - LeSean McCoy RB	Round: 2 (11) Team thomas - Steven Jackson RB (12) Team Palasky - A.J. Green WR (13) Team Easley - Dez Bryant WR ** (14) Team amodio - Alfred Morris RB (15) Team lamborn - Aaron Rodgers QB (16) Team Jones - Drew Brees QB (17) Team Rodriguez - Matt Forte RB (18) Team Cacciotti - Brandon Marshall WR (19) Team Deckelman - Frank Gore RB (20) Team Crawford - Peyton Manning QB
Round: 3 (21) Team Crawford - Demaryius Thomas WR (22) Team Deckelman - Julio Jones WR (23) Team Cacciotti - Chris Johnson RB (24) Team Rodriguez - Tom Brady QB (25) Team Jones - Maurice Jones-Drew RB (26) Team lamborn - Stevan Ridley RB ** (27) Team amodio - Percy Harvin WR (28) Team Easley - Cam Newton QB (29) Team Palasky - Jimmy Graham TE (30) Team thomas - David Wilson RB	Round: 4 (31) Team thomas - Darren McFadden RB (32) Team Palasky - Larry Fitzgerald WR (33) Team Easley - Darren Sproles RB ** (34) Team amodio - Randall Cobb WR (35) Team lamborn - Roddy White WR (36) Team Jones - Montee Ball RB (37) Team Rodriguez - Andre Johnson WR (38) Team Cacciotti - Vincent Jackson WR (39) Team Deckelman - Wes Welker WR (40) Team Crawford - Victor Cruz WR
Round: 5 (41) Team Crawford - Rob Gronkowski TE (42) Team Deckelman - Colin Kaepernick QB (43) Team Cacciotti - DeMarco Murray RB (44) Team Rodriguez - Marques Colston WR (45) Team Jones - Aaron Hernandez TE (46) Team lamborn - Reggie Wayne WR ** (47) Team amodio - Reggie Bush RB (48) Team Easley - Danny Amendola WR (49) Team Palasky - Vick Ballard RB (50) Team thomas - Mike Wallace WR	Round: 6 (51) Team thomas - Dwayne Bowe WR (52) Team Palasky - Eddie Lacy RB (53) Team Easley - Chris Ivory RB ** (54) Team amodio - Hakeem Nicks WR (55) Team lamborn - Ryan Mathews RB (56) Team Jones - Jordy Nelson WR (57) Team Rodriguez - Antonio Brown WR (58) Team Cacciotti - Matt Ryan QB (59) Team Deckelman - Vernon Davis TE (60) Team Crawford - Michael Crabtree WR
Round: 7 (61) Team Crawford - Russell Wilson QB (62) Team Deckelman - Lamar Miller RB (63) Team Cacciotti - Jason Witten TE (64) Team Rodriguez - Tony Gonzalez TE (65) Team Jones - Torrey Smith WR (66) Team lamborn - Steve Smith WR ** (67) Team amodio - Eric Decker WR (68) Team Easley - Isaiah Pead RB (69) Team Palasky - BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB (70) Team thomas - Tavon Austin WR	Round: 8 (71) Team thomas - T.Y. Hilton WR (72) Team Palasky - Le'Veon Bell RB (73) Team Easley - Josh Gordon WR ** (74) Team amodio - Greg Jennings WR (75) Team lamborn - Giovani Bernard RB (76) Team Jones - DeSean Jackson WR (77) Team Rodriguez - Pierre Garcon WR (78) Team Cacciotti - 49ers D/ST D/ST (79) Team Deckelman - Seahawks D/ST D/ST (80) Team Crawford - Rashard Mendenhall RB
Round: 9 (81) Team Crawford - Robert Griffin III QB (82) Team Deckelman - Andrew Luck QB (83) Team Cacciotti - Steve Johnson WR (84) Team Rodriguez - Johnathan Franklin RB (85) Team Jones - Matthew Stafford QB (86) Team lamborn - Dennis Pitta TE ** (87) Team amodio - Tony Romo QB (88) Team Easley - Kenny Britt WR (89) Team Palasky - Danario Alexander WR (90) Team thomas - Ryan Williams RB	Round: 10 (91) Team thomas - Carson Palmer QB (92) Team Palasky - Eli Manning QB (93) Team Easley - Shane Vereen RB ** (94) Team amodio - Andre Brown RB (95) Team lamborn - James Jones WR (96) Team Jones - Bryce Brown RB (97) Team Rodriguez - Miles Austin WR (98) Team Cacciotti - Mark Ingram RB (99) Team Deckelman - Cecil Shorts WR (100) Team Crawford - Jonathan Stewart RB
Round: 11 (101) Team Crawford - Kyle Rudolph TE (102) Team Deckelman - Greg Olsen TE (103) Team Cacciotti - Anquan Boldin WR (104) Team Rodriguez - Mikel Leshoure RB (105) Team Jones - Texans D/ST D/ST (106) Team lamborn - Mike Williams WR ** (107) Team amodio - Owen Daniels TE (108) Team Easley - Jared Cook TE (109) Team Palasky - Bears D/ST D/ST (110) Team thomas - Jermichael Finley TE	Round: 12 (111) Team thomas - Lance Moore WR (112) Team Palasky - Sidney Rice WR (113) Team Easley - Michael Vick QB ** (114) Team amodio - Jeremy Maclin WR (115) Team lamborn - Ben Roethlisberger QB (116) Team Jones - Ben Tate RB (117) Team Rodriguez - Broncos D/ST D/ST (118) Team Cacciotti - Stephen Gostkowski K (119) Team Deckelman - Bernard Pierce RB (120) Team Crawford - Ahmad Bradshaw RB
Round: 13 (121) Team Crawford - Antonio Gates TE (122) Team Deckelman - Blair Walsh K (123) Team Cacciotti - Brandon Myers TE (124) Team Rodriguez - Fred Jackson RB (125) Team Jones - LaMichael James RB (126) Team lamborn - Emmanuel Sanders WR ** (127) Team amodio - Denarius Moore WR (128) Team Easley - Joe Flacco QB (129) Team Palasky - DeAngelo Williams RB (130) Team thomas - Chris Givens WR	Round: 14 (131) Team thomas - Brandon Lloyd WR (132) Team Palasky - Michael Bush RB (133) Team Easley - Kendall Wright WR ** (134) Team amodio - Jacquizz Rodgers RB (135) Team lamborn - Bengals D/ST D/ST (136) Team Jones - Matt Prater K (137) Team Rodriguez - DeAndre Hopkins WR (138) Team Cacciotti - Andy Dalton QB (139) Team Deckelman - Alshon Jeffery WR (140) Team Crawford - Patriots D/ST D/ST
Round: 15 (141) Team Crawford - Mike Goodson RB (142) Team Deckelman - Martellus Bennett TE (143) Team Cacciotti - Daryl Richardson RB (144) Team Rodriguez - Sam Bradford QB (145) Team Jones - Shonn Greene RB (146) Team lamborn - Malcom Floyd WR ** (147) Team amodio - Packers D/ST D/ST (148) Team Easley - Steelers D/ST D/ST (149) Team Palasky - Brian Hartline WR (150) Team thomas - Browns D/ST D/ST	Round: 16 (151) Team thomas - Matt Bryant K (152) Team Palasky - Justin Tucker K (153) Team Easley - Phil Dawson K ** (154) Team amodio - Sebastian Janikowski K (155) Team lamborn - Randy Bullock K (156) Team Jones - Kenjon Barner RB (157) Team Rodriguez - Josh Brown K (158) Team Cacciotti - Cowboys D/ST D/ST (159) Team Deckelman - Andre Roberts WR (160) Team Crawford - David Akers K

• Clearly, you can wait on quarterbacks. But take a look at teams Amodio, Thomas, and Palasky who wisely waited. In a typical draft, they would've had their choice of Luck, Stafford, Romo, or RGIII. Unfortunately, a couple teams  for some reason took backup QB's leaving Amodio with the last of the big 12. So here's the main takeaway: You can wait till the 9th round to get a darn good starting quarterback. But don't push it or you may end up with Eli Manning.
• Any quarterback after the 5th round to me is money. Any top 12 QB in the 7-9th rounds? Big money. As I said before, this year is DEEP.
• People still think there is a reason to take a kicker before the last round. It is beyond me why that belief is still in people's heads.
• Two defenses went in round eight. Too early. Two defenses went in round 11. Just right.
• Besides the top 10-12 running backs, it really is a crapshoot. Just ask the guy who got Vick Ballard and Eddie Lacy as his starting running backs. I'm going to have nightmares just thinking about that.
• You basically need two running backs in the first three rounds or that guy could be you. Even the guy with Adrian Peterson. Say hello to Rashard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart as your compliment.
• After getting Spiller and Morris I was going to take Ridley if he fell. Can't have too many running backs this year. Unfortunately, he was taken one spot ahead.
• Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have an argument to go in the second round. Peyton Manning nor any other quarterback does.
• Montee Ball in the fourth round? I guess...
• Not only are the QBs deep but so are the WRs. Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, and Eric Decker in rounds 6,7 and 8? Gimme dat. They'll fit nicely behind my two top 10 wideouts Harvin and Cobb.
• I expect RGIII's draft status to change drastically as more is found out about his injury status.
• "Maybe this is the year Jermichael Finley breaks out," said countless people the last three years. Perhaps now people are finally saying, "Maybe this is the year Finley finally goes undrafted." Well, round 11. Still not a worthwhile pick.
• No Tebow? But he seems guaranteed to put up at least one touchdown with the Montreal Alouettes.
• And where's JaMarcus? I heard he "slimmed down" to "just" 265 pounds.

2013 Quarterback Overview

While last year had a plethora of quarterbacks going in the first two rounds, this upcoming season should be vastly different. The league has become extremely pass happy and non-committee running backs are a dime a dozen. In large part, the running back position has the steepest drop-off after the elites and is hands down the shallowest of any position. And this past year, 23 quarterbacks scored more than 200 points (in 6 point per passing touchdown leagues), the most ever to do so. It is ridiculously deep at the quarterback position this year.

The quarterback position is so deep that I would be reluctant to take a quarterback in the first twenty picks! Although I can guarantee that someone will take Aaron Rodgers in the first round, it shouldn't happen. To give you an idea of what can happen, Matt Ryan has been going as late as the ninth round in the mock drafts. So please, fellow fantasy footballers, WAIT! Be patient. Let the draft come to you. Don't start a quarterback run. And if there is one, WAIT! Just because Cam Newton is available in the fourth round does not mean he's the best pick available given the scarcity of running backs. On the other hand, if there is a running back run, you better snatch one up otherwise you might be looking at a tandem of Chris Ivory and Reggie Bush. Yuck.

And to those in my league (which I won) last year who started taking backups in the 8th round. WAIT. Please. Freaking. Wait. Last year, by the time people were taking unnecessary backups, I was taking my starter, Robert Griffin III. Obviously in hindsight it was a great pick. But at the time, it was a scrambling, never-racking pick. And while last year there was a risk to wait that long, this year you can be making bank by waiting that long.

Let me re-iterate: This is the year to wait. If you don't get Aaron Rodgers, so what? Get Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, even Colin Kaepernick after the fifth round. Tony Romo is the 12th ranked quarterback in ESPN and my rankings. In a 10 team league that means he is a backup! Wait. Heck, in a twelve team league I bet you can get Matt Stafford as your backup if want to be "that guy".

Here's another thing. You hardly need a backup quarterback unless you draft Griffin (the ACL concerns). With guys like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, etc all outside the top 12, you don't need to waste a roster spot when you can just pick one up later. Let me just sternly say: If you draft either Rodgers, Brady, Brees, or Manning and then proceed to draft a backup QB, you are most certainly wasting a roster spot.

So finally, WAIT. WAIT on a quarterback likes it's your girlfriend trying on every dress imaginable. You know she'll find the right one eventually, even if it takes three hours.

Do some mock drafts to see where your favorite quarterbacks are going. Suppose you like Russell Wilson higher than most. Don't rush to take him. Do a mock draft and see if you can get him in the sixth or seventh round. Or maybe you like Matt Stafford to bounce back or maybe you're just fine with any of the QB's from the five to twelve range. Then try mock drafts and push it to see how long you can wait on a number one quarterback. And if you are in a "standard" 4 point per passing touchdown league, really, really wait. If it is a 6 point per any touchdown league, still wait (but perhaps not quite as long).

And alas. Here are my consistency rankings based on last year's stats. You can find two seasons ago here. Keep in mind the percentage on the right is for percentage of "Great" games. So for instance, Rodgers was great in 9 out of 16 or 56.25% of his games last season. But it's important to note that he was still a worthy start in 75% of his games (add the 3 "Start" games to the 9 "Great" or better games).

	Freak	Stud	Great	Start	Dud
Player (last year's rank)	35	25	20	15	<15	Inj/Sit	% Great
Rodgers (2)	4	5	0	3	4	0	56.25
Brees (1)	6	4	2	3	1	0	75.00
P. Manning (4)	0	10	2	2	2	0	75.00
Brady (3)	4	2	6	3	1	0	75.00
Ryan (5)	2	5	3	2	4	0	62.50
Newton (6)	2	3	4	2	5	0	56.25
Griffin III (7)	3	4	1	4	3	1	53.33
Wilson (9)*	1	5	2	2	6	0	50.00
Romo (8)	1	4	3	4	4	0	50.00
Stafford (11)	1	2	4	5	4	0	43.75
Kaepernick (25)	0	1	3	3	1	8	50.00
Luck (10)	1	3	2	7	3	0	37.50
E. Manning (14)	1	4	1	3	7	0	37.50
Roethlisberger (16)	1	2	3	5	2	3	46.15
Vick (27)	0	1	1	5	3	6	20.00
Flacco (15)	1	1	5	2	7	0	43.75
Rivers (20)	0	3	1	7	5	0	25.00
Dalton (12)	0	7	0	2	7	0	43.75
Bradford (18)	0	2	2	4	8	0	25.00
Freeman (13)	1	3	3	3	6	0	43.75
Palmer (19)	1	0	5	5	4	1	40.00
Cutler (23)	0	1	4	2	8	1	33.33
Tannehill (24)	0	1	3	3	9	0	25.00
Smith (29)	0	2	2	0	5	7	44.44
Tebow (CFL)	It's	Tee	Bow	Time	in	Can	ada?

All stats here based on 1 point per 25 passing yards, 1 point per 10 rushing yards, and 6 points per touchdown.

*Five of Wilson's six duds came in the first seven games. He finished the year with just one dud in his last nine games.

So here are some main takeaways from last year's stats (also in comparison to two years ago). And here are last year's rankings for you to compare.

• Aaron Rodgers "Great" percentage is a far cry from last year's perfect percentage. But even with the lowest percentage among the top five, he finished in the top 3 for the fifth year in a row.
• Over the past two years, Drew Brees has been the most consistent quarterback. And now Sean Payton is coming back. Sheesh.
• How right was I about Eli Manning? Very right. Expect more inconsistent play from him. For the past two years, he has had the most duds among the top 15 quarterbacks. He's not worthy of a starting spot in any league with 12 or fewer owners.
• Of my top ten, Peyton Manning was the only one who did not register a freak game. I expect that to change this year with the best receiving corps in football. Sorry to my Packers fans out there.
• There were 30 freak games this past season in comparison to just 18 last year. Can I emphasize what a passing league this has become? And just how deep the quarterback pool is this year.
• Andy Dalton tied for fourth in games with 25 or more points. He was also tied for fourth in games with 15 or less points.
• While Luck does not have a high percentage of great games, he was startable in 13 of 16 games.

Now. With all this in mind, get it! Be patient. Have fun. And stock up on running backs and wide receivers while your opponents take quarterbacks way too early.