Draft Prep: Busts

Cam Newton (QB, CAR, ADP 17.2): He certainly has the talent and the offensive line to not be a bust, but his numbers from last year are simply a long shot. If you could grab him in the third or fourth round, he would be more than worth a pick. But going middle of the second round is way too high to justify a pick for Cam. Rushing touchdowns are very hard to predict and there is almost no way Newton comes close to his 2nd in the NFL 14 rushing touchdowns. According to Christopher Harris' research, quarterbacks who score 6 or more rushing touchdowns in a season average only 2.1 the following season. Luckily for Cam, he is no Michael Vick when it comes to injuries. Instead, a more fair comparison is to Dante Culpepper. This a good thing for the huge, athletic freak who does appear to be fairly durable. While I expect Cam's numbers should decline, the main reason for me labeling him a bust is because of where he is being drafted. But with elite upside and not a ton a downside, Cam will not bust quite to the level that Derek Anderson did.

What? I'm not elite?

Matt Schaub (QB, HOU, 90.0): Those who think Schaub still has elite potential are sorely wrong. Houston is a run-first team now making for far less opportunities for Schaub. Not only is he very injury prone, but his elite target Andre Johnson has not been able to stay on the field either.

If everything is okay, then
 why don't you stop holding out?

Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, JAC, 7.7): Still holding out, MJD is definitely someone to keep on eye on. While the Jags have by no means ever been an offensive juggernaut, having Blaine Gabbert does absolute nothing to take pressure off of MJD. Of the top four running backs, he has the most question marks surrounding him. He is still just 27 years old, but his carries are piling up. He had over 380 touches last year and was probably overworked. And with the holdout still going, MJD is setting himself up to disappoint countless owners.

Jamaal Charles (RB, KC, 26.4): Chalres is an immense talent who has averaged 5.8 yards per carry in his career. But questions about his recovery from a torn ACL and Peyton Hillis in the mix make Charles a less than ideal option. Even if he is at full strength, he will surely lose goaline carries to Hillis. And Charles' explosiveness and open-field running depend so much on his ACL that I do not see Charles being his old self.

Fred Jackson (RB, BUF, 35.0): He will be 31 this year and is recovering from a broken leg. Not only that, but C.J. Spiller excelled in his absence which indicates a major timeshare coming. I expect Jackson to receive the majority of carries, but Spiller will take a huge bite into his production. Do not expect anything close to Jackson's first half of last season. While his wife might not be as hesitant about picking him this year, everyone else should have caution in regards to picking him.

Willis McGahee (RB, DEN, 54.1): McGahee's late-career resurgence turned heads last year. But going from a run-heavy, Tebow-led offense to a Peyton Manning offense will render McGahee useless. He is not a great pass-catching back and is mediocre in pass blocking. Expect other Broncos running backs to take reps and for McGahee's age to catch up to him.

Andre Johnson (WR, HOU, 14.4): Really. I'm serious. For a guy who has played just 20 games in the past two seasons, I am not optimistic. The now run-heavy Texans also have a much better defense which means less catch-up for them and less throwing. I would much rather take Roddy White, Greg Jennings, and even Wes Welker. Taking an early second round pick on Johnson would be unwise and way too risky. If you can get him in the third round, well, then he is a potential steal. But don't be fooled by Johnson. He should no longer be looked at as an obvious top two wideout.

Mike Wallace (WR, PIT, 26.6): Of all my bust candidates, this is the one I feel most strong about. He was Big Ben's second favorite target last year and had an abysmal second half. In the last nine games, he had only two with double digit scoring. He is still holding out and it does not appear to be ending any time soon. Wallace does have number one potential, but is much better suited as a number two receiver this year. And if he gets traded, it will likely not help his value in any way. Stay away from him in drafts.

Vincent Jackson (WR, TB, 53.9): This guy could be labeled a bust almost every year. He almost always seems to be labeled as a near-elite receiver but never produces like one. He has never had more than 70 catches or double digit touchdowns. He now switches from Philip Rivers to Josh Freeman throwing him the ball. And Tampa Bay will be a run-oriented team. He will disappoint like usual. That, you can count on.

Draft Prep: Sleepers

Your sleeper picks. They can make or break your team. Instead of taking a more common name like John Kuhn, Matt Cassell, or Nate Burleson, take someone like Isaiah Pead, Antonio Brown, or Jared Cook. People who took a chance on Aaron Rodgers in his first season as a starter had to be pretty darn happy. And people who took Rob Gronkowski or Cam Newton last year, well, they likely earned themselves a playoff spot. And I won't be making any JaMarcus Russell jokes in this because after all, he has been in a deep sleep, or maybe a hibernation since 2009. Heck, he probably slept from 2007 to 2009 too. That would explain a lot.

But anyways, do your research. Target your guys who will be late rounders. Find those backups to the often injured players and take a chance on them. It will be the difference between a five win season and a eight win season. Here are my sleepers for the 2012 season.

Doug Martin (RB, TB, 78.8): Martin represents a great value pick with an opportunity to shatter expectations. It looks like he is winning the running back battle over LeGarrette Blount and his explosiveness is killer. At this point, he should be receiving the majority of carries as Blount slowly disappears. Blount will most likely get goaline carries, but that doesn't detract from Martin's potential to be one the better rookie running backs in recent years. He is definitely worth a pick after the 6th round.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis (RB, CIN, 59.1): Goodbye Cedric Benson. Hello Cedric Benson 2.0. Green-Ellis, who has scored 24 touchdowns in the past two seasons, is the man I want in all my leagues. Now as the featured back in Cincinnati, you can expect numbers on par with Benson, but hopefully more similar to those of former Rudi Johnson. BGE has yet to fumble in his NFL career and he has a knack for the endzone. According to Matthew Berry, since Marvin Lewis became head coach in 2003, the Bengals running backs have averaged 1,124 yards and 8 touchdowns a season. BGE fits the mold of a Lewis running back and if he puts up those average numbers, well you got yourself a very solid, high-end number 2 running back.

Donald Brown (RB, IND, 100.8): He will get carries. He should be the starter. He just plays on last years most abysmal offense. He also is far from proven but now is his shot. He showed off his explosiveness toward the end of last season and is in a position where he can succeed. If Andrew Luck and the Colts' offense puts it together, Brown will be a major component of it.

Mikel Leshoure (RB, DET, 145.2): Injured his entire rookie season, Leshoure can make a splash if often injured Jahvid Best or Kevin Smith go down. And if, or when they do, Leshore may live up to his high potential out of the University of Illinois.

Isaiah Pead (RB, STL, 166.8): Steven Jackson is slowing down and Pead is coming up. While I think Jackson will still be the man all season, Pead will get some carries and spell Jackson. He also has great hands and will be involved with their passing game.

Evan Royster (RB, WSH, Not Drafted): Like I've said before, I don't want to touch the Washington running backs. Royster ended last year with two stellar 100 yard games but still has Roy Helu ahead of him. Probably. Maybe. Who knows? Only Mike Shanahan. If anything happens to Helu, then it will be time to jump on the Royster train.

Eric Decker (WR, DEN, 72.1): I love this guy just a little bit more than Demaryius Thomas. For one, he is more accustomed to an NFL style offense than Thomas and he runs much better, crisper routes. In an offense with Peyton Manning, that means a lot. Decker has HUGE upside with Manning throwing and he could be a monster in PPR leagues. I'd take Decker over Thomas, and other iffy receivers like Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson, and DeSean Jackson.

Antonio Brown (WR, PIT, 70.4): Also being drafted around Decker, Brown had a superb, under the radar season. He had the second most third down catches last year which means Big Ben looked to him regularly in the clutch. He also had 69 catches and 1,108 yards. Talk about a season no one talked about. With Mike Wallace looking iffier, Brown could actually end up being Roethlisberger's top target (In fact, he had more targets than Wallace last season.) For his draft position, Brown will be a steal and a very solid number 2 receiver.

Reggie Wayne (WR, IND, 105.6): Reggie Wayne is no longer the top-10 Wayne we've seen for years. But with Andrew Luck throwing his way, Wayne can hopefully still produce. Even if Luck doesn't meet expectations, he cannot be much worse than Curtis Painter or Dan Orlovsky. Right? Wayne has lost a step but do not count him out yet. For the record, I'd much rather have him then Michael Crabtree, Justin Blackmon, or Randy Moss. Which also isn't saying much...

Greg Little (WR, CLE, 148.8): Little had over 60 catches for 700 yards last year but only found the endzone twice. With "rookie" Brandon Weeden throwing his way, his numbers should improve slightly. He is the most NFL-looking receiver on their team and could quietly produce a solid season. And if Weeden blows people out of the water, then Little will have lots to do with it.

Randall Cobb (WR, GB, 154.5): Cobb is buried in the depth chart of the most fearsome wide receiver corps of the NFL. But he is expected to have an expanded role as Donald Driver's role diminishes. Cobb shows every sign of an elite playmaker and could find himself as the undisputed number three receiver in Green Bay. And with Aaron Rodgers throwing, that makes for a still pretty solid fantasy receiver.

Vincent Brown (WR, SD, Not Drafted): In his four starts last year, Brown showed flashes of potential and great route running. Robert Meachem and Malcom Floyd are by no means durable players and Brown could find himself as one of Rivers' steady targets. You won't likely have to use a draft pick on him so monitor him early and jump on him.

Jacob Tamme (TE, DEN, 114.3): While cleaning my room, I stumbled upon a Jacob Tamme game worn jersey card from Kentucky. Thrilled at my find, I remember how enamored I was with a tight end no kid in Illinois should have ever heard about. But with Tamme teaming up with Manning in Denver, there is great potential for a solid season. Remember when Dallas Clark got injured and Tamme took over? Now Tamme and Manning have time to gel and work together all season. I expect a top 8 season this year.

Fred Davis (TE, WSH, 103.9): With RGIII throwing his way, Davis might finally break out. Chris Cooley is almost completely out of the mix and it is Davis' time to shine. He started to have a breakout season last year till he was suspended the remainder of the season for marijuana charges. This year, take a shot on him as he may even outproduce Jermichael Finley.

Jared Cook (TE, TEN, 127.3): You know how Finley is supposed to be some freak athlete? Well, let's compare his combine numbers to Cook. Finley had a 4.82 40 time and a 27.5 vertical. Cook had a 4.49 time and a 41.0 vertical! Finley looks like a child compared to Cook. If either Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker produce, Cook will be in for a stellar season.

Jermaine Gresham (TE, CIN, 144.7): This is a surprisingly deep year for tight ends eh? Last year, Gresham had 56 catches for nearly 600 yards and 6 touchdowns. As he continues to click with Dalton, Gresham should only get better.



Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT, ADP 81.2): Not that Big Ben is unknown to many, but this could be a year we he solidly plays himself into the top 10. Last year he was 13th among quarterbacks and this year he is a borderline 12 team league starter. But with Rashard Mendenhall expected to miss most, if not all of the season, expect Ben to passing more. Assuming Mike Wallace mans up and comes back, Ben will have him, emerging Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders to throw to. Expect Big Ben to sneak into the top 10 this year for quarterbacks.

Michael Vick (QB, PHI, 31.9): Is he really even a sleeper? Well, kind of. After last years fall from fantasy domination, Vick is being a bit undervalued this year. Despite missing three whole games last year, Vick still finished 11th among quarterbacks and had seven 20 point games. And while no one expected him to replicate his 9 rushing touchdowns of 2010, no one expected him to have just 1 either. So expect an increase of rushing touchdowns and hopefully and injury free season. Last year, I said Vick was not worthy of the number one pick Matthew Berry hyped him to be, but this year, he is clearly worth his draft value.

Tim Tebow (QB, NYJ, 137.6): Not too many backup quarterbacks are the 22nd quarterback taken in drafts. But Tebow does have a real shot at eventually taking the starting job in New York. And that's not a credit to Tebow's passing skills, but his running ability, and Mark Sanchez's mediocrity. Tebow is the only NFL quarterback to run for 6 touchdowns in consecutive seasons and has no reason not to do it again. We saw Tebow be a productive fantasy player last year with 15 points or more in 8 of his 12 games. Will we see some more Tebow time this year?

Draft Prep: Players to Avoid

Avoid these players. Whether it's for injury concerns, fluke seasons, or being drafted too high, I would recommend a rethink if you are wanting to draft any of these guys.

As 1 Thessalonians 5:22 says, "Avoid every kind of evil". While these players are not evil by any means, the things they may do to your team may seem evil. And while you are at it, avoid using Bible verses out of context. Psh, I mean, who does that? But seriously, those who use individual verses to prove points miss the context and point of passages. In order to not do that, it helps to use the ladder of abstraction, which helps us find an underlying universal principal in context. For instance, when there is foot washing in the Bible, it is not proper to extrapolate and say that we, in today's culture, need to wash our neighbors' feet. Instead, we see how foot washing was a way to keep your house clean. We also can take away the theme of serving one another with humility and being hospitable.

Um, well, how does this connect at all? It does not really. But for those who find research saying that  Eric Dickerson tanked after a 380 plus carry season does not necessarily mean that Maurice Jones-Drew cannot handle it. Times are different. Athletes are built differently. In short, the game has changed. So when it comes to finding research about current situations, like Adrian Peterson's torn ACL, it can be good to look into the past for reference. Just do not hold it as truth for what will happen next.

So. Back to the actual point of this article. Here are players you should avoid on draft day.

Peyton Manning (QB, DEN, ADP 42.1): For a career filled with twice as many indoor games as outdoor games, Manning now faces 15 outdoor games this year. His outdoor numbers, while not terrible, do in fact drop significantly from his indoor numbers. That plus his age, his neck, and a brand new team makes me want to avoid Manning this year. While being the eight quarterback selected sounds like a bargain, there are much better, surefire options.

Eli Manning (QB, NYG, ADP 31.9): Both Mannings make this list as this year Eli is actually being overvalued. While he did produce a stellar 5,000 yard season last year, he still was one of the more inconsistent quarterbacks. He had six games with under 15 points and finished the year with only 29 touchdowns. Good, but not great. Of the eight other quarterbacks to ever throw for 5,000 yards in a season, they averaged 41 touchdowns. So the question: where were Manning's?

Matt Stafford (QB, DET, ADP 13.0): For a guy going borderline first round, I do not want to touch him. No doubt he has the talent to be a top five quarterback. And he has Calvin Johnson. But, he has played only one full season in his career, has a poor offensive line, and little running game. Do I want to pick a player in the first round based on one great season? Nope.

JaMarcus Russell (QB, Biggest Losers, ADP (average donuts per day) 12): Avoid him. He may just eat you, too.

Darren McFadden (RB, OAK, ADP 25.5): The thing about McFadden is that he is one the best fantasy running backs out there. The other thing is that he can rarely stay on the field. If you are feeling dicey, then McFadden could be one of the biggest steals this year. He is the epitome of a high risk, high reward player.

Frank Gore (RB, SF, 35.2): No longer viewed as a number one running back, owners should see Gore as a solid number two. Gore finally lasted a full season, but saw his workload decrease as the season went on. That said, he now has Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James, and Kendall Hunter all in the mix to steal carries. Don't be surprised if there is another decline in Gore's carries and productivity.

Roy Helu (RB, WSH, 52.6): I love this guy. He showed immense potential in his rookie campaign by compiling over 1,000 all-purpose yards to go along with 49 catches. In PPR leagues, he will be a great option. But anytime Mike Shanahan is your coach, we actually have no idea who will get the bulk of carries. For all I know, Terrell David could come out of retirement and Shanahan will give him the carries. Any Redskins' running back is risky, although Helu hopes to break the Shanahan curse and be the go-to guy.

Willis McGahee (RB, DEN, 54.3): Remember Joseph Addai in the high powered Colts' offense. Remember his incredible numbers? . . . Oh, wait. Well, McGahee, who turns 31 this year, could end up a replica of Addai, only worse. McGahee does not catch well and is poor in pass protection, which means he may not do too much this year with Manning. Before you think McGahee will ride on coattails of last year, think again.

Calvin Johnson (WR, DET, 6.8): Madden curse? Is it true? Does it affect a robot? Who knows? Other than the curse, there are no actual viable concerns for this beast of a player.

Mike Wallace (WR, PIT, 26.5): This man is still holding out. So watch out come draft day. Wallace did very little toward the end of last season and Antonio Brown emerged as a favorite of Ben Roethlisberger. In Wallace's last 9 games, he scored double digits just TWICE! For the consensus top eight wide receiver, he is one to be drafted with caution. He still has lights out potential, but has a moderately high risk component.

Vincent Jackson (WR, TB, 53.8): He has never caught more than 68 passes in a season. Or double digit touchdowns. Or 1,200 yards. A guy that always seems slightly overrated, Jackson now leaves his comfort of Philip Rivers and goes to run-heavy, Josh Freeman led Tampa Bay. Things do not look good, my friends.

Victor Cruz (WR, NYG, 31.8): This is more based on draft position than on talent or production. Cruz has the ability to replicate last year's numbers. But he almost surely will not. He scored on touchdowns last year of 68, 72, 74, 74, and 99 yards. Think he can do that again? I like Cruz and think he can still produce like a top 20 receiver, just not the top 10 where he is currently being drafted.

Andre Johnson (WR, HOU, 14.3): Yup, you read it right. For a guy who has failed to stay healthy the past two seasons, I cannot advise taking him so high this year. He has played just 20 games the past two years and while he has been productive, he has been a headache to deal with. And now Houston has become a run first team, meaning Johnson will have less chances to produce like he once did. I am not saying that Johnson is done by any means, I am just saying he is no longer the Andre we knew and used to draft first of wide receivers.

Vernon Davis (TE, SF, 52.5): He's a great talent hurt by his quarterback Alex Smith. While Smith is by no means a bad quarterback, Davis just does not get the same chances that a Jimmy Graham or even a Jason Witten get. Davis was very inconsistent last year and that is due to him getting mainly underneath throws from Smith. If Smith can air it out more, perhaps Davis will return to the top five. Till further notice, he is just a solid top 10 option.

Jermichael Finley (TE, GB, 67.0): At least he is not being drafted as early as Davis, but Finley was perhaps the most inconsistent of all fantasy players. He was plagued by drops and had only four double digit games. He has ridiculous potential, but still has not reached it.

Stephen Gostowski (K, NE, 110.1): WHY ON EARTH DO PEOPLE PICK KICKERS THIS EARLY? Wait till the LAST ROUND, close your eyes and point at the screen. There, you have your kicker! Last year, if you removed David Akers' season, there was only a 15 point difference between the 1st and 10th kicker! Even with Akers, it was still only 49 points.

2012 Running Back Tiers

Tier 1: The Elite
1. Arian Foster
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Ray Rice

Who I want the most: LeSean McCoy. I love Arian Foster. I love Ray Rice. But like last year, I really love LeSean McCoy. And after these guys, well, let's just say the running backs are a crap-shoot. These are hands down the elite, the most proven, and the closest to a surefire running back you will get this year. So why McCoy? In the explosive Eagles offense, McCoy piled up 1,600 all purpose yards and twenty touchdowns. Even if his touchdowns decrease, he will still be a top five back. "Shady" had only 273 carries last year and is just 24 years old. He also does not have a Ben Tate guy who could steal his carries. And while Rice might be the safest choice here, I'll take McCoy and his ridiculously high upside.

Tier 2: The "Sigh, I Don't Get an Elite Running Back..."
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
5. Chris Johnson
6. Ryan Mathews
7. Matt Forte

Who I want the most: Matt Forte. As consistent as MJD has been, this could be the year he falls off. MJD just tallied a 380 touch season and to his dismay, he has Blaine Gabbert as his quarterback. Meanwhile, Forte now heads up what could be the best Chicago offense in years. Even if Michael Bush takes away some carries, Forte will still be the center of attention. Last year, Forte was on pace to lead the league in yards from scrimmage and he has the chance to do the same. As sad as I am to recommend drafting a Bears player, Forte is your guy.

Bust alert: Chris Johnson. For a guy who ran for 2,000 yards in 2009, he has been on a steady decline since. His yards per carry have gone from 5.6 to 4.3 to 4.0. Will he ever run again like he did in 2009? Maybe his "get away from the cops speed" will return. Or maybe he will disappoint multitudes of owners again.

Tier 3: These Guys Might Really Be My Best Running Back?
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. DeMarco Murray
10. Steven Jackson
11. Trent Richardson

Who I want the most: Steven Jackson. He may actually go a round later than most of these guys and he should be a pretty safe pick. Then again, no one outside the top 3 is safe this year. He isn't flashy, nor is his offensive line any good, but he gets the job done. Only Isaiah Peed can take away carries but, Jackson will still be the man. Richardson has the highest upside here as will be the best playmaker on the Browns. With that said, he could be line for a Adrian Peterson rookie-like year. Then again, he is on the Browns...

Tier 4: The Hospital Bed
12. Darren McFadden
13. Jamaal Charles
14. Adrian Peterson
15. Fred Jackson

Who I want the most: Adrian Peterson. He's a freak. He's a monster. He can overcome a little ACL injury. Well, maybe. If you take a look at previous great running backs before and after ACL injuries, then you know things do not look bright. But of all the players here, Peterson is your guy. Even if he doesn't start the season healthy, he will be back sooner than later and can put up his usual numbers. Charles is splitting with Peyton Hillis. McFadden, I'm pretty sure has a spot reserved in the Oakland hospital. And Fred Jackson now has C.J. Spiller to split carries with. Go with Peterson. And pray. Lots.

Tier 5: The Okee Dokee
16. Michael Turner
17. Frank Gore
18. Roy Helu
19. Darren Sproles
20. Ahmad Bradshaw

Who I want the most: Michael Turner. Many are predicting a steep decline for Turner. While the age is there and the carries are piling up, I do not see Turner declining as much as people think. Atlanta is still a run first offense and Turner has been stellar the past two seasons. Gore is risky. So is Bradshaw. And my goodness, I do not think I will draft another Redskins running back as long as Mike Shanahan is there. Roy Helu looks like the man which probably means he is indeed not the man. And Darren Sproles is a fantastic PPR option and just an average standard league option.

Tier 6: The Cedric Benson Tier
21. Benjarvus Green-Ellis
22. Reggie Bush
23. Shonn Greene
24. Jonathan Stewart
25. Ben Tate

Who I want the most: BGE. Hands down. He will get plenty of carries and will "thrive" like Benson in the Bengals pound it relentlessly offense. He has yet to fumble in his career and in the past two seasons, he has 24 touchdowns! You can definitely expect Benson-like numbers or better this season.

Bust alert: Shonn Greene and Reggie Bush. Bush has Daniel Thomas AND Lamar Miller, both of whom may cut into his carries. And Shonne Greene. Man, I'm starting to dislike this guy. My favorite sleeper the past two seasons were met with nothing spectacular. He did end the season strong, but with Tim Tebow there, he may actually lose some goaline carries. Of course, the year I predict him to do nothing is the year he will break out. Just wait, feel free to take him just because I said he will continue to be the worthless underachieving running back he is.

Tier 7: The Uninspiring
26. Jahvid Best
27. Wilis McGahee
28. Isaac Redman
29. DeAngelo Williams
30. Beanie Wells

Who I want the most: Isaac Redman. None of these guys may get through a full season. Best is the definition of a boom or bust player. McGahee is the definition of a 31 year old running back. Wells is a lock for less than 16 games and Williams will be running alongside Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert. Did I convince you on Redman?

Tier 8: The Back-ups
31. Mark Ingram
32. Stevan Ridley
33. C.J. Spiller
34. Peyton Hillis
35. Michael Bush
36. Doug Martin

Who I want the most: Doug Martin. If only LeGarrette Blount would just go. Or fumble the ball away lots like last year. Martin has perhaps the highest upside here given he will get a good chunk of the carries. But all the guys here are great options especially if injuries happen to their counterparts.

Tier 9: What? There're Actually Starters Here?
37. James Starks
38. Donald Brown
39. Toby Gerhart
40. LeGarrette Blount
41. David Wilson
42. Daniel Thomas

Who I want the most: Donald Brown. He could be a nice surprise this season. If Andrew Luck and the offense get rolling, Brown figures to play a key role. Of all these guys, he has little competition and could be a great late round flier.

Tier 10: The Rest
43. Kevin Smith
44. Pierre Thomas
45. Shane Vereen
46. Brandon Jacobs
47. Jonathan Dwyer
48. Ryan Williams
49. Felix Jones
50. Bernard Scott

Who I want the most: Kevin Smith. He had his out of nowhere game last year against Carolina, then managed just two okay games after. He still has the highest upside of the bunch and is emerging as the possible starter in Detroit. Take a chance.

Early 2012 Tight End Tiers

Tier 1: Gronk
1. Rob Gronkowski

Who I want the most: Brandon Manumaleuna. Just kidding, but I always get a kick out of his name. Last year, Gronkowski may have been the biggest difference maker of ANY fantasy player. Take away all his touchdowns and he is still the number TWO tight end! He ranked right behind Calvin Johnson for all WR/TE and would give you the biggest positional advantage in fantasy football. He is worth a first round pick (although I still have reservations in taking a tight end in the first) and he, barring injury, will without a doubt be a top five tight end.

Tier 2: The Elite
2. Jimmy Graham
3. Antonio Gates

Who I want the most: Jimmy Graham. Graham was sixth among all receivers in targets last year and has freak Antonio Gates-like potential. And speaking of Gates, injury concerns and Philip Rivers throwing to the other team concerns make him a moderate risk this year. For those who do not want to use a first rounder on Gronk, Graham is a great option in the late second or early third round.

Tier 3: The Near Elite
4. Jason Witten
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Vernon Davis

Who I want the most: Jermichael Finley. None of these options are nearly as appealing as last year but they round out the cream of the crop. Finley has all the potential in the world, but has been a disappointment. His drops are as aggravating as ever and he was a mark of inconsistency. He had only four double digit games but still ranked as the number five tight end. He has the highest ceiling of this group and hopefully he does not actually "freestyle" too much this year.

Tier 4: The Solid
7. Aaron Hernandez
8. Jacob Tamme
9. Tony Gonzalez
10. Brandon Pettigrew

Who I want the most: Jacob Tamme. I'm much higher on Tamme than others but I think he will have a fantastic year with as Manning's top tight end. Remember when Dallas Clark went down and Tamme stepped up? Well, now Tamme has a chance to really gel with Manning, and he will be one of Manning's top options. Take a chance on him as you can get him much later than other tight ends. And as we have seen in many of the past years, once we get out of the top five, most tight ends will produce almost the same.

Tier 5: The Rest
11. Fred Davis
12. Jared Cook
13. Owen Daniels
14. Dustin Keller
15. Jermaine Gresham
16. Kellen Winslow
17. Lance Kendricks
18. Brent Celek
19. Coby Fleener
20. Greg Olsen

Who I want the most: Owen Daniels. Even though the Texans have gravitated towards a run-heavy offense, Daniels is the proven and still has great potential. 

Sleeper: Jermaine Gresham. Gresham was very solid last year and can blossom as Andy Dalton continues to improve. Take a chance on him late if you are not very confident in your number one tight end.

Deep Sleeper: Lance Kendricks. He has flashed potential but never really had a chance to prove himself. On a team that lacks superstar receivers, this could finally be Kendricks' year. If Sam Bradford bounces back, Kendricks should produce like a top 12 tight end.