2013 Running Back Tiers and Consistencies

Welcome back, old school fantasy football days. The rave of quarterbacks in the first round is (or should be) over. Back are the days of a first round that should consist of all running backs and maybe one or two wide receivers. As you've read in my previous articles, the quarterback pool is deeper than JaMarcus Russell's previous gut. R.I.P Russell's belly. So running backs are the way to go and it is a necessity to draft if not one, but two or three in the first four rounds this year.

Not only is there a ridiculously deep quarterback class but the wide receiver pool is just as deep too. Greg Jennings and Cecil Shorts ranked 29th and 30th? Gimme dat value! So while you can wait for your quarterback and wide receivers, stock up on running backs this year. After the top ten to twelve running backs, it is an absolute crap shoot. How's a running back who has never played more than 13 games in a season sound? Or a guy who once ran for 2,000 yards and has yet to come anywhere close since? Or a man who held out then was injured for most of last season? Trust me, it's not good. Just ask the guy who ended up with Vick Ballard and Eddie Lacy as his starters in my first mock draft. I still cringe thinking of that.

So get your running backs. Get five or six of them and pray that two of them will turn out alright. Remember, the gap between the 1st running back and the 20th is typically around 200 points. The difference between the 1st and 10th quarterback was 74 points. The difference between the 1st and 20th wide receiver was 89 last year. Do the math. You can miss out on elite wide receivers and still be alright. You can get Tony Romo in the 10th round and be just fine. But if you wait on a running back, you might just have Ballard and Lacy. Don't wait. At last, here are the 2013 tiers.

Tier 1: The Elite

1. Adrian Peterson (ADP 1.2)

2. Arian Foster (ADP 2.4)

This is the most straight forward you can get. If you pick first or second, you will get either Peterson or Foster. And while the odds are against Peterson to replicate last season, both are clearly above the rest.

Who I want the most: Peterson. Not even a question. He really could be his own tier.

Tier 2: The Near Elite

3. Marshawn Lynch (ADP 4.0)

4. Doug Martin (ADP 5.5)

5. Ray Rice (ADP 5.5)

Lynch has proven himself over the past two seasons, Rice over the past four, and Martin, as I predicted, killed it last year. None of them have to worry about a running back committee (although Bernard Pierce will get his fair share) and all should remain top five options. No matter which one you pick, just know that they, Beast Mode, Muscle Hamster, and Little Ray boast some of the better nicknames.

Who I want the most: If you are going for year in and year out consistency then Rice is your guy. But Marshawn Lynch is second in rushing yards and third in touchdowns over the past two seasons. He should be your guy here. Seattle is committed to running the ball and Lynch will remain the center of their offense. The Muscle Hamster's stats are a bit skewed by his two monstrous games and Rice may have just enough carries taken away that Lynch should outshine them both this season.

Tier 3: The Rock Solid

6. Jamal Charles (ADP 7.1)

7. C.J. Spiller (ADP (9.3)

8. LeSean McCoy (ADP 12.7)

The rock solid backs here might just be the speediest backs in the game. Charles will get a boost with Andy Reid as his new head coach and a stable quarterback in Alex Smith. And Spiller, despite limited touches, had over 1,700 total yards and a ridiculous 6.0 yards per carry. With Fred Jackson often injured, Spiller is finally the main main in Buffalo and will get plenty of touches this year. I have McCoy higher than most people but think he is bound for a comeback season. After injuries and Andy Reid not feeding him the ball enough, McCoy can only get better. The Eagles drafted Lane Johnson to bolster and accommodate a fast paced offense. So behind Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense and a revamped line, McCoy should be able to return to his 2011 form.

Who I want the most: This is a tough on but I'll take Charles. Charles is still the most proven and has just as much explosiveness as the other guys here. And imagine what having a real NFL quarterback will do for Charles. I am expecting big things this season.

Tier 4: The Borderline 1's

9. Trent Richardson (ADP 9.9)

10. Steven Jackson (ADP 16.8)

11. Alfred Morris (ADP 10.6)

12. Stevan Ridley (ADP 20.8)

Richardson has the most upside here but is the most injured of the bunch. Jackson has been a rock with eight consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. Despite his age, he should be an upgrade over Michael Turner and he brings his pass-catching ability to the Falcon's passing attack. Morris surprised just about everyone as coach Mike Shanahan finally chose just one guy to carry the rock. But will he do it again? Ridley figures to be featured more with the New England offense that has lost Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and possibly Rob Gronkowski. Expect Ridley to be relied on in New England. And over the past three seasons, New England has the most rushes inside the 10 yard line. Get it, Ridley.

Who I want the most: Do I dare say Steven Jackson? He's still a workhorse and does not have as many question marks as the others. But Richardson is the obvious stud here. If the Browns vertical passing scheme really takes hold, expect Richardson to have plenty of room to run. But fantasy football is about minimizing your risk while still getting productivity. So I'll take Jackson.

Tier 5: The Question Marks

13. Matt Forte (ADP 18.9)

14. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP 26.8)

15. Frank Gore (ADP 23.4)

All these guys have great track records. But the future for all of them is up in the air. Forte, while solid when healthy, has missed six games in the past two seasons. Jones-Drew's holdout and injured season raises many questions marks. Fortunately, he is still just 27 and is in a contract year. And Frank Gore is getting more and more limited in carries (just five games with 20+ carries). He also has a crowded backfield in San Francisco. 

Who I want the most: As a Packers fan it pains me to say Matt Forte. Gore has held steady but is due for more of a decline and MJD is just so uncertain at the point. Forte and the Bears' steadily improving offense should provide plenty of fantasy points.

Tier 6: The Oh Boy I Have to Take One of These Guys?

16. Chris Johnson (ADP 24.6)

17. Darren McFadden (ADP 35.8)

18. DeMarco Murray (ADP 42.2)

19. Darren Sproles(ADP 44.2)

20. Reggie Bush (ADP 46.6)

Questions marks all over the place. Can CJ2K regain his 2,000 yard season form? Can McFadden last more than 13 games? Can Murray stay on the field? Will Sproles get enough touches in the crowded Saints backfield? Can Bush put up a quality season in Detroit?

Who I want the most: Can I say none? If it's a PPR league, it's obviously Sproles. If it's a standard league, well... The Raiders, whose zone blocking scheme did not fit McFadden, are switching back to a favorable power run scheme. Bush could shine but also disappears often. And the odds of Murray staying healthy are slim. So I'll take my chances on McFadden. Just know that none of these options are safe. None of them.

Tier 7: Can We Just Draft a Quarterback Now?

21. Le'Veon Bell (ADP 66.3)

22. David Wilson (ADP 37.3)

23. Montee Ball (ADP 40.1)

24. Lamar Miller (ADP 59.8)

25. Chris Ivory (ADP 57.7)

Two rookies, two second year players, and a guy with 256 career carries. At least Ball and Bell figure to be the main guys on their teams. Wilson and Miller even have the chance to be the unquestioned starter. So maybe it is not that bad. Wilson has Spiller-like potential, Ball will take over for long-gone Willis McGahee and injury-prone Knowshon Moreno, and Bell figures to replace the horrid combo of Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer. And Ivory has a chance to bring his career 5.1 yards per carry average (on just 256 carries) to the pitiful New York Jets.

Who I want the most: I'll take Bell. He will be good value by the time you pick him and could put up Rashard Mendenhall hay day numbers.

Tier 8: Dear God, We're Still Going

26. Ryan Mathews (ADP 61.6)

27. Benjarvus Green-Ellis (ADP 70.9)

28. Eddie Lacy (ADP 56.5)

29. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP 72.0)

30. Shane Vereen (ADP 86.7)

Bonus. Tim Tebow

Mathews has been a major disappointment with more broken collarbones than touchdowns last year. BGE is a slow, non-feature back and has competition with rookie Gio Bernard. Lacy could gather lots of touchdowns but is in a crowded backfield with Alex Green, DuJuan Harris, and Jonathan Franklin all in the picture. Bradshaw has Vick Ballrd and injuries to deal with. And Vereen should at least be relevant as he should take Danny Woodhead's touches.

Who I want the most: Mathews still has the highest upside here. But if Lacy wins the starting job outright, I'll take him. He could compile many of Aaron Rodger's short touchdown runs and passes and even John Kuhn's touchdowns. Lacy may not quite run for 1,000 yards, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 10 touchdowns. Just take that with a grain of salt as that number could also be 0. And you can't go wrong with Tebow. I hear the Canadian Football League has started online fantasy leagues. Oh wait, the Patriots signed him?

So there you have it. Have fun and get the aspirin ready for your running back situations. To help you out some more, here's a nice chart I made of the top running backs. It's pretty self explanatory but lets you see their consistency and ceiling based on last year's stats.

Name	Double Digit Games	20+ games
Adrian Peterson	13	8
Arian Foster	14	4
Marshawn Lynch	11	4
Doug Martin	12	3
Ray Rice	11	4
Jamal Charles	9	3
CJ Spiller	12	2
LeSean McCoy	10/12 (4 injured)	0
Trent Richardson	11/15 (1 injured)	1
Steven Jackson	7	0
Alfred Morris	12	3
Stevan Ridley	9	2
Matt Forte	9/15 (1 injured)	1
Maurice Jones-Drew	2/6 (9 injured)	1
Frank Gore	11	0
Chris Johnson	9	1
Darren McFadden	6/12 (4 injured)	0
DeMarco Murray	5/10 (6 injured)	0
Darren Sproles	9/13 (3 injured)	0
Chris Ivory	2/6 (10 no carries)	0
Reggie Bush	7	2
David Wilson	2/3 (with 10+ carries)	1
Montee Ball	N/A	N/A
Lamar Miller	1/2 (with 10 carries)	0
Le'Veon Bell	N/A	N/A
Ryan Mathews	1/12 (4 injured)	0
Benjarvus Green-Ellis	7/15 (1 DNP)	0
Eddie Lacy	N/A	N/A
Ahmad Bradshaw	7/15 (1 injured)	2
Shane Vereen	2/2 (with 10+ carries)	0
Tim Tebow	0	0

2013 Quarterback Tiers

Tiers tiers tiers. Of the past ten years I've been playing fantasy football, this could be the least useful year for quarterback tiers. Why you say? Because you could clump them up into a tier of twelve and say boom. There's a tier. As I've said before, the quarterback class is so deep that you can wait till the seventh round to draft one and be set. To get a more general overview of the quarterbacks this year, check out my previous article.

But that doesn't mean this is a complete waste of time. Knowing about what rounds you should target the different tiers and also figuring out your preferences among each tier is key. Also, doing mock drafts and knowing each player's average draft position is vital to getting the players you want. For this, the rounds I place each tier is where they should be drafted. The average draft position is based on ESPN drafts and is where they are being drafted (keep in mind it will vary from website to website and that needs to factor in to your draft).

Rounds 2-3: The Super Elite

1. Aaron Rodgers (ADP 9.9)

2. Drew Brees (ADP 14.3)

This is pretty straightforward. Since 2009, these guys have finished right next to each other at 1st and 2nd three times. And since 2009, neither has finished outside the top six quarterbacks. They are benchmarks for consistency and durability. You cannot go wrong with either of them. But no, I would not take either in the first round. Not this year folks.

Who I want the most: Who do you think? I want my boy the all-time passer rating leader. But actually, I'd prefer Brees here. You can get Brees slightly later than Rodgers (ADP 9.9 vs 14.3) and simply put, some fool is probably going to take Rodgers in the first anyway. Yet the biggest reasons I have for Brees is that Sean Payton is back and the possible emergence of a running game in Green Bay. We all know the chemistry Brees has with Payton and I expected the duo to replicate and improve upon last season. And with offensive line changes and high potential running backs in Green Bay, I expect Rodgers' yardage and touchdowns to be cut in to. I especially expect declines in Rodgers' own rushing stats in which he has averaged 279 yards and 3.6 touchdowns per season. While those aren't great by any means, they are usually what put him over the top of Brees and Tom Brady.

Rounds 3-5: The Elite

3. Peyton Manning (ADP 21.6)

4. Tom Brady (ADP 18.7)

5. Cam Newton (ADP 29.3)

First off, let me remind you that in a typical league, there's no way you'll get any of these guys in the fifth. But, you should be able to. People just don't get it. In the first ESPN experts mock draft, Brady and Manning went in the fourth while Newton went in the fifth. I highly doubt the people you play with will be that smart and patient. Nonetheless, as I said, wait, and reap the benefits.

As you can see, there are still no question marks in this deep quarterback class. Cam has ended any doubt that he could be the same QB he was as a rookie, Manning is back to full health and robot-like precision, and Brady is still Brady. I would take Manning over Brady simply because of all years where we've seen Brady's options, this could be the worst. With virtually no receivers besides the still unproven Danny Amendola, Brady will lean heavily on Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, both of whom have had their fair share of injuries (and in Hernandez's case, an arrest warrant).

Who I want the most: Despite the addition of Wes Welker in Denever, I'll actually take Cam here. While I do think Manning will have the better season, I don't think it will be that much better than Cam's. I mainly prefer Cam here because of the draft value and hopes to get him (realistically) in the fourth. As for Brady, just remember that he is still Brady. No matter who his receivers are, you can expect Brady to be Brady. Did I say that enough? Brady will be Brady. 

Rounds 4-7: The Up and Coming

6. Robert Griffin III (ADP 56.5) (Pending injury updates)

7. Matt Ryan (ADP 41.3)

8. Colin Kaepernick (ADP 43.7)

9. Russell Wilson (ADP 49.9)

A tier with three running sons of guns. But hear this folks, whether or not the read option sticks, they are changing the way the game is being played right now. Matt Ryan here is the only truly proven one here, but that doesn't mean I would trust the other three any less. But those three guys are the only ones I would even consider drafting a backup for. Because they run so much and are thus vulnerable to injuries, a backup could be worth it. But if you take anyone besides RGIII, Kaepernick, or Wilson please, please do not draft a backup. You don't need one.

Who I want the most: Matt Ryan. Tony Gonzalez is back and the addition of Steven Jackson gives the Falcons a running back who will play a role in their passing attack. Ryan finished seventh among QB's last year and has a chance to finally crack the top five this year. I trust him most of those not in the top five and expect big things as the Falcons are once again loaded in weapons.

Rounds 7-10: The Value Starters

10. Matt Stafford (ADP 64.4)

11. Tony Romo (ADP 80.5)

12. Andrew Luck (ADP 71.0)

These are the guys I'm targeting. They finished 11th, 9th, and 8th respectively and all are in a position to improve on that. You cannot go wrong with any of these and drafting one as your starter and it will allow you to have the stock up and running backs (and wide receivers). 

And for those of you who are thinking you might want to take one as your backup before I get my starter? Think again. Remember how last year worked when THREE people took backups before I got my eventual starting quarterback? Yeah, take a look at my championship belt why don't you. And do you really want to waste a roster spot on a quarterback who will never start over a top five QB? Or just give you headaches about which of your two QB's you want to start? And I have asked enough leading questions to make you never even ponder this decision again?

Who I want the most: Matt Stafford. Despite struggles last year, he still put together a solid season. While it was a far cry from his 2011 breakout campaign, I expect him to rebound. While he may not throw over 700 times this year, the additions of Reggie Bush and a slightly improved line can only help. And he's still got that guy Calvin Johnson. That helps too. And you can't go wrong with Romo either. Just because he can't win big games does not mean he is not a good fantasy option.

Rounds 11-16: The Rest

13. Eli Manning (ADP 92.9)

14. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 104.7)

15. Michael Vick (ADP 119.5)

16. Joe Flacco (ADP 112.9)

17. Philip Rivers (ADP 137.0)

18. Andy Dalton (ADP 131.0)

19. Sam Bradford (ADP 133.0)

20. Jay Cutler (ADP 137.4)

21. Matt Schaub (ADP 127.5)

22. Alex Smith (ADP 145.1)

23. Josh Freeman (ADP 136.7)

24. Carson Palmer (ADP 139.8)

25. Ryan Tannehill (ADP 145.1)

105. Tim Tebow (ADP N/A)

106. JaMarcus Russell (ADP N/A)

Time be blunt. None of the guys outside the top fifteen should be drafted. Don't waste a roster spot for a guy who won't be used. So. Pick up Eli for bye weeks. Keep a close eye on Vick in Kelly's new offense. Monitor Rivers to see if he can regain old form. And if he performs like he did with gloves on, perhaps he will. Monitor Palmer solely for his impact on Larry Fitzgerald. Watch Big Ben and Flacco. Watch Cutler to see what a grown baby looks like. Watch Tim Tebow warm up seats for Brady. And watch to see if JaMarcus can regain his eating form. It looks like he took some time off from that. And use the all of them as very solid bye week replacements. Boom.

Torn Hammy = Mock Draft Time!

Well, when you have a torn hamstring, you're usually pretty limited in what you can do. So my typical day this summer includes: reading dat Bible and spending time with God, NBA 2k, eating, sleeping, icing, anti-inflammatory drugs, getting surprise visits from girlfriend, and upper body lifting. And, of course, fantasy football mock drafts.

Like many other mock drafts, I wish this could be my real team. It's loaded at RB/WR. Absolutely loaded. And when you get Tony Romo in the 9th round, you can't help but feel giddy. If only people didn't take RGIII and Matt Stafford right before me as their backups! Then I would feel more like this.
So here's my roster:
QB: Tony Romo
RB: C.J. Spiller, Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush, Jacquizz Rodgers
WR: Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, Eric Decker
TE: Owen Daniels
K: Doesn't Matter
DST: Packers

So here's how the draft went. I would quantify the draft as having three idiotic boneheads because they took kickers in a round other than the last. But that's just my opinion.

And other than that, have a look. See my key points right after the draft summary. Feel free to comment and let me know how you think I did. Did I blow a pick? Did I wait too long on a quarterback? Am I hyping up this draft too much? Am I being unreasonable with money picks and terrible picks?

Red = Terrible pick (mostly based on value)
Green = Money pick
Blue = Questionable pick
Bold = My picks

Round: 1 (1) Team Crawford - Adrian Peterson RB (2) Team Deckelman - Arian Foster RB (3) Team Cacciotti - Doug Martin RB (4) Team Rodriguez - Marshawn Lynch RB (5) Team Jones - Ray Rice RB (6) Team lamborn - Jamaal Charles RB ** (7) Team amodio - C.J. Spiller RB (8) Team Easley - Trent Richardson RB (9) Team Palasky - Calvin Johnson WR (10) Team thomas - LeSean McCoy RB	Round: 2 (11) Team thomas - Steven Jackson RB (12) Team Palasky - A.J. Green WR (13) Team Easley - Dez Bryant WR ** (14) Team amodio - Alfred Morris RB (15) Team lamborn - Aaron Rodgers QB (16) Team Jones - Drew Brees QB (17) Team Rodriguez - Matt Forte RB (18) Team Cacciotti - Brandon Marshall WR (19) Team Deckelman - Frank Gore RB (20) Team Crawford - Peyton Manning QB
Round: 3 (21) Team Crawford - Demaryius Thomas WR (22) Team Deckelman - Julio Jones WR (23) Team Cacciotti - Chris Johnson RB (24) Team Rodriguez - Tom Brady QB (25) Team Jones - Maurice Jones-Drew RB (26) Team lamborn - Stevan Ridley RB ** (27) Team amodio - Percy Harvin WR (28) Team Easley - Cam Newton QB (29) Team Palasky - Jimmy Graham TE (30) Team thomas - David Wilson RB	Round: 4 (31) Team thomas - Darren McFadden RB (32) Team Palasky - Larry Fitzgerald WR (33) Team Easley - Darren Sproles RB ** (34) Team amodio - Randall Cobb WR (35) Team lamborn - Roddy White WR (36) Team Jones - Montee Ball RB (37) Team Rodriguez - Andre Johnson WR (38) Team Cacciotti - Vincent Jackson WR (39) Team Deckelman - Wes Welker WR (40) Team Crawford - Victor Cruz WR
Round: 5 (41) Team Crawford - Rob Gronkowski TE (42) Team Deckelman - Colin Kaepernick QB (43) Team Cacciotti - DeMarco Murray RB (44) Team Rodriguez - Marques Colston WR (45) Team Jones - Aaron Hernandez TE (46) Team lamborn - Reggie Wayne WR ** (47) Team amodio - Reggie Bush RB (48) Team Easley - Danny Amendola WR (49) Team Palasky - Vick Ballard RB (50) Team thomas - Mike Wallace WR	Round: 6 (51) Team thomas - Dwayne Bowe WR (52) Team Palasky - Eddie Lacy RB (53) Team Easley - Chris Ivory RB ** (54) Team amodio - Hakeem Nicks WR (55) Team lamborn - Ryan Mathews RB (56) Team Jones - Jordy Nelson WR (57) Team Rodriguez - Antonio Brown WR (58) Team Cacciotti - Matt Ryan QB (59) Team Deckelman - Vernon Davis TE (60) Team Crawford - Michael Crabtree WR
Round: 7 (61) Team Crawford - Russell Wilson QB (62) Team Deckelman - Lamar Miller RB (63) Team Cacciotti - Jason Witten TE (64) Team Rodriguez - Tony Gonzalez TE (65) Team Jones - Torrey Smith WR (66) Team lamborn - Steve Smith WR ** (67) Team amodio - Eric Decker WR (68) Team Easley - Isaiah Pead RB (69) Team Palasky - BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB (70) Team thomas - Tavon Austin WR	Round: 8 (71) Team thomas - T.Y. Hilton WR (72) Team Palasky - Le'Veon Bell RB (73) Team Easley - Josh Gordon WR ** (74) Team amodio - Greg Jennings WR (75) Team lamborn - Giovani Bernard RB (76) Team Jones - DeSean Jackson WR (77) Team Rodriguez - Pierre Garcon WR (78) Team Cacciotti - 49ers D/ST D/ST (79) Team Deckelman - Seahawks D/ST D/ST (80) Team Crawford - Rashard Mendenhall RB
Round: 9 (81) Team Crawford - Robert Griffin III QB (82) Team Deckelman - Andrew Luck QB (83) Team Cacciotti - Steve Johnson WR (84) Team Rodriguez - Johnathan Franklin RB (85) Team Jones - Matthew Stafford QB (86) Team lamborn - Dennis Pitta TE ** (87) Team amodio - Tony Romo QB (88) Team Easley - Kenny Britt WR (89) Team Palasky - Danario Alexander WR (90) Team thomas - Ryan Williams RB	Round: 10 (91) Team thomas - Carson Palmer QB (92) Team Palasky - Eli Manning QB (93) Team Easley - Shane Vereen RB ** (94) Team amodio - Andre Brown RB (95) Team lamborn - James Jones WR (96) Team Jones - Bryce Brown RB (97) Team Rodriguez - Miles Austin WR (98) Team Cacciotti - Mark Ingram RB (99) Team Deckelman - Cecil Shorts WR (100) Team Crawford - Jonathan Stewart RB
Round: 11 (101) Team Crawford - Kyle Rudolph TE (102) Team Deckelman - Greg Olsen TE (103) Team Cacciotti - Anquan Boldin WR (104) Team Rodriguez - Mikel Leshoure RB (105) Team Jones - Texans D/ST D/ST (106) Team lamborn - Mike Williams WR ** (107) Team amodio - Owen Daniels TE (108) Team Easley - Jared Cook TE (109) Team Palasky - Bears D/ST D/ST (110) Team thomas - Jermichael Finley TE	Round: 12 (111) Team thomas - Lance Moore WR (112) Team Palasky - Sidney Rice WR (113) Team Easley - Michael Vick QB ** (114) Team amodio - Jeremy Maclin WR (115) Team lamborn - Ben Roethlisberger QB (116) Team Jones - Ben Tate RB (117) Team Rodriguez - Broncos D/ST D/ST (118) Team Cacciotti - Stephen Gostkowski K (119) Team Deckelman - Bernard Pierce RB (120) Team Crawford - Ahmad Bradshaw RB
Round: 13 (121) Team Crawford - Antonio Gates TE (122) Team Deckelman - Blair Walsh K (123) Team Cacciotti - Brandon Myers TE (124) Team Rodriguez - Fred Jackson RB (125) Team Jones - LaMichael James RB (126) Team lamborn - Emmanuel Sanders WR ** (127) Team amodio - Denarius Moore WR (128) Team Easley - Joe Flacco QB (129) Team Palasky - DeAngelo Williams RB (130) Team thomas - Chris Givens WR	Round: 14 (131) Team thomas - Brandon Lloyd WR (132) Team Palasky - Michael Bush RB (133) Team Easley - Kendall Wright WR ** (134) Team amodio - Jacquizz Rodgers RB (135) Team lamborn - Bengals D/ST D/ST (136) Team Jones - Matt Prater K (137) Team Rodriguez - DeAndre Hopkins WR (138) Team Cacciotti - Andy Dalton QB (139) Team Deckelman - Alshon Jeffery WR (140) Team Crawford - Patriots D/ST D/ST
Round: 15 (141) Team Crawford - Mike Goodson RB (142) Team Deckelman - Martellus Bennett TE (143) Team Cacciotti - Daryl Richardson RB (144) Team Rodriguez - Sam Bradford QB (145) Team Jones - Shonn Greene RB (146) Team lamborn - Malcom Floyd WR ** (147) Team amodio - Packers D/ST D/ST (148) Team Easley - Steelers D/ST D/ST (149) Team Palasky - Brian Hartline WR (150) Team thomas - Browns D/ST D/ST	Round: 16 (151) Team thomas - Matt Bryant K (152) Team Palasky - Justin Tucker K (153) Team Easley - Phil Dawson K ** (154) Team amodio - Sebastian Janikowski K (155) Team lamborn - Randy Bullock K (156) Team Jones - Kenjon Barner RB (157) Team Rodriguez - Josh Brown K (158) Team Cacciotti - Cowboys D/ST D/ST (159) Team Deckelman - Andre Roberts WR (160) Team Crawford - David Akers K

• Clearly, you can wait on quarterbacks. But take a look at teams Amodio, Thomas, and Palasky who wisely waited. In a typical draft, they would've had their choice of Luck, Stafford, Romo, or RGIII. Unfortunately, a couple teams  for some reason took backup QB's leaving Amodio with the last of the big 12. So here's the main takeaway: You can wait till the 9th round to get a darn good starting quarterback. But don't push it or you may end up with Eli Manning.
• Any quarterback after the 5th round to me is money. Any top 12 QB in the 7-9th rounds? Big money. As I said before, this year is DEEP.
• People still think there is a reason to take a kicker before the last round. It is beyond me why that belief is still in people's heads.
• Two defenses went in round eight. Too early. Two defenses went in round 11. Just right.
• Besides the top 10-12 running backs, it really is a crapshoot. Just ask the guy who got Vick Ballard and Eddie Lacy as his starting running backs. I'm going to have nightmares just thinking about that.
• You basically need two running backs in the first three rounds or that guy could be you. Even the guy with Adrian Peterson. Say hello to Rashard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart as your compliment.
• After getting Spiller and Morris I was going to take Ridley if he fell. Can't have too many running backs this year. Unfortunately, he was taken one spot ahead.
• Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have an argument to go in the second round. Peyton Manning nor any other quarterback does.
• Montee Ball in the fourth round? I guess...
• Not only are the QBs deep but so are the WRs. Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, and Eric Decker in rounds 6,7 and 8? Gimme dat. They'll fit nicely behind my two top 10 wideouts Harvin and Cobb.
• I expect RGIII's draft status to change drastically as more is found out about his injury status.
• "Maybe this is the year Jermichael Finley breaks out," said countless people the last three years. Perhaps now people are finally saying, "Maybe this is the year Finley finally goes undrafted." Well, round 11. Still not a worthwhile pick.
• No Tebow? But he seems guaranteed to put up at least one touchdown with the Montreal Alouettes.
• And where's JaMarcus? I heard he "slimmed down" to "just" 265 pounds.

2013 Quarterback Overview

While last year had a plethora of quarterbacks going in the first two rounds, this upcoming season should be vastly different. The league has become extremely pass happy and non-committee running backs are a dime a dozen. In large part, the running back position has the steepest drop-off after the elites and is hands down the shallowest of any position. And this past year, 23 quarterbacks scored more than 200 points (in 6 point per passing touchdown leagues), the most ever to do so. It is ridiculously deep at the quarterback position this year.

The quarterback position is so deep that I would be reluctant to take a quarterback in the first twenty picks! Although I can guarantee that someone will take Aaron Rodgers in the first round, it shouldn't happen. To give you an idea of what can happen, Matt Ryan has been going as late as the ninth round in the mock drafts. So please, fellow fantasy footballers, WAIT! Be patient. Let the draft come to you. Don't start a quarterback run. And if there is one, WAIT! Just because Cam Newton is available in the fourth round does not mean he's the best pick available given the scarcity of running backs. On the other hand, if there is a running back run, you better snatch one up otherwise you might be looking at a tandem of Chris Ivory and Reggie Bush. Yuck.

And to those in my league (which I won) last year who started taking backups in the 8th round. WAIT. Please. Freaking. Wait. Last year, by the time people were taking unnecessary backups, I was taking my starter, Robert Griffin III. Obviously in hindsight it was a great pick. But at the time, it was a scrambling, never-racking pick. And while last year there was a risk to wait that long, this year you can be making bank by waiting that long.

Let me re-iterate: This is the year to wait. If you don't get Aaron Rodgers, so what? Get Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, even Colin Kaepernick after the fifth round. Tony Romo is the 12th ranked quarterback in ESPN and my rankings. In a 10 team league that means he is a backup! Wait. Heck, in a twelve team league I bet you can get Matt Stafford as your backup if want to be "that guy".

Here's another thing. You hardly need a backup quarterback unless you draft Griffin (the ACL concerns). With guys like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, etc all outside the top 12, you don't need to waste a roster spot when you can just pick one up later. Let me just sternly say: If you draft either Rodgers, Brady, Brees, or Manning and then proceed to draft a backup QB, you are most certainly wasting a roster spot.

So finally, WAIT. WAIT on a quarterback likes it's your girlfriend trying on every dress imaginable. You know she'll find the right one eventually, even if it takes three hours.

Do some mock drafts to see where your favorite quarterbacks are going. Suppose you like Russell Wilson higher than most. Don't rush to take him. Do a mock draft and see if you can get him in the sixth or seventh round. Or maybe you like Matt Stafford to bounce back or maybe you're just fine with any of the QB's from the five to twelve range. Then try mock drafts and push it to see how long you can wait on a number one quarterback. And if you are in a "standard" 4 point per passing touchdown league, really, really wait. If it is a 6 point per any touchdown league, still wait (but perhaps not quite as long).

And alas. Here are my consistency rankings based on last year's stats. You can find two seasons ago here. Keep in mind the percentage on the right is for percentage of "Great" games. So for instance, Rodgers was great in 9 out of 16 or 56.25% of his games last season. But it's important to note that he was still a worthy start in 75% of his games (add the 3 "Start" games to the 9 "Great" or better games).

	Freak	Stud	Great	Start	Dud
Player (last year's rank)	35	25	20	15	<15	Inj/Sit	% Great
Rodgers (2)	4	5	0	3	4	0	56.25
Brees (1)	6	4	2	3	1	0	75.00
P. Manning (4)	0	10	2	2	2	0	75.00
Brady (3)	4	2	6	3	1	0	75.00
Ryan (5)	2	5	3	2	4	0	62.50
Newton (6)	2	3	4	2	5	0	56.25
Griffin III (7)	3	4	1	4	3	1	53.33
Wilson (9)*	1	5	2	2	6	0	50.00
Romo (8)	1	4	3	4	4	0	50.00
Stafford (11)	1	2	4	5	4	0	43.75
Kaepernick (25)	0	1	3	3	1	8	50.00
Luck (10)	1	3	2	7	3	0	37.50
E. Manning (14)	1	4	1	3	7	0	37.50
Roethlisberger (16)	1	2	3	5	2	3	46.15
Vick (27)	0	1	1	5	3	6	20.00
Flacco (15)	1	1	5	2	7	0	43.75
Rivers (20)	0	3	1	7	5	0	25.00
Dalton (12)	0	7	0	2	7	0	43.75
Bradford (18)	0	2	2	4	8	0	25.00
Freeman (13)	1	3	3	3	6	0	43.75
Palmer (19)	1	0	5	5	4	1	40.00
Cutler (23)	0	1	4	2	8	1	33.33
Tannehill (24)	0	1	3	3	9	0	25.00
Smith (29)	0	2	2	0	5	7	44.44
Tebow (CFL)	It's	Tee	Bow	Time	in	Can	ada?

All stats here based on 1 point per 25 passing yards, 1 point per 10 rushing yards, and 6 points per touchdown.

*Five of Wilson's six duds came in the first seven games. He finished the year with just one dud in his last nine games.

So here are some main takeaways from last year's stats (also in comparison to two years ago). And here are last year's rankings for you to compare.

• Aaron Rodgers "Great" percentage is a far cry from last year's perfect percentage. But even with the lowest percentage among the top five, he finished in the top 3 for the fifth year in a row.
• Over the past two years, Drew Brees has been the most consistent quarterback. And now Sean Payton is coming back. Sheesh.
• How right was I about Eli Manning? Very right. Expect more inconsistent play from him. For the past two years, he has had the most duds among the top 15 quarterbacks. He's not worthy of a starting spot in any league with 12 or fewer owners.
• Of my top ten, Peyton Manning was the only one who did not register a freak game. I expect that to change this year with the best receiving corps in football. Sorry to my Packers fans out there.
• There were 30 freak games this past season in comparison to just 18 last year. Can I emphasize what a passing league this has become? And just how deep the quarterback pool is this year.
• Andy Dalton tied for fourth in games with 25 or more points. He was also tied for fourth in games with 15 or less points.
• While Luck does not have a high percentage of great games, he was startable in 13 of 16 games.

Now. With all this in mind, get it! Be patient. Have fun. And stock up on running backs and wide receivers while your opponents take quarterbacks way too early.

How Did I Do? Recap of My Teams and Predictions

Well, it's taken me long enough to get a post out there, but as you all know, blogging during the school year is quite difficult. When break came, I went to the Urbana Missions Conference where God did some mind-blowing work for some 16,000 people. Ask me about it sometime. And then I got the flu. I guess I should have listened to my parents and got that free flu shot at school . . .

But at last, here I am. And I bet many of you are wondering: How do these self-proclaimed fantasy experts do? Well, in my case the answer is pretty well. The thing with fantasy football as people know, is that there is so much variability that even newcomers can win leagues their first year. And in comparison to fantasy baseball, it is much harder to predict seasonal outcomes. For instance, a player in baseball will most likely hit around their mean numbers no matter what team they are on or how good that team is. But in football, a good quarterback who loses his left tackle or top wide receiver has much less certainty to match their average output. So with fantasy football predictions, one's educated guesses could in fact be just as valuable as my sister's predictions based on the best looking players.

So anyways, this year I participated in 8 leagues. First time in a while that I was not in double digit leagues! I had only one team tank with a 4-9 record, but the other seven made the playoffs. So seven out of eight is not too bad I must say. In fact, I'd say that's pretty darn beastly. And in those seven playoffs appearances, I made four championships. Of those four championships, I was crowned CHAMPION with a championship belt in ALL four leagues. So gimme dat!

The main reason for most of my success came this year through drafting Doug Martin in four leagues (I wanted him in every league) and Reggie Wayne in three. RGIII also saved three of my leagues and put me over the top. My best team? Well, Mr. Rodgers' Neighborhood featuring a lineup that put me in the 98th percentile in official ESPN leagues. My lineup had Aaron Rodgers, Martin, Adrian Peterson, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, and Jimmy Graham. How's that for a championship team?

So as a recap of players I told you to target or to avoid in the draft, here are my biggest hits and misses.

HITS on players to draft

Fantasy Hamster.

Doug Martin (Average Draft Position 65.7, finished 2nd among RB's): If you drafted him, you more than likely made the playoffs in your league. You're welcome. And thank you, Muscle Hamster.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis (ADP 56.4, finished 19th among RB's): He started the year slow but closed out with a strong second half, helping those who stuck with him this year. He's exactly what I thought he would be, a serviceable top 20 back.

Reggie Wayne (ADP 93.8, finished 15th among WR's): Many thought his career was done. I didn't. Andrew Luck helped revive Wayne and help him become a solid wide receiver all year. And if you had him in PPR leagues, you more than likely did very well with getting Wayne in the ninth round.

Eric Decker (ADP 77.7, finished 8th among WR's): Remember when my column on Peyton Manning's impact right when he went to Denver? Yeah, this is his impact.

Demaryius Thomas (ADP 59.8, finished 5th among WR's): And him, too.

Randall Cobb (ADP 130.0, finished 17th among WR's): Needed a very late round gem. This was your guy.

Julio Jones (ADP 26.3, finished 9th among WR's): A bit inconsistent but still a stud. Will be a top five pick next year for sure.

AJ Green (ADP 30.4, finished 4th among WR's): He was a rock of consistency as he had either 100 yards or a touchdown in 12 games. And his stretch of nine straight games with at least one touchdown? Gimme dat.

Brandon Marshall (ADP 34.2, finished 2nd among WR's): Those who though he was too risky missed out on a pretty safe, pretty lights out pick. I also feel like I should mention something about Viagra here . . . But Marshall lit it up this year as Cutler looked his way an astonishing 192 times. After the season ended, it was reported Jay Cutler actually did not know the team had other receivers. He merely though Devin Hester was lost and confused while looking for the punt return unit.


HITS on players to avoid

Maurice Jones Drew (ADP 10.7, finished 50th among RB's): Holding out for that long made him far too risky of a pick. And an injury proved that. Otherwise, he did play just okay when healthy.

Fred Jackson (ADP 46.3, finished 39th among RB's): The emergence of CJ Spiller and health concerns made Jackson a non-factor this year.

Willis McGahee (ADP 52.5, finished 24th among RB's): McGahee played very well for 11 games. But 11 games is not enough to be considered worth it.

Panther's Running Backs (ADP 68.4, 90.4, finished 52, 23rd among RB's): DeAngelo Williams literally did nothing till the last four weeks while Jonathon Stewart made virtually no impact. Both were a waste of a roster spot. And Mike Tolbert did some nice touchdown stealing.

Mike Wallace (ADP 26.1, finished 25th among WR's): He was far too inconsistent and definitely not worth a second round pick.

Eli Manning (ADP 32.0, finished 15th among QB's): This is one of my "I told you" picks. I hope you listened to me here.

Matt Stafford (ADP 16.5, finished 10th among QB's): At least he finished in the top ten but just barely! Perhaps the biggest bust of the draft considering he was going in the first round of some drafts.

Darren McFadden (ADP 25.8, finished 28th among RB's): Same ol' same ol'.

Vernon Davis (ADP 50.0, finished 15h among TE's): So much for the year of the tight end. He started out with three strong games then completely fell off the map.

I think I see Jermichael Finley in there!

Jermichael Finley (ADP 62.1, finished 17th among TE's): Utter waste of a roster space. Garbage. Matthew Berry made the best statement on this guy by putting him in his "HATE" column every week. Well done Berry, well done.

Demarco Murray (ADP 19.4, finished 25th among RB's): See McFadden.

Misses on players to draft

Antonio Brown (ADP 73.4, finished 43rd among WR's): One of my big sleepers, Brown failed to capitalize on Mike Wallace's failures.

Philip Rivers (ADP 69.1, finished 21 among QB's): Oh boy. That was bad.

Jacob Tamme (ADP 118.6, finished 26th among TE's): C'mon, man. You were supposed to be the next Dallas Clark.

Michael Vick (ADP 42.2, finished 27th among QB's): There certainly was potential there. . . for injuries galore.

Ryan Mathews (ADP 37.0, finished 31st among RB's): First I though he was being over-drafted badly. Then he got hurt. So I tried to claim he'd be a value at his new average draft position. Turns out injuries do not make for better fantasy players. So . . .

Tim Tebow (ADP undrafted, finished around 456 or so among all players): Well, I clearly did not advocate him as a stud or anything. Just a viable option if he got to start. Darn you, Rex Ryan . . .

Misses on players to avoid

Cam Newton (ADP 21.7, finished 4th among QB's): Huh. Turns out he finished about exactly where his draft position indicated. You fooled me, Cam, for two years in a row. Argh.

Vincent Jackson (ADP 57.4, finished 6th among WR's): I wrote about him multiple times. How he would never be a number one option. I ranted how he never had more than 68 catches, 1,167 yards, or 9 touchdowns. Well, he put together career highs in receptions, yards, and was just one touchdown short.

Peyton Manning (ADP 39.5, finished 5th among QB's): I told you all his receivers would benefit from him. But I still considered him far too risky of a pick. Glad I never said the same about Adrian Peterson at least . . .

Calvin Johnson (ADP 7.5, finished stinkin' numero uno among WR's): So I never took him in a league this year. Madden curse. Stafford drop off. Deep wide receiver pool. Oh well, things still worked out for me but Calvin destroyed any Madden curse thoughts and lit it up in a historical, unforgettable season. For all those who are wondering, I never called him a potential bust, just a player to avoid.

Marshawn Lynch (ADP 15.3, finished 4th among RB's): Beast Mode, Skittles, whatever you call him came to play. He only had less than 80 rushing yards twice and was a mark of consistency. He will be a potential top five overall pick next season. And please watch this episode that Sports Science did on him. Slow motion pouring of Skittles into his mouth? Priceless.