Quarterbacks to Avoid:
Jay Cutler (CHI, ADP 116): If Cutler makes your roster as a backup, then you should be fine because of his potential. If he somehow ends up as your starter, then you are in big trouble. His inconsistencies outweigh any of his productiveness and is wildly hit or miss. Last year, 8 of Cutler's 15 starts produced 15 or less fantasy points. Not ideal for a QB who will be missing his Pro Bowl center.
Matt Cassel (KC, ADP 115): Cassel produced a fantastic season amidst low fantasy expectations. But he still has just a 59% completion percentage and is on a run first team. Last year, Cassel beat up on some of the league's worst defenses but now will face a much, much tougher schedule.Running Backs to Avoid:
Darren McFadden (OAK, ADP 22): McFadden finally became the runner he was expected to be out of Arkansas as he racked up nearly 1,700 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns. This is despite missing 3 games for the season. However, McFadden was nearly non-existent some weeks and poses serious injury concerns. That and him being drafted so high (I've seen him go late first round) and I would avoid McFadden. Unless he drops to you in the third round, he is not worth the risk.
Ryan Matthews (SD, ADP 43): Matthews ended his season with his only good game of the year of 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. His season as a whole was a major disappointment and opened the door for fellow teammate Mike Tolbert. Now, missing some camp time with a toe injury and coming off wrist surgery makes Matthews risky. And with Tolbert possibly stealing goal line carries, Matthews is a very risky pick.
Any Saints RB's: When Reggie Bush was traded, it looked like Mark Ingram (ADP 65) may be the feature back. Na uh. Think again as they brought in Darren Sproles (ADP 138) to make another three-headed backfield. With Ingram, Pierre Thomas (ADP 89), and Sproles all getting carries, their draft stock is limited. Ingram still has the most potential and Thomas is the most proven, but none should excite you when drafting.
Ryan Torain (WAS, ADP 100): In 3 of his 8 games, Torain rushed for over 100 yards and became a useful option last year (while he was not hurt). Coach Mike Shanahan and the Redskins not only drafted Roy Helu, but traded for Tim Hightower who will be in the mix. Shanahan reportedly really likes Helu and this is another backfield with limited fantasy potential.
Wide Receivers to Avoid:
Marques Colston (NO, ADP 47): Colston is no longer the number 1 receiver he once was despite the juggernaut Saints' offense. Brees just spreads the ball out so much that every week it seems to be someone different racking up yards and scoring touchdowns. This makes all Saints' players besides Brees tough to predict. Nonetheless, Colston is still the best for the Saints and does warrant a mid round selection. Just don't overpay for him.
Hakeem Nicks (NYG, ADP 23): It's not that you should necessarily avoid Nicks, just do not jump on him too early. He is often being drafted before Larry Fitzgerald because of his strong season last year. But I would rather have Fitzgerald who put up 1,100 yards and 7 touchdowns with terrible quarterbacks Derek Anderson, John Skelton, and Max Hall. With Kevin Kolb now, imagine the possibilities and do not take Nicks over him. Nicks should still be a top 7 WR, but he's not worth grabbing so early.
Tight Ends to Avoid:
Owen Daniels (HOU, ADP 79): I actually like Daniels a lot, just not enough to draft him in the eighth round. He is viewed as the number six tight end and a great comeback candidate, but I would avoid him solely based on draft position. You can still grab very comparable tight ends much later in the draft and hardly lose any value. If you miss on a top five tight end, wait patiently, and let the draft come to you.
Kickers to Avoid:
Have you read my thoughts on kickers? Pick one, unless he has Bill Gramatica potential. This marks one of my favorite childhood football memories by the way.
Defenses to Avoid:
Arizona Cardinals (Not drafted): Arizona finished last season ranked 9th for defenses. I can guarantee that it will not happen again. Most of their points came on defensive touchdowns even though they were continually torched by opposing offenses. The loss of playmaker Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie hurts them even more. Do not draft them. Period.