Showing posts with label value. Show all posts
Showing posts with label value. Show all posts

Friday, August 19, 2011

Players that I L.O.V.E

       Love is a powerful word. Love is what holds the world together. Love conquers all. It's a love story baby just say yeah.
       Every year, there are players that for some reason or another, I absolutely love and will target in nearly every draft. The hardest part about loving players in fantasy is to not reach on them. And then there's the grey area of picking players from your favorite team that you love. No doubt, it can make your season that much more fun. Unless you're a Cincinnati Bengals fan.
       So for every draft, it is a good idea to have a list of players that you absolutely love. These can be picks that you think will be bargains, gut feeling break out players, or players whose point per game difference (at their respective position) is greatest (Michael Vick and Antonio Gates). Whoever your "love" players are, it is best to avoid unnatural love. Like love for players with awesome names. Anyone remember Tim Biakabutuka? Or Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala? Or the current T.J. Houshmandzadeh, now known to many as T.J. Who's Your Mama. Despite awesome names, clearly guys like these shouldn't be among your loved fantasy players. You get the picture.
       But there are many things I love in this world. Football, duh. Ultimate Frisbee. Taylor Swift. Chocolate apple juice. Jesus (he's the one I love the most and the reason I live life the way I do). The Packers.
       Anyways, here are some players that I love and think you should too.

       Shonn Greene (RB, NYJ, ADP 61): Last year, Greene was way overvalued. This year, he is far too undervalued. Experts were calling for his breakout season last year when LaDanian Tomlinson spoiled hopes of that. But now, Shonn Greene should take off and produce like many thought he would last year. LT's role will be much more limited and Greene will be a force. Draft him. For his draft value, you won't regret it.

       Ahmad Bradshaw (RB, NYG, ADP 35): For someone who put quietly put up 1,500 total yards and 8 touchdowns, he is a great value being selected as the 16th running back. I expect more of the same from him and think he will outperform the likes of DeAngelo Williams, Darren McFadden, and LeGarrett Blount. And maybe more.

       Matthew Stafford (QB, DET, ADP 109): If only Stafford could stay healthy, he may be a top 10 quarterback. Unfortunately, he has only played in 13 of 32 possible games. But Detroit has loads of talent including this guy by the name of Calvin Johnson. Maybe you heard of him. He and Stafford have great chemistry and Megatron will see his value boosted if Stafford stays healthy. Now Stafford is not one that I would neccessarily draft, but he will be a great addition in deeper leagues and for those who miss on one of the elite quarterbacks.

       Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI, ADP 22): This a bit of an obvious one, but I think Fitzgerald will make a return to the top 5 thanks to Kevin Kolb. Considering what Fitzgerald did last year with three mediocre quarterbacks, I think Fitzgerald should now be drafted in the top 5 over Greg Jennings. Kolb may not live up to they hype, but that doesn't mean that Fitzy won't benefit. He will. And if Kolb does bust, it can't be much worse than Derek Anderson or Max Hall. Right?

       Neil Rackers (K, HOU, ADP 121): Ha, just kidding. You know how I feel about kickers.

       Wes Welker (WR, NE, ADP 57): Welker's knee appears to be fine and I think Welker will make a return to triple digit receptions this season. While Chad Ochocinco won't stretch the defense quite like Randy Moss did, I think Welker will be able to benefit nonetheless. He will once again be a monster in PPR leagues and should be in line for a solid season. He is currently being drafted as the 19th receiver, but will perform more in the 10th to 15th range.

       Philip Rivers (QB, SD, ADP 24): Why do I mind not getting Aaron Rodgers as my quarterback? It's because of this guy right here. Three consecutive 4,000 yards seasons with 28 plus TD passes and Rivers is not far behind. He is being drafted much later allowing you to get an elite running back or wide receiver. I will take Rivers and Ray Rice any day over Rodgers and Cedric Benson.

       Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, ADP 56): Hopefully this isn't a love due to my allegiance to the Super Bowl champs. However, Finley is absolutely loaded with talent and if he can finally stay healthy, who knows what kind of numbers we may see. And if he gets hurt, so what? There are plenty of other tight ends who won't be very different from the 6th to 15th ranked ones. You may miss out on a value pick, but I see Finley putting together a season to remember. If you don't believe me, watch this.

       Shawn Johnson: You are my soul mate and will always have a place in my heart. Love, Nate.

       Matt Forte (CHI, RB, ADP 29): Another PPR stud, Forte has put up solid numbers his whole career and is still a bit on the undervalued side. He should get you 1,500 total yards and will get his share of touchdowns.

       Jahvid Best (DET, RB, ADP 47): Best is another running back that I can see breaking out and he will be a stud in PPR leagues. With Mikel Leshore done for the season, Best and his Charles-like potential will be in for a fun ride.

       Austin Collie (IND, WR, ADP 75): Collie was on path to a monstrous season last year when multiple concussions derailed his hopes. For someone being drafted behind Chad Ochocinco, I don't see how you can go wrong. He has evident low end number 1 potential and can be drafted as your third, maybe even fourth receiver. He is definitely worth a chance and can bolster any lineup. Think of his stats like Vick's from last year projected over a full season. Ridiculous. 103 catches, 1153 yards, and 14 touchdowns. And that's including the game where he was re-injured.

       Ryan Grant (RB, GB, ADP 55): Another running back makes my love list and in the form of another Super Bowl champ. He missed basically all of last year but appears to be at full strength this year. Despite competition from James Starks, Grant will be the go-to-guy and can pick up where he left off in 2009. He won't be a number 1 back, but can definitely put up 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns, making him a very solid mid-round pick.

       Plaxico Burress (WR, NYJ, ADP 103): Plaxico has slowly moved up the wide receiver ranks and is reaching a point where he may be drafted too high. He is as far away from a surefire pick as you can be and may end up doing absolutely nothing. But, I think he is a worthy pick in the late rounds because he has huge potential. Despite obvious concerns, you will be mad is you didn't use your 15th rounder on him and he goes on to have a productive year. He is replacing Braylon Edwards and has the size to still be effective. Let's just hope he doesn't shoot himself in the foot or anything with the second chance.

       Tim Tebow (QB, DEN, undrafted): I just love the man. Clearly, most of his sleeper value is gone. But, that doesn't mean I can't love a man who cares about the game, people, and Jesus. I think any hate directed at him is unwarranted and unnecessary. But yeah, don't draft him (this year).

       LeSean McCoy (RB, PHI, ADP 11): While his rushing stats are solid, it is his receiving game that makes me love him so much. Even if Vick goes down, McCoy will get his carries and his catches. I would take him over MJD and Ray Rice, making him my fifth rated running back. In PPR leagues, he can goes as high the number 1 pick, although he will most likely be between the 2nd and 4th.

       BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, NE, ADP 52): This may be my one of my least popular love picks. Bill Belichick always seems to make life difficult when choosing New England running backs. And with two early draft picks spent on running backs, Green-Ellis may find himself limited. And while he isn't the most talented of running backs, I don't see himself faltering. Maybe this is a gut feeling, but I think BenJarvus puts together another solid season and proves his worth as a number 2 back being drafted as your 3rd or 4th.

       Mike Sims-Walker (WR, STL, ADP 132): Sims-Walker was already a low risk late pick, but now that he is almost guaranteed a roster spot, my hopes are even higher. Sam Bradford throwing to him makes him a great comeback candidate in an improving offense.

Oh, JaMarcus.
       JaMarcus Russell (Hot dog eater, IKEA couches, sleeping): I just love making fun of him. What's not to love about a former quarterback built like a lineman? He still is in possibly the funniest "yahoo answers" questions that I have ever seen, "Did JaMarcus Russell refuse to take HGH because it didn't come in a chewable bacon-flavored form?"

       Brandon Lloyd (WR, DEN, ADP 52): Now I guess he isn't one I love, but someone I really really like. Much like Green-Ellis, not many people are expecting anything close to last season. But with Kyle Orton throwing, Lloyd really blossomed and should put up serviceable numbers this season. If Denver keeps up their losing ways, they will once again be forced to throw a ton, thus enhancing Lloyd's value. If he falls in your draft like he most likely will, keep an eye on him and don't be afraid to snag him.

        Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, ATL, undrafted): Now that's a cool name.

       Miles Austin (DAL, WR, ADP 33): While Dez Bryant may actually outproduce Austin this year, I think Austin will still be a tremendous pick. With a healthy Tony Romo, both Austin and Bryant may be in for big seasons. I like Austin a bit more than Bryant as he is more of a sure bet than Bryant, but both have huge potential in a potent offense.

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Draft Day Tips: Bang for Yo' Buck, Value Picks

       Value, according to Merriam-Webster dictionary, is the relative worth, utility, or importance. A value pick in fantasy is someone who can be picked later than others at his position, but has potential to produce on par or even better than those drafted ahead. By identifying key value picks in your draft, you should be able to really bolster your lineup and have depth on your bench. Here are some players who I think provide great value for where they are being drafted.

       Tony Romo (QB, DAL, ADP 45): Romo being drafted will most likely signify the end of the elite quarterbacks in your draft. Although drafting him coming off his injury is a bit risky, he provides great value for a 4th to 5th round pick. Before last season, he put up at least 26 touchdowns in three consecutive seasons and over 4,000 yards in two of them. Expect him to return to those numbers making him a solid number 1 option and great value if you want to wait a bit for a quarterback, while still grabbing an elite one.

       Kevin Kolb (QB, ARI, ADP 112): With a fresh new start in Arizona, Kolb has a chance to piece together a solid season with his new team. Despite his lack of experience and poor touchdown to interception ratio, look for Kolb after the 10th round. Here, he can provide backup value with potential to be a low end starter. Keep in mind that if you do grab a top 7 quarterback, there is really no need for a backup. But those who go for a two QB strategy or aren’t sure of their starter, Kolb should be your man.

       Ahmad Bradshaw (RB, NYG, ADP 35): Now back with the Giants, speedster Bradshaw is looking to pick up where he left off last year. Even with Brandon Jacobs in the mix, Bradshaw saw more carries and produced 1,500 all-purpose yards and 8 touchdowns. Look for more of the same from Bradshaw who has great potential for a 3rd or 4th round back. And with him being drafted close to Knowshon Moreno and Ryan Matthews, I would take Bradshaw in a heartbeat over the two.

       BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, NE, ADP 52): This is where the site you use for fantasy changes one's value greatly. In my drafts on Nfl.com, I have gotten tremendous value for him in the 9th round. But on ESPN, it appears as if he is going more towards the 5th round. Nonetheless, Green-Ellis has a knack for the endzone and provides good value if you can snag him after the 5th round. Just be wary of Bill Belichick who tends to mix up his backfield quite a bit. And with New England using their recent 2nd and 3rd round picks on running backs, Green-Ellis may get lost in the mix. However, I expect Green-Ellis to have another productive season as he is one of my favorite mid round running backs.

       Shonn Greene (RB, NYJ, ADP 59): Last year many people, expected Greene to be a breakout candidate with a bigger role in New York. Unfortunately for his owners, LaDainian Tomlinson reemerged and bumped Greene down to a small role. But this year Greene should get the bulk of the carries and will play more like he did against Chicago in week 16. For a 5th or 6th round pick, Greene could bring the value of 2nd or 3rd round pick. And folks, this year will be his breakout year.

       Brandon Lloyd (WR, DEN, ADP 53): Again, the site you draft on could greatly change someone like Lloyd’s draft spot. Since people tend to draft generally based on the site's rankings, I’ve seen Lloyd go anywhere from the 5th round to the 8th round. If you can get Lloyd anywhere after the 6th round, he could be a steal. Don’t expect last year’s numbers, but with Orton still throwing and Lloyd his go-to guy, I think he will surprise us again. And in my league where he is my 4th receiver, I couldn’t be happier.

       Austin Collie (WR, IND, ADP 72): Collie was having a stellar season till a series of concussions derailed his season. But he showed that he is capable to be a great number 2 wide receiver and is a bargain in the 7th round. In just 9 games last season, he had caught 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns. The Colts have lots of receiving options, but Collie should be able to shine in the slot. Albeit a bit of a risky pick given his concussions, Collie is a fairly low-risk high-reward pick in the middle rounds.

       Mike Sims-Walker (WR, STL, ADP 131): Look for Sims-Walker to be an absolute steal late in your draft. While you shouldn’t expect him to be a number 1 option, don’t be surprised if he puts up 800 yards and 6 touchdowns. With Sam Bradford throwing, Sims-Walker could rebound, assuming that he does in fact make the team. The St. Louis camp is extremely crowded with average wide receivers and it is possible for Sims-Walker to not make the team. But given where he is being drafted, he is certainly worth the risk.
It's cool to punch a hole in a drywall, let alone catch a ball thrown from the other side. Skills. 

       Chris Cooley (TE, WSH, ADP 121): Long gone are the days of Cooley being an elite tight end. But last year, Cooley was still targeted plenty of times in the red-zone even with Fred Davis looking to grab the tight end spot. Cooley finished second among tight ends in catches and third in yards, but had only 3 touchdowns. Don’t be afraid to take Cooley in the late round if you miss out on the elite tight ends. While gone are his 6 touchdown seasons, he will still be a productive option. And, he still has one of the coolest "NFL Fantasy Files".