2013 Tight End Tiers and Consistencies

Goodbye, Aaron Hernandez. Goodbye young Antonio Gates. Please get healthy, Rob Gronkowski. And good luck with drafting a tight end this year. Unless you get unquestioned number one Jimmy Graham, Gronk, Gonzalez, or Witten, you have little to no idea what you're getting. But that's why I'm here, folks.

The top tight end last year, Jimmy Graham, scored in double digits just SIX times. And Gronkowski scored in double digits just seven times: a far cry from what was supposed to be the deepest and best tight end class we've seen in a while. But instead we ended with tight ends who scored on average worse than kickers. And you all know how I feel about kickers. So let's take a look at some interesting stats.

Gronkowski missed five games yet scored just five points less than number one tight end Jimmy Graham. When healthy, Gronkowski is clearly the best the position has to offer.

Tony Gonzalez, now 36, had just a 2.8 yards-after-catch average, evidence of him slowing down. Yet he did manage the third most points for a tight end.

Kyle Rudolph had five double digit games last season. He also had seven games with two or less points. He finished ninth overall.

From week five through week twelve, Jermichael Finley never caught more than four passes. But in his first four games and last three he averaged 5.3 catches per game. Not half bad in other words. And now Greg Jennings is gone.

After Colin Kaepernick's first start where Vernon Davis put up 83 yards and one touchdown, Davis caught SIX passes in the next SIX games.

Jason Witten accumulated 110 catches but just three touchdowns to show for it.

And here's the kicker (pun intended):

• The top 10 tight ends averaged a total of 116.4 points for the season. The top 10 kickers meanwhile averaged a total of 148.7 points for the season.
• The difference between the 1st and 10th kicker was, as expected, a very low 30 points. The difference between the 1st and 10th tight end is just 47 points. In comparison, the 1st QB and 10th QB was 74, the 1st RB and 20th RB was 158, the 1st WR and 20th WR was 79, and the 1st DST and 10th DST was 81..

So what this means is that at least last year, having the best tight end was not nearly as beneficial in comparison to the field as was the top QB, RB, WR, or even the top DST! The tight ends last year were simply mediocre and essentially almost as useless and unpredictable as kickers. The big question is if that will remain true this year. 

With tiers, you will be helped in deciding if you think Jimmy Graham is worth a third or fourth round pick. And it should help you figure out just how much value the tight end has this year. For me, if I can get Witten or Gonzalez in the fifth to seventh round, maybe I'll bite. At least I know I should get around 60 yards per week from them. As for anyone else, I admit, I have no freaking clue. It's that bad. Like the sweater you got for Christmas bad. Or Tim Tebow completion percentage bad. Or even worse, the Aaron Hernandez jersey you just got bad. So with all that badness, here are your 2013 tight end tiers.

Tier 1: The Elite

1. Rob Gronkowski (ADP 40.8)

2. Jimmy Graham (ADP 26.1)

Despite missing five games, Gronkowski scored 11 touchdowns and finished second in points for a tight end. Had he played the whole season at his rate, he would have had 80 catches, 1150 yards, and 16 touchdowns. But the fact is that Gronk has officially become injury prone. He got hurt in the Super Bowl against the Giants and this past season and now multiple surgeries later, Gronk is hoping to retain his elite form. And Graham, who was snubbed in the NFL's top 100 players, is the closest thing to Gronk. If he hadn't dropped a league leading 14 passes, Graham would have been even more spectacular. But assuming he can cut down on drops and with the return of Sean Payton, I expect another solid year from Graham. 

Who I want the most: It has to be Gronk despite his injury concerns. Because right now at his average draft position he brings tremendous draft day value. If he was not hurt, he certainly would be ahead of Graham and in the second to third round range as well. Even if he misses a few games, pick up Jermichael Finley and hope for the best. Or take any other option and hope for the best. But when he is healthy, you've got the biggest positional advantage in the game. And the lack of weapons should only help out Gronkowski. There's just enough there in New England to keep Gronk from being constantly double teamed and he should be just fine. Just look at Calvin Johnson without any help. 

Tier 2: The Elderly Elite:

3. Jason Witten (ADP 56.3)

4. Tony Gonzalez (ADP 52.3)

5. Vernon Davis (ADP 59.2)

Davis is not nearly as old as Witten or Gonzlez, but he sure looked it last year. He had a miserable year with Kaepernick but fortunately made a connection with his QB in the playoffs. And Michael Crabtree's injury could pave way to many more targets in San Francisco. Witten is coming off a monstrous 110 catch season and Gonzalez continues to withstand Father Time. Witten did score just three touchdowns but was a constant and reliable option and will continue to be this season. Gonzalez will still see plenty of red zone targets but will be hurt a bit by incoming Steven Jackson who will add his pass-catching ability to the mix.

Who I want the most: I'll take Witten and his reliability. Gonzalez at age 37 has limited upside and Davis is simply too inconsistent. Witten can still put up large numbers and if his touchdowns returns to a more typical 5-7, he could even surpass Jimmy Graham this year. But if you want an elite tight end this year, make sure you take one of these five in the first 60 picks otherwise you will miss out. 

Tier 3: The Next Five

6*. Dennis Pitta (had he not just dislocated his hip. Likely out for much of season)

7*. Heath Miller (had he not torn his ACL, MCL, and PCL. Likely out much of season)

6. Owen Daniels (ADP 92.1)

7. Antonio Gates (ADP 96.0)

8. Kyle Rudolph (ADP 85.9)

9. Greg Olsen (ADP 96.7)

10. Brandon Myers (ADP 117.8)

Here's a great mixture of mediocre tight ends. Daniels has been okay but nothing special the past several seasons. And on a run-heavy Texans team, he just never racks up too many catches or yards. Rudolph scored nine touchdowns on just 53 catches. Touchdowns are year in and year out very inconsistent and hard to predict (Calvin Johnson has scored 4, 12, 5, 12, 16, and 5 TD's over the years). So one simply cannot count on another year like this from Rudolph. It is much more likely that he replicates his mediocre catches and yardage than his elite touchdown output. Olsen and Myers would both be suited better as a number two option but have found themselves in the top ten. And Gates has fallen off the map the last several years.

Who I want the most: None of them really... But I'll take my chances on Gates. He's old. And partially washed up. But I'm anticipating that Philip Rivers will rebound with the Mike McCoy led offense. A hopefully improved offensive line and gloves should benefit Rivers. Gloves you say? Without gloves last season, Rivers threw 18 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. With gloves for four games, Rivers posted eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. And I expect these new changes to benefit not only Rivers but also Gates.

Tier 4: Who Knows?

11. Jermichael Finley (ADP 126.2)

12. Martellus Bennett (ADP 130.9)

13. Jared Cook (ADP 121.2)

14. Tyler Eifert (ADP 145.0)

15. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP 137.0)

16. Fred Davis (ADP 141.6)

17. Dustin Keller (ADP 145.5)

Besides Eifert, most of the guys here have been disappointments at some time. Finley is a perennial bust, Pettigrew is a drop and fumble machine, Davis is an injury machine, the once solid Keller is now an undersized and under-performing tight end, and Cook, like Finley, does not live up to his potential. Eifert clearly has the highest upside here but will also play alongside Jermaine Gresham who will get his fair share of catches.

Who I want the most: Sadly, it is Jermichael Finley. And believe me, it is not because I am a Packers fan. Of all the Packers players, Finley represents the organization the worst and is probably the most yelled-at player on the team. But with Greg Jennings out of the picture, Finley might finally put something together. And believe it or not, Finley has some of the best hands on the team. Now I know that is hard to believe. His issues have actually been more about his lack of mental focus and inability to catch in traffic than his actual catching ability. But with more targets presumably and a newly-found focus, Finley might finally make a splash.

Tier 5: Sleeper Zone

18. Jake Ballard (ADP 170.0)

19. Coby Fleener (ADP 144.2)

20. Jermaine Gresham (ADP 142.6)

21. Jordan Cameron (ADP 170.0)

22. Tim Tebow (ADP N/A)

After putting Tebow in the running back tiers as a joke, this is a joke that could possibly become true (although still unlikely he would actually gain tight end eligibility). Ballard has the most potential here as he should take over for Aaron Hernandez. Fleener and Cameron both have great potential for their air attacks. And Greshman is in fantasy limbo as he went from a borderline top ten option to a fantasy outcast.

Who I want the most: I'll take Ballard. Before he tore up his knee last season, he put together a very solid rookie year in New York. He's got great size, okay hands and okay speed. With limited options in New England, it would be a bargain if he can put up numbers anything close to Hernandez's numbers. But keep an eye on former basketball player Jordan Cameron who has all the athleticism that would scream NFL tight end. He's got a long way to go to become a complete NFL player but could surprise.

And here is your consistency chart. As you can see, not too many scored in the double digits. And I chose 6+ games as a benchmark because the top ten tight ends all averaged at least six points per game.

Name	Double Digit Games	6+ games
Rob Gronkowski	7/11 (5 injured)	9
Jimmy Graham	6	11
Jason Witten	5	9
Tony Gonzalez	7	9
Vernon Davis	5	5
Owen Daniels	4	7
Antonio Gates	4	6
Kyle Rudolph	5	9
Greg Olsen	4	5
Brandon Myers	3	6
Jermichael Finley	2	7
Martellus Bennett	4	6
Jared Cook	1	5
Tyler Eifert	N/A	N/A
Brandon Pettigrew	1	6
Fred Davis	0 (played 7 games)	2
Dustin Keller	2 (played 8 games)	3
Jake Ballard (2011)	3 (played 14 games)	5
Coby Fleener	0	3
Jermaine Gresham	4	9
Jordan Cameron	0	1
Tim Tebow	0	0
Nate Amodio	0	0

Draft Prep: Players to Avoid

Avoid these players. Whether it's for injury concerns, fluke seasons, or being drafted too high, I would recommend a rethink if you are wanting to draft any of these guys.

As 1 Thessalonians 5:22 says, "Avoid every kind of evil". While these players are not evil by any means, the things they may do to your team may seem evil. And while you are at it, avoid using Bible verses out of context. Psh, I mean, who does that? But seriously, those who use individual verses to prove points miss the context and point of passages. In order to not do that, it helps to use the ladder of abstraction, which helps us find an underlying universal principal in context. For instance, when there is foot washing in the Bible, it is not proper to extrapolate and say that we, in today's culture, need to wash our neighbors' feet. Instead, we see how foot washing was a way to keep your house clean. We also can take away the theme of serving one another with humility and being hospitable.

Um, well, how does this connect at all? It does not really. But for those who find research saying that  Eric Dickerson tanked after a 380 plus carry season does not necessarily mean that Maurice Jones-Drew cannot handle it. Times are different. Athletes are built differently. In short, the game has changed. So when it comes to finding research about current situations, like Adrian Peterson's torn ACL, it can be good to look into the past for reference. Just do not hold it as truth for what will happen next.

So. Back to the actual point of this article. Here are players you should avoid on draft day.

Peyton Manning (QB, DEN, ADP 42.1): For a career filled with twice as many indoor games as outdoor games, Manning now faces 15 outdoor games this year. His outdoor numbers, while not terrible, do in fact drop significantly from his indoor numbers. That plus his age, his neck, and a brand new team makes me want to avoid Manning this year. While being the eight quarterback selected sounds like a bargain, there are much better, surefire options.

Eli Manning (QB, NYG, ADP 31.9): Both Mannings make this list as this year Eli is actually being overvalued. While he did produce a stellar 5,000 yard season last year, he still was one of the more inconsistent quarterbacks. He had six games with under 15 points and finished the year with only 29 touchdowns. Good, but not great. Of the eight other quarterbacks to ever throw for 5,000 yards in a season, they averaged 41 touchdowns. So the question: where were Manning's?

Matt Stafford (QB, DET, ADP 13.0): For a guy going borderline first round, I do not want to touch him. No doubt he has the talent to be a top five quarterback. And he has Calvin Johnson. But, he has played only one full season in his career, has a poor offensive line, and little running game. Do I want to pick a player in the first round based on one great season? Nope.

JaMarcus Russell (QB, Biggest Losers, ADP (average donuts per day) 12): Avoid him. He may just eat you, too.

Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 25.5): The thing about McFadden is that he is one the best fantasy running backs out there. The other thing is that he can rarely stay on the field. If you are feeling dicey, then McFadden could be one of the biggest steals this year. He is the epitome of a high risk, high reward player.

Frank Gore (RB, SF, 35.2): No longer viewed as a number one running back, owners should see Gore as a solid number two. Gore finally lasted a full season, but saw his workload decrease as the season went on. That said, he now has Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James, and Kendall Hunter all in the mix to steal carries. Don't be surprised if there is another decline in Gore's carries and productivity.

Roy Helu (RB, WSH, 52.6): I love this guy. He showed immense potential in his rookie campaign by compiling over 1,000 all-purpose yards to go along with 49 catches. In PPR leagues, he will be a great option. But anytime Mike Shanahan is your coach, we actually have no idea who will get the bulk of carries. For all I know, Terrell David could come out of retirement and Shanahan will give him the carries. Any Redskins' running back is risky, although Helu hopes to break the Shanahan curse and be the go-to guy.

Willis McGahee (RB, DEN, 54.3): Remember Joseph Addai in the high powered Colts' offense. Remember his incredible numbers? . . . Oh, wait. Well, McGahee, who turns 31 this year, could end up a replica of Addai, only worse. McGahee does not catch well and is poor in pass protection, which means he may not do too much this year with Manning. Before you think McGahee will ride on coattails of last year, think again.

Calvin Johnson (WR, DET, 6.8): Madden curse? Is it true? Does it affect a robot? Who knows? Other than the curse, there are no actual viable concerns for this beast of a player.

Mike Wallace (WR, PIT, 26.5): This man is still holding out. So watch out come draft day. Wallace did very little toward the end of last season and Antonio Brown emerged as a favorite of Ben Roethlisberger. In Wallace's last 9 games, he scored double digits just TWICE! For the consensus top eight wide receiver, he is one to be drafted with caution. He still has lights out potential, but has a moderately high risk component.

Vincent Jackson (WR, TB, 53.8): He has never caught more than 68 passes in a season. Or double digit touchdowns. Or 1,200 yards. A guy that always seems slightly overrated, Jackson now leaves his comfort of Philip Rivers and goes to run-heavy, Josh Freeman led Tampa Bay. Things do not look good, my friends.

Victor Cruz (WR, NYG, 31.8): This is more based on draft position than on talent or production. Cruz has the ability to replicate last year's numbers. But he almost surely will not. He scored on touchdowns last year of 68, 72, 74, 74, and 99 yards. Think he can do that again? I like Cruz and think he can still produce like a top 20 receiver, just not the top 10 where he is currently being drafted.

Andre Johnson (WR, HOU, 14.3): Yup, you read it right. For a guy who has failed to stay healthy the past two seasons, I cannot advise taking him so high this year. He has played just 20 games the past two years and while he has been productive, he has been a headache to deal with. And now Houston has become a run first team, meaning Johnson will have less chances to produce like he once did. I am not saying that Johnson is done by any means, I am just saying he is no longer the Andre we knew and used to draft first of wide receivers.

Vernon Davis (TE, SF, 52.5): He's a great talent hurt by his quarterback Alex Smith. While Smith is by no means a bad quarterback, Davis just does not get the same chances that a Jimmy Graham or even a Jason Witten get. Davis was very inconsistent last year and that is due to him getting mainly underneath throws from Smith. If Smith can air it out more, perhaps Davis will return to the top five. Till further notice, he is just a solid top 10 option.

Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, 67.0): At least he is not being drafted as early as Davis, but Finley was perhaps the most inconsistent of all fantasy players. He was plagued by drops and had only four double digit games. He has ridiculous potential, but still has not reached it.

Stephen Gostowski (K, NE, 110.1): WHY ON EARTH DO PEOPLE PICK KICKERS THIS EARLY? Wait till the LAST ROUND, close your eyes and point at the screen. There, you have your kicker! Last year, if you removed David Akers' season, there was only a 15 point difference between the 1st and 10th kicker! Even with Akers, it was still only 49 points.