Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Hate is a Strong Word, But I Really Really Don't Like These Players

       Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 23): At last, Darren McFadden burst onto the fantasy scene with his first 1,000 yard season. And with nearly 1,700 total yards and 10 total touchdowns, he was a great late round steal. But, McFadden is a huge injury risk much like Brian Westbrook was. McFadden has played at most 13 games in a season and will at some time appear on the sidelines. In some of my drafts this year, I have seen him go as high as in the first round. This. Is. Ridiculous. While there is obvious potential based on his athleticism, he is too risky I would not draft him unless he fell much further.

       Any Saints Player Not Named Drew Brees: The Saints potent offense figure to put up major points again this season but my concern is in the overload of talent there. Their backfield is a fantasy nightmare with Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles all getting some carries as well as a receiving corps that Brees spreads the ball to. Every week there is potential for someone else to put up numbers but none can be trusted on a weekly basis. Marques Colston is the closest to consistent as he should put up decent number 2 WR numbers this year even with his injury risk. Ingram and Jimmy Graham each have potential to shine but will also find it very tough to be consistent fantasy contributors.

       Reggie Bush (RB, MIA, ADP 111): His value lies solely in PPR leagues and nowhere else. He has proved that he never has been and never will be a reliable fantasy option. Do not waste a pick on him.

       Dwayne Bowe (WR, KC, ADP 38): Bowe finally broke out last season thanks in large part to overachieving play from Matt Cassel. In fantasy, touchdowns are extremely hard to predict, but I expect Bowe to fall far short of his league-leading 15 TD's last season. Last year Bowe and Cassel benefited from an easy schedule that took a bad turn towards the end of the year. Bowe struggled with only 14 catches in the last 5 games and much of his success depends on the untrustworthy Cassel. While Bowe could put up good numbers and certainly has potential to be a number 1 option, I just don't see him coming close to last season's totals.

       Peyton Manning (QB, IND, ADP 21): Manning is no doubt one of the most consistent fantasy performers year after year and you always know what you will get. While he is obviously still one of the seven elite quarterbacks this year, I actually have him ranked 6th. Someone like Philip Rivers, who has actual wide receivers to throw to this season, is a much better bargain and less of a risk. Manning's neck injury worries me and Reggie Wayne may finally be slowing down a bit. With a poor offensive line and the usual suspect running game, Manning may see his numbers take another slight dip.

       Ryan Matthews (RB, SD, ADP 41): For him to be a top 20 running back this year is just absurd. Last year, countless owner fell for his potential and took a chance on him much too early. He produced just one game with more than 15 points and that was in week 17. Well this year, Matthews continues to miss camp time with some nagging injuries. That combined with Tolbert taking his fair share of carries makes Matthews a player to avoid on draft day. For now, I see Matthews as no more than a flex starter and someone being drafted far too high.

       Ryan Torain (RB, WSH, ADP 100): In the games that Torain played last season, he was actually quite productive and a good pickup. However, he is constantly being injured and has already lost the starting spot to new acquisition Tim Hightower. With Roy Helu also figuring to get some carries, I see Torain getting lost in the mix. If you can get him in the late rounds of the draft, he may be worth a flier but don't count on him staying on the field too much.

       Cedric Benson (RB, CIN, ADP 64): None of the Bengals should excite you this year. Period. Benson was last among the top 36 rushers with 3.5 yards per carry and has very limited potential. While he is going to get a great deal of carries, he is consistently average and nothing more. And while rookie wideout A.J. Green has huge potential, this year should be a rough ride for Andy Dalton and company. Their lackluster offense has little potential for THIS season and I would avoid all of the Bengals' players.

       Sidney Rice (WR, SEA, ADP 80): Sidney Rice burst onto the fantasy scene when Brett Favre helped him produce his best season in 2009. In his four other seasons, he has not eclipsed 400 yards! Having Tavaris Jackson as his QB again does not help either. I do not see Rice being much of a factor this season. Avoid the misconception of him returning to an elite receiver.

Long gone are his glory days. So why is he even being drafted?
       LaDanian Tomlinson (RB, NYJ, ADP 114): At the beginning of last season, LT gave us flashbacks of his elite glory days. But now, those are far, far gone. After week 6, Tomlinson failed to put up more than 10 fantasy points and his play plummeted. While he will still be utilized, I don't see why one would bother with a pick on him. Oh, and as you'll see later, Shonn Greene is one of my favorite undervalued players this year. He will be the man, not LT.

       Greg Jennings (WR, GB, ADP 18): As much as it pains me to say this, I think my boy Greg Jennings is being overvalued this year. He has never been a true number 1 receiver nor the most consistent. That said, he will put up great numbers, just not top 5 numbers. With the return of Jermichael Finley and a running game in Green Bay, I think Jennings will get less targets and less scores. He should have no doubt a solid season, but since he is being drafted so high, I have to put him in my really don't like column.

No, not this Jay Cutler with muscles like mine.
        Jay Cutler (QB, CHI, ADP 115): While not many people actually like him in fantasy, he is still being drafted far too high for such an inconsistent quarterback. Last year more than half of Cutler's starts resulted in 15 or less fantasy points. Major concerns with the Bears offensive line are not helping his cause and the loss of steady Olin Kreutz is a crushing blow. Cutler should not be drafted except in the deepest of leagues.


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