Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em, Gut Starts

       Every week from now on I will provide you with players who I think you would be wise to start, sit, and those who I just have a gut feeling about. I will not be telling you to start Aaron Rodgers or Adrian Peterson as those are obvious starts. Instead, I will give you players who have advantageous matchups and could shake up your weekly lineup.

Josh Freeman vs Detroit
       Despite Detroit's frightening defensive line, Freeman has a great chance to pick up where he left off last season. He was one of the most consistent quarterbacks last year, only scoring in single digits once. His mobility will help him avoid the dangerous pass rush of the Lions and allow him to pick apart their weak seconday.
Eli Manning at Washington
       Manning struggled last season against Washington and is looking to rebound this season. While he still may throw a couple picks, he will also pick apart a very weak defense that was 26th against quarterbacks last year.

Matt Cassel vs Buffalo
       Reports are that Cassel may in fact miss his first start this season after suffering a rib injury. Despite the good matchup, he is obviously a risky start. His inconsistencies will make it hard to trust him especially on the run first Chiefs. Start him only if he is your best option, and I dearly hope that he is not.
Matt Ryan at Chicago 
       If you have Matt Ryan, odds are you waited on a quarterback and you took him as well as a solid backup. Ryan won't be a terrible option this week, but he may struggle away from home against a solid Chicago defense. Don't sit him for someone like Alex Smith, but I would rather start someone like Matt Stafford or Eli Manning.

Jahvid Best at Tampa Bay
       Remember Best's first two games last season? He looked like a stud rookie only to have his fragile body give out. He still finished 20th among running backs in PPR leagues and has Jamaal Charles-like potential. Start him while he is healthy and reap the rewards.
Peyton Hillis vs Cincinnati
       Against the awful Cinci defense, look for a monster start to the season for Hillis. Cleveland will surely pound the ball and Hillis should look more like he did before the season-ending collapse. His legs are fresh and he shows all indications of starting out this season right.   
Shonn Greene vs. Dallas
       Greene's breakout campaign will begin here against Dallas. Look for the Jets to rely heavily on him and much less on LaDanian Tomlinson. I expect Greene to get 80 yards and a touchdown this week, making him a great option. And considering he should be your 2nd or 3rd running back, what more could you ask for?
Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams at Arizona
       Arizona's defense was simply awful last season ranking 31st in fantasy against opposing running backs. They have made no signifcant changes and may be even worse. Carolina's terrific offensive line will open holes for both these guys and take some pressure off Cam Newton. Look for a big day from both of these guys, as each has a chance to eclipse 100 yards.
GUT PICK: Benjarvus Green-Ellis vs Miami
       I think Benjarvus will find his way into the endzone and prove that he's not just a one year wonder. That said, don't start him over an elite running back, but know that he does have a favorable matchup. My gut tells me 100 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Felix Jones vs New York Jets
       A tough matchup in week one for Felix Jones. While I believe he will have a breakout season with an appropriate amount of carries, I think we will have to wait till after week 1. The Jets stingy defense will make it tough for Jones to get anywhere. However, he is still worth a start in PPR leagues as he may be the recipient of many short passes. 
Michael Turner at Chicago
       Turner continues to be a workhorse and saw another 330 carry season for Atlanta. Last time that happened he slowed down dramatically and had an off year. I don't expect that much of a dip, but a little drop off for the aging Turner may be in store. That and facing the run stopping Bears will make it a painful week 1 for Turner. 
Ray Rice vs Pittsburgh
       Ray Rice struggled mightily against Pittsburgh last season. He accumulated just 17 carries for 52 yards and no touchdowns in two games against Pittsburgh. I don't see much changing as he will still struggle. But if you don't have any better options, then you have to start your number one back. Just don't get your hopes up for this week. And also don't give up on him if he does fail to produce, he will bounce back.
Ryan Matthews vs Minnesota
       I mean really? He's been banged up all camp, will lose goalline carries to Mike Tolbert, and has failed to inspire anybody to start him. Don't start him, especially against the Williams' of Minnesota.

Santana Moss vs New York Giants
       Moss is the now the most reliable target in Washington. Even with Rex Grossman starting, Moss should get his share of catches and will find success against the depleted New York defense.
Wes Welker at Miami
       Welker is a must-start in PPR leagues and a solid, consistent option all around. He may not put up monstrous numbers, but is a great option against the unbalanced Miami defense.
Kenny Britt at Jacksonville
       He scored a touchdown in 7 of his 12 games last season and now has the veteran Matt Hasselbeck throwing to him. He has great potential for this season and a great matchup against Jacksonville.
Mario Manningham at Washington
       Washington's defense is downright awful this season and will be in trouble against the solid Giants. Look for Manningham to pick up where he left off last season with three consecutive 100 yard games. And with Steve Smith gone, he will be getting even more chances to shine.

Chad Ochocinco at Miami
       His first regular season game with the new offense doesn't bode well for Ochocinco. And with so many weapons in New England, Ocho may find it tough to get the ball. That and Miami's solid cornerback corps will make it a challenge. If anything, Ocho will mainly help out Wes Welker's value.
Dez Bryant vs New York Jets
       I believe that Dez is a great breakout candidate for this season, but it won't start in week 1. If you have better options, you are much safer benching Bryant.
Sidney Rice at San Francisco
       This will be a common sit 'em all season. Rice has done nothing in his career without Brett Favre throwing to him. And oh, he's got Tavaris Jackson back. Just dandy.
GUT PICK: Jordy Nelson vs Saints
       With so many options for the Saints to cover, Nelson will have a field day in the season opener. My gut says 120 yards and 1 touchdown.

Ben Watson vs Cincinnati 
Jimmy Graham at Green Bay
Kellen Winslow vs Detroit
GUT PICK: Lance Kendricks

Tony Gonzalez at Chicago

       I'm not going to tell you what kickers to start. I mean really? You have only one on your team right now so start him. Then once byes start begin to play your matchups and weather. Do what you have to do.

'EM: DST's
       You should for the most part only have one defense on your roster so start that. If you really are concerned with a defense for this week like the Packers or the Saints, look at the Browns, Chiefs, and Seahawks,

1 comment:

  1. Ray Rice scored 30 points this week. Good call :)