Early 2012 Wide Receiver Tiers

Tier 1: The Elite
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Roddy White
4. Andre Johnson

Who I want the most: Roddy White. Honestly, the Madden curse does scare me. It really does. While I would love Calvin Johnson, he will likely go in the top 8 which is just a bit too high for me. Even with the emergence of Julio Jones, White will still be the man. White still led the league with 182 targets last year. He will not be forgotten. And with Michael Turner on the decline, White will be in for another stellar year.

Bust alert: Andre Johnson. He is still elite, yes. But, too many injury concerns and a more run-oriented team makes me less likely to pick Johnson this year. This doesn't mean you neccessarily pass on him; just be cautious and make sure he is your guy.

Tier 2: The Near Elite
5. Wes Welker
6. Greg Jennings
7. Mike Wallace

Who I want the most: Wes Welker. He always seems to be drafted a little lower than most big time receivers. But he remains one of the most consistent and productive receivers of the past. Last year, he was completely healthy and had the second most targets, second most receiving yards, and most catches of anyone. He remains a PPR monster and is a rock solid pick. Mike Wallace is in a close second as he is no longer just a deep threat, but now an all around fantasy wide receiver. And while I love Jennings, the emergence of Nelson and the mix of Jermichael Finley and Randall Cobb make it tougher to depend on Jennings as a true number 1 wideout.

Tier 3: Still Number 1's
8. A.J. Green
9. Hakeem Nicks
10. Steve Smith
11. Brandon Marshall

Who I want the most: A.J. Green. This kid can play. With him and Andy Dalton having one year officially under their belt, things can only go up. In just 116 targets, Green produced 1,057 yards and 7 touchdowns as just a rookie. I would not be surprised to see him at more around 1,400 yards and double digit touchdowns this year.

New team: Brandon Marshall. He is reunited with Jay Cutler and could explode this season. He was looked at as a risky pick last season but still produced. Now, although still a bit risky due to his looming personality disorder, he could be a steal and produce like a clear-cut number 1 receiver.

Tier 4: Can They Do It Again?
12. Jordy Nelson
13. Victor Cruz
14. Julio Jones
15. Dez Bryant

Who I want the most: Jordy Nelson. This may be because he is a Packer in this case, but Nelson really played like an elite last year. And, he has this beast by the name of Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Nelson is a big play threat every down and can put up monster weeks. But this entire group is extremely young and talented. Cruz and Jones exploded onto the scene last year and Cruz may have the toughest time replicating his numbers. The question for all of these studs is: Can they do it again?

Tier 5: The Less Certain
16. Brandon Lloyd
17. Miles Austin
18. Percy Harvin
19. Marques Colston
20. Demaryius Thomas

Player I want the most: Brandon Lloyd. Tom Brady. Enough said. For the first time in his career, Lloyd gets an elite quarterback to throw to him. Even though there are many options in New England, Lloyd could be the defensive backs forget about. Remember his monster season in Denver with Kyle Orton throwing to him? Well, hello Tom Brady. And, Lloyd did an awesome video for the Madden cover. This will make anyone want to draft him.

Tier 6: Potential
21. Vincent Jackson
22. Steve Johnson
23. Kenny Britt
24. Jeremy Maclin
25. Dwayne Bowe

Player I want the most: Kenny Britt. I like this guy more than others do and here's why: big game potential. He is a bit of a risk, but could be well worth it. In a semi-healthy 2010 season, he put up nearly 800 yards and 9 touchdowns in just 12 games. There's potential, but he may be the biggest risk of this group.

AVOID AVOID AVOID: Dwayne Bowe. Like I said last year, he has Matt Cassel throwing him the ball. We saw his numbers dip big time last year. Sadly, it could happen again.

Tier 7: Upside
26. Antonio Brown
27. Eric Decker
28. Robert Meachem
29. DeSean Jackson
30. Santonio Holmes
31. Pierre Garcon
32. Lance Moore
33. Malcolm Floyd

Who I want the most: Antonio Brown and Eric Decker. I love the upside Garcon with RGIII here, but I cannot resist Antonio Brown. He came out of nowhere to become one of Big Ben's favorite targets last season and produced 1108 yards with 69 catches. He should be the most consistent of this bunch and is worth the mid round pick. I also cannot resist Decker. He has more NFL style experience than his counterpart Demaryius Thomas and has potential to be a PPR machine. Hear it now, I would not be surprised if Decker finishes in the top 10 for wide receivers.

Tier 8: Youngins' Surrounded by Oldies
34. Anquan Boldin
35. Denarius Moore
36. Torrey Smith
37. Reggie Wayne

Who I want the most: Reggie Wayne. When was the last time Wayne was not drafted in the top 10? Let's say, oh, 2004. He certainly has lost a step, but he could be a steal if he and Luck click. Don't get your hopes too high. But at this spot, Wayne is a very low risk, high reward pick.

Tier 9: The Rest
38. Michael Crabtree
39. Sidney Rice
40. Darrius Heyward-Bey
41. Justin Blackmon
42. Nate Washington
43. Titus Young
44. Laurent Robinson
45. Rueben Randle
46. Randy Moss
47. Mike Williams
48. Mario Manningham
49. Leonard Hankerson
50. Greg Little

Who I want the most: Sidney Rice. There's no one with major upside here and nothing exciting either. But Rice has Matt Flynn who could either boom or bust in Seattle. Rice has had only one good season and that was with Brett Favre. And thank goodness Tavaris Jackson should no longer be throwing to him. Clearly, that has not worked out. And take a flier on Randy Moss if he is available late. He could be quite the steal... Or literally do nothing.

2011 WR Tiers

       Every year, wide receivers are probably the hardest to predict for fantasy success. Of the top 20 from each previous season, only about 10 remain there the next season. So 50% of the top 20 will be there this year and a new 10 players should fill those spots. So here is my attempt at putting these guys into tiers for the 2011 season.


1: Best of Best: Andre Johnson
      Player I want most: Andre Johnson. He is a class of his own and the only receiver that could possibly warrant a top 10 selection. He may be a quiet and humble player, but he knows when to give a guy a smackdown. 

2-5: Elite: Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings

       Player I want most: Roddy White. He is the most consistent here although do not be surprised if Fitzgerald can make a comeback to the top 2. Even with the likes of John Skelton, Derek Anderson, and Max Hall quarterbacking, Fitzy still put up a solid 90 catches, 1137 yards, and 6 TD's. With Kolb now at Qb, his value could shoot up.

       The only injury risk here is Calvin Johnson who seems to get nicked up every year. But with the most freakish talent of them all and a healthy QB, Megatron may be ready for a mega year. And Jennings is no doubt a great receiver, but may find the ball less with the return of Jermichael Finely and a plethora of targets for Aaron Rodgers. 

6-10: Still Number 1 Options: Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, Reggie Wayne

       Player I want most: Vincent Jackson. This is a very interesting tier as Wayne has fallen more than we've seen and newcomers Nicks and Wallace make a splash. Philip Rivers produces no matter who his receivers are and with Jackson back to action, he figures to be a prime target and in line for a great season.

       Mike Wallace is simply explosive with 21.0 yards per catch last season and is still Big Ben's number 1 target. Austin appears to be the safest of the Cowboy's receivers and with Romo back, Austin will succeed. But Reggie Wayne, a perennial producer has dropped due to several reasons. He had a career high 12 drops last season and appears to have lost a bit of his step.  Even coming off a career high in receptions, he is now 32 and other options in Indy have stepped up making Wayne a solid, but not as surefire option.

11-15: Solid: DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Marshall

       Player I want most: Dwayne Bowe. He broke out last year and is primed for another big year. But his success depends greatly on Matt Cassell's consistency. Bowe has top 10 potential although will most likely hover between the 10 to 15 mark.

       DeSean Jackson is another playmaker who relies on big plays to produce fantasy points. Him and Maclin should both be solid options in the fast Philly offense. Marshall here is the biggest question but also has great potential to return to his old form. With the QB situation looking ever so slightly better in Miami, Marshall could rebound nicely, or plummet even more.  In PPR leagues, jump on Welker. He will not disappoint. 

16-20: The Hard to Predict: Dez Bryant, Mike Williams, Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Lloyd

       Player I want most: Marques Colston: Drew Brees spreads the ball like crazy in New Orleans, but Colston still puts up solid seasons.  He has the best track record here and you know what you will get with him.

       Williams and Lloyd were both major surprises last season. While Williams could potentially improve, Lloyd has nowhere to go but down and is a risky pick. Bryant and Holmes each have great potential with solid receivers around them. Bryant cold even be the best receiver in Dallas, but it is just too hard to predict with these guys.

21-25: Potential: Kenny Britt, Steve Johnson, Mario Manningham, Austin Collie, Percy Harvin

       Player I want most: Kenny Britt. With Hasselbeck or Locker at QB, I expect Britt to develop into the solid receiver we saw glimpses of last season.

       Look for Collie in the mid rounds as he could return to his pre-concussion form. As for Harvin, with McNabb throwing and Rice gone, he will be the main target and a good mid option.

26-35: A Bundle of Players: Anquan Boldin, Chad Ochocinco, Santana Moss, Sidney Rice, Pierre Garcon, Malcom Floyd, Mike Thomas, Johnny Knox, Steve Smith (CAR), Michael Crabtree

       Player I want most: Chad Ochocinco. Now in New England, he has great potential and will be available much later in the draft.  He is worth the risk as he could really shine with Brady.

       None of these players are sure things. The safest may be Boldin and you'll have to probably have to pick at least one of these guys so good luck.

36-47: Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Lance Moore, Julio Jones, Jerome Simpson, Deion Branch, Davone Bess, Robert Meachem, Roy Williams, James Jones, Hines Ward

       Player I want most: Julio Jones. With Michael Jenkins gone, look for Jones to get a fair share of targets as Roddy White will draw many double teams.

       There's potential here as many of these guys will be hit or miss. In PPR leagues, look for Davone Bess who quietly caught 80 passes.

Sleepers: Jacoby Ford, Steve Breaston, Danny Amendola, Emmanuel Sanders

       Ford showed big play potential and Amendola is a great PPR bargain. Breaston has a chance with a new team and Sanders could find himself in the mix in Pittsburgh.