Draft Prep: Players to Avoid

Avoid these players. Whether it's for injury concerns, fluke seasons, or being drafted too high, I would recommend a rethink if you are wanting to draft any of these guys.

As 1 Thessalonians 5:22 says, "Avoid every kind of evil". While these players are not evil by any means, the things they may do to your team may seem evil. And while you are at it, avoid using Bible verses out of context. Psh, I mean, who does that? But seriously, those who use individual verses to prove points miss the context and point of passages. In order to not do that, it helps to use the ladder of abstraction, which helps us find an underlying universal principal in context. For instance, when there is foot washing in the Bible, it is not proper to extrapolate and say that we, in today's culture, need to wash our neighbors' feet. Instead, we see how foot washing was a way to keep your house clean. We also can take away the theme of serving one another with humility and being hospitable.

Um, well, how does this connect at all? It does not really. But for those who find research saying that  Eric Dickerson tanked after a 380 plus carry season does not necessarily mean that Maurice Jones-Drew cannot handle it. Times are different. Athletes are built differently. In short, the game has changed. So when it comes to finding research about current situations, like Adrian Peterson's torn ACL, it can be good to look into the past for reference. Just do not hold it as truth for what will happen next.

So. Back to the actual point of this article. Here are players you should avoid on draft day.

Peyton Manning (QB, DEN, ADP 42.1): For a career filled with twice as many indoor games as outdoor games, Manning now faces 15 outdoor games this year. His outdoor numbers, while not terrible, do in fact drop significantly from his indoor numbers. That plus his age, his neck, and a brand new team makes me want to avoid Manning this year. While being the eight quarterback selected sounds like a bargain, there are much better, surefire options.

Eli Manning (QB, NYG, ADP 31.9): Both Mannings make this list as this year Eli is actually being overvalued. While he did produce a stellar 5,000 yard season last year, he still was one of the more inconsistent quarterbacks. He had six games with under 15 points and finished the year with only 29 touchdowns. Good, but not great. Of the eight other quarterbacks to ever throw for 5,000 yards in a season, they averaged 41 touchdowns. So the question: where were Manning's?

Matt Stafford (QB, DET, ADP 13.0): For a guy going borderline first round, I do not want to touch him. No doubt he has the talent to be a top five quarterback. And he has Calvin Johnson. But, he has played only one full season in his career, has a poor offensive line, and little running game. Do I want to pick a player in the first round based on one great season? Nope.

JaMarcus Russell (QB, Biggest Losers, ADP (average donuts per day) 12): Avoid him. He may just eat you, too.

Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 25.5): The thing about McFadden is that he is one the best fantasy running backs out there. The other thing is that he can rarely stay on the field. If you are feeling dicey, then McFadden could be one of the biggest steals this year. He is the epitome of a high risk, high reward player.

Frank Gore (RB, SF, 35.2): No longer viewed as a number one running back, owners should see Gore as a solid number two. Gore finally lasted a full season, but saw his workload decrease as the season went on. That said, he now has Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James, and Kendall Hunter all in the mix to steal carries. Don't be surprised if there is another decline in Gore's carries and productivity.

Roy Helu (RB, WSH, 52.6): I love this guy. He showed immense potential in his rookie campaign by compiling over 1,000 all-purpose yards to go along with 49 catches. In PPR leagues, he will be a great option. But anytime Mike Shanahan is your coach, we actually have no idea who will get the bulk of carries. For all I know, Terrell David could come out of retirement and Shanahan will give him the carries. Any Redskins' running back is risky, although Helu hopes to break the Shanahan curse and be the go-to guy.

Willis McGahee (RB, DEN, 54.3): Remember Joseph Addai in the high powered Colts' offense. Remember his incredible numbers? . . . Oh, wait. Well, McGahee, who turns 31 this year, could end up a replica of Addai, only worse. McGahee does not catch well and is poor in pass protection, which means he may not do too much this year with Manning. Before you think McGahee will ride on coattails of last year, think again.

Calvin Johnson (WR, DET, 6.8): Madden curse? Is it true? Does it affect a robot? Who knows? Other than the curse, there are no actual viable concerns for this beast of a player.

Mike Wallace (WR, PIT, 26.5): This man is still holding out. So watch out come draft day. Wallace did very little toward the end of last season and Antonio Brown emerged as a favorite of Ben Roethlisberger. In Wallace's last 9 games, he scored double digits just TWICE! For the consensus top eight wide receiver, he is one to be drafted with caution. He still has lights out potential, but has a moderately high risk component.

Vincent Jackson (WR, TB, 53.8): He has never caught more than 68 passes in a season. Or double digit touchdowns. Or 1,200 yards. A guy that always seems slightly overrated, Jackson now leaves his comfort of Philip Rivers and goes to run-heavy, Josh Freeman led Tampa Bay. Things do not look good, my friends.

Victor Cruz (WR, NYG, 31.8): This is more based on draft position than on talent or production. Cruz has the ability to replicate last year's numbers. But he almost surely will not. He scored on touchdowns last year of 68, 72, 74, 74, and 99 yards. Think he can do that again? I like Cruz and think he can still produce like a top 20 receiver, just not the top 10 where he is currently being drafted.

Andre Johnson (WR, HOU, 14.3): Yup, you read it right. For a guy who has failed to stay healthy the past two seasons, I cannot advise taking him so high this year. He has played just 20 games the past two years and while he has been productive, he has been a headache to deal with. And now Houston has become a run first team, meaning Johnson will have less chances to produce like he once did. I am not saying that Johnson is done by any means, I am just saying he is no longer the Andre we knew and used to draft first of wide receivers.

Vernon Davis (TE, SF, 52.5): He's a great talent hurt by his quarterback Alex Smith. While Smith is by no means a bad quarterback, Davis just does not get the same chances that a Jimmy Graham or even a Jason Witten get. Davis was very inconsistent last year and that is due to him getting mainly underneath throws from Smith. If Smith can air it out more, perhaps Davis will return to the top five. Till further notice, he is just a solid top 10 option.

Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, 67.0): At least he is not being drafted as early as Davis, but Finley was perhaps the most inconsistent of all fantasy players. He was plagued by drops and had only four double digit games. He has ridiculous potential, but still has not reached it.

Stephen Gostowski (K, NE, 110.1): WHY ON EARTH DO PEOPLE PICK KICKERS THIS EARLY? Wait till the LAST ROUND, close your eyes and point at the screen. There, you have your kicker! Last year, if you removed David Akers' season, there was only a 15 point difference between the 1st and 10th kicker! Even with Akers, it was still only 49 points.

Hate is a Strong Word, But I Really Really Don't Like These Players

       Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 23): At last, Darren McFadden burst onto the fantasy scene with his first 1,000 yard season. And with nearly 1,700 total yards and 10 total touchdowns, he was a great late round steal. But, McFadden is a huge injury risk much like Brian Westbrook was. McFadden has played at most 13 games in a season and will at some time appear on the sidelines. In some of my drafts this year, I have seen him go as high as in the first round. This. Is. Ridiculous. While there is obvious potential based on his athleticism, he is too risky I would not draft him unless he fell much further.

       Any Saints Player Not Named Drew Brees: The Saints potent offense figure to put up major points again this season but my concern is in the overload of talent there. Their backfield is a fantasy nightmare with Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles all getting some carries as well as a receiving corps that Brees spreads the ball to. Every week there is potential for someone else to put up numbers but none can be trusted on a weekly basis. Marques Colston is the closest to consistent as he should put up decent number 2 WR numbers this year even with his injury risk. Ingram and Jimmy Graham each have potential to shine but will also find it very tough to be consistent fantasy contributors.

       Reggie Bush (RB, MIA, ADP 111): His value lies solely in PPR leagues and nowhere else. He has proved that he never has been and never will be a reliable fantasy option. Do not waste a pick on him.

       Dwayne Bowe (WR, KC, ADP 38): Bowe finally broke out last season thanks in large part to overachieving play from Matt Cassel. In fantasy, touchdowns are extremely hard to predict, but I expect Bowe to fall far short of his league-leading 15 TD's last season. Last year Bowe and Cassel benefited from an easy schedule that took a bad turn towards the end of the year. Bowe struggled with only 14 catches in the last 5 games and much of his success depends on the untrustworthy Cassel. While Bowe could put up good numbers and certainly has potential to be a number 1 option, I just don't see him coming close to last season's totals.

       Peyton Manning (QB, IND, ADP 21): Manning is no doubt one of the most consistent fantasy performers year after year and you always know what you will get. While he is obviously still one of the seven elite quarterbacks this year, I actually have him ranked 6th. Someone like Philip Rivers, who has actual wide receivers to throw to this season, is a much better bargain and less of a risk. Manning's neck injury worries me and Reggie Wayne may finally be slowing down a bit. With a poor offensive line and the usual suspect running game, Manning may see his numbers take another slight dip.

       Ryan Matthews (RB, SD, ADP 41): For him to be a top 20 running back this year is just absurd. Last year, countless owner fell for his potential and took a chance on him much too early. He produced just one game with more than 15 points and that was in week 17. Well this year, Matthews continues to miss camp time with some nagging injuries. That combined with Tolbert taking his fair share of carries makes Matthews a player to avoid on draft day. For now, I see Matthews as no more than a flex starter and someone being drafted far too high.

       Ryan Torain (RB, WSH, ADP 100): In the games that Torain played last season, he was actually quite productive and a good pickup. However, he is constantly being injured and has already lost the starting spot to new acquisition Tim Hightower. With Roy Helu also figuring to get some carries, I see Torain getting lost in the mix. If you can get him in the late rounds of the draft, he may be worth a flier but don't count on him staying on the field too much.

       Cedric Benson (RB, CIN, ADP 64): None of the Bengals should excite you this year. Period. Benson was last among the top 36 rushers with 3.5 yards per carry and has very limited potential. While he is going to get a great deal of carries, he is consistently average and nothing more. And while rookie wideout A.J. Green has huge potential, this year should be a rough ride for Andy Dalton and company. Their lackluster offense has little potential for THIS season and I would avoid all of the Bengals' players.

       Sidney Rice (WR, SEA, ADP 80): Sidney Rice burst onto the fantasy scene when Brett Favre helped him produce his best season in 2009. In his four other seasons, he has not eclipsed 400 yards! Having Tavaris Jackson as his QB again does not help either. I do not see Rice being much of a factor this season. Avoid the misconception of him returning to an elite receiver.

Long gone are his glory days. So why is he even being drafted?

       LaDanian Tomlinson (RB, NYJ, ADP 114): At the beginning of last season, LT gave us flashbacks of his elite glory days. But now, those are far, far gone. After week 6, Tomlinson failed to put up more than 10 fantasy points and his play plummeted. While he will still be utilized, I don't see why one would bother with a pick on him. Oh, and as you'll see later, Shonn Greene is one of my favorite undervalued players this year. He will be the man, not LT.

       Greg Jennings (WR, GB, ADP 18): As much as it pains me to say this, I think my boy Greg Jennings is being overvalued this year. He has never been a true number 1 receiver nor the most consistent. That said, he will put up great numbers, just not top 5 numbers. With the return of Jermichael Finley and a running game in Green Bay, I think Jennings will get less targets and less scores. He should have no doubt a solid season, but since he is being drafted so high, I have to put him in my really don't like column.

No, not this Jay Cutler with muscles like mine.

        Jay Cutler (QB, CHI, ADP 115): While not many people actually like him in fantasy, he is still being drafted far too high for such an inconsistent quarterback. Last year more than half of Cutler's starts resulted in 15 or less fantasy points. Major concerns with the Bears offensive line are not helping his cause and the loss of steady Olin Kreutz is a crushing blow. Cutler should not be drafted except in the deepest of leagues.

       

Draft Day Tips: Players to Avoid

       Every draft, there are players who owners may just be dying to get, whether its someone like Michael Vick, or their surefire sleeper. At the same time, there are those players who nobody wants to touch and with good reason. Here, I present some players and (their average draft position according to ESPN) that should generally be avoided.

Quarterbacks to Avoid:

       Jay Cutler (CHI, ADP 116): If Cutler makes your roster as a backup, then you should be fine because of his potential. If he somehow ends up as your starter, then you are in big trouble. His inconsistencies outweigh any of his productiveness and is wildly hit or miss. Last year, 8 of Cutler's 15 starts produced 15 or less fantasy points. Not ideal for a QB who will be missing his Pro Bowl center.

       Matt Cassel (KC, ADP 115): Cassel produced a fantastic season amidst low fantasy expectations. But he still has just a 59% completion percentage and is on a run first team. Last year, Cassel beat up on some of the league's worst defenses but now will face a much, much tougher schedule.

Running Backs to Avoid:
       Darren McFadden (OAK, ADP 22): McFadden finally became the runner he was expected to be out of Arkansas as he racked up nearly 1,700 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns. This is despite missing 3 games for the season. However, McFadden was nearly non-existent some weeks and poses serious injury concerns. That and him being drafted so high (I've seen him go late first round) and I would avoid McFadden. Unless he drops to you in the third round, he is not worth the risk.
       Ryan Matthews (SD, ADP 43): Matthews ended his season with his only good game of the year of 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. His season as a whole was a major disappointment and opened the door for fellow teammate Mike Tolbert. Now, missing some camp time with a toe injury and coming off wrist surgery makes Matthews risky. And with Tolbert possibly stealing goal line carries, Matthews is a very risky pick.
       Any Saints RB's: When Reggie Bush was traded, it looked like Mark Ingram (ADP 65) may be the feature back. Na uh. Think again as they brought in Darren Sproles (ADP 138) to make another three-headed backfield. With Ingram, Pierre Thomas (ADP 89), and Sproles all getting carries, their draft stock is limited. Ingram still has the most potential and Thomas is the most proven, but none should excite you when drafting.
       Ryan Torain (WAS, ADP 100): In 3 of his 8 games, Torain rushed for over 100 yards and became a useful option last year (while he was not hurt). Coach Mike Shanahan and the Redskins not only drafted Roy Helu, but traded for Tim Hightower who will be in the mix. Shanahan reportedly really likes Helu and this is another backfield with limited fantasy potential.
Wide Receivers to Avoid:
       Marques Colston (NO, ADP 47): Colston is no longer the number 1 receiver he once was despite the juggernaut Saints' offense. Brees just spreads the ball out so much that every week it seems to be someone different racking up yards and scoring touchdowns. This makes all Saints' players besides Brees tough to predict. Nonetheless, Colston is still the best for the Saints and does warrant a mid round selection. Just don't overpay for him.
       Hakeem Nicks (NYG, ADP 23): It's not that you should necessarily avoid Nicks, just do not jump on him too early. He is often being drafted before Larry Fitzgerald because of his strong season last year. But I would rather have Fitzgerald who put up 1,100 yards and 7 touchdowns with terrible quarterbacks Derek Anderson, John Skelton, and Max Hall. With Kevin Kolb now, imagine the possibilities and do not take Nicks over him. Nicks should still be a top 7 WR, but he's not worth grabbing so early.
Tight Ends to Avoid:
       Owen Daniels (HOU, ADP 79): I actually like Daniels a lot, just not enough to draft him in the eighth round. He is viewed as the number six tight end and a great comeback candidate, but I would avoid him solely based on draft position. You can still grab very comparable tight ends much later in the draft and hardly lose any value. If you miss on a top five tight end, wait patiently, and let the draft come to you.
Kickers to Avoid:
       Have you read my thoughts on kickers? Pick one, unless he has Bill Gramatica potential. This marks one of my favorite childhood football memories by the way.
Defenses to Avoid:
       Arizona Cardinals (Not drafted): Arizona finished last season ranked 9th for defenses. I can guarantee that it will not happen again. Most of their points came on defensive touchdowns even though they were continually torched by opposing offenses. The loss of playmaker Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie hurts them even more. Do not draft them. Period.