Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Love/Hate Players: 2013

Here it is folks. My master list. Players I love. And players I hate. I do this every year and would recommend that everyone come up with a list of their own for draft preparation. And if you don't? Well, use mine and maybe you'll win four of eight leagues like I did last year. All kidding aside, enjoy this fantasy season and do some damage.

Player denotations:
Player name, position, team (Average Draft Position, My Draft Position): Reasons 
Here are the players that I LOVE:

Matt Stafford, QB, Lions (58.0, 50) VALUE, COMEBACK: Stafford has now put together back-to-back full seasons after being labeled injury prone in his first two. And while Stafford's pass attempts increased last year, every major statistical category got worse. Why? Perhaps mechanics, drops, or Calvin Johnson getting tackled at the one yard line at least five times. Still, he finished tenth among quarterbacks and probably can't be worse than last year. He is well worth a five or sixth rounder (I recently got him in the seventh) and has legitimate top five potential. He represents great value in a deep quarterback class and I expect him to comeback and return to numbers closer to his 2011 season.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (80.4, 66) VALUE, UNDERRATED: Romo has been underrated in fantasy for a long time. Since 2007, he has never thrown less than 26 touchdowns or less than 4,000 yards (besides his injured 2010 season). Like Stafford, Romo brings tremendous value for being the 12th quarterback off the board. He finished eighth last season and for being an eighth round pick, he may be one of the biggest bargains this season. 

Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins (48.1, 41) VALUE: RGIII would be going higher if there was not so much uncertainty with his injury. He finished in the top five for quarterbacks last year and could easily crack the top five again. While there are injury concerns, getting him 30 picks later than Peyton Manning (who scored the same as RGIII last year), is a great value. If he's there in the fifth round, I'll take him.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans (24.4, Ahead of Forte, Gore, MJD) VALUE, COMEBACK, TEAM IMPROVEMENTS: CJ2K might finally be back. A vastly improved offensive line and another year of experience for Jake Locker bodes well for Johnson. He's always had big play potential but has a great chance to find some consistency this year. While he may not return close to 2,000 yards, I do expect him to make a comeback and possibly crack the top 10 this year.

Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins (67.3, 52) VALUE, THE MAN, SLEEPER: Like Bell, Miller figures to be "the man" this year. Daniel Thomas has been uninspiring and Miller brings 4.40 speed to a revamped Miami offense. Assuming Miller does take the majority of carries, I think he has great potential to be a top 15 running back. Keep your eye on him on draft day and pull the trigger before someone else does.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles (12.4, Ahead of Richardson, Morris) TEAM IMPROVEMENTS, COMEBACK: I loved Shady last year but he was underutilized and missed three games. But Chip Kelly's offense will surely use him to the fullest and I expect a big comeback on his part. Hopefully improved quarterback play, a speedy offensive line, and an up-tempo offense will resurrect McCoy. Especially in PPR leagues, McCoy is a fantastic option over the likes of Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson.

Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams (96.9, 75) VALUE, THE MAN: Richardson represents the last starting running back you can get in the draft. But for him to go in the 11th round says a lot about his team and himself. Nonetheless, he brings value as such a late pick especially with Isaiah Pead's suspension and fumbling troubles. Richardson figures to be "the man" and should be snatched up as a solid backup.

Reggie Bush, RB, Lions (45.7, Ahead of McFadden, Ball, Sproles) VALUE, THE MAN, PPR: Detroit running backs Mikel Leshore and Joique Bell caught a combined 86 passes last year. Now in comes Reggie, and I expect him to not only get most of those but to also get most of the carries. Bush is one of the better of the lackluster running backs going in the fourth to fifth round and carries great value in PPR leagues.

Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders (Undrafted, 150): SLEEPER, INJURY-PRONE STARTER, PPR: If McFadden gets hurt this year, which history says will happen at some point, then Reece will figure to be in line for carries. But his real potential is in PPR leagues where last year he compiled 52 catches. And in the three games where he did receive 10 or more carries, he scored a combined 37 points. Not bad.

Randall Cobb, WR, Packers (35.7, Ahead of Welker, Johnson, Jackson) BREAKOUT, PPR: He's my breakout candidate for this year. With favorite Greg Jennings gone Cobb is the guy in Green Bay. He has the potential for 100 catches and the only thing that might stop him is his teammates. James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and even Jermichael Finley will get plenty of targets as well keeping Cobb from being a true number one option. But I'll draft Cobb within the first 10 receiver picks with no hesitation.

Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers (124.9, 115) SLEEPER, OPPORTUNITY: If he stays healthy, Brown could really turn heads. He came into the NFL as a polished, NFL-ready receiver who could run great routes. Unfortunately, injuries have doomed him. But he finally might be ready and now the injury of Danario Alexander has paved way. Keep an eye on his health during the preseason and if he looks healthy, he could develop into a solid number two option.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs (56.8, 49) TEAM IMPROVEMENTS, VALUE: Goodbye, Matt Cassel. Hello, Alex Smith. Hello, offensive line. Bowe finally has a decent quarterback and team.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers (67.8, 57) UNDERRATED, VALUE, THE MAN, SLEEPER: Brown failed to impress when I thought he would last year. But with Mike Wallace finally out of the picture, it's Brown's time to shine. He's got elusive speed and solid hands and is trusted by Big Ben to get first downs. He's underrated and a great sleeper to target this year.

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens (69.8, 61) VALUE, THE MAN, BREAKOUT: Assuming Joe Flacco is still Joe Flacco, then Smith will still have inconsistent numbers. But he is Flacco's best option and I expect Smith to breakout this year. He flashed potential with big games against New England and San Diego last year. Let's hope he can do that more often now.

Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars (82.6, 75): VALUE, SLEEPER: On a team with such bad quarterback play, it's impressive that he put up nine double digit games. While he is dealing with concussion problems, Shorts is a great sleeper that makes this such a deep wide receiver pool.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts (87.6, 74) VALUE, SLEEPER: Hilton impressed last year with blazing speed and he earned the trust of Andrew Luck. As Reggie Wayne continues to age, Hilton will be relied on more heavily and can improve on his impressive rookie campaign. He is currently listed as the number three receiver. But that folks, will change.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers (112.0, 100) SLEEPER: Paired alongside Antonio Brown, Sanders has a chance to finally make some noise. Expect a lot of short passes going his way and solid production as a number three receiver.

Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (119.7, 105): SLEEPER
Greg Little, WR, Browns (155.6, 140): SLEEPER
Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns (129.7, 100) RAW, SLEEPER, TEAM IMPROVEMENTS: All three of the guys should benefit from the scheme change in Cleveland. Brandon Weeden has looked much better compared to last season and Cameron and Gordon have looked fantastic this preseason. Granted, it is preseason, but it's worth noting. And hear this: Cameron has the potential to be the next Jimmy Graham. Maybe it won't be this year as he still has a lot to learn of the game, but he has looked great in the Browns' vertical offense.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots (45.9, 45) THE MAN (when healthy): Despite missing five games last season, Gronk finished second among tight ends in points. So even if he does miss the first six games, that's mean you can still have the best tight end for the last 10 games. And the fifth ranked tight end and fifteenth ranked tight end really aren't too different so any backup will suffice. He's worth a pick and if he does managed to come back sooner than expected, then you have a steal.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers (103.2, 90) OPPORTUNITY: Love might be a little strong of a word for Jermichael Finley. How about just "like moderately more than this continually disappointing bum." With Greg Jennings gone, Finley might finally live up to the hype. His drops have always been a problem but they've always been mental, not physical. Packers' reporter Vic Ketchman says Finley has the best hands on the team and that Finley has zoned in this season and has a new found focus. If Finley finally earns the trust of Rodgers, he will be a steal.

Tim Tebow, QB/FB/TE, Patriots (N/A, Never) MAN CRUSH: I love him. Just not in fantasy. Nor for his real life skill.

Here are the players that I HATE:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (9.5, 15) DEPTH, TOO HIGH: I love him. He will be a top five quarterback easily. But he is not worth a first round pick. Not with this kind of depth at quarterback and lack of depth at running back.

Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady DEPTH, TOO HIGH: Same issue here. None of these guys are worth where they are going. But if you can get Brees in the third and Manning/Brady in the fourth, that's where you'll find value.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks (61.2, Behind Romo, Luck) INJURIES, DECLINE: With Percy Harvin out for a while, Wilson's value certainly takes a hit. I do not think there will be much improvement over last season and think it's more likely than not that he will finish out of the top 10 for quarterbacks.

Montee Ball, RB, Broncos (43.8, 50) ROOKIE, RB COMPETITION, TOO HIGH: He has done nothing to take hold of the top spot in Denver and is struggling with blitz pickup. Those are bad signs for a team with Peyton Manning. Expect modest production for a guy whose ceiling is that of Joseph Addai's.

Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins (12.0, Behind McCoy) DECLINE: The odds of Morris replicating his phenomenal rookie season are slim. And if Mike Shanahan ever goes back to his old ways of rotating running backs like crazy, then you've got a interesting pick here.

Trent Richardson, RB, Browns (10.2, Behind McCoy) INJURY-PRONE: Cleveland's offense is a major sleeper this year in part of Richardson. But he has been banged up his whole career and could turn into a Brian-Westbrook-like player: Great numbers but not on the field enough. He could be a stud, but he could also crush the playoff hopes of your team.

Packers’ Running Backs: TOO MANY, UNCERTAINTY, NO “THE MAN”: Eddie Lacy is starting to look like "the man" but the situation is a huge unknown. Lacy and DuJuan Harris figure to be most involved but at best they'll split carries. And even James Starks, Johnathan Franklin, or Alex Green could take some carries. Avoid this situation.

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders (39.0, 48) INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE: This is a yearly concern. McFadden has never played more than 13 games in a season. He's like Brian Westbrook but not even as good. Therefore, it is simple. Don't draft him unless he plummets.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (46.3, 55) INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE: Read about Darren McFadden.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans (30.4, 37) INJURY-PRONE, AGE, RUN-HEAVY: Johnson rebounded from an off season and put up great numbers in Houston. Unfortunately, he is not getting younger and the Texans remain a run-heavy team. He is the perfect case of a high-risk, high-reward player.

Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers (79.6, 90) OLD, SLOW, RUN-HEAVY: He is old and, despite a great playoff run, he remains a mediocre fantasy option. He has not topped 1,000 yards or 7 touchdowns over the past three years. In other words, don't count on the young Anquan to show up.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants (55.3, 65) INJURY-PRONE, DEPTH: Nicks' days as a borderline number one receiver could be over. He has never played a whole season and is in a position where there is loads of talent. I'd rather get someone like Shorts or Hilton much later in the draft.

Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins (48.2, 55) NEW TEAM, UNDERACHIEVER: This pick rides heavily on the progression of Ryan Tannehill. If he improves, then Wallace could put up similar numbers to his prime days. But that's a big if. And no matter how much Tannehill improves, he is no Ben Roethlisberger.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (78.2, 100) DECLINE, RUN-HEAVY: Hm. Isn't there that guy who runs the ball a lot on this team.\? Oh yeah, that guy: Adrian Peterson. While Rudolph was a legitimate red zone threat last season, he caught just 53 passes. And 9 of those passes were touchdowns. There's almost no way his touchdown-to-catch ratio will be that high again and a decline in production makes sense.

Stephen Gostowski, K, Patriots (101.2, LAST ROUND) DO PEOPLE EVER LISTEN!?, TOO HIGH: Please, for the love of God, do not. I repeat DO NOT take a kicker this early. 

Seahawks DST (70.2, 100) TOO HIGH: This is far too high for a defense. Enough said. Don't miss out on depth for a defense this early.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Patriots Finally Find Their Franchise Quarterback in Tim Tebow

In early June, the Patriots made headlines by bringing in Tim Tebow. After a decade of embarrassing quarterback play, the Patriots have finally found their franchise quarterback.

In his opening press conference, Coach Belichick breathed a sigh of relief as he talked about Tebow after dealing with Tom Brady for years. The typically-jubilant Belichick displayed all sorts of emotions, ranging from chants of "Tebow, Tebow," to crying over the previous years of quarterback play. After Brady averaged only 30 touchdown passes a season and had a career passer rating of 96.6, the Patriots decided it was time to upgrade. Replacing Brady's crisp, on-the-money passes are Tebow's beautiful lame ducks that give everyone on the field a chance to catch. In practice, this not only allows the receivers to work on their hands but also the defensive backs, linebackers, and even the defensive lineman. Every position will get its fair share of passes.

Long gone is the slow Brady. In comes the new savior of the franchise.
We were all shocked in the 2000's when the Patriots became the team to beat despite not having "the man." There were reports that the Patriots aggressively pursued Rex Grossman because of what an upgrade he would have been over their previous situation. Another bad break ensued when former first rounder JaMarcus Russell turned them down in an apparent effort to catch Joey Chestnut. Now, after years of quarterback turmoil, the Patriots have their man.

It should come as no surprise that the Patriots signed the greatest Denver Broncos quarterback in history. But what the Patriots gain is the Broncos loss, as they have had to settle for Peyton Manning this past season. With no wins in the playoffs, it's already looking like the Broncos are trying to find a new cornerstone. But the Patriots appear to be set for at least the next 15 years, give or take a few.

Belichick was overcome with joy when talking about Tebow.
He said he expects an 80% completion percentage and 6,000 yards.
Fantasy Impact:
Not only does this turn the Patriots from a borderline playoff team to Super Bowl favorite, but the Patriots finally become relevant in the fantasy football realm. Tebow brings a lot to the table so let's analyze this top two fantasy pick:

Tebow will almost assuredly lead the league in autographs signed as his unquestioned popularity makes him a fan favorite. It also helps that during most practices he will hardly be doing anything. Clearly, he is so valuable that they don't want to risk any injuries. So expect Tebow to put up big fantasy points in that category with a very low injury risk.

While most elite quarterbacks complete near 65% of passes, Tebow chooses to let his hover around the 50% mark to even the playing field. But Belichick was reported to have said that he won't let Tebow be held back this season. So as a result, I expect somewhere around an 82% completion percentage and 6,000 yards.

Previously unquestioned number one pick Adrian Peterson made a thoroughly impressive comeback last season. Meanwhile, Tebow chose to sit out this past season to recharge. He took a job coaching the bench players of the New York Jets. Unfortunately, a butt fumble kept them out of the New York high school divisional playoffs. With a full recharge, Tebow is reportedly even more ripped and ready to run. With a basement of Eric Dickerson's best season and a ceiling of 3,000 rushing yards, Tebow will no doubt be a top two pick.

Tebow may also line up at tight end some plays according to Belichick. While it's unfortunate that it brings Brady back onto the field, it will allow Tebow to be the most complete triple threat player in the league. Expect 25-50 catches to go along with his 3,000 rushing yards and 6,000 passing yards.

So all in all, Tebow should put up somewhere between 800-1000 fantasy points. That will effectively double Brady's output last season. And Tim Tebow will finally get the appropriate amount of attention from ESPN he deserves. Thank God.

Hope you guys enjoyed this analysis on the most polarizing back-up quarterback in the NFL. Here's a challenge I have for a brave soul: Draft Tebow in the first round and find a way to win. If you do, just think of the bragging rights you will have earned. Whenever you see friends from the league, just the mention of Tim Tebow's name should be enough to bring them to tears. Is anybody up for it? Do you have the guts?

Thursday, August 1, 2013

2013 Wide Receiver Tiers

The injuries are just starting. First it was Michael Crabtree tearing his Achilles in May. Now Percy Harvin is out an estimated 12-16 weeks because of hip surgery. That means as long as you haven't drafted already, Harvin will likely go in the last couple rounds or undrafted. And if you did draft him already, well, sucks to be you. *Update: Jeremy Maclin and Danario Alexander suffered season ending injuries as well.

Like the quarterback class, we have a very deep wide receiver pool. Players like former top five wide receiver Greg Jennings, number one wideout in San Francisco Anquan Boldin, emerging T.Y. Hilton, Torrey Smith, and Miles Austin can all be drafted in the 25-35 range. That's value.

You know what these receiver are like? The book Holes. In that book there's a lot of holes. Go figure. And they're deep. Just like there are a lot of receivers that make for a deep class. Yeah, that was a stretch. I'm sorry.

Well, to save my credibility after that awful analogy, I would like to let you all know that I am now engaged. And the best part of this? She is going to play in her first fantasy football league this year. Maybe that's not the best result of the engagement but it's pretty high up there. That and the prospect of marrying my best friend. Yeah, there's that.

So anyways, get on your horse. Here are your 2013 wide receiver tiers.

Tier 1: The Mega(Tron) Elite
1. Calvin Johnson (ADP 8.7)

Why does he have a tier of his own? It probably has something to do with the fact that he only caught five touchdowns but still led his position in fantasy points. Or it could be that he broke the single-season yards receiving mark previously held by legendary Jerry Rice. Or maybe it could be that he was targeted an NFL-high 205 times. Or it could be that he was tackled at the one-yard line five times yet still had the most points. Or maybe it's that he remains the only receiver worthy of a first round pick. As you can see, there are plenty of reasons why he has a tier of his own. I just wanted to name a few.

Who I want the most: Is this a trick question? Well actually, I do not plan on ever taking Calvin Johnson in any leagues this year. Nor did I take him in any leagues last year. With the wide receiver depth and lack of running backs this year, it is imperative to take running backs early. The only spot I would consider Calvin is with the snake picks 10 and 11 since I'll for sure get a top ten running back. But essentially, that will leave you with a Darren McFadden or Montee Ball as your number two. Risky, but with Johnson, it could still be worth it.

Tier 2: The Elite
2. A.J. Green (ADP 14.8)
3. Brandon Marshall (ADP 21.3)
4. Dez Bryant (ADP 17.8)

These guys are studs. Green has averaged 9 touchdowns and 1,200 yards in first two seasons. Marshall seems to be the only guy catching passes from Cutler and has caught over 100 passes in four of his seven seasons (and two others with over 80). And Bryant has 21 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Not too shabby of elites, eh?

Who I want the most: Brandon Marshall. You already know he is going to get somewhere around a floppity-bajillion targets. The chance to get him late second round or early third is a bargain. And he's the perfect pick for the Adrian Peterson owners. You'll get AP number one and then odds are on the next snake pick you can have Marshall and another choice of your own.

Tier 3: The Clear Number Ones
5. Julio Jones (ADP 21.6)
6. Roddy White (ADP 30.1)
7*. Percy Harvin (ADP 35.1, if he was not hurt)
7. Demaryius Thomas (ADP 25.9)

I might as well have thrown Wes Welker and Eric Decker in here and you'd have the Falcons and Broncos wideouts. Julio just edged out White last year by four points and that should only increase from here on out. While White and even Tony Gonzalez will still get plenty of looks, Jones is the now and future of the Falcons passing attack. He continues to amaze in camp and still had the best warm-up catch I've ever seen. And Thomas finally emerged once the chains of Tim Tebow broke away. But unlike the duo of White and Jones, the trio of Thomas, Welker, and Decker may bring some trouble. Last year's slot receiver Brandon Stokley receiver marginal targets and Welker is sure to receive more than that. But I'm not too worried as Thomas will still be the big-play and favorite target of Manning.

Who I want the most: Roddy White. But what about Julio Jones you say? He is simply incredible. He had double digit touchdowns and was 11th in receiving yards last year to build off a solid rookie campaign. He will only get better as time comes. But fantasy football is about minimizing your risk. I'll take White because I believe him to be the safer option that you can get nine picks later.

Tier 4: The Veteran Number Ones
8. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP 35.2)
9. Vincent Jackson (ADP 34.4)
10. Andre Johnson (ADP 31.2)

Fitzgerald, a perennial top 10 option was rendered useless by Moe, Larry, and Curly. Sorry, I mean Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, and Ryan Lindley. Wait wasn't there a fourth stooge at one point? Oh right, you can't forget Brian Hoyer. With a proven, decent quarterback in Carson Palmer coming to town, I expect Fitzgerald to return to his top 10 status. And Vincent Jackson, who continually underachieved in San Diego, finally broke through in Tampa Bay and is looking for another big season. Meanwhile, Johnson finally put together a completely healthy season for the first time since 2009. And even though he finished seventh among wide receivers, he was pretty inconsistent with a 33 point effort skewing his stat-line.

Who I want the most: Give me Fitzgerald and it is not even close. Johnson is on my seasonal avoid list because of injuries concerns and the run-happy Texans. And Jackson still has to catch more than 72 passes in a season, a sign that he still is not quite ready to stick with the big boys. I'll take the relatively safe in every league given the choice of these three.

Tier 5: High End Number Twos
11. Randall Cobb (ADP 36.3)
12. Victor Cruz (ADP 38.3)
13. Wes Welker (ADP 37.0)
14. Marques Colston (ADP 48.2)

Cobb emerged last season while Cruz stayed steady after his phenomenal breakthrough season. Welker and Colston remain solid and consistent options. Cobb has become Aaron Rodger's favorite target and is primed for a 100 catch season. Colston, while not spectacular, has averaged about 1,100 yards and 8.5 touchdowns over the last four seasons. And Welker joins the Broncos to form the best trio of wideouts in the game. But the odds of Welker seeing 174 targets again are slim and a drop-off would not be surprising.

Who I want the most: Randall Cobb. He has earned the complete trust of the best quarterback in the NFL and is entering the magic number year three. I really do expect close to 100 catches and a true breakout season from Cobb.

Tier 6: Solid Twos
15. Jordy Nelson (ADP 48.5)
16. Danny Amendola (ADP 53.3)
17. Reggie Wayne (ADP47.4)
18. Dwayne Bowe (ADP 61.1)
19. Mike Wallace (ADP 50.5)

Nelson was injured throughout last season and disappointed after his remarkable 2011 season. Amendola has played just 12 games in the past two seasons. Yet he could very well be a slightly-less-good version of Wes Welker. Bowe has suffered from terrible quarterback play his career and Mike Wallace enters a whole new situation in Miami. The one consistent man here is Reggie Wayne. People counted him out last year but I did not. He probably won't repeat last season, but he sure won't be drafted outside the top twenty anymore.

Who I want the most: Reggie Wayne. He has by far the least amount of question marks here. He will still be Andrew Luck's favorite and most reliable option for at least one more season. Wayne is not done yet.

Tier 7: The Last of the Number Twos
20. Antonio Brown (ADP 68.9)
21. Steve Smith (ADP 61.9)
22. Hakeem Nicks (ADP 59.3)
23. Torrey Smith (ADP 71.0)
24. Eric Decker (ADP 61.8)

Like Demaryius Thomas, Decker broke out last season. And as a thank you, he gets Wes Welker to steal plenty of his targets. Nicks struggled immensely with a nagging hamstring but still flashed his potential. Smith stuck around the top 20 and Torrey Smith just missed out. Brown largely disappointed as he received plenty of targets but also missed three games.

Who I want the most: Torrey Smith but Antonio Brown comes in a close second. With Wallace gone and a healthy body, I think Brown will finally become what Mike Wallace was not: a complete receiver. Two seasons ago, Brown outplayed Wallace in the second half and has the hands and speed to be a reliable option. But Smith is just too great of value here and with Joe Flacco riding on his high, Smith will benefit. Losing Anquan Boldin will also help as Smith Flacco's unquestioned favorite.

Tier 8: Depth
25. DeSean Jackson (ADP 77.4)
26. Pierre Garcon (ADP 71.6)
27. T.Y. Hilton (ADP 93.4)
28. Cecil Shorts (ADP 80.1)
29. James Jones (ADP 74.4)
30. Greg Jennings (ADP 79.4)

This is where the value comes in. You have last year's receiving touchdown leader, a former top five receiver, a very underrated burner in Indianapolis, and playmakers in Garcon, Jackson, and Shorts. I really would be happy with any of these guys although Jennings probably has the lowest ceiling with Christian Ponder as his quarterback. With Jeremy Maclin out, Jackson may finally bounce back and put up 2010 numbers. And if Garcon is healthy, look no further than what he did in week one last year to see what he can do now.

Who I want the most: Jackson, then Garcon, Hilton Shorts, Jones, Jennings. This tier is loaded with depth that I want. And I want it bad. Each of these guys could easily crack the top 20, if not the top 15. But Jackson possesses the highest potential in Chip Kelly's new offense and the best past (besides Jennings) here.

Tier 9: Depth Round Two
31. Anquan Boldin (ADP 80.1)
32. Steve Johnson (ADP 88.2)
33. Tavon Austin (ADP 77.7)
34. Mike Williams (ADP 97.7)
35. Danario Alexander (ADP 95.6) *Update: out for season.
36. Miles Austin (ADP 93.8)

We makin' it rain free depth here. High upside Tavon Austin is here while veterans Boldin, Johnson, Williams, and Miles Austin can all contribute. These guys could be low-end number two options but make great third receiver or flex options.

Who I want the most: Steve Johnson. He's been over 1,000 yards the past three seasons now but has a bit of a quarterback situation. Questioned first round pick E.J. Manuel is there or three-game-stud Kevin Kolb. No matter which starts, I expect Johnson to be the favorite target and to put up average numbers. Playing more out of the slot this year will help his consistency.

Tier 10: Marginal Upside
37. Josh Gordon (ADP 125.2)
38. Emmanuel Sanders (ADP 117.3)
39. Kenny Britt (ADP 112.2)
40. Sidney Rice (ADP 109.5)
41. Lance Moore (ADP 108.5)
42. Denarius Moore (ADP 121.0)
43. Chris Givens (ADP 124.3)

Gordon has upside. So does Sanders. Britt did have upside. Rice did when Brett Favre was around. Lance Moore is about as consistently mediocre you can get. Denarius Moore dipped from 14.3 to 9.3 yards per catch last year. And Givens is nothing flashy unless Bradford breaks out of mediocrity.

Who I want the most: Josh Gordon. He put up surprisingly solid numbers last year. The former supplemental draft pick is suspended for two games but could put up even better numbers in the Browns new vertical offense. He does have legitimate potential to be in the top 20 although that would be a bit of a stretch.

Tier 11: Rounding Out the Top 50
44. DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 132.7)
45. Michael Floyd (ADP 136.8)
46. Jacoby Jones (ADP 143.1)
47. Brian Hartline (ADP 145.3)
48. Justin Blackmon (ADP 147.4)
49. Greg Little (ADP 155.1)
50. Alshon Jeffery (ADP 139.9)

Hopkins and Floyd are the best sleepers here. But Little and Jeffery could emerge this season as well. Hartline and Jones will be hit or miss and Blackmon still has either Chad Henne or *gulp*, Blaine Gabbert throwing to him.

Who I want the most: Michael Floyd. He exploded in week 17 last season against San Francisco and now has Carson Palmer to throw to him.