Quarterback Consistency Ratings

Using standard scoring (6 points for all touchdowns, 1 point for 25 passing yards), I have put together a consistency chart from last season. When it comes to fantasy football, consistency is quite possibly the most important factor when it comes to drafting players. There are players like Devery Henderson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Beanie Wells who can produce monster weeks. Then they follow up with a dud. The main problem with these players is that they are not reliable week to week players. So finding players who can produce on a weekly basis is essential to winning.

The chart (below) is pretty straight forward and does not need too much analysis. But here are a couple of my quick notes from the chart.

• Aaron Rodgers does have a real argument to be the number one overall pick. Talk about consistent. 
• While Matt Stafford and Cam Newton are considered elite this year, there is a solid drop-off from Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
• Of the top 10 last year, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers produced the most duds.
• Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, and Newton were the only QB's with multiple freak games. None for Brady or Michael Vick.
• While Vick disappointed, he was not as inconsistent as Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, or Philip Rivers (Although he did miss more games).
• Ben Roethlisberger really had some duds, but he also flashed freak potential.
• Of quarterbacks outside of the top 10, Tebow really is a solid option. If he were not a backup in real life, he could make an impact again in the fantasy world. 
• Peyton Manning is clearly not here. But if we looked any of Manning's previous seasons, I'm pretty sure he'd be near the top. Just a hunch.

So here are the quarterback consistency ratings from last year.

But before you lay your eyes on this graph, I apologize for the sheer ugliness. This is why I am no longer a Computer Science major. This stuff just did not click in my brain. And no friends, for whatever dumb reason, there is no "inset table button". Rather, I had to do the whole shabang in html. Fun, huh? No. Not. At. All. If I ever do a running backs or wide receivers consistency chart, you can bet I'll hire a CS major to help me. Seriously, how the heck does it not line up? I must have spent about 20 minutes just trying to make it line up and this is what I got. Sigh. Enjoy.

* Update. Three hours later and I have figured it out. Brilliant! The chart's columns are lined up!

	Freak	Stud	Great	Start	Dud
Player	> 35	25	20	15	<15	Inj/Sit	% Great
Rodgers	5	7	3	0	0	1	100.00
Brees	4	6	3	2	1	0	81.25
Brady	1	8	4	3	0	0	81.25
Stafford	3	5	3	3	2	0	68.75
Newton	2	7	2	2	3	0	68.75
E.Manning	0	7	3	1	5	0	62.50
Romo	1	5	2	5	2	1	53.33
Ryan	1	4	2	5	4	0	43.75
Rivers	0	4	2	5	5	0	37.50
Sanchez	0	3	4	3	6	0	43.75
Vick	0	5	2	2	4	3	53.85
Fitzpatrick	0	3	1	5	7	0	25.00
Big Ben	1	1	2	4	7	1	26.67
Smith	0	0	5	3	8	0	31.25
Flacco	0	2	1	4	9	0	18.75
Dalton	0	2	2	4	8	0	25.00
Freeman	0	1	2	4	8	1	20.00
Hasselbeck	0	0	5	2	9	0	31.25
Tebow	0	3	1	5	3	4	33.33
Schaub	0	1	4	1	4	6	50.00

Elite QB Strategy Vs. Two-QB Strategy

       For the past several years in fantasy football, the value of a quarterback has gradually increased. While it used to be uncommon for a quarterback to go in round 1, we have seen a large amount of quarterbacks drafted in the early rounds. While there are 6 clear elite quarterbacks this year, and maybe a seventh in Tony Romo, the depth at quarterback has also increased. While some prefer to jump on the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick, others prefer to wait for a combination like Matt Stafford and Eli Manning. There can be benefits to either strategy.

       While in the past I would have waited to draft a QB like Ben Roethisberger later, I have now become an advocate of taking a QB in rounds 2-4. Each draft will vary, but you cannot argue with the consistency and production from this year's top 7. Besides Michael Vick, you almost know what you will get from these top quarterbacks. Even Tony Romo last year was on pace for a solid 4280 yards and 29 touchdowns before he got injured. Just take a look at the averages for the past 3 full seasons for each elite quarterback. 

Quarterback	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns
Aaron Rodgers	4131	29
Drew Brees	4692	34
Michael Vick (just last year's)	3018	21
Philip Rivers	4324	31
Tom Brady	4368	38
Peyton Manning	4401	31
Tony Romo	4047	30

       Obviously, with players like Rodgers and Vick, they see their points increase greatly thanks to rushing stats which also helps their argument as surefire first rounders. But you can see why it is to your benefit to grab one of the elites. They have the marks of consistent production year in and year out. That said, overpaying can leave you short-handed at key WR and RB positions, so be careful. Snagging someone like Philip Rivers, for instance, who is not too different from Rodgers, is a better bargain being drafted 2-3 rounds later. But stretching for someone like Peyton Manning, who I have advised to be avoided in drafts for now obvious reasons, can be a poorly valued pick.

       So the question that arises is, "What if I want to wait altogether on a quarterback? How much do I lose by going with the likes of Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford as opposed to Tom Brady?". The answer is not simple. For one, you lose a bench spot to a quarterback. With a top 7 QB, you hardly need a backup save their bye weeks. For any other quarterback, you will surely need a backup. In addition, playing matchups can become stressful and it makes for tough weekly decisions.

       So let's take a look at some scenarios that may have played out in just last season. I will assume that the best decision possible was made each week in these 2-QB scenarios.

Quarterbacks	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns
Flacco/Roethlisberger	4310	29
Eli Manning/Ryan	4185	39
Cutler/Cassel	3674	33
Bradford/Sanchez	4052	24
Palmer/Schaub	5076	34

       So, clearly the two quarterback strategy can work. In fact, it can even work better than an elite quarterback. But this strategy is risky and far from a given. Playing the matchups perfectly is nearly impossible to do. And the fact that these quarterbacks are not as consistent as the elite leaves you vulnerable to implosions. 

       The quarterbacks being drafted later are drafted for clear reasons. Some may be injury-prone like Stafford, others may be pick magnets like Manning, and some are still young and unproven like Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford. I do believe that there is great potential for some of these quarterbacks, but they no doubt have a risk and a bit of an "unknown" factor. That is, we still do not really know how they will do. This is a sharp contrast to someone like Brady or Rodgers. Consistency is a big issue as well; thus, making matchup playing a nightmare. 

       Is it worth it? To me, the answer is no. To others who think they are brilliant coaches and matchup wizards, go for it. But I would much rather have the safety of a Rivers, Rodgers, or Brady than a mixture of Eli Manning and Matt Stafford. I figure, you save a bench spot for a non-quarterback and avoid stressful decision making during the week. Not only are you going to get consistent, solid production, you will have the luxury in knowing that you have a top quarterback who does not need to be subbed out. 

       If you do miss out on an elite quarterback (Tony Romo signifies the end of the elites), don't panic and be patient. Who knows, getting Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford could be a blessing in disguise. This year there is potential outside of the top 7 for similar production to an elite quarterback. While you won't be nearly as safe, you can still have a top-notch team that can crack the playoffs. I still advise getting a top tier QB, but at least for this season, it is not the end of the world to miss out. 

all stats from ESPN stats and game logs

2011 Fantasy QB Rankings

Ranking   Player                  Bye Week

1           Aaron Rodgers       8
2           Drew Brees            11
3           Michael Vick          7
4           Philip Rivers           6
5           Tom Brady             7
6           Peyton Manning     11
7           Tony Romo            5
8           Matt Schaub          11
9           Ben Roethlisberger 11
10         Matt Ryan              8
11         Josh Freeman        8
12         Joe Flacco             5
13         Sam Bradford         5
14         Matt Cassel           6
15         Eli Manning            7

Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Drew Brees
       Player I rather have: Aaron Rodgers. Vick is a big risk in the first round for reasons stated in my previous article, but still an elite QB. Rodgers has proven himself after 3 spectacular seasons and has no reason to slow down with an offense that has even more potential this year.
       Why is Brees here and not the next tier? He threw for a career high 22 interceptions last year, but also had a career high in 658 pass attempts. He has thrown for at least 33 touchdowns in the past three years and has easily eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in the past 5. He is much safer a pick than Vick.

Tier 2: Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning
       Player I would rather have:  Philip Rivers. While Manning and Brady are both benchmarks for consistency and always very safe and solid picks, I think Rivers’ potential and talent around him makes him a better option. That said, you clearly cannot go wrong with any of these players. Manning’s neck also worries me a little bit and so does Brady’s receiving corp. But has that ever stopped them?

Tier 3: Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger
       Player I would rather have: Tony Romo. He was on pace for a monster season before an injury sidelined him. Dallas is loaded with talent and Romo looks to pick up where he left off. Before last season, he had three straight seasons of 26 or more touchdowns and two seasons with over 4,000 yards. Expect a big season from Romo.

Tier 4: Matt Ryan, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford,
       Player I would rather have: Matt Ryan. Ryan exceeded expectations and had a great season throwing for 28 TD’s and 3,705 yards. With Julio Jones, I expect him to do just as well. The Falcons are still a run first, pound the ball team, but that shouldn’t keep you from drafting him.
       This tier has several solid quarterbacks for those who miss out on the elite QB’s. The possibility of a 2 QB strategy starts here as one can take two of the above and play matchups, hot streaks, etc.

Tier 5: Matt Cassel, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Matt Stafford
       Player I want on my team: Matt Stafford. Stafford has loads of potential on a vastly improving Lions team. He has stud Calvin Johnson to throw to and has potential to put up great numbers. The main concern is his injury risk as he has only played in 13 of 32 games. But for a late round flier, he could produce like a low-end number 1 option.
       Players I never ever want on my team: Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel. Jay Cutler is just way too inconsistent for fantasy and the Chicago Bears. And Cassel really is just an average quarterback who completes under 60% of his passes. If you draft either of these, make sure to draft another solid quarterback for if and when these two go cold.

Michael Vick, the Number One Pick?

Michael Vick’s reemergence last season with Philadelphia was the fantasy story of the year and led countless owners to fantasy championships. His 57 point outburst against Washington in week 10 ranks as one of the best performances in history and is one of the reasons some people are considering Vick as the number 1 overall  pick in this upcoming fantasy season. My response to that: NO. Nope. Don’t fall for it. No.

There is no doubt Vick is extremely gifted and is a top 5 fantasy quarterback, but number 1 overall? I just do not see it. For starters, there are two extremely safe options in Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson and maybe even Arian Foster. There is a huge ceiling for Vick, but I think the risk is too great for the number 1 pick.  With Vick, there are several concerns that I have with him.

We all know that much of Vick’s fantasy value stems from his uncanny rushing ability and last year was no exception. For his career, Vick’s rushing stats have accounted for 42.3 % of his total fantasy output. Last year was surprisingly low as his rushing totals accounted for only 38 % of his total. However, his 9 rushing touchdowns in just 12 games contributed to much of that, putting Vick into the elite quarterback category.  Now imagine that for a full season! But wait, even for Vick, that will be extremely hard to repeat as rushing touchdowns vary greatly year to year. For his 4 previous full seasons, Vick averaged 4.75 rushing touchdowns a season. Vick should be good for about 5 rushing touchdowns a year, but 9 just seems highly unlikely again. While 5 is good and a great bonus for a quarterback, it wont be enough to make me draft Vick first.

Anyone remember when Braylon Edwards scored 16 touchdowns in 2007 and then bet next year he would have twice as many touchdown as Michael Phelps had gold medals? Well, he had 3 the next season. I think Phelps won that bet… While Edwards is not on the talent level of Vick, my point is that touchdown production is tough to match on a yearly basis. And with regards to rushing touchdowns, the fluctuation among individuals is great and can vary based on a number of factors. For Vick to match 9 would require many things to go right.

Will we be seeing Vick on the sideline this year?

And the thing that scares me most of Michael Vick is him being one of the most hit quarterbacks in the league. In just 12 games last season, Vick was sacked 34 times and hit often on scrambles.Vick was sacked at the fourth highest rate in the league and the hits will continue. Vick is no doubt electric, but taking so many hits can make fantasy owners cringe. It could be only a matter of time before he is on the sideline. After all, in his 8 seasons in the league, Vick has played just ONE full season.

Another interesting stat is Vick’s completion percentage from last year. He set a career high with a percentage of 62.6 %, more than 6 percent higher than his previous career high. This can attributed to not only his personal improvement, but the best talent he has ever had around him. But such a high jump worries me that it will be tough to match once again. Along these lines, he threw for 3,000 yards for just the first time in his career and had a sky high yards per completion. This is partly because of the talent surrounding him and the Eagles ranking 8th in yards after catch according to hosted.stats.com. If anything, these could be seen as signs that Vick will continue to improve and be a fantasy stud. But should he be the number 1 pick?

The answer is still no. But would I take him 6th? Maybe. 10th? There’s a good chance. Early 2nd round? Not even a question in my mind. For Vick, consistency is still an issue and I would much rather have Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson before him. My top 2 quaterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are extremely consistent and have proven their worth of being picked late in the 1st round. Drafting any quarterback early is a risky strategy as you could easily miss out on an elite running back, even with a deep class this year. But Vick has unlimited fantasy potential and could make or break someone’s season. For risk takers, Vick is a perfect fit around the 5th pick and could be a steal even there. He could also be a huge letdown, and leave you looking for, gulp, Rex Grossman on the waivers.

Stats found on nfl.com and hosted.stats.com