Love/Hate Players: 2013

Here it is folks. My master list. Players I love. And players I hate. I do this every year and would recommend that everyone come up with a list of their own for draft preparation. And if you don't? Well, use mine and maybe you'll win four of eight leagues like I did last year. All kidding aside, enjoy this fantasy season and do some damage.

Player denotations:

Player name, position, team (Average Draft Position, My Draft Position): Reasons 

Here are the players that I LOVE:

Matt Stafford, QB, Lions (58.0, 50) VALUE, COMEBACK: Stafford has now put together back-to-back full seasons after being labeled injury prone in his first two. And while Stafford's pass attempts increased last year, every major statistical category got worse. Why? Perhaps mechanics, drops, or Calvin Johnson getting tackled at the one yard line at least five times. Still, he finished tenth among quarterbacks and probably can't be worse than last year. He is well worth a five or sixth rounder (I recently got him in the seventh) and has legitimate top five potential. He represents great value in a deep quarterback class and I expect him to comeback and return to numbers closer to his 2011 season.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (80.4, 66) VALUE, UNDERRATED: Romo has been underrated in fantasy for a long time. Since 2007, he has never thrown less than 26 touchdowns or less than 4,000 yards (besides his injured 2010 season). Like Stafford, Romo brings tremendous value for being the 12th quarterback off the board. He finished eighth last season and for being an eighth round pick, he may be one of the biggest bargains this season. 

Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins (48.1, 41) VALUE: RGIII would be going higher if there was not so much uncertainty with his injury. He finished in the top five for quarterbacks last year and could easily crack the top five again. While there are injury concerns, getting him 30 picks later than Peyton Manning (who scored the same as RGIII last year), is a great value. If he's there in the fifth round, I'll take him.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans (24.4, Ahead of Forte, Gore, MJD) VALUE, COMEBACK, TEAM IMPROVEMENTS: CJ2K might finally be back. A vastly improved offensive line and another year of experience for Jake Locker bodes well for Johnson. He's always had big play potential but has a great chance to find some consistency this year. While he may not return close to 2,000 yards, I do expect him to make a comeback and possibly crack the top 10 this year.

Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins (67.3, 52) VALUE, THE MAN, SLEEPER: Like Bell, Miller figures to be "the man" this year. Daniel Thomas has been uninspiring and Miller brings 4.40 speed to a revamped Miami offense. Assuming Miller does take the majority of carries, I think he has great potential to be a top 15 running back. Keep your eye on him on draft day and pull the trigger before someone else does.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles (12.4, Ahead of Richardson, Morris) TEAM IMPROVEMENTS, COMEBACK: I loved Shady last year but he was underutilized and missed three games. But Chip Kelly's offense will surely use him to the fullest and I expect a big comeback on his part. Hopefully improved quarterback play, a speedy offensive line, and an up-tempo offense will resurrect McCoy. Especially in PPR leagues, McCoy is a fantastic option over the likes of Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson.

Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams (96.9, 75) VALUE, THE MAN: Richardson represents the last starting running back you can get in the draft. But for him to go in the 11th round says a lot about his team and himself. Nonetheless, he brings value as such a late pick especially with Isaiah Pead's suspension and fumbling troubles. Richardson figures to be "the man" and should be snatched up as a solid backup.

Reggie Bush, RB, Lions (45.7, Ahead of McFadden, Ball, Sproles) VALUE, THE MAN, PPR: Detroit running backs Mikel Leshore and Joique Bell caught a combined 86 passes last year. Now in comes Reggie, and I expect him to not only get most of those but to also get most of the carries. Bush is one of the better of the lackluster running backs going in the fourth to fifth round and carries great value in PPR leagues.

Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders (Undrafted, 150): SLEEPER, INJURY-PRONE STARTER, PPR: If McFadden gets hurt this year, which history says will happen at some point, then Reece will figure to be in line for carries. But his real potential is in PPR leagues where last year he compiled 52 catches. And in the three games where he did receive 10 or more carries, he scored a combined 37 points. Not bad.

Randall Cobb, WR, Packers (35.7, Ahead of Welker, Johnson, Jackson) BREAKOUT, PPR: He's my breakout candidate for this year. With favorite Greg Jennings gone Cobb is the guy in Green Bay. He has the potential for 100 catches and the only thing that might stop him is his teammates. James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and even Jermichael Finley will get plenty of targets as well keeping Cobb from being a true number one option. But I'll draft Cobb within the first 10 receiver picks with no hesitation.

Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers (124.9, 115) SLEEPER, OPPORTUNITY: If he stays healthy, Brown could really turn heads. He came into the NFL as a polished, NFL-ready receiver who could run great routes. Unfortunately, injuries have doomed him. But he finally might be ready and now the injury of Danario Alexander has paved way. Keep an eye on his health during the preseason and if he looks healthy, he could develop into a solid number two option.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs (56.8, 49) TEAM IMPROVEMENTS, VALUE: Goodbye, Matt Cassel. Hello, Alex Smith. Hello, offensive line. Bowe finally has a decent quarterback and team.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers (67.8, 57) UNDERRATED, VALUE, THE MAN, SLEEPER: Brown failed to impress when I thought he would last year. But with Mike Wallace finally out of the picture, it's Brown's time to shine. He's got elusive speed and solid hands and is trusted by Big Ben to get first downs. He's underrated and a great sleeper to target this year.

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens (69.8, 61) VALUE, THE MAN, BREAKOUT: Assuming Joe Flacco is still Joe Flacco, then Smith will still have inconsistent numbers. But he is Flacco's best option and I expect Smith to breakout this year. He flashed potential with big games against New England and San Diego last year. Let's hope he can do that more often now.

Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars (82.6, 75): VALUE, SLEEPER: On a team with such bad quarterback play, it's impressive that he put up nine double digit games. While he is dealing with concussion problems, Shorts is a great sleeper that makes this such a deep wide receiver pool.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts (87.6, 74) VALUE, SLEEPER: Hilton impressed last year with blazing speed and he earned the trust of Andrew Luck. As Reggie Wayne continues to age, Hilton will be relied on more heavily and can improve on his impressive rookie campaign. He is currently listed as the number three receiver. But that folks, will change.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers (112.0, 100) SLEEPER: Paired alongside Antonio Brown, Sanders has a chance to finally make some noise. Expect a lot of short passes going his way and solid production as a number three receiver.

Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (119.7, 105): SLEEPER

Greg Little, WR, Browns (155.6, 140): SLEEPER

Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns (129.7, 100) RAW, SLEEPER, TEAM IMPROVEMENTS: All three of the guys should benefit from the scheme change in Cleveland. Brandon Weeden has looked much better compared to last season and Cameron and Gordon have looked fantastic this preseason. Granted, it is preseason, but it's worth noting. And hear this: Cameron has the potential to be the next Jimmy Graham. Maybe it won't be this year as he still has a lot to learn of the game, but he has looked great in the Browns' vertical offense.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots (45.9, 45) THE MAN (when healthy): Despite missing five games last season, Gronk finished second among tight ends in points. So even if he does miss the first six games, that's mean you can still have the best tight end for the last 10 games. And the fifth ranked tight end and fifteenth ranked tight end really aren't too different so any backup will suffice. He's worth a pick and if he does managed to come back sooner than expected, then you have a steal.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers (103.2, 90) OPPORTUNITY: Love might be a little strong of a word for Jermichael Finley. How about just "like moderately more than this continually disappointing bum." With Greg Jennings gone, Finley might finally live up to the hype. His drops have always been a problem but they've always been mental, not physical. Packers' reporter Vic Ketchman says Finley has the best hands on the team and that Finley has zoned in this season and has a new found focus. If Finley finally earns the trust of Rodgers, he will be a steal.

Tim Tebow, QB/FB/TE, Patriots (N/A, Never) MAN CRUSH: I love him. Just not in fantasy. Nor for his real life skill.

Here are the players that I HATE:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (9.5, 15) DEPTH, TOO HIGH: I love him. He will be a top five quarterback easily. But he is not worth a first round pick. Not with this kind of depth at quarterback and lack of depth at running back.

Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady DEPTH, TOO HIGH: Same issue here. None of these guys are worth where they are going. But if you can get Brees in the third and Manning/Brady in the fourth, that's where you'll find value.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks (61.2, Behind Romo, Luck) INJURIES, DECLINE: With Percy Harvin out for a while, Wilson's value certainly takes a hit. I do not think there will be much improvement over last season and think it's more likely than not that he will finish out of the top 10 for quarterbacks.

Montee Ball, RB, Broncos (43.8, 50) ROOKIE, RB COMPETITION, TOO HIGH: He has done nothing to take hold of the top spot in Denver and is struggling with blitz pickup. Those are bad signs for a team with Peyton Manning. Expect modest production for a guy whose ceiling is that of Joseph Addai's.

Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins (12.0, Behind McCoy) DECLINE: The odds of Morris replicating his phenomenal rookie season are slim. And if Mike Shanahan ever goes back to his old ways of rotating running backs like crazy, then you've got a interesting pick here.

Trent Richardson, RB, Browns (10.2, Behind McCoy) INJURY-PRONE: Cleveland's offense is a major sleeper this year in part of Richardson. But he has been banged up his whole career and could turn into a Brian-Westbrook-like player: Great numbers but not on the field enough. He could be a stud, but he could also crush the playoff hopes of your team.

Packers’ Running Backs: TOO MANY, UNCERTAINTY, NO “THE MAN”: Eddie Lacy is starting to look like "the man" but the situation is a huge unknown. Lacy and DuJuan Harris figure to be most involved but at best they'll split carries. And even James Starks, Johnathan Franklin, or Alex Green could take some carries. Avoid this situation.

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders (39.0, 48) INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE: This is a yearly concern. McFadden has never played more than 13 games in a season. He's like Brian Westbrook but not even as good. Therefore, it is simple. Don't draft him unless he plummets.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (46.3, 55) INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE, INJURY-PRONE: Read about Darren McFadden.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans (30.4, 37) INJURY-PRONE, AGE, RUN-HEAVY: Johnson rebounded from an off season and put up great numbers in Houston. Unfortunately, he is not getting younger and the Texans remain a run-heavy team. He is the perfect case of a high-risk, high-reward player.

Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers (79.6, 90) OLD, SLOW, RUN-HEAVY: He is old and, despite a great playoff run, he remains a mediocre fantasy option. He has not topped 1,000 yards or 7 touchdowns over the past three years. In other words, don't count on the young Anquan to show up.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants (55.3, 65) INJURY-PRONE, DEPTH: Nicks' days as a borderline number one receiver could be over. He has never played a whole season and is in a position where there is loads of talent. I'd rather get someone like Shorts or Hilton much later in the draft.

Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins (48.2, 55) NEW TEAM, UNDERACHIEVER: This pick rides heavily on the progression of Ryan Tannehill. If he improves, then Wallace could put up similar numbers to his prime days. But that's a big if. And no matter how much Tannehill improves, he is no Ben Roethlisberger.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (78.2, 100) DECLINE, RUN-HEAVY: Hm. Isn't there that guy who runs the ball a lot on this team.\? Oh yeah, that guy: Adrian Peterson. While Rudolph was a legitimate red zone threat last season, he caught just 53 passes. And 9 of those passes were touchdowns. There's almost no way his touchdown-to-catch ratio will be that high again and a decline in production makes sense.

Stephen Gostowski, K, Patriots (101.2, LAST ROUND) DO PEOPLE EVER LISTEN!?, TOO HIGH: Please, for the love of God, do not. I repeat DO NOT take a kicker this early. 

Seahawks DST (70.2, 100) TOO HIGH: This is far too high for a defense. Enough said. Don't miss out on depth for a defense this early.

Quarterback Consistency Ratings

Using standard scoring (6 points for all touchdowns, 1 point for 25 passing yards), I have put together a consistency chart from last season. When it comes to fantasy football, consistency is quite possibly the most important factor when it comes to drafting players. There are players like Devery Henderson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Beanie Wells who can produce monster weeks. Then they follow up with a dud. The main problem with these players is that they are not reliable week to week players. So finding players who can produce on a weekly basis is essential to winning.

The chart (below) is pretty straight forward and does not need too much analysis. But here are a couple of my quick notes from the chart.

• Aaron Rodgers does have a real argument to be the number one overall pick. Talk about consistent. 
• While Matt Stafford and Cam Newton are considered elite this year, there is a solid drop-off from Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
• Of the top 10 last year, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers produced the most duds.
• Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, and Newton were the only QB's with multiple freak games. None for Brady or Michael Vick.
• While Vick disappointed, he was not as inconsistent as Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, or Philip Rivers (Although he did miss more games).
• Ben Roethlisberger really had some duds, but he also flashed freak potential.
• Of quarterbacks outside of the top 10, Tebow really is a solid option. If he were not a backup in real life, he could make an impact again in the fantasy world. 
• Peyton Manning is clearly not here. But if we looked any of Manning's previous seasons, I'm pretty sure he'd be near the top. Just a hunch.

So here are the quarterback consistency ratings from last year.

But before you lay your eyes on this graph, I apologize for the sheer ugliness. This is why I am no longer a Computer Science major. This stuff just did not click in my brain. And no friends, for whatever dumb reason, there is no "inset table button". Rather, I had to do the whole shabang in html. Fun, huh? No. Not. At. All. If I ever do a running backs or wide receivers consistency chart, you can bet I'll hire a CS major to help me. Seriously, how the heck does it not line up? I must have spent about 20 minutes just trying to make it line up and this is what I got. Sigh. Enjoy.

* Update. Three hours later and I have figured it out. Brilliant! The chart's columns are lined up!

	Freak	Stud	Great	Start	Dud
Player	> 35	25	20	15	<15	Inj/Sit	% Great
Rodgers	5	7	3	0	0	1	100.00
Brees	4	6	3	2	1	0	81.25
Brady	1	8	4	3	0	0	81.25
Stafford	3	5	3	3	2	0	68.75
Newton	2	7	2	2	3	0	68.75
E.Manning	0	7	3	1	5	0	62.50
Romo	1	5	2	5	2	1	53.33
Ryan	1	4	2	5	4	0	43.75
Rivers	0	4	2	5	5	0	37.50
Sanchez	0	3	4	3	6	0	43.75
Vick	0	5	2	2	4	3	53.85
Fitzpatrick	0	3	1	5	7	0	25.00
Big Ben	1	1	2	4	7	1	26.67
Smith	0	0	5	3	8	0	31.25
Flacco	0	2	1	4	9	0	18.75
Dalton	0	2	2	4	8	0	25.00
Freeman	0	1	2	4	8	1	20.00
Hasselbeck	0	0	5	2	9	0	31.25
Tebow	0	3	1	5	3	4	33.33
Schaub	0	1	4	1	4	6	50.00

Early 2012 Quarterback Tiers

Tier 1: The Mega Elite
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady

Who I want the most: Aaron Rodgers. This is quite possibly the easiest decision in this draft. Aaron Rodgers never once scored less than 20 points last season, unless you count week 17 against the Lions when Matt Flynn went off. He scored over 30 points seven times and 40 points twice. Aaron Rodgers was no doubt the most consistent and highest scoring quarterback, and he still believes that he has room for improvement. He has a legitimate case to be number one overall, but is nevertheless a top 5 overall pick.

Tier 2: The Elite
3. Drew Brees
4. Cam Newton
5. Matt Stafford

Who I want the most: Drew Brees. While this is a tough call, Brees is hands down the most proven of the bunch. Stafford is still an injury concern and there is no way I expect Newton to replicate his 14 rushing touchdowns. While the Saints are a bit troublesome with the whole bounty scandal, expect Brees to still be one of the safest and best picks of the draft.

Tier 3: The Rock Solid Value
6. Tony Romo
7. Michael Vick
8. Philip Rivers
9. Eli Manning
10. Peyton Manning

Who I want the most: Michael Vick. This year, Vick is a bargain. Rather than being drafted in the first round like last year, Vick should slip past the second and be available between the 3rd and 5th rounds. Jump on him. Last year's disappointment still ranked him 11th among all quarterbacks even with only 13 games played. And while I expected his rushing touchdowns from 2010 to decrease, I did not expect a 1 rushing touchdown season. He still averaged 8 yards a carry last season and has elite potential. Take your chances, but be sure to get a solid backup in case of injury.

Bust potential: Philip Rivers. While I was high on Rivers last year, this year worries me. Ryan Mathews is becoming a feature back and Rivers lost Vincent Jackson. While Rivers should still produce, he is more of a risk than previous years.

Tier 4: The Producers
11. Ben Roethlisberger
12. Matt Ryan
13. Matt Schaub

Who I want the most: Ben Roethlisberger. He has weapons in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. He also no longer has Rashard Mendenhall, which may actually help Big Ben's numbers. They will rely more on their passing attack and I think Roethlisberger will finish as a top 10 quarterback. Matt Ryan, who ranked in the top 10 last year, could also be a bargain with Turner aging and elite weapons in Roddy White and Julio Jones. If you miss out on any of the top 10 guys, do not be afraid to jump on either of these two.

Tier 5: The Rest
14. Jay Cutler
15. Robert Griffin III
16. Joe Flacco
17. Josh Freeman
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick
19. Andrew Luck
20. Tim Tebow

Who I want the most: Robert Griffin III. Or Tim Tebow. Griffin has huge upside in an above average offense in Washington. His running ability puts him into the Vick/Newton territory as he should benefit from 500+ rushing yards and around 5 rushing touchdowns. And as for Tim Tebow, well you know, I love him. Do not draft him, but keeps tabs on him because there is one current starting quarterback I could see Tebow overtaking. And that man is Mark Sanchez.

Sleeper Potential: Jay Cutler. As much as it pains me to say this, Cutler could be in for a big season. He is reunited with Brandon Marshall and has solid options in Chicago. With an offensive line that improved as the year went along, Cutler might actually see time in the pocket. While I won't be surprised to see his pouty face multiple times, Cutler might finally produce a better than average season.

Extra Sleeper: Nate Amodio. This season, instead of being a Woodhead/Tebow hybrid, he will be called upon to be the Aaron Rodgers of the returning playoff team, the Pineapple Chunkers. With an excellent scrimmage in the offseason already, his arm looks sharp and his decision making has been great. However, a second pulled hammy in 4 months is making him less than a surefire option. And he needs his mobility to be top-notch because as you all know, he can barely see over his own lineman in the pocket. But given a healthy body and handlebar mustache, I expect nothing less than excellence.

Deep Sleeper: JaMarcus Russell. I can't imagine waking this guy up. He slept through 3 NFL seasons.

Michael Vick, the Number One Pick?

Michael Vick’s reemergence last season with Philadelphia was the fantasy story of the year and led countless owners to fantasy championships. His 57 point outburst against Washington in week 10 ranks as one of the best performances in history and is one of the reasons some people are considering Vick as the number 1 overall  pick in this upcoming fantasy season. My response to that: NO. Nope. Don’t fall for it. No.

There is no doubt Vick is extremely gifted and is a top 5 fantasy quarterback, but number 1 overall? I just do not see it. For starters, there are two extremely safe options in Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson and maybe even Arian Foster. There is a huge ceiling for Vick, but I think the risk is too great for the number 1 pick.  With Vick, there are several concerns that I have with him.

We all know that much of Vick’s fantasy value stems from his uncanny rushing ability and last year was no exception. For his career, Vick’s rushing stats have accounted for 42.3 % of his total fantasy output. Last year was surprisingly low as his rushing totals accounted for only 38 % of his total. However, his 9 rushing touchdowns in just 12 games contributed to much of that, putting Vick into the elite quarterback category.  Now imagine that for a full season! But wait, even for Vick, that will be extremely hard to repeat as rushing touchdowns vary greatly year to year. For his 4 previous full seasons, Vick averaged 4.75 rushing touchdowns a season. Vick should be good for about 5 rushing touchdowns a year, but 9 just seems highly unlikely again. While 5 is good and a great bonus for a quarterback, it wont be enough to make me draft Vick first.

Anyone remember when Braylon Edwards scored 16 touchdowns in 2007 and then bet next year he would have twice as many touchdown as Michael Phelps had gold medals? Well, he had 3 the next season. I think Phelps won that bet… While Edwards is not on the talent level of Vick, my point is that touchdown production is tough to match on a yearly basis. And with regards to rushing touchdowns, the fluctuation among individuals is great and can vary based on a number of factors. For Vick to match 9 would require many things to go right.

Will we be seeing Vick on the sideline this year?

And the thing that scares me most of Michael Vick is him being one of the most hit quarterbacks in the league. In just 12 games last season, Vick was sacked 34 times and hit often on scrambles.Vick was sacked at the fourth highest rate in the league and the hits will continue. Vick is no doubt electric, but taking so many hits can make fantasy owners cringe. It could be only a matter of time before he is on the sideline. After all, in his 8 seasons in the league, Vick has played just ONE full season.

Another interesting stat is Vick’s completion percentage from last year. He set a career high with a percentage of 62.6 %, more than 6 percent higher than his previous career high. This can attributed to not only his personal improvement, but the best talent he has ever had around him. But such a high jump worries me that it will be tough to match once again. Along these lines, he threw for 3,000 yards for just the first time in his career and had a sky high yards per completion. This is partly because of the talent surrounding him and the Eagles ranking 8th in yards after catch according to hosted.stats.com. If anything, these could be seen as signs that Vick will continue to improve and be a fantasy stud. But should he be the number 1 pick?

The answer is still no. But would I take him 6th? Maybe. 10th? There’s a good chance. Early 2nd round? Not even a question in my mind. For Vick, consistency is still an issue and I would much rather have Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson before him. My top 2 quaterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are extremely consistent and have proven their worth of being picked late in the 1st round. Drafting any quarterback early is a risky strategy as you could easily miss out on an elite running back, even with a deep class this year. But Vick has unlimited fantasy potential and could make or break someone’s season. For risk takers, Vick is a perfect fit around the 5th pick and could be a steal even there. He could also be a huge letdown, and leave you looking for, gulp, Rex Grossman on the waivers.

Stats found on nfl.com and hosted.stats.com