Monday, July 25, 2011

2011 Fantasy RB Tiers

1-3: Best of the Best: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster
       Player I want most: Adrian Peterson: For the past four years, he has been in the top 5 despite not ever being number 1. Even with his quarterback situation, he has never been hurt by the likes of poor quarterbacks like Tavaris Jackson so I expect more greatness from All Day.
       All of the 3 RB's here have a case to be number one and you can't go wrong with any with the exception of Foster. When it was found out Foster played all last season with a knee injury, it made his season that more incredible. Still, after just one season, he is the least proven of the three and will find it hard to match last season's numbers.

4-7: Elite: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice
       Player I want most: Jamaal Charles. He has the freshest legs of any and has an electrifying 6.0 yards per carry for his CAREER.  
       In PPR leagues, these guys are studs as they are great out of the backfield. I would elevate McCoy to 4th overall because he is bound to have lots of catches from Vick. Once again, these four are all fairly proven and have solid upside.  The only concern here is with MJD and his injuries. But if healthy, you can expect around 1,600 yards and 8-10 TD's.

8-10: Rock Solid: Rashard Mendehall, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson
       Player I want most: Steven Jackson. Often a late 1st rounder, Jackson is a mark of consistency and is unchallenged at the running back position in St. Louis. And in PPR leagues, he goes ahead of Mendenhall and Turner. Despite a career low in yards per carry for Jackson, I'll take him anytime.
       Michael Turner is my next favorite here as the Falcons constantly pound the ball with him.  Mendenhall averaged just 3.9 yards a carry last year, but his 12 TD's more than made up for it.  Why do I rank Mendenhall ahead of both then? His upside is higher and unlike Jackson and Turner, he is far from age 30. 

11-13: The Iffy Good: Frank Gore, Peyton Hillis, Darren McFadden
       Player I want most: Peyton Hillis. Why? He's white. 
       All kidding aside, I do not trust McFadden and every year Gore seems to be hurt. Nonetheless, this trio is decent early to mid second round options. But it would not surprise me if the Madden curse hits Hillis, Gore gets hurt, and McFadden returns to uninspiring.  
       Player I do NOT want: Darren McFadden

14-16: Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, LeGarrett Blount
       Player I want most: Forte. Despite being a Packers fan, I think Forte will be a great value pick and a solid option.  Blount and Moreno each have good potential, but are a little more unsure picks.

17-21: The Free Agents and Young'ins:  Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Jahvid Best
       Player I want most: Green-Ellis.  With an annoyingly long name, I think the Pats will run the ball enough to get Green-Ellis some quality scores and yardage.
       What to do with Stewart, Williams, and Bradshaw? All are pending free agents and it's very hard to tell of their value till they sign.  Stewart right now looks to be the safest as he should return to Carolina where he will certainly run the ball a lot.  With Best most likely splitting carries, it will tough for him to produce.

22-25: Redemption Backs: Cedric Benson, Ryan Matthews, Shonn Greene, Felix Jones
       Player I want most: Shonn Greene. All of these backs were in some way a disappointment last season but I expect Matthews and Green in particular to put up good, if not great numbers.  Greene will be of tremendous value for where is being picked and definitely worth a chance.

26-29: Fred Jackson, Ryan Grant, James Starks, Daniel Thomas
       Player I want most: Ryan Grant. If Grant does retake the starter's role in Green Bay, I think he will pick up where he left off.  That is about 1,200 yards and 4-6 TD's. But this is a big IF.

30-37: Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Torain, Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Williams, Joseph Addai, Mike Tolbert
       Player I want most: Brandon Jacobs.  If Bradshaw leaves, Jacobs will see his value spike.  Either way, for a running back committee, he certainly makes the most of it and should produce touchdowns.

38-47: The Rest: C.J. Spiller, Michael Bush, Beanie Wells, LaDanian Tomlinson, Thomas Jones, Danny Woodhead, Montario Hardesty, Mike Goodson, Rashad Jennings, Ronnie Brown
       Player I want most: Not really anyone besides Woodhead. I mean, who doesn't like that little guy. He's only got 2 inches on me.  But of all of these, Spiller for sure has the most athletic potential and should see a fair amount of carries as Fred Jackson's backup. Rashad Jennings is a very necessary handcuff for MJD.

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