Draft Prep: Players to Avoid

Avoid these players. Whether it's for injury concerns, fluke seasons, or being drafted too high, I would recommend a rethink if you are wanting to draft any of these guys.

As 1 Thessalonians 5:22 says, "Avoid every kind of evil". While these players are not evil by any means, the things they may do to your team may seem evil. And while you are at it, avoid using Bible verses out of context. Psh, I mean, who does that? But seriously, those who use individual verses to prove points miss the context and point of passages. In order to not do that, it helps to use the ladder of abstraction, which helps us find an underlying universal principal in context. For instance, when there is foot washing in the Bible, it is not proper to extrapolate and say that we, in today's culture, need to wash our neighbors' feet. Instead, we see how foot washing was a way to keep your house clean. We also can take away the theme of serving one another with humility and being hospitable.

Um, well, how does this connect at all? It does not really. But for those who find research saying that  Eric Dickerson tanked after a 380 plus carry season does not necessarily mean that Maurice Jones-Drew cannot handle it. Times are different. Athletes are built differently. In short, the game has changed. So when it comes to finding research about current situations, like Adrian Peterson's torn ACL, it can be good to look into the past for reference. Just do not hold it as truth for what will happen next.

So. Back to the actual point of this article. Here are players you should avoid on draft day.

Peyton Manning (QB, DEN, ADP 42.1): For a career filled with twice as many indoor games as outdoor games, Manning now faces 15 outdoor games this year. His outdoor numbers, while not terrible, do in fact drop significantly from his indoor numbers. That plus his age, his neck, and a brand new team makes me want to avoid Manning this year. While being the eight quarterback selected sounds like a bargain, there are much better, surefire options.

Eli Manning (QB, NYG, ADP 31.9): Both Mannings make this list as this year Eli is actually being overvalued. While he did produce a stellar 5,000 yard season last year, he still was one of the more inconsistent quarterbacks. He had six games with under 15 points and finished the year with only 29 touchdowns. Good, but not great. Of the eight other quarterbacks to ever throw for 5,000 yards in a season, they averaged 41 touchdowns. So the question: where were Manning's?

Matt Stafford (QB, DET, ADP 13.0): For a guy going borderline first round, I do not want to touch him. No doubt he has the talent to be a top five quarterback. And he has Calvin Johnson. But, he has played only one full season in his career, has a poor offensive line, and little running game. Do I want to pick a player in the first round based on one great season? Nope.

JaMarcus Russell (QB, Biggest Losers, ADP (average donuts per day) 12): Avoid him. He may just eat you, too.

Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 25.5): The thing about McFadden is that he is one the best fantasy running backs out there. The other thing is that he can rarely stay on the field. If you are feeling dicey, then McFadden could be one of the biggest steals this year. He is the epitome of a high risk, high reward player.

Frank Gore (RB, SF, 35.2): No longer viewed as a number one running back, owners should see Gore as a solid number two. Gore finally lasted a full season, but saw his workload decrease as the season went on. That said, he now has Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James, and Kendall Hunter all in the mix to steal carries. Don't be surprised if there is another decline in Gore's carries and productivity.

Roy Helu (RB, WSH, 52.6): I love this guy. He showed immense potential in his rookie campaign by compiling over 1,000 all-purpose yards to go along with 49 catches. In PPR leagues, he will be a great option. But anytime Mike Shanahan is your coach, we actually have no idea who will get the bulk of carries. For all I know, Terrell David could come out of retirement and Shanahan will give him the carries. Any Redskins' running back is risky, although Helu hopes to break the Shanahan curse and be the go-to guy.

Willis McGahee (RB, DEN, 54.3): Remember Joseph Addai in the high powered Colts' offense. Remember his incredible numbers? . . . Oh, wait. Well, McGahee, who turns 31 this year, could end up a replica of Addai, only worse. McGahee does not catch well and is poor in pass protection, which means he may not do too much this year with Manning. Before you think McGahee will ride on coattails of last year, think again.

Calvin Johnson (WR, DET, 6.8): Madden curse? Is it true? Does it affect a robot? Who knows? Other than the curse, there are no actual viable concerns for this beast of a player.

Mike Wallace (WR, PIT, 26.5): This man is still holding out. So watch out come draft day. Wallace did very little toward the end of last season and Antonio Brown emerged as a favorite of Ben Roethlisberger. In Wallace's last 9 games, he scored double digits just TWICE! For the consensus top eight wide receiver, he is one to be drafted with caution. He still has lights out potential, but has a moderately high risk component.

Vincent Jackson (WR, TB, 53.8): He has never caught more than 68 passes in a season. Or double digit touchdowns. Or 1,200 yards. A guy that always seems slightly overrated, Jackson now leaves his comfort of Philip Rivers and goes to run-heavy, Josh Freeman led Tampa Bay. Things do not look good, my friends.

Victor Cruz (WR, NYG, 31.8): This is more based on draft position than on talent or production. Cruz has the ability to replicate last year's numbers. But he almost surely will not. He scored on touchdowns last year of 68, 72, 74, 74, and 99 yards. Think he can do that again? I like Cruz and think he can still produce like a top 20 receiver, just not the top 10 where he is currently being drafted.

Andre Johnson (WR, HOU, 14.3): Yup, you read it right. For a guy who has failed to stay healthy the past two seasons, I cannot advise taking him so high this year. He has played just 20 games the past two years and while he has been productive, he has been a headache to deal with. And now Houston has become a run first team, meaning Johnson will have less chances to produce like he once did. I am not saying that Johnson is done by any means, I am just saying he is no longer the Andre we knew and used to draft first of wide receivers.

Vernon Davis (TE, SF, 52.5): He's a great talent hurt by his quarterback Alex Smith. While Smith is by no means a bad quarterback, Davis just does not get the same chances that a Jimmy Graham or even a Jason Witten get. Davis was very inconsistent last year and that is due to him getting mainly underneath throws from Smith. If Smith can air it out more, perhaps Davis will return to the top five. Till further notice, he is just a solid top 10 option.

Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, 67.0): At least he is not being drafted as early as Davis, but Finley was perhaps the most inconsistent of all fantasy players. He was plagued by drops and had only four double digit games. He has ridiculous potential, but still has not reached it.

Stephen Gostowski (K, NE, 110.1): WHY ON EARTH DO PEOPLE PICK KICKERS THIS EARLY? Wait till the LAST ROUND, close your eyes and point at the screen. There, you have your kicker! Last year, if you removed David Akers' season, there was only a 15 point difference between the 1st and 10th kicker! Even with Akers, it was still only 49 points.

Offseason Impact: From JaMarcus Russell to Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning, QB (IND to DEN): All you need to know is right here. It's Peyton Manning, everyone. Not too hard to imagine the type of impact he can have.

JaMarcus Russell, Bum (Couch Potatoes to Oscar Mayer Wieners): All kidding aside, check out this article on him from Sports Illustrated. It not only captures his true human side but how he deals with the struggles of being the biggest bust in the NFL.

Jacob Tamme, TE (IND to DEN): When Dallas Clark went down in 2010, Jacob Tamme took over. In the 10 games without Clark, Tamme caught 67 passes for over 600 yards and 4 touchdowns. Solid numbers for a guy very few people knew about (I did when he was in Kentucky but that is besides the point). Even though Denver also signed Joel Dressen from Houston, do not expect him to cut into Tamme's value. Tamme will be in line for a productive year with Manning looking his way a lot.

Michael Bush, RB (OAK to CHI): Another player who shined after the starter went down is Michael Bush, who will hopefully do better for the Bears than Marion Barber or Chester Taylor did. Bush gives the Bears extra insurance and a great power back to compliment Forte. But his time in Chicago will limit his value and make Forte's value plummet. Pay close attention to whether Forte holds out because if he does, Bush could actually get MORE touches then Forte. But don't overdraft either of these two as both will be limited by the running back committee.

Brandon Marshall, WR (MIA to CHI): Wide receivers go to die in Chicago, according to former wideout Muhsin Muhammad. Brandon Marshall, who has been a cancer in Denver and Miami, is looking for another new start in the NFL. Despite a Pro-Bowl MVP performance, he was never what Denver or Miami expected. Paired again with his former QB Jay Cutler, Marshall has a chance to really shine and make a Bears wide receiver actually relevant. Like usual, Marshall has top 10 potential, but will have to keep his BPD and dropped balls in check. He dropped 12 last year, putting him into a tie for second most among receivers. Be cautious with Marshall as he is big time risk, big time reward.

Matt Flynn, QB (GB to SEA): Aka, the next Kevin Kolb? Another mostly unproven quarterback earns a big paycheck despite limited playing experience. Flynn will be a very hard to predict quarterback this season as he has shown off his potential, but is still quite an unkown. If it helps, his mentor and number one fantasy quarterback Aaron Rodgers said that Flynn is a top 15 quarterback in the league. Whether or not he lives up to the hype, Flynn is worth a late round flier for those who need a backup quarterback. He has borderline top 10 potential, but there are better options with all the proven quarterbacks out there.

Vincent Jackson, WR (SD to TB): Jackson's value drops going from San Diego to Tampa Bay but he still will be a top 20 receiver this year. The real value change lies in Josh Freeman, who will get a significant boost throwing to Jackson. Freeman, who surprised many his rookie season, took several steps backward during his sophomore slump. Look for both to be solid fantasy contributors and locks for mid round picks.

Peyton Hillis, RB (CLE to KC): The Madden Curse. The reason I did not vote for Aaron Rodgers. An arguable reason Hillis did absolutely nothing last year. In his move to Kansas City where he will play behind Jamaal Charles, Hillis, much like Bush, will be limited. Hillis and Bush could both be touchdown stealers from Charles and Forte making what could have been four top twenty running backs into two borderline top 10 and two top 30 backs. Sigh. Running back committees.

Randy Moss, WR (FA to SF): Extremely disappointing production in 2010 followed up with no teams wanting him in 2011 does not bode well for the future Hall of Famer. But according to coach Jim Harbaugh, Moss is ready to return. With Alex Smith finally developing, Moss has great sleeper potential and could be a steal in this years draft. Then again, we may have Ochocinco 2.0. Look out as Moss could be a wasted pick. While the reward is fairly high, the risk may not be worth a pick.

Chad Henne, QB (MIA to JAX): With the the incredible rookie phenom Blaine Gabbert ahead of him... Wait, he was at that one end of the total QBR spectrum right? Oh, he was dead last? That end of the spectrum. Got it. While Henne could easily overtake the disappointing Gabbert, neither will offer fantasy value. It is as simple as it gets. I cannot fathom drafting either of them.

Brandon Lloyd, WR (STL to NE): Lloyd is an intriguing receiver for this years draft. Remember that year with Kyle Orton throwing to him? Well, I do and now, imagine Tom Brady throwing to this guy. Despite multiple options for Brady, Lloyd will have his chances and has solid number 2 wide receiver potential. This should not be a case of the Ochocinco as Lloyd has a legitimate shot to be productive. And I would draft him solely based on his Madden campaign video. Legit, I admit.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB (NE to CIN): No one thought BenJarvus would produce like he did in 2010. Well, except me. But he still did compile 11 touchdowns to go along with nearly 700 yards and zero fumbles. With Benson's status still in the air, Green-Ellis role is also undetermined. But if he does end up the number one option, Green-Ellis could have a season similar to 2010. The Bengals like to pound the ball and Green-Ellis is that guy much like Benson was. Keep BGE on your radar as he is a solid option.

Brandon Jacobs, RB (NYG to SF): Hello running back committee, again. Jacobs may not cut too heavily into Frank Gore's carries, but he certainly is a threat to steal touchdowns. With Gore being injury prone, Jacobs is definitely worth a pick this year. While his production will be tough to gauge, take a late round flier and hope it pans out.

Mario Manningham, WR (NYG to SF): Manningham has always been in the complimentary role as wide receiver and I do not expect that to change. With Randy Moss joining as well and Vernon Davis still there, keep your expectations of Manningham the same or just slightly better than his days with the Giants. The 49ers like to run and this year will be no different especially with Jacobs in the mix. Anticipate a 50 catch, 600 yard season from Manningham.

Mike Tolbert, RB (SD to CAR): Tolbert joins a very, might I say extremely, crowded backfield in Carolina. And when your quarterback was 2nd in the league in rushing touchdowns, well, good luck. Add DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to the mix, and you've got three running backs no one wants to touch. Avoid, avoid, avoid!

Robert Meachem, WR (NO to SD): Meachem could be a steal in this years draft. After years of a offense with multiple weapons, Meachem will have a chance to prove his worth in San Diego. Essentially taking over for Vincent Jackson, Meachem should be a favorite of Philip Rivers. Meachem could sneak into the top 10 by the end of the year, but for the moment, draft him in the top 25 with very high upside.

Oh wait. We were talking about Garcon.

Pierre Garcon, WR (IND to WAS): Garcon should be a top 30 receiver. Unless he absolutely gels with RGIII, do not expect a whole lot. Worth a pick, just do not get too excited.

Laurent Robinson, WR (DAL to JAX): While Miles Austin and Dez Bryant battled injuries, Robinson turned into a very reliable receiver in Dallas. But now in Jacksonville with the likes of either Henne or Blaine Gabbert throwing to him, do not expect much. Let's just say when your quarterback ranked 33rd out of 33 in total QBR, things do not look good.

Fantasy Impact: Manning to Broncos

About one week ago, my Tim Tebow jersey, along with a Clay Matthews jersey arrived in my school mailbox. I screamed loudly, my forehead vein bulging out, and I immediately Tebowed. Heads turned. People stared. It did not matter. I finally had a jersey of my role model, my man, Timmy Tebow, number fifteen of the DENVER BRONCOS. Never in my life had I cared so much for Denver. As a lifelong Green Bay fan, I had hated the Broncos ever since the 1998 Super Bowl. Not anymore. Because of one man.

Tim Tebow.

Number 15.

Of the.

NO LONGER DENVER BRONCOS!

While at first the Broncos trade hit a brief snag with the Jets, Tebow is now officially a member of the New York Jets. This is quite a bummer considering the price of NFL jerseys these days... I mean, even though I'm a Tebow fan and not a Broncos fan, nobody wants to be like that guy who always wears a New York Jets FAVRE jersey. I mean, really?

And what were the Broncos thinking anyway? Peyton Manning cannot throw nearly as accurate a wobbler as Tebow! Tebow has hands down one of the best wobblers I have ever seen. Period. End of discussion.

My personal feelings and all jokes aside, Manning's arrival means BIG things in the NFL, and has major fantasy implications. Before Manning's consecutive starts of 227 ended, Manning was the epitome of consistency. Since 2002 and ignoring last season when he was injured, he has never been outside of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks ranking 3,1,1,3,1,3,6,4,3 among quarterbacks up to 2010. Assuming Manning does fully regain his strength, we can expect nothing less than another elite season from Manning.

In Denver, Manning will be in an optimal situation with one the most complete teams on which he has ever been. Led by two-time Pro Bowler Ryan Clady, Manning will enjoy a very solid offensive line to go along with a productive run game. Young receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker give Manning okay options who could blossom with a competent quarterback throwing to them. For the two receivers that combined for 76 catches, 1163 yards, and 12 touchdowns, you can expect something more like that for EACH this season.

Here are the WR/TE (combined) rankings for Manning's top two targets since 2002.

• 2010: 9th, 30th
• 2009: 6th, 12th
• 2008: 15th, 31st
• 2007: 4th, 27th
• 2006: 1st, 3rd
• 2005: 6th, 21st
• 2004: 5th, 7th
• 2003: 5th, 21st
• 2002: 1st, 50th

While Decker and Thomas are no Wayne or Harrison, just imagine the impact Manning will have one these two blossoming receivers. Both Decker and Thomas will be entering the magical third season in the league and they will go from catching wobblers, to catching lasers. Both wideouts showed flashes of potential throughout the season and both have shown their big play capabilities. And Manning's top two targets are highly likely to both have productive seasons. 

While neither receiver is polished or a big name yet, I expect some drastic improvement. However, one area for concern is their ability to hold onto the ball. Both receivers ranked in the bottom twenty receivers for drop percentages of those who had at least 30 catchable balls thrown their way. Of 53 catchable balls thrown Decker's way, he caught 44, resulting in 9 drops for a drop percentage of 16.98 percent. Of 37 catachable balls thrown Thomas' way, he caught 32, resulting in 5 drops for a drop percentage of 13.51 percent. (numbers courtesy of https://www.profootballfocus.com/)

These numbers are alarming, but I think they will change with another year under their belt and that guy named Manning throwing to them. No joke. Going from a high and behind wobbler to a laser to the chest could make a crucial difference. Gone are the days of diving into traffic for balls. Gone are the days of Tebow missing them when they were actually open. Enter crisp routes where the ball will be thrown there right on time to the chest. Enter, Peyton Manning.

So what does this all mean? Well, for starters, Manning will surely be a top 10, maybe even top five quarterback again. Expect Demaryius Thomas to be a top 15, maybe even top 10 wide receiver while Eric Decker has the potential to be anywhere from a top 30 to top 15 wide receiver. As of now, I would expect to draft both somewhere among the top 20 wide receivers.

As for Denver's running backs, I would avoid them, but expect solid contributions from a mix of Knowshon Moreno, Willis McGahee, and even Lance Ball. If one is able to emerge as the clear cut starter, expect production similar or slightly better than the days of Joseph Addai.

And as for Tebow. Well, I love the guy and all, but expect little to no value if he winds up in New York. While he certainly could push the Jets to bench Mark Sanchez, I just do not see that happening. But then again, no one really expected Tebow to play as much as he did leading up to last season. And if you are feeling like Tebow may overtake the supposedly lazy and previously unchallenged Sanchez, well by all means take a flier on him and perhaps there will be more Tebow Time this upcoming season.

Finally. All this Tebow news did not come without the expense of my own personal happiness and dignity.

11:32 AM, March 21st.
I thought I received the best news of my life.

Walking through the Chick-Fil-A parking lot, I get a text from a trustworthy, reliable friend. I read the words, "Dude, Tebow just signed with the Packers." Immediately, I jumped up and down, screaming like a little girl, probably much like a girl at a Justin Bieber concert. My heart pounded. My body leaped for joy. My sisters backed away from me. Slowly. Pretending not to know me...

I ran inside Chick-Fil-A and began began searching for the article on ESPN when to my dismay, I found out my that friend was misinformed. Tebow was heading to the Jets. What would have been my wildest dream come true, was now over. The hope of Aaron Rodgers and staff turning Tebow into a real quarterback had been crushed. My dream, my hope, my heart, flipped upside down.

Hate is a Strong Word, But I Really Really Don't Like These Players

       Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 23): At last, Darren McFadden burst onto the fantasy scene with his first 1,000 yard season. And with nearly 1,700 total yards and 10 total touchdowns, he was a great late round steal. But, McFadden is a huge injury risk much like Brian Westbrook was. McFadden has played at most 13 games in a season and will at some time appear on the sidelines. In some of my drafts this year, I have seen him go as high as in the first round. This. Is. Ridiculous. While there is obvious potential based on his athleticism, he is too risky I would not draft him unless he fell much further.

       Any Saints Player Not Named Drew Brees: The Saints potent offense figure to put up major points again this season but my concern is in the overload of talent there. Their backfield is a fantasy nightmare with Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles all getting some carries as well as a receiving corps that Brees spreads the ball to. Every week there is potential for someone else to put up numbers but none can be trusted on a weekly basis. Marques Colston is the closest to consistent as he should put up decent number 2 WR numbers this year even with his injury risk. Ingram and Jimmy Graham each have potential to shine but will also find it very tough to be consistent fantasy contributors.

       Reggie Bush (RB, MIA, ADP 111): His value lies solely in PPR leagues and nowhere else. He has proved that he never has been and never will be a reliable fantasy option. Do not waste a pick on him.

       Dwayne Bowe (WR, KC, ADP 38): Bowe finally broke out last season thanks in large part to overachieving play from Matt Cassel. In fantasy, touchdowns are extremely hard to predict, but I expect Bowe to fall far short of his league-leading 15 TD's last season. Last year Bowe and Cassel benefited from an easy schedule that took a bad turn towards the end of the year. Bowe struggled with only 14 catches in the last 5 games and much of his success depends on the untrustworthy Cassel. While Bowe could put up good numbers and certainly has potential to be a number 1 option, I just don't see him coming close to last season's totals.

       Peyton Manning (QB, IND, ADP 21): Manning is no doubt one of the most consistent fantasy performers year after year and you always know what you will get. While he is obviously still one of the seven elite quarterbacks this year, I actually have him ranked 6th. Someone like Philip Rivers, who has actual wide receivers to throw to this season, is a much better bargain and less of a risk. Manning's neck injury worries me and Reggie Wayne may finally be slowing down a bit. With a poor offensive line and the usual suspect running game, Manning may see his numbers take another slight dip.

       Ryan Matthews (RB, SD, ADP 41): For him to be a top 20 running back this year is just absurd. Last year, countless owner fell for his potential and took a chance on him much too early. He produced just one game with more than 15 points and that was in week 17. Well this year, Matthews continues to miss camp time with some nagging injuries. That combined with Tolbert taking his fair share of carries makes Matthews a player to avoid on draft day. For now, I see Matthews as no more than a flex starter and someone being drafted far too high.

       Ryan Torain (RB, WSH, ADP 100): In the games that Torain played last season, he was actually quite productive and a good pickup. However, he is constantly being injured and has already lost the starting spot to new acquisition Tim Hightower. With Roy Helu also figuring to get some carries, I see Torain getting lost in the mix. If you can get him in the late rounds of the draft, he may be worth a flier but don't count on him staying on the field too much.

       Cedric Benson (RB, CIN, ADP 64): None of the Bengals should excite you this year. Period. Benson was last among the top 36 rushers with 3.5 yards per carry and has very limited potential. While he is going to get a great deal of carries, he is consistently average and nothing more. And while rookie wideout A.J. Green has huge potential, this year should be a rough ride for Andy Dalton and company. Their lackluster offense has little potential for THIS season and I would avoid all of the Bengals' players.

       Sidney Rice (WR, SEA, ADP 80): Sidney Rice burst onto the fantasy scene when Brett Favre helped him produce his best season in 2009. In his four other seasons, he has not eclipsed 400 yards! Having Tavaris Jackson as his QB again does not help either. I do not see Rice being much of a factor this season. Avoid the misconception of him returning to an elite receiver.

Long gone are his glory days. So why is he even being drafted?

       LaDanian Tomlinson (RB, NYJ, ADP 114): At the beginning of last season, LT gave us flashbacks of his elite glory days. But now, those are far, far gone. After week 6, Tomlinson failed to put up more than 10 fantasy points and his play plummeted. While he will still be utilized, I don't see why one would bother with a pick on him. Oh, and as you'll see later, Shonn Greene is one of my favorite undervalued players this year. He will be the man, not LT.

       Greg Jennings (WR, GB, ADP 18): As much as it pains me to say this, I think my boy Greg Jennings is being overvalued this year. He has never been a true number 1 receiver nor the most consistent. That said, he will put up great numbers, just not top 5 numbers. With the return of Jermichael Finley and a running game in Green Bay, I think Jennings will get less targets and less scores. He should have no doubt a solid season, but since he is being drafted so high, I have to put him in my really don't like column.

No, not this Jay Cutler with muscles like mine.

        Jay Cutler (QB, CHI, ADP 115): While not many people actually like him in fantasy, he is still being drafted far too high for such an inconsistent quarterback. Last year more than half of Cutler's starts resulted in 15 or less fantasy points. Major concerns with the Bears offensive line are not helping his cause and the loss of steady Olin Kreutz is a crushing blow. Cutler should not be drafted except in the deepest of leagues.