Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Torn Hammy = Mock Draft Time!

Well, when you have a torn hamstring, you're usually pretty limited in what you can do. So my typical day this summer includes: reading dat Bible and spending time with God, NBA 2k, eating, sleeping, icing, anti-inflammatory drugs, getting surprise visits from girlfriend, and upper body lifting. And, of course, fantasy football mock drafts.

Like many other mock drafts, I wish this could be my real team. It's loaded at RB/WR. Absolutely loaded. And when you get Tony Romo in the 9th round, you can't help but feel giddy. If only people didn't take RGIII and Matt Stafford right before me as their backups! Then I would feel more like this.
So here's my roster:
QB: Tony Romo
RB: C.J. Spiller, Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush, Jacquizz Rodgers
WR: Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, Eric Decker
TE: Owen Daniels
K: Doesn't Matter
DST: Packers

So here's how the draft went. I would quantify the draft as having three idiotic boneheads because they took kickers in a round other than the last. But that's just my opinion.

And other than that, have a look. See my key points right after the draft summary. Feel free to comment and let me know how you think I did. Did I blow a pick? Did I wait too long on a quarterback? Am I hyping up this draft too much? Am I being unreasonable with money picks and terrible picks?

Red = Terrible pick (mostly based on value)
Green = Money pick
Blue = Questionable pick
Bold = My picks
Round: 1
(1) Team Crawford - Adrian Peterson RB
(2) Team Deckelman - Arian Foster RB
(3) Team Cacciotti - Doug Martin RB
(4) Team Rodriguez - Marshawn Lynch RB
(5) Team Jones - Ray Rice RB
(6) Team lamborn - Jamaal Charles RB
** (7) Team amodio - C.J. Spiller RB
(8) Team Easley - Trent Richardson RB
(9) Team Palasky - Calvin Johnson WR
(10) Team thomas - LeSean McCoy RB
Round: 2
(11) Team thomas - Steven Jackson RB
(12) Team Palasky - A.J. Green WR
(13) Team Easley - Dez Bryant WR
** (14) Team amodio - Alfred Morris RB
(15) Team lamborn - Aaron Rodgers QB
(16) Team Jones - Drew Brees QB
(17) Team Rodriguez - Matt Forte RB
(18) Team Cacciotti - Brandon Marshall WR
(19) Team Deckelman - Frank Gore RB
(20) Team Crawford - Peyton Manning QB
Round: 3
(21) Team Crawford - Demaryius Thomas WR
(22) Team Deckelman - Julio Jones WR
(23) Team Cacciotti - Chris Johnson RB
(24) Team Rodriguez - Tom Brady QB
(25) Team Jones - Maurice Jones-Drew RB
(26) Team lamborn - Stevan Ridley RB
** (27) Team amodio - Percy Harvin WR
(28) Team Easley - Cam Newton QB
(29) Team Palasky - Jimmy Graham TE
(30) Team thomas - David Wilson RB
Round: 4
(31) Team thomas - Darren McFadden RB
(32) Team Palasky - Larry Fitzgerald WR
(33) Team Easley - Darren Sproles RB
** (34) Team amodio - Randall Cobb WR
(35) Team lamborn - Roddy White WR
(36) Team Jones - Montee Ball RB
(37) Team Rodriguez - Andre Johnson WR
(38) Team Cacciotti - Vincent Jackson WR
(39) Team Deckelman - Wes Welker WR
(40) Team Crawford - Victor Cruz WR
Round: 5
(41) Team Crawford - Rob Gronkowski TE
(42) Team Deckelman - Colin Kaepernick QB
(43) Team Cacciotti - DeMarco Murray RB
(44) Team Rodriguez - Marques Colston WR
(45) Team Jones - Aaron Hernandez TE
(46) Team lamborn - Reggie Wayne WR
** (47) Team amodio - Reggie Bush RB
(48) Team Easley - Danny Amendola WR
(49) Team Palasky - Vick Ballard RB
(50) Team thomas - Mike Wallace WR
Round: 6
(51) Team thomas - Dwayne Bowe WR
(52) Team Palasky - Eddie Lacy RB
(53) Team Easley - Chris Ivory RB
** (54) Team amodio - Hakeem Nicks WR
(55) Team lamborn - Ryan Mathews RB
(56) Team Jones - Jordy Nelson WR
(57) Team Rodriguez - Antonio Brown WR
(58) Team Cacciotti - Matt Ryan QB
(59) Team Deckelman - Vernon Davis TE
(60) Team Crawford - Michael Crabtree WR
Round: 7
(61) Team Crawford - Russell Wilson QB
(62) Team Deckelman - Lamar Miller RB
(63) Team Cacciotti - Jason Witten TE
(64) Team Rodriguez - Tony Gonzalez TE
(65) Team Jones - Torrey Smith WR
(66) Team lamborn - Steve Smith WR
** (67) Team amodio - Eric Decker WR
(68) Team Easley - Isaiah Pead RB
(69) Team Palasky - BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB
(70) Team thomas - Tavon Austin WR
Round: 8
(71) Team thomas - T.Y. Hilton WR
(72) Team Palasky - Le'Veon Bell RB
(73) Team Easley - Josh Gordon WR
** (74) Team amodio - Greg Jennings WR
(75) Team lamborn - Giovani Bernard RB
(76) Team Jones - DeSean Jackson WR
(77) Team Rodriguez - Pierre Garcon WR
(78) Team Cacciotti - 49ers D/ST D/ST
(79) Team Deckelman - Seahawks D/ST D/ST
(80) Team Crawford - Rashard Mendenhall RB
Round: 9
(81) Team Crawford - Robert Griffin III QB
(82) Team Deckelman - Andrew Luck QB
(83) Team Cacciotti - Steve Johnson WR
(84) Team Rodriguez - Johnathan Franklin RB
(85) Team Jones - Matthew Stafford QB
(86) Team lamborn - Dennis Pitta TE
** (87) Team amodio - Tony Romo QB
(88) Team Easley - Kenny Britt WR
(89) Team Palasky - Danario Alexander WR
(90) Team thomas - Ryan Williams RB
Round: 10
(91) Team thomas - Carson Palmer QB
(92) Team Palasky - Eli Manning QB
(93) Team Easley - Shane Vereen RB
** (94) Team amodio - Andre Brown RB
(95) Team lamborn - James Jones WR
(96) Team Jones - Bryce Brown RB
(97) Team Rodriguez - Miles Austin WR
(98) Team Cacciotti - Mark Ingram RB
(99) Team Deckelman - Cecil Shorts WR
(100) Team Crawford - Jonathan Stewart RB   
Round: 11
(101) Team Crawford - Kyle Rudolph TE
(102) Team Deckelman - Greg Olsen TE
(103) Team Cacciotti - Anquan Boldin WR
(104) Team Rodriguez - Mikel Leshoure RB
(105) Team Jones - Texans D/ST D/ST
(106) Team lamborn - Mike Williams WR
** (107) Team amodio - Owen Daniels TE
(108) Team Easley - Jared Cook TE
(109) Team Palasky - Bears D/ST D/ST
(110) Team thomas - Jermichael Finley TE
Round: 12
(111) Team thomas - Lance Moore WR
(112) Team Palasky - Sidney Rice WR
(113) Team Easley - Michael Vick QB
** (114) Team amodio - Jeremy Maclin WR
(115) Team lamborn - Ben Roethlisberger QB
(116) Team Jones - Ben Tate RB
(117) Team Rodriguez - Broncos D/ST D/ST
(118) Team Cacciotti - Stephen Gostkowski K
(119) Team Deckelman - Bernard Pierce RB
(120) Team Crawford - Ahmad Bradshaw RB    
Round: 13
(121) Team Crawford - Antonio Gates TE
(122) Team Deckelman - Blair Walsh K
(123) Team Cacciotti - Brandon Myers TE
(124) Team Rodriguez - Fred Jackson RB
(125) Team Jones - LaMichael James RB
(126) Team lamborn - Emmanuel Sanders WR
** (127) Team amodio - Denarius Moore WR
(128) Team Easley - Joe Flacco QB
(129) Team Palasky - DeAngelo Williams RB
(130) Team thomas - Chris Givens WR
Round: 14
(131) Team thomas - Brandon Lloyd WR
(132) Team Palasky - Michael Bush RB
(133) Team Easley - Kendall Wright WR
** (134) Team amodio - Jacquizz Rodgers RB
(135) Team lamborn - Bengals D/ST D/ST
(136) Team Jones - Matt Prater K
(137) Team Rodriguez - DeAndre Hopkins WR
(138) Team Cacciotti - Andy Dalton QB
(139) Team Deckelman - Alshon Jeffery WR
(140) Team Crawford - Patriots D/ST D/ST
Round: 15
(141) Team Crawford - Mike Goodson RB
(142) Team Deckelman - Martellus Bennett TE
(143) Team Cacciotti - Daryl Richardson RB
(144) Team Rodriguez - Sam Bradford QB
(145) Team Jones - Shonn Greene RB
(146) Team lamborn - Malcom Floyd WR
** (147) Team amodio - Packers D/ST D/ST
(148) Team Easley - Steelers D/ST D/ST
(149) Team Palasky - Brian Hartline WR
(150) Team thomas - Browns D/ST D/ST 
Round: 16
(151) Team thomas - Matt Bryant K
(152) Team Palasky - Justin Tucker K
(153) Team Easley - Phil Dawson K
** (154) Team amodio - Sebastian Janikowski K
(155) Team lamborn - Randy Bullock K

(156) Team Jones - Kenjon Barner RB
(157) Team Rodriguez - Josh Brown K
(158) Team Cacciotti - Cowboys D/ST D/ST
(159) Team Deckelman - Andre Roberts WR
(160) Team Crawford - David Akers K
  • Clearly, you can wait on quarterbacks. But take a look at teams Amodio, Thomas, and Palasky who wisely waited. In a typical draft, they would've had their choice of Luck, Stafford, Romo, or RGIII. Unfortunately, a couple teams  for some reason took backup QB's leaving Amodio with the last of the big 12. So here's the main takeaway: You can wait till the 9th round to get a darn good starting quarterback. But don't push it or you may end up with Eli Manning.
  • Any quarterback after the 5th round to me is money. Any top 12 QB in the 7-9th rounds? Big money. As I said before, this year is DEEP.
  • People still think there is a reason to take a kicker before the last round. It is beyond me why that belief is still in people's heads.
  • Two defenses went in round eight. Too early. Two defenses went in round 11. Just right.
  • Besides the top 10-12 running backs, it really is a crapshoot. Just ask the guy who got Vick Ballard and Eddie Lacy as his starting running backs. I'm going to have nightmares just thinking about that.
  • You basically need two running backs in the first three rounds or that guy could be you. Even the guy with Adrian Peterson. Say hello to Rashard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart as your compliment.
  • After getting Spiller and Morris I was going to take Ridley if he fell. Can't have too many running backs this year. Unfortunately, he was taken one spot ahead.
  • Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have an argument to go in the second round. Peyton Manning nor any other quarterback does.
  • Montee Ball in the fourth round? I guess...
  • Not only are the QBs deep but so are the WRs. Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, and Eric Decker in rounds 6,7 and 8? Gimme dat. They'll fit nicely behind my two top 10 wideouts Harvin and Cobb.
  • I expect RGIII's draft status to change drastically as more is found out about his injury status.
  • "Maybe this is the year Jermichael Finley breaks out," said countless people the last three years. Perhaps now people are finally saying, "Maybe this is the year Finley finally goes undrafted." Well, round 11. Still not a worthwhile pick.
  • No Tebow? But he seems guaranteed to put up at least one touchdown with the Montreal Alouettes.
  • And where's JaMarcus? I heard he "slimmed down" to "just" 265 pounds.

Sunday, May 26, 2013

2013 Quarterback Overview

While last year had a plethora of quarterbacks going in the first two rounds, this upcoming season should be vastly different. The league has become extremely pass happy and non-committee running backs are a dime a dozen. In large part, the running back position has the steepest drop-off after the elites and is hands down the shallowest of any position. And this past year, 23 quarterbacks scored more than 200 points (in 6 point per passing touchdown leagues), the most ever to do so. It is ridiculously deep at the quarterback position this year.

The quarterback position is so deep that I would be reluctant to take a quarterback in the first twenty picks! Although I can guarantee that someone will take Aaron Rodgers in the first round, it shouldn't happen. To give you an idea of what can happen, Matt Ryan has been going as late as the ninth round in the mock drafts. So please, fellow fantasy footballers, WAIT! Be patient. Let the draft come to you. Don't start a quarterback run. And if there is one, WAIT! Just because Cam Newton is available in the fourth round does not mean he's the best pick available given the scarcity of running backs. On the other hand, if there is a running back run, you better snatch one up otherwise you might be looking at a tandem of Chris Ivory and Reggie Bush. Yuck.

And to those in my league (which I won) last year who started taking backups in the 8th round. WAIT. Please. Freaking. Wait. Last year, by the time people were taking unnecessary backups, I was taking my starter, Robert Griffin III. Obviously in hindsight it was a great pick. But at the time, it was a scrambling, never-racking pick. And while last year there was a risk to wait that long, this year you can be making bank by waiting that long.

Let me re-iterate: This is the year to wait. If you don't get Aaron Rodgers, so what? Get Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, even Colin Kaepernick after the fifth round. Tony Romo is the 12th ranked quarterback in ESPN and my rankings. In a 10 team league that means he is a backup! Wait. Heck, in a twelve team league I bet you can get Matt Stafford as your backup if want to be "that guy".

Here's another thing. You hardly need a backup quarterback unless you draft Griffin (the ACL concerns). With guys like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, etc all outside the top 12, you don't need to waste a roster spot when you can just pick one up later. Let me just sternly say: If you draft either Rodgers, Brady, Brees, or Manning and then proceed to draft a backup QB, you are most certainly wasting a roster spot.

So finally, WAIT. WAIT on a quarterback likes it's your girlfriend trying on every dress imaginable. You know she'll find the right one eventually, even if it takes three hours.

Do some mock drafts to see where your favorite quarterbacks are going. Suppose you like Russell Wilson higher than most. Don't rush to take him. Do a mock draft and see if you can get him in the sixth or seventh round. Or maybe you like Matt Stafford to bounce back or maybe you're just fine with any of the QB's from the five to twelve range. Then try mock drafts and push it to see how long you can wait on a number one quarterback. And if you are in a "standard" 4 point per passing touchdown league, really, really wait. If it is a 6 point per any touchdown league, still wait (but perhaps not quite as long).

And alas. Here are my consistency rankings based on last year's stats. You can find two seasons ago here. Keep in mind the percentage on the right is for percentage of "Great" games. So for instance, Rodgers was great in 9 out of 16 or 56.25% of his games last season. But it's important to note that he was still a worthy start in 75% of his games (add the 3 "Start" games to the 9 "Great" or better games).

Freak Stud Great Start Dud
Player (last year's rank) 35 25 20 15 <15Inj/Sit% Great
Rodgers (2) 4 5 0 3 4 056.25
Brees (1) 6 4 2 3 1 0 75.00
P. Manning (4) 0 10 2 2 2 0 75.00
Brady (3) 4     2     6     3     1     0     75.00
Ryan (5) 2 5 3 2 4 0     62.50
Newton (6)  2 3 4 2 5 0 56.25
Griffin III (7) 3 4 1 4 3 1 53.33
Wilson (9)* 1 5          2          2          6         0             50.00       
Romo (8) 1 4 3 4 4 0     50.00
Stafford (11) 1 2 4 5 4 0 43.75
Kaepernick (25) 0 1 3 3 1 8 50.00
Luck (10) 1 3         2          7         3         0            37.50      
E. Manning (14) 1 4 1 3 7 0     37.50
Roethlisberger (16) 1 2 3 5 2 3 46.15
Vick (27) 0 1 1 5 3 6 20.00
Flacco (15) 1           1          5          2         7        0            43.75      
Rivers (20) 0 3 1 7 5     0     25.00
Dalton (12) 0 7 0 2 7 0 43.75
Bradford (18) 0 2 2 4 8 0 25.00
Freeman (13) 1 3 3 3 6 043.75
Palmer (19) 1 0 5 5 4 1 40.00
Cutler (23) 0 1 4 2 8 133.33
Tannehill (24) 0 1 3 3 9 0 25.00
Smith (29) 0 2 2 0 5 744.44
Tebow (CFL) It's Tee Bow Time in Can ada?
All stats here based on 1 point per 25 passing yards, 1 point per 10 rushing yards, and 6 points per touchdown.

*Five of Wilson's six duds came in the first seven games. He finished the year with just one dud in his last nine games.

So here are some main takeaways from last year's stats (also in comparison to two years ago). And here are last year's rankings for you to compare.
  • Aaron Rodgers "Great" percentage is a far cry from last year's perfect percentage. But even with the lowest percentage among the top five, he finished in the top 3 for the fifth year in a row.
  • Over the past two years, Drew Brees has been the most consistent quarterback. And now Sean Payton is coming back. Sheesh.
  • How right was I about Eli Manning? Very right. Expect more inconsistent play from him. For the past two years, he has had the most duds among the top 15 quarterbacks. He's not worthy of a starting spot in any league with 12 or fewer owners.
  • Of my top ten, Peyton Manning was the only one who did not register a freak game. I expect that to change this year with the best receiving corps in football. Sorry to my Packers fans out there.
  • There were 30 freak games this past season in comparison to just 18 last year. Can I emphasize what a passing league this has become? And just how deep the quarterback pool is this year.
  • Andy Dalton tied for fourth in games with 25 or more points. He was also tied for fourth in games with 15 or less points.
  • While Luck does not have a high percentage of great games, he was startable in 13 of 16 games.
Now. With all this in mind, get it! Be patient. Have fun. And stock up on running backs and wide receivers while your opponents take quarterbacks way too early.